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TA&M

Texas A&M 28 at Mississippi State 35

MSST
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+3.8MSST 97.4%Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds for aTD, (Westin Graves KICK)AWAY 21 - HOME 35 · Q4 3:08
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:08 · Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 171Pregame prior−1.9Home team on offense+28.8Score differential+12.1Garbage-time factor+14.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+4.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:03: Trevor Knight run for 19 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +5.3 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:53: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 60 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +10.0 pts (now 46%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:54: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +21.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:42: Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 54 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +13.8 pts (now 27%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:33: Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK) — TA&M win probability +11.9 pts (now 15%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7TA&M made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 12:30TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 37, tied
    Close callPunted · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:10TA&M 4th & 2 at TA&M 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:52TA&M 4th & 12 at TA&M 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:34MSST 4th & 12 at TA&M 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%−0.7
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:04TA&M 4th & 1 at TA&M 24, down 7
    Close callPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%−0.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:16TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%−1.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:17TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:19MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 37, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−2.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:29MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:53TA&M 4th & 5 at MSST 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    21.0%−9.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:01MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 20, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−2.0
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:51MSST 4th & 9 at TA&M 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.0%
    84% to make
    Punt
    68.3%−10.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:32TA&M 4th & 5 at TA&M 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.9%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:18TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 40, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.7%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:17MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 22, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.2%−1.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:33TA&M 4th & 2 at MSST 4, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−2.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:27MSST 4th & 6 at TA&M 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    92.8%
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TA&M made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:18MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:36MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:03TA&M Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:53MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:54MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:42TA&M Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:08MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:33TA&M Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:1882% → 81%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
17.6%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q1 14:41
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+3
17.7%
Keith Ford run for 3 yds to the TexAM 12Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+18
18.0%
Trevor Knight run for 18 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
18.1%
Keith Ford run for 7 yds to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
18.3%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 3
OWN 37
0
18.5%
Keith Ford run for no gain to the TexAM 37Similar
Q1 12:30
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
18.8%
Shane Tripucka punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
1 play · 74 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+74
19.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 74 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5080% → 80%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
19.7%
Keith Ford run for 6 yds to the TexAM 19Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+2
19.8%
Keith Ford run for 2 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
Q1 11:17
3RD & 2
OWN 21
0
20.3%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q1 11:10
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
20.4%
Shane Tripucka punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4INT
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:2321% → 22%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
20.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 10:44
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
21.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+23
21.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 23 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+18
21.5%
Malik Dear run for 18 yds to the TexAM 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
21.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the TexAM 15Similar
Q1 9:31
2ND & 8
OPP 15
0
22.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted, touchback. Nick Harvey return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 8 yds · 1:2878% → 77%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
21.8%
Keith Ford run for 4 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q1 8:59
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+6
22.0%
Keith Ford run for 6 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
22.6%
Trevor Knight run for 3 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
22.7%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 7
OWN 33
0
23.0%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q1 7:58
4TH & 7
OWN 33
-5
23.2%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the TexAM 28Similar
Q1 7:52
4TH & 12
OWN 28
0
23.4%
Shane Tripucka punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:1123% → 31%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
23.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 8 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 7:21
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+5
24.0%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Defensive Offside (Daylon Mack) to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+22
24.3%
Aeris Williams run for 22 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
24.8%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 27Similar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+4
25.0%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+17
25.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 17 yds to the TexAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
26.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jesse JacksonSimilar
Q1 5:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
26.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the TexAM 4Similar
Q1 4:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
26.3%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Daeshon Hall) to the TexAM 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
30.8%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 7TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:1771% → 72%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
29.1%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
29.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Speedy Noil for 8 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
30.5%
Trayveon Williams run for 8 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 2
OWN 44
-3
30.4%
Trayveon Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 41Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+9
32.2%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
50
+5
31.9%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 5 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 2:06
2ND & 5
OPP 45
-10
32.1%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Offensive Holding (Erik McCoy) to the TexAM 45Similar
Q1 1:42
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+11
33.6%
Trevor Knight run for 11 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q1 1:05
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+9
33.5%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Christian Kirk for 9 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
33.2%
Trayveon Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 0:22
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+12
33.7%
Trevor Knight pass complete to Speedy Noil for 12 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
28.4%
Trevor Knight run for 19 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 2:2631% → 33%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
30.8%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
30.8%
Keith Mixon run for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
31.6%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
32.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 17 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
33.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the TexAM 45Similar
Q2 12:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-2
34.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 47Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 12
OPP 47
0
33.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
32.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1167% → 65%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
33.4%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 18Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 7
OWN 18
0
33.6%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 7
OWN 18
+6
34.8%
Jake Hubenak run for 6 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q2 11:04
4TH & 1
OWN 24
+9
35.5%
Shane Tripucka punt for 45 yds , Donald Gray returns for 9 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
1 play · 60 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 10:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+60
45.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 60 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2257% → 56%
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.8%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q2 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
43.0%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q2 10:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
43.6%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 10:16
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+1
44.1%
Shane Tripucka punt for 48 yds , Donald Gray returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12TD
14 plays · 72 yds · 6:1046% → 77%
Q2 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
46.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+1
46.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 1 yd to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+2
47.6%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
49.9%
Keith Mixon run for 2 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
48.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+17
49.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 17 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
51.7%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+3
52.7%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+3
