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MSST

Mississippi State 3 at Alabama 51

ALA
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
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Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:27 · Westin Graves 47 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.5+23.30−23.3−46.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Pregame prior+42.7Home team on offense+1.6Score differential+0.7Blowout margin+0.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 8:23: Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +0.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:36: Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 67 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +2.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:55: Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK) — ALA win probability +1.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 2:37: Adam Griffith 28 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +1.2 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 11:43: Westin Graves 47 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +0.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 6MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 13
  1. Q1 12:20ALA 4th & 7 at MSST 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:50MSST 4th & 17 at MSST 15, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:27MSST 4th & 6 at ALA 30, down 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.7%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:38MSST 4th & 8 at ALA 36, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    5.9%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:07ALA 4th & 1 at ALA 46, up 10
    Close callPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:52MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:09MSST 4th & 10 at ALA 33, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    4.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:21MSST 4th & 5 at ALA 48, down 24
    Close callPunted · 2.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:37ALA 4th & 4 at MSST 10, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.4%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:09MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 25, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:43MSST 4th & 16 at ALA 29, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.5%
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:04ALA 4th & 1 at MSST 36, up 27
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.5
    42% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:57MSST 4th & 9 at ALA 42, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:35MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 19, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:29MSST 4th & 6 at ALA 45, down 41
    Close callPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:56ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 25, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:21ALA 4th & 6 at ALA 49, up 41
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:32MSST 4th & 3 at ALA 38, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:02MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 32, down 48
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 8:23ALA Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:36ALA Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:55ALA Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:12ALA Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:40ALA Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:34ALA Touchdown, up 47 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ALADrive 1FG
11 plays · 63 yds · 2:3397% → 96%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
96.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 13 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
96.4%
Damien Harris run for 3 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 14:02
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+7
96.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 7 yds to the Alab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
96.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 13 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
96.3%
Damien Harris run for 4 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 13:16
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+20
96.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 20 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
96.2%
Damien Harris run for 2 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
96.1%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q1 12:25
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+1
96.1%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the MisSt 12Similar
Q1 12:20
4TH & 7
OPP 12
+30
96.1%
Adam Griffith 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 2:174% → 4%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
96.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 11 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
96.0%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 11:08
2ND & 6
OWN 26
0
95.9%
Malik Dear run for no gain to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-11
95.8%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Tim Williams for a loss of 11 yards to the MisSt 15Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 17
OWN 15
0
95.7%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 17 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 3TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 1:1796% → 96%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
95.7%
Jalen Hurts run for 9 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 9:22
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+19
95.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 14 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Jeffery Simmons) to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
95.6%
Jalen Hurts run for no gain to the MisSt 4Similar
Q1 8:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4MISSED FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:424% → 5%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray, broken up by Anthony AverettSimilar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
95.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith Mixon, broken up by Shaun Dion HamiltonSimilar
Q1 7:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+41
95.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 41 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
95.3%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 6:42
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-1
95.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 31Similar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+1
95.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the Alab 30Similar
Q1 5:27
4TH & 6
OPP 30
+47
95.2%
Westin Graves 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 5INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 1:1895% → 95%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
95.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Damien Harris for 11 yds to the Alab 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
95.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Cam Sims for 6 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+46
95.4%
Jalen Hurts pass intercepted Jamoral Graham return for 46 yds to the Alab 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6DOWNS
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:205% → 5%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
94.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (Nick Fitzgerald) to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 3:52
1ST & 15
OPP 43
+4
94.9%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+3
94.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
94.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Malik DearSimilar
Q1 2:38
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
94.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2195% → 95%
