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MSST

Mississippi State 55 at Ole Miss 20

MISS
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:47 · Kody Schexnayder punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Home team on offense−8.2Pregame prior+17.0Score differential−4.6Garbage-time factor−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:55: Aeris Williams run for 13 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +6.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:13: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 24 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +15.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:26: Gary Wunderlich 38 yd FG GOOD — MISS win probability +6.7 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:22: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 38 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +21.4 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:57: Nick Fitzgerald run for 61 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +15.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 9 of 10MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00MISS 4th & 6 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.5%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:02MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:43MISS 4th & 7 at MSST 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.3%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    69.4%−1.0
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:28MISS 4th & 10 at MISS 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.6%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:04MISS 4th & 2 at MISS 24, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    46.3%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:47MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−0.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:26MISS 4th & 2 at MSST 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.0%−0.5
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    41.9%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:54MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−2.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:10MISS 4th & 1 at MSST 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    48.4%−3.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    38.7%−12.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:22MSST 4th & 3 at MISS 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    59.5%−2.7
    38% to make
    Punt
    59.5%−2.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:17MISS 4th & 12 at MISS 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%−2.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:57MISS 4th & 5 at MSST 30, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    8.7%−0.2
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:16MISS 4th & 1 at MSST 45, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−2.1
    25% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−1.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:52MISS 4th & 9 at MISS 27, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 5:48MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    31.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:56MISS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:33MSST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:55MSST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:13MSST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:47MISS Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:22MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:57MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:09MSST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:59MSST Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0078% → 78%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
78.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 11 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
78.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
50
0
78.3%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
50
0
78.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
50
0
78.3%
Will Gleeson punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+16
78.1%
Aeris Williams run for 16 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
78.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete, broken up by Zedrick WoodsSimilar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
78.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:02
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
78.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:02
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
78.1%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3FG
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:3378% → 77%
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
77.9%
Akeem Judd run for 2 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+29
77.9%
Shea Patterson run for 29 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
78.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 22 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
78.1%
Akeem Judd run for 5 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+9
78.1%
Van Jefferson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
78.1%
Shea Patterson run for no gain to the MisSt 15Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+10
78.1%
Akeem Judd run for 10 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
78.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q1 9:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
77.4%
Jason Pellerin run for no gain to the MisSt 5Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
77.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 7Similar
Q1 7:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
77.2%
Gary Wunderlich 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 1:4823% → 26%
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+18
76.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 18 yds to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
76.4%
Keith Mixon run for 3 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q1 7:36
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+13
76.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 13 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:36
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+13
76.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 13 yds to the Miss 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
73.9%
Aeris Williams run for 16 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:5275% → 78%
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
74.6%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Akeem Judd for 14 yds to the Miss 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
74.9%
Akeem Judd run for 14 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
75.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Hunter Thurley for 12 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
75.8%
Akeem Judd run for 16 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
77.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 19 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:1524% → 28%
Q1 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
76.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+70
76.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 70 yds to the Miss 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
74.8%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Miss 8Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
71.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 8 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0073% → 72%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
73.1%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 7 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+4
73.2%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the Miss 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
73.2%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Miss 28Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
73.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Quincy Adeboyejo, broken up by Kivon ComanSimilar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
72.5%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:28
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
72.4%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 39 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8TD
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:4928% → 36%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
72.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 4 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+7
71.8%
Aeris Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
70.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+5
71.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+8
71.0%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the Miss 48Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+4
70.7%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Miss 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
70.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 49Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 49
+36
70.9%
Aeris Williams run for 36 yds to the Miss 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
64.1%
Aeris Williams run for 13 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9INT
6 plays · 56 yds · 0:0064% → 66%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
64.0%
Eugene Brazley run for 3 yds to the Miss 30Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 7
OWN 30
0
64.0%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:49
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+39
63.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 24 yds to the OLEMISS 46 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, personal foul (Mark McLaurin) to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
66.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 14 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
66.0%
Shea Patterson pass intercepted, touchback. Jamal Peters return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:1036% → 53%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
64.4%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+1
63.6%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+24
64.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 24 yds to the Miss 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+23
63.0%
Aeris Williams run for 23 yds to the Miss 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
62.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
46.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 24 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11TD
13 plays · 84 yds · 4:1752% → 58%
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
52.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Derrick Jones, broken up by Lashard DurrSimilar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
51.8%
Akeem Judd run for 9 yds to the Miss 25Similar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 1
OWN 25
-1
51.9%
Akeem Judd run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 24Similar
Q2 9:04
4TH & 2
OWN 24
+14
51.7%
Will Gleeson run for 14 yds to the Miss 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
53.2%
Akeem Judd run for 9 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+3
53.9%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
