Mississippi State

Profile vs. FBS, 2022

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1044th
  Defense+0.0282nd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense46.4%80th
  Defense39.2%76th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.085th
  Defense+1.2738th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense−0.039th
  Defense+0.0654th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1734th
  Defense+0.0788th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense52.6%85th
  Defense44.7%75th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense29.9%41st
  Defense28.5%68th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.0035th
  Defense2.7885th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.4%40th
  Defense24.0%94th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.7%52nd
  Defense17.7%72nd

Percentiles among the 131 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2022

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Mississippi State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   MEM
2. W
   ARIZ
3. L
   LSU
4. W
   BGSU
5. W
   TA&M
6. W
   ARK
7. L
   UK
8. L
   ALA
9. W
   AUB
10. L
    UGA
11. W
    ETSU
12. W
    MISS
13. W
    ILL

Bars above the line: better than expected for Mississippi State.

Players, 2022

1. Will RogersQB450 plays · +0.144 pts/play · 64th of 234 QBs
   1.22WAR0.15 to 2.06
2. Woody MarksRB128 plays · +0.130 pts/play · 91st of 384 RBs
   0.31WAR0.21 to 0.42
3. Dillon JohnsonRB112 plays · +0.134 pts/play · 104th of 384 RBs
   0.28WAR0.19 to 0.36
4. Rufus HarveyWR37 plays · +0.187 pts/play · 151st of 455 WRs
   0.13WAR0.09 to 0.16
5. Rara ThomasWR31 plays · +0.220 pts/play · 159th of 455 WRs
   0.13WAR0.08 to 0.18
6. Austin WilliamsWR30 plays · +0.201 pts/play · 191st of 455 WRs
   0.11WAR0.07 to 0.15
7. Lideatrick GriffinWR29 plays · +0.184 pts/play · 218th of 455 WRs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.14
8. Jaden WalleyWR34 plays · +0.153 pts/play · 220th of 455 WRs
   0.10WAR0.04 to 0.15

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Mississippi State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2022

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  72672629th of 129Roster talent: 726, 29th of 129 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  22222222nd of 129Recruiting: 222, 22nd of 129 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  42%42%93rd of 128Returning production: 42%, 93rd of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +15.4+15.419th of 129SP+ rating: +15.4, 19th of 129 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 129 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2022

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Mississippi State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 1 clear-cut ones account for 0.02 of the 0.07 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at ILLQ3 12:10 4th & 1 at MSST 35, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
2. at LSUQ3 13:45 4th & 2 at MSST 44, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
3. at LSUQ3 13:29 4th & 2 at MSST 44, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
4. vs AUBQ1 3:45 4th & 2 at AUB 45, up 10Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
5. vs AUBQ3 11:12 4th & 6 at MSST 27, up 18Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.5 pts
6. at UKQ2 0:47 4th & 8 at UK 35, up 3Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.4 pts
7. at LSUQ2 0:26 4th & 2 at MSST 49, up 6Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.3 pts
8. at ALAQ3 8:06 4th & 12 at ALA 31, down 24Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.3 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2022

32nd of 131 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Mississippi State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   MEM
2. W

   ARIZ
3. L

   LSU
4. W

   BGSU
5. W

   TA&M
6. W

   ARK
7. L

   UK
8. L

   ALA
9. W

   AUB
10. L

    UGA
11. W

    ETSU
12. W

    MISS
13. W

    ILL

What moved it, 2022

Every game starts at Mississippi State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.40
• Clock+0.11
• Timeouts−0.24
• Other−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.55

Game by game

• MEMW 49-23 vs MEM86% → 100%Before kickoff +36 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +17
• ARIZW 39-17 at ARIZ77% → 100%Before kickoff +27 · On the field +22: Scoreboard +30, Clock +1
• LSUL 16-31 at LSU57% → 1%Before kickoff +7 · On the field −56: Scoreboard −45, Timeouts −1
• BGSUW 45-14 vs BGSU97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +5
• TA&MW 42-24 vs TA&M56% → 99%Before kickoff +6 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +40, Clock +1
• ARKW 40-17 vs ARK70% → 100%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +30: Scoreboard +32, Clock −1
• UKL 17-27 at UK56% → 3%Before kickoff +6 · On the field −53: Scoreboard −39, Timeouts −3
• ALAL 6-30 at ALA7% → 0%Before kickoff −43 · On the field −7: Scoreboard −12, Possession & field position +1
• AUBW 39-33 vs AUB79% → 86%Before kickoff +29 · On the field +7: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts −17
• UGAL 19-45 vs UGA11% → 0%Before kickoff −39 · On the field −11: Scoreboard −17
• ETSUW 56-7 vs ETSU99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• MISSW 24-22 at MISS47% → 92%Before kickoff −3 · On the field +45: Scoreboard +53, Clock +2
• ILLW 19-10 at ILL59% → 93%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +46, Clock +2

Points of win probability, from Mississippi State's side.

Closest call

MSST 38-35 ARK (2025) - Mississippi State dropped to a 6.1% win probability before pulling it out.