Q1 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
95.0%
Joshua Jacobs run for 4 yds to the Alab 41Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
95.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for 2 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 1:49
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+3
94.9%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 3 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 1:07
4TH & 1
OWN 46
0
94.7%
JK Scott punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 3:105% → 6%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
94.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+3
94.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 14:53
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
94.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 11 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
94.4%
Ashton Shumpert run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+1
94.4%
Aeris Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 13:25
3RD & 11
OWN 30
+3
94.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 3 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 12:52
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
94.5%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 9TD
2 plays · 67 yds · 0:1194% → 96%
Q2 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
94.2%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q2 12:36
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+67
96.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 67 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10DOWNS
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:084% → 4%
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
95.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 9 yds to the Alab 36Similar
Q2 11:55
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+3
95.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the Alab 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
95.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
95.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
95.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 10
OPP 33
0
96.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 11TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 0:5797% → 98%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
96.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 24 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+12
96.6%
Joshua Jacobs run for 12 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+26
96.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Joshua Jacobs for 26 yds to the MisSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
97.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 4:233% → 3%
Q2 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 9:14
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
97.4%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
97.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 7:53
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+7
97.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 7 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 7:23
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
97.2%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
97.3%
Aeris Williams run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:04
2ND & 7
50
+2
97.2%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the Alab 48Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
97.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 5:21
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
97.4%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 13FG
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:3398% → 99%
Q2 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
97.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the Alab 18Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+6
97.9%
Jalen Hurts run for 6 yds to the Alab 24Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 3
OWN 24
+60
97.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 60 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
98.0%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 3:03
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+8
98.1%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Miller Forristall for 8 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
98.0%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to Calvin Ridley, broken up by Nick JamesSimilar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+28
99.2%
Adam Griffith 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:230% → 1%
Q2 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray, broken up by Anthony AverettSimilar
Q2 2:18
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
99.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q2 2:09
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.5%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 40 yds , Trevon Diggs returns for 1 yd to the Alab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 15END OF HALF
14 plays · 43 yds · 2:0299% → 100%
Q2 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
99.3%
Joshua Jacobs run for 1 yd to the Alab 37Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-2
99.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Joshua Jacobs for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 35Similar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 11
OWN 35
+6
99.4%
Hurts, Jalen pass incomplete to Stewart, ArDarius (Peters, Jamal), PENALTY MISSSTATE offside (Calvin, Johnathan) 6 yards to the ALABAMA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+10
99.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Joshua Jacobs for 10 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.4%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to O.J. HowardSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
99.4%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Miller Forristall for 7 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+9
99.3%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 9 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
99.5%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Miller Forristall for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 6
OPP 29
0
99.5%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+8
99.5%
Jalen Hurts run for 8 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.5%
Jalen Hurts pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
99.5%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+39
99.5%
Adam Griffith 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:101% → 1%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.4%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Ross, Fred, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Harrison, Ronnie) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q3 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.3%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 14:07
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+11
99.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 11 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+24
99.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 24 yds to the Alab 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
99.5%
Aeris Williams run for 4 yds to the Alab 19Similar
Q3 12:32
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-10
99.5%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Ryan Anderson for a loss of 10 yards to the Alab 29Similar
Q3 11:50
3RD & 16
OPP 29
0
99.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray, broken up by Hootie JonesSimilar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 16
OPP 29
+47
99.4%
Westin Graves 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 17FUMBLE
8 plays · 29 yds · 2:32100% → 100%
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Jalen Hurts pass incomplete to ArDarius StewartSimilar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for a loss of 5 yards to the Alab 30Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+25
99.6%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 25 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