50
+5
53.8%
Shea Patterson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+6
53.8%
Shea Patterson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
53.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 2 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 9:04
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
53.7%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete, broken up by Traver JungSimilar
Q2 9:04
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+12
53.5%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Van Jefferson for 12 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
58.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 25 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0044% → 43%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.1%
Brandon Holloway run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 4:47
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-3
55.5%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 4:47
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
57.2%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13FG
12 plays · 57 yds · 2:2353% → 56%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
52.6%
Akeem Judd run for no gain to the Miss 23Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+5
52.4%
Shea Patterson run for 5 yds to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 2:49
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+14
52.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 14 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
54.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Van JeffersonSimilar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+16
53.6%
Shea Patterson run for 16 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
55.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Damore'ea Stringfellow, broken up by Jamal PetersSimilar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+14
54.9%
Shea Patterson run for 14 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
56.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 8 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 2
OPP 20
-8
56.2%
Shea Patterson sacked by Johnathan Calvin for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 28 OLE MISS Penalty, intentional grounding (Shea Patterson) to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+8
49.0%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Markell Pack for 8 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+38
55.8%
Gary Wunderlich 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
52.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0047% → 44%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
53.5%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
53.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 8
OWN 21
-5
54.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Justin Senior) to the MisSt 16Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 13
OWN 16
0
54.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross, broken up by Tony BridgesSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 13
OWN 16
0
55.6%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Carlos Davis at the Miss 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16DOWNS
9 plays · 42 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
56.5%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the Miss 41Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+22
55.9%
Akeem Judd run for 22 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
58.2%
Akeem Judd run for 1 yd to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+1
58.2%
Van Jefferson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 8
OPP 35
+9
57.9%
Shea Patterson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
59.5%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Damore'ea StringfellowSimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
59.4%
Akeem Judd run for 6 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+3
58.0%
Akeem Judd run for 3 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q3 14:10
4TH & 1
OPP 17
-1
56.7%
Akeem Judd run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17TD
9 plays · 82 yds · 4:2751% → 76%
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
48.8%
Aeris Williams run for 9 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+3
47.0%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
47.9%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
47.0%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+19
47.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 4 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST down OLE MISS Penalty, personal foul (Tony Bridges) to the Miss 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
45.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for no gain to the Miss 45Similar
Q3 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+6
45.4%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q3 9:49
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+1
45.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Miss 38Similar
Q3 5:22
4TH & 3
OPP 38
+38
24.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 38 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
27.1%
Akeem Judd run for 4 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
27.0%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q3 5:17
3RD & 6
OWN 21
-6
26.5%
Shea Patterson sacked by Johnathan Calvin for a loss of 6 yards to the Miss 15Similar
Q3 5:17
4TH & 12
OWN 15
0
26.3%
Will Gleeson punt for 54 yds, downed at the MisSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
3 plays · 69 yds · 0:4878% → 94%
Q3 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
21.9%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 3:45
2ND & 2
OWN 39
0
20.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+61
5.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 61 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 45 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
8.9%
OLE MISS Penalty, false start (Quincy Adeboyejo) to the Miss 20Similar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-2
8.9%
Shea Patterson sacked by Leo Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 18Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 17
OWN 18
+22
8.8%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 22 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+25
9.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 25 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
10.3%
Shea Patterson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 3
OPP 28
-2
10.6%
Shea Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 2:57
3RD & 5
OPP 30
0
10.4%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 5
OPP 30
0
9.8%
Shea Patterson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21FUMBLE
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:3595% → 96%
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
4.6%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 33
0
4.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+24
4.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 24 yds to the Miss 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
4.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+18
4.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 18 yds to the Miss 35 Nick Fitzgerald fumbled, forced by Tony Bridges, recovered by MisSt Nick FitzgeraldSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 35
-1
3.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 36 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Miss Issac GrossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
4.7%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Damore'ea Stringfellow for 10 yds to the Miss 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
4.9%
Shea Patterson pass complete to A.J. Brown for 8 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 2
OPP 46
0
5.3%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+1
5.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Eugene Brazley for 1 yd to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 13:16
4TH & 1
OPP 45
0
5.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 6:4797% → 100%
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
3.0%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+3
3.1%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+9
3.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
3.0%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+3
3.0%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+3
3.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
3.0%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Miss 29Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+8
2.9%
Aeris Williams run for 8 yds to the Miss 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
2.9%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the Miss 20Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & 9
OPP 20
+5
2.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the Miss 15Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 4
OPP 15
-15
1.1%
Ashton Shumpert rush for 15 yards to the OM0, clock 05:19, PENALTY MS personal foul (Justin Johnson) 15 yards to the OM30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 19
OPP 30
+30
0.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 30 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24INT TD
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
0.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Eugene Brazley for 11 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+19
0.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Markell Pack for 19 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
0.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Eugene Brazley for 3 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
0.2%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Eugene BrazleySimilar
Q4 5:01
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+7
0.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Eugene Brazley for 7 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+9
0.2%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Eugene Brazley for 9 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 5:01
2ND & 1
OPP 33
+11
0.3%
Shea Patterson pass complete to Taz Zettergren for 11 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+74
0.2%
Shea Patterson pass intercepted for a TD Cedric Jiles return for 74 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
0.1%
Eugene Brazley run for 1 yd to the Miss 27Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 9
OWN 27
0
0.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to Dawson KnoxSimilar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
0.1%
Shea Patterson pass incomplete to A.J. BrownSimilar
Q4 2:52
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
0.1%
- 9w punt for 39 yds, downed at the MisSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 1:59
2ND & 11
OWN 33
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 1:59
3RD & 12
OWN 32
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:22
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 38 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
-21.4
TD · Q2 9:13
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 24 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
-15.7
TD · Q3 2:57
Nick Fitzgerald run for 61 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
-15.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com