Mississippi State

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2582nd
  Defense+0.0977th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense51.1%95th
  Defense39.9%72nd
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1327th
  Defense+1.2533rd
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.2084th
  Defense+0.0761st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3278th
  Defense+0.1281st
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense55.9%98th
  Defense45.6%61st
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense38.6%85th
  Defense29.4%83rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.2081st
  Defense2.7562nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.4%50th
  Defense21.2%65th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.2%37th
  Defense1.9%47th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Mississippi State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   USM
2. W
   UAB
3. W
   USA
4. W
   LSU
5. W
   TA&M
6. W
   AUB
7. W
   UK
8. W
   ARK
9. W
   UTM
10. L
    ALA
11. W
    VAN
12. L
    MISS
13. L
    GT

Bars above the line: better than expected for Mississippi State.

Players, 2014

1. Dak PrescottQB425 plays · +0.313 pts/play · 9th of 199 QBs
   2.49WAR1.83 to 3.16
2. Josh RobinsonRB153 plays · +0.119 pts/play · 50th of 350 RBs
   0.34WAR0.24 to 0.45
3. De'Runnya WilsonWR56 plays · +0.206 pts/play · 60th of 469 WRs
   0.22WAR0.13 to 0.29
4. Fred RossWR30 plays · +0.207 pts/play · 176th of 469 WRs
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.16
5. Jameon LewisWR34 plays · +0.094 pts/play · 307th of 469 WRs
   0.06WAR0.02 to 0.11
6. Fred BrownWR17 plays · +0.120 pts/play · 375th of 469 WRs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.06
7. Brandon HollowayRB15 plays · +0.112 pts/play · 271st of 350 RBs
   0.03WAR0.02 to 0.04
8. Ashton ShumpertRB22 plays · +0.066 pts/play · 274th of 350 RBs
   0.03WAR0.01 to 0.04

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Mississippi State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Mississippi State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 6 clear-cut ones account for 0.10 of the 0.17 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at GTQ3 11:03 4th & 21 at GT 36, down 8Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−2.9 pts
2. vs AUBQ4 11:33 4th & 2 at AUB 3, up 8Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.3 pts
3. vs AUBQ3 10:04 4th & 4 at AUB 40, up 15Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
4. at MISSQ3 13:15 4th & 1 at MSST 32, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
5. at UKQ4 3:56 4th & 1 at MSST 29, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
6. at LSUQ2 9:26 4th & 3 at LSU 10, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
7. at USAQ2 15:00 4th & 1 at MSST 30, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
8. at MISSQ2 2:03 4th & 2 at MSST 20, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

29th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Mississippi State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   USM
2. W

   UAB
3. W

   USA
4. W

   LSU
5. W

   TA&M
6. W

   AUB
7. W

   UK
8. W

   ARK
9. W

   UTM
10. L

    ALA
11. W

    VAN
12. L

    MISS
13. L

    GT

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Mississippi State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.04
• Possession & field position−0.03
• Clock+0.05
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.35

Game by game

• USMW 49-0 vs USM96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +6
• UABW 47-34 vs UAB97% → 99%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +7
• USAW 35-3 at USA85% → 100%Before kickoff +35 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +20
• LSUW 34-29 at LSU32% → 84%Before kickoff −18 · On the field +53: Scoreboard +44, Clock +2
• TA&MW 48-31 vs TA&M48% → 99%Before kickoff −2 · On the field +51: Scoreboard +43, Timeouts +2
• AUBW 38-23 vs AUB38% → 98%Before kickoff −12 · On the field +59: Scoreboard +47, Possession & field position −2
• UKW 45-31 at UK81% → 98%Before kickoff +31 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +29, Clock +1
• ARKW 17-10 vs ARK83% → 96%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +14: Scoreboard +21, Timeouts +2
• UTMW 45-16 vs UTM99% → 100%Before kickoff +49 · On the field +1: Scoreboard +2
• ALAL 20-25 at ALA29% → 7%Before kickoff −21 · On the field −22: Scoreboard −24, Timeouts −3
• VANW 51-0 vs VAN97% → 100%Before kickoff +47 · On the field +2: Scoreboard +4
• MISSL 17-31 at MISS56% → 1%Before kickoff +6 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −45, Timeouts −2
• GTL 34-49 at GT73% → 1%Before kickoff +23 · On the field −71: Scoreboard −50, Possession & field position −1

Points of win probability, from Mississippi State's side.

Closest call

MSST 38-35 ARK (2025) - Mississippi State dropped to a 6.1% win probability before pulling it out.