Mississippi State

Profile vs. FBS, 2016

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2083rd
  Defense+0.1823rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense45.2%68th
  Defense43.2%55th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2465th
  Defense+1.2915th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2596th
  Defense+0.0846th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1438th
  Defense+0.2813th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense49.9%69th
  Defense46.3%65th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.0%50th
  Defense37.0%15th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.3694th
  Defense2.9750th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense16.3%89th
  Defense20.9%62nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense15.8%54th
  Defense15.1%30th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2016

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Mississippi State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   USA
2. W
   SC
3. L
   LSU
4. W
   MASS
5. L
   AUB
6. L
   BYU
7. L
   UK
8. W
   SAM
9. W
   TA&M
10. L
    ALA
11. L
    ARK
12. W
    MISS
13. W
    M-OH

Bars above the line: better than expected for Mississippi State.

Players, 2016

1. Nick FitzgeraldQB376 plays · +0.274 pts/play · 25th of 218 QBs
   1.93WAR1.31 to 2.67
2. Aeris WilliamsRB109 plays · +0.172 pts/play · 98th of 347 RBs
   0.35WAR0.25 to 0.46
3. Fred RossWR80 plays · +0.165 pts/play · 47th of 417 WRs
   0.25WAR0.13 to 0.36
4. Brandon HollowayRB50 plays · +0.135 pts/play · 228th of 347 RBs
   0.13WAR0.08 to 0.17
5. Malik DearWR38 plays · +0.134 pts/play · 229th of 417 WRs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.13
6. Donald GrayWR45 plays · +0.104 pts/play · 248th of 417 WRs
   0.09WAR0.04 to 0.13
7. Westin GravesPK13 plays · +0.312 pts/play · 79th of 116 kickers
   0.08WAR0.03 to 0.12
8. Ashton ShumpertRB33 plays · +0.078 pts/play · 266th of 347 RBs
   0.05WAR0.02 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Mississippi State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2016

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  67967928th of 128Roster talent: 679, 28th of 128 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  21621626th of 128Recruiting: 216, 26th of 128 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  33%33%118th of 128Returning production: 33%, 118th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +5.4+5.456th of 128SP+ rating: +5.4, 56th of 128 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 128 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2016

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Mississippi State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.09 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at UKQ3 9:37 4th & 2 at UK 19, up 2Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.0 pts
2. vs TA&MQ4 11:17 4th & 1 at MSST 22, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
3. vs ARKQ2 10:45 4th & 1 at MSST 27, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
4. vs M-OHQ3 12:35 4th & 3 at M-OH 47, down 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
5. at MASSQ4 10:24 4th & 2 at MASS 45, up 13Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.3 pts
6. vs AUBQ2 6:28 4th & 1 at MSST 19, down 21Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
7. at BYUQ3 7:26 4th & 7 at BYU 38, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts
8. at BYUQ2 1:21 4th & 1 at MSST 23, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2016

87th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Mississippi State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   USA
2. W

   SC
3. L

   LSU
4. W

   MASS
5. L

   AUB
6. L

   BYU
7. L

   UK
8. W

   SAM
9. W

   TA&M
10. L

    ALA
11. L

    ARK
12. W

    MISS
13. W

    M-OH

What moved it, 2016

Every game starts at Mississippi State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.31
• Possession & field position−0.05
• Clock−0.18
• Timeouts+0.19
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.16

Game by game

• USAL 20-21 vs USA97% → 8%Before kickoff +47 · On the field −90: Scoreboard −41, Clock −3
• SCW 27-14 vs SC69% → 98%Before kickoff +19 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +30, Timeouts +2
• LSUL 20-23 at LSU13% → 5%Before kickoff −37 · On the field −8: Scoreboard −18, Timeouts −1
• MASSW 47-35 at MASS95% → 97%Before kickoff +45 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +14, Clock +1
• AUBL 14-38 vs AUB47% → 1%Before kickoff −3 · On the field −46: Scoreboard −49, Clock −2
• BYUL 21-28 at BYU36% → 9%Before kickoff −14 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −28, Timeouts +15
• UKL 38-40 at UK48% → 5%Before kickoff −2 · On the field −43: Scoreboard −34, Possession & field position −1
• SAMW 56-41 vs SAM93% → 99%Before kickoff +43 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +12, Timeouts +1
• TA&MW 35-28 vs TA&M18% → 97%Before kickoff −32 · On the field +80: Scoreboard +44, Timeouts +3
• ALAL 3-51 at ALA3% → 0%Before kickoff −47 · On the field −3: Scoreboard −6
• ARKL 42-58 vs ARK48% → 1%Before kickoff −2 · On the field −47: Scoreboard −50, Clock −2
• MISSW 55-20 at MISS22% → 100%Before kickoff −28 · On the field +78: Scoreboard +69, Clock +2
• M-OHW 17-16 vs M-OH76% → 93%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +18: Scoreboard +25, Timeouts +1

Points of win probability, from Mississippi State's side.

Closest call

MSST 38-35 ARK (2025) - Mississippi State dropped to a 6.1% win probability before pulling it out.