53.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the TexAM 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
54.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 3 yds to the TexAM 22Similar
Q2 5:01
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
54.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q2 4:54
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+14
54.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 14 yds to the TexAM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
56.0%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 7Similar
Q2 3:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
77.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3329% → 27%
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
71.1%
Trevor Knight pass incomplete to Trayveon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
71.8%
Trevor Knight run for 3 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
72.1%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
73.0%
Shane Tripucka punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT RETURN TD
10 plays · 23 yds · 2:4478% → 61%
Q2 3:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
77.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 2:45
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+6
78.0%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
79.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
80.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
80.4%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
81.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jamaal Clayborn) to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+7
81.4%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 0:46
2ND & 13
OWN 37
0
82.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 13
OWN 37
0
82.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 0:19
4TH & 13
OWN 37
+93
61.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 56 yds , Christian Kirk returns for 93 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0065% → 65%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
65.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 1:2562% → 62%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.3%
Malik Dear run for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 14:26
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
62.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 9 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
63.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-2
63.4%
Brandon Holloway run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+2
63.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 2 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 13:29
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
62.4%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 52 yds, downed at the TexAM 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17MISSED FG
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:2336% → 34%
Q3 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
63.7%
Trayveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexAM 16Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
64.5%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the TexAM 16Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+16
65.9%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 16 yds to the TexAM 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
64.6%
Christian Kirk run for no gain to the TexAM 32Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+54
65.6%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 54 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
61.7%
Trayveon Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 1
OPP 5
0
62.0%
Trayveon Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 5Similar
Q3 10:42
3RD & 1
OPP 5
-4
64.0%
Jake Hubenak sacked by Mark McLaurin for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 9Similar
Q3 9:53
4TH & 5
OPP 9
+27
66.5%
Daniel LaCamera 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4072% → 70%
Q3 9:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
71.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
72.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
71.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
70.4%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Christian Kirk at the TexAM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:5732% → 31%
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
68.2%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 4 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+1
68.1%
Keith Ford run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:53
3RD & 5
50
-2
68.9%
Jake Hubenak sacked by Johnathan Calvin for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 48 Jake Hubenak fumbled, forced by Johnathan Calvin, recovered by MisSt Braxton Hoyett , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 34 yds · 1:4977% → 78%
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
77.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+22
77.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 22 yds to the TexAM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
77.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Justin Johnson) to the TexAM 20Similar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
78.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q3 6:43
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+1
78.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the TexAM 19Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+5
77.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 5 yds to the TexAM 14Similar
Q3 5:51
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+32
77.6%
Westin Graves 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1126% → 22%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
74.5%
Jake Hubenak run for 3 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
75.3%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 2 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q3 4:39
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
77.1%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q3 4:32
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
77.8%
Shane Tripucka punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Donald Gray at the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22INT
7 plays · 57 yds · 3:1881% → 88%
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
80.7%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+4
81.6%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
82.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+8
83.3%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
86.3%
Aeris Williams run for 16 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+14
87.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 14 yds to the TexAM 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
88.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted, touchback. Donovan Wilson return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:4018% → 15%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
82.1%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 20 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
80.9%
Keith Ford run for 4 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-2
82.8%
Jake Hubenak run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 42Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-2
83.7%
Jake Hubenak run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 40Similar
Q4 14:18
4TH & 10
OWN 40
0
85.4%
Shane Tripucka punt for 59 yds, downed at the MisSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:5189% → 91%
Q4 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+7
88.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 7 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 3
OWN 8
+5
88.7%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
89.3%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q4 12:47
2ND & 8
OWN 15
-5
89.8%
Malik Dear run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 10Similar
Q4 11:44
3RD & 13
OWN 10
+12
90.5%
Aeris Williams run for 12 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 11:17
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
90.6%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TexAM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:2814% → 27%
Q4 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
86.4%
Trayveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 46Similar
Q4 10:42
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+54
72.6%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 54 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26TD
16 plays · 73 yds · 7:2081% → 97%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
80.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 9 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 10:08
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+2
82.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 2 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
82.9%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+3
84.0%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+4
84.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
85.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
87.2%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q4 6:43
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
87.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the TexAM 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
88.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q4 5:40
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+11
89.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the TexAM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
90.0%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the TexAM 15Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+3
91.8%
Keith Mixon run for 3 yds to the TexAM 12Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+8
92.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 8 yds to the TexAM 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 27TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:275% → 15%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.9%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Trayveon Williams for no gain to the TexAM 25Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
95.0%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Speedy Noil for 16 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+47
94.4%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 47 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
93.3%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q4 2:03
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
93.4%
Jake Hubenak run for 3 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+5
93.9%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 5 yds to the MisSt 4Similar
Q4 1:33
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+4
84.7%
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:5896% → 96%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
95.6%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the TexAM 46Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-2
96.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 48 Nick Fitzgerald fumbled, recovered by MisSt Nick FitzgeraldSimilar
Q4 1:13
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+4
96.4%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
96.3%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 29INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:077% → 7%
Q4 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.2%
Jake Hubenak pass incomplete to Christian KirkSimilar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
93.4%
Jake Hubenak pass intercepted Mark McLaurin return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
50
-2
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:54
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
+21.2
TD · Q4 10:42
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Christian Kirk for 54 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
-13.8
TD · Q4 1:33
Jake Hubenak pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 4 yds for a TD, (Daniel LaCamera KICK)
-11.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com