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USM

Southern Miss 0 at Mississippi State 49

MSST
2014 · Week 1 · Aug 30, 2014 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadUSM aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreUSM score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3TDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:07 · Devon Bell punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Play 50Pregame prior+39.0Home team on offense+3.2Score differential+0.6Blowout margin−0.4Garbage-time factor+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 12:35: Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 25 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +0.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:22: Nick Griffin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +1.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:15: Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 35 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +3.1 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:35: Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 23 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +1.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q3 14:49: Nick Mullens pass incomplete — USM win probability +3.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: USM has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 3USM made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 9:48MSST 4th & 1 at USM 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    93.6%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    93.1%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54USM 4th & 3 at USM 8, down 7
    Close callPunted · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.4%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:47MSST 4th & 4 at USM 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    93.3%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:06USM 4th & 6 at USM 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:07MSST 4th & 16 at MSST 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.4
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:08USM 4th & 2 at USM 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−<0.1
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:28USM 4th & 10 at USM 12, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.3%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:40USM 4th & 12 at USM 48, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:55USM 4th & 2 at USM 44, down 21
    Close callPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.0%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:25USM 4th & 5 at USM 12, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:27USM 4th & 5 at USM 42, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:02USM 4th & 5 at MSST 13, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.3%
    85% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:53USM 4th & 11 at USM 16, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:35MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:22MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:15MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:35MSST Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:02MSST Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
10 plays · 87 yds · 2:1596% → 95%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
95.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Robert Johnson for 11 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
95.5%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+7
95.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 7 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malcolm JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+28
95.3%
Josh Robinson run for 28 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
95.3%
Josh Robinson run for 5 yds to the SoMis 32Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
95.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+7
95.3%
Dak Prescott run for 7 yds to the SoMis 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
95.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 25 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 2INT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:455% → 5%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
95.3%
Ito Smith run for 1 yd to the SoMis 22Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
95.2%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+14
95.2%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted Preston Smith return for 14 yds to the SoMis 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3DOWNS
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:4795% → 95%
Q1 11:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
95.3%
Josh Robinson run for 1 yd to the SoMis 3Similar
Q1 11:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.2%
Nick Griffin run for no gain to the SoMis 3Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
95.1%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the SoMis 1Similar
Q1 9:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
95.0%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the SoMis 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:465% → 5%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
94.9%
Nick Mullens run for 1 yd to the SoMis 2Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
94.9%
George Payne run for 3 yds to the SoMis 5Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+3
94.8%
Jalen Richard run for 3 yds to the SoMis 8Similar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 3
OWN 8
+5
94.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 47 yds , Jameon Lewis returns for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:5895% → 95%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
50
+6
94.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 6 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
94.7%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the SoMis 44Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
94.6%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Jameon LewisSimilar
Q1 6:47
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
94.5%
Devon Bell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:296% → 6%
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
94.5%
George Payne run for no gain to the SoMis 11Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
94.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Kyle FosterSimilar
Q1 5:50
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+4
94.4%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Daythan Davis for 4 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q1 5:06
4TH & 6
OWN 15
+24
94.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jameon Lewis at the MISSSTATE 46 for a 1ST down SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7MISSED FG
9 plays · 16 yds · 2:0994% → 94%
Q1 5:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+15
94.4%
Josh Robinson run for 15 yds to the SoMis 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
94.4%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+14
94.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 14 yds to the SoMis 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 0
OPP 10
-10
94.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the SoMis 20Similar
Q1 4:08
1ST & 0
OPP 20
0
94.4%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:54
2ND & 0
OPP 20
+5
94.4%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the SoMis 15Similar
Q1 3:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
-8
94.2%
Dak Prescott sacked by Ja'Boree Poole for a loss of 8 yards to the SoMis 23Similar
Q1 2:52
4TH & 0
OPP 23
+40
94.1%
Westin Graves 40 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 43 yds · 0:516% → 7%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
93.8%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 12 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.7%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+12
93.7%
Ito Smith run for 12 yds to the SoMis 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
93.5%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+19
93.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 19 yds Markese Triplett fumbled, recovered by MisSt Beniquez BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:3394% → 93%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
93.8%
Josh Robinson run for 10 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
93.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 7 yds to the SoMis 49Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 3
OPP 49
-8
93.9%
Dak Prescott sacked by Dylan Bradley for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 0:17
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
93.6%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:17
4TH & 11
OWN 43
-5
93.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 0:07
4TH & 16
OWN 38
0
93.3%
Devon Bell punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Jalen Richard at the SoMis 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:527% → 7%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
93.4%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 13Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OWN 13
0
93.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q2 14:41
3RD & 10
OWN 13
+8
93.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Jalen Richard for 8 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 14:08
4TH & 2
OWN 21
0
93.5%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 30 yds, downed at the MisSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 1:3894% → 95%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
93.6%
Nick Griffin run for 4 yds to the SoMis 47Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
93.6%