99.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Calvin Ridley for no gain to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-1
99.7%
Jalen Hurts sacked by Richie Brown and DeAndre Ward for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 9:32
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+10
99.7%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Gehrig Dieter for 10 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 9:04
4TH & 1
OPP 36
+1
99.6%
Jalen Hurts run for 1 yd to the MisSt 35 Jalen Hurts fumbled, forced by Jamal Peters, recovered by MisSt Mark McLaurinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:000% → 0%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
99.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+22
99.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 22 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
99.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
99.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q3 7:34
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-2
99.7%
Keith Mixon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 42Similar
Q3 6:57
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19TD
3 plays · 84 yds · 0:35100% → 100%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+58
99.8%
Joshua Jacobs run for 43 yds to the ALABAMA 41 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Jamoral Graham) to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
99.8%
Jalen Hurts run for 11 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
99.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 15 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:240% → 0%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan ThomasSimilar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 19
0
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan Thomas, broken up by Rashaan EvansSimilar
Q3 5:46
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Brandon HollowaySimilar
Q3 5:35
4TH & 10
OWN 19
0
99.8%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Trevon Diggs at the Alab 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+30
99.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to O.J. Howard for 30 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
99.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to Cam Sims for 8 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+20
99.8%
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 20 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:030% → 0%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 6 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
99.8%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Ross, Fred, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference (Averett, Anthony) 15 yards to the ALABAMA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q3 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 4 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 6
OPP 45
0
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 6
OPP 45
0
99.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:29
4TH & 6
OPP 45
0
99.8%
Kody Schexnayder punt for 23 yds, downed at the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:25100% → 100%
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.8%
Cooper Bateman pass incomplete to Joshua JacobsSimilar
Q3 2:21
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-5
99.8%
ALABAMA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Alab 17Similar
Q3 2:15
2ND & 15
OWN 17
+9
99.8%
Joshua Jacobs run for 9 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 6
OWN 26
-1
99.9%
Joshua Jacobs run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 0:56
4TH & 7
OWN 25
+10
99.9%
JK Scott punt for 62 yds , Fred Ross returns for 10 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24INT
5 plays · 49 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+24
99.9%
Aeris Williams run for 24 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
99.9%
Malik Dear run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 7
50
+22
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 22 yds to the Alab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+9
99.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Tony Brown return for 9 yds to the Alab 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 3:53100% → 100%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
99.9%
Joshua Jacobs run for 2 yds to the Alab 26Similar
Q4 13:31
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+6
99.9%
Joshua Jacobs run for 6 yds to the Alab 32Similar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 2
OWN 32
+13
99.9%
Joshua Jacobs run for 13 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.9%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+3
99.9%
Derrick Gore run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 5
50
-1
99.9%
Derrick Gore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 49Similar
Q4 10:21
4TH & 6
OWN 49
0
99.9%
JK Scott punt for 38 yds , Keith Mixon returns for no gain to the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26DOWNS
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:400% → 0%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
99.9%
Damian Williams pass complete to Jamal Couch for 7 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Myles for 5 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Damian Williams pass complete to Dontavian Lee for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+14
99.9%
Damian Williams pass complete to Jamal Couch for 14 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
99.9%
Damian Williams run for 9 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q4 7:43
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+2
99.9%
Damian Williams run for 2 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
99.9%
Damian Williams pass complete to Justin Johnson for 5 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 5
OPP 40
0
99.9%
Dontavian Lee run for no gain to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+2
99.9%
Dontavian Lee run for 2 yds to the Alab 38Similar
Q4 5:32
4TH & 3
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Jamal Couch, broken up by Jared MaydenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 27TD
6 plays · 61 yds · 2:46100% → 100%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+31
99.9%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Cam Sims for 31 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
100.0%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Derek Kief for 14 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
100.0%
Derrick Gore run for 2 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+7
100.0%
Ronnie Clark run for 7 yds to the MisSt 7Similar
Q4 3:09
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+2
100.0%
Ronnie Clark run for 2 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
100.0%
Cooper Bateman pass complete to Trevon Diggs for 5 yds for a TD, (Andy Pappanastos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28FUMBLE
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:270% → 0%
Q4 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
100.0%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Myles for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 1:38
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+8
100.0%
Damian Williams run for 8 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-8
100.0%
Damian Williams sacked by Raekwon Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 24 Damian Williams fumbled, forced by Raekwon Davis, recovered by MisSt Damian Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
100.0%
Ronnie Clark run for 3 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+2
100.0%
Ronnie Clark run for 2 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:36
Jalen Hurts pass complete to ArDarius Stewart for 67 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+2.2
TD · Q2 9:55
Jalen Hurts run for 4 yds for a TD, (Adam Griffith KICK)
+1.2
FG · Q2 2:37
Adam Griffith 28 yd FG GOOD
+1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com