Nick Griffin run for 2 yds to the SoMis 45Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+9
93.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Hill for 9 yds to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+24
93.5%
Nick Griffin run for 24 yds to the SoMis 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+11
93.5%
Nick Griffin run for 11 yds to the SoMis 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:27
1ST & 0
OPP 1
0
93.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Offside ( Yards) to the SoMis 1Similar
Q2 12:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.3%
Nick Griffin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:475% → 5%
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
94.7%
Nick Mullens run for 1 yd to the SoMis 13Similar
Q2 11:30
2ND & 9
OWN 13
-1
94.6%
Nick Mullens run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 12Similar
Q2 10:38
3RD & 10
OWN 12
0
94.6%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q2 10:28
4TH & 10
OWN 12
+19
94.7%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SoMis 36 SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the SoMis 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13INT
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:5395% → 95%
Q2 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+27
95.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 27 yds to the SoMis 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
95.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for no gain to the SoMis 4Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
95.2%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the SoMis 3Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
95.1%
Dak Prescott pass intercepted, touchback. Kalan Reed return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 14PUNT
10 plays · 28 yds · 2:346% → 6%
Q2 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
94.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Casey Martin for 10 yds to the SoMis 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
94.5%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Casey MartinSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
94.5%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 8 yds to the SoMis 38Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+2
94.2%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
94.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 8 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+2
93.9%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
50
-2
94.0%
Ito Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the SoMis 48Similar
Q2 6:56
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
94.3%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 12
OWN 48
0
94.4%
Nick Mullens pass incomplete to Marquise RicardSimilar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
94.4%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 38 yds , Jameon Lewis returns for no gain to the MisSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
8 plays · 86 yds · 2:2095% → 98%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
94.5%
Josh Robinson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+4
94.5%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+6
94.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 6 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
94.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jameon LewisSimilar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+9
94.4%
Dak Prescott run for 9 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 4:50
3RD & 1
OWN 38
+3
94.5%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+24
94.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 24 yds to the SoMis 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
97.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 35 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:053% → 3%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
97.2%
Ito Smith run for 2 yds to the SoMis 21Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+15
97.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Preston Smith) to the SoMis 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
97.1%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Markese Triplett for 4 yds to the SoMis 40Similar
Q2 2:53
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
97.2%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:42
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+4
97.2%
Nick Mullens run for 4 yds to the SoMis 44Similar
Q2 1:55
4TH & 2
OWN 44
0
97.2%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17TD
7 plays · 93 yds · 1:1098% → 99%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+34
97.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 34 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
98.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 11 yds to the SoMis 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
98.1%
Dak Prescott run for 15 yds to the SoMis 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
98.2%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the SoMis 29Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+6
98.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 6 yds to the SoMis 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
99.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 23 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 18INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:161% → 1%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.3%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+22
99.3%
Nick Mullens pass complete to Kyle Foster for 22 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
99.3%
SOUTHERN MISS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 15
OPP 45
0
99.3%
Nick Mullens pass intercepted, touchback. Jay Hughes return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:244% → 1%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
96.4%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+5
96.6%
Ito Smith run for 5 yds to the SoMis 12Similar
Q3 14:10
3RD & 5
OWN 12
0
99.4%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the SoMis 12Similar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 5
OWN 12
+1
99.5%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 42 yds , Brandon Holloway returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21TD
7 plays · 53 yds · 2:28100% → 100%
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
99.5%
Josh Robinson run for 5 yds to the SoMis 48Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
99.5%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+9
99.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 9 yds to the SoMis 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
99.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 12 yds to the SoMis 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.6%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the SoMis 27Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.6%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the SoMis 24Similar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+24
99.7%
De'Runnya Wilson 24 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.6%
Ito Smith run for 8 yds to the SoMis 33Similar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
99.6%
George Payne run for 4 yds to the SoMis 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-6
99.6%
Nick Mullens sacked by Chris Jones for a loss of 6 yards to the SoMis 31Similar
Q3 9:20
2ND & 16
OWN 31
0
99.7%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+11
99.7%
Nick Mullens run for 11 yds to the SoMis 42Similar
Q3 8:27
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
99.7%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 31 yds, downed at the MisSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:22100% → 100%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
99.7%
Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for 5 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 5
OWN 32
-2
99.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 30 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SoMis Jerry McCorveySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 24MISSED FG TD
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:480% → 0%
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.7%
Ito Smith run for no gain to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+8
99.7%
Nick Mullens pass complete to D.J. Thompson for 8 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+4
99.7%
George Payne run for 4 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
99.7%
Nick Mullens run for 1 yd to the MisSt 17Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+4
99.7%
George Payne run for 4 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 5
OPP 13
0
99.7%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+68
99.7%
Jay Hughes 68 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Evan Sobiesk Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USMDrive 25TD
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:570% → 0%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-1
99.8%
George Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the SoMis 16Similar
Q3 4:14
2ND & 11
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 11
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Nick Mullens pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:53
4TH & 11
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Tyler Sarrazin punt for 50 yds, downed at the MisSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:15
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 35 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
+3.1
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:49
Nick Mullens pass incomplete
-3.1
TD · Q2 12:22
Nick Griffin run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
+1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com