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MSST

Mississippi State 17 at Ole Miss 31

MISS
2014 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2014 · Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
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Win probability · MISS
modelMISS aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playMISS scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:43 · Evan Sobiesk 34 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 114Home team on offense+2.0Pregame prior−2.1Garbage-time factor+0.4Score differential+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:37: Dak Prescott 1 Yd Run (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +15.4 pts (now 61%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:08: Jeremy Liggins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +15.3 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:13: Jaylen Walton run for 91 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +16.9 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:58: Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 32 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +16.6 pts (now 29%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:14: Jordan Wilkins pass complete to Cody Core for 31 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK) — MISS win probability +10.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MISS has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MISS made the numbers' call on 6 of 10MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 13
  1. Q1 13:55MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    45.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:09MISS 4th & 10 at MSST 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:31MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:40MSST 4th & 17 at MSST 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:45MSST 4th & 5 at MISS 28, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.4%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:18MISS 4th & 12 at MSST 37, up 4
    Close callPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.6%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    50.9%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:26MSST 4th & 8 at MISS 46, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    46.5%−1.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    47.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:02MISS 4th & 4 at MISS 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.4%−0.4
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:56MSST 4th & 3 at MISS 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.8%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    45.6%−1.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    44.8%−2.0
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:57MISS 4th & 3 at MISS 42, up 4
    Close callPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.7%−0.3
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:03MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 20, down 4
    Close callPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%−0.7
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:12MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 47, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.2%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:15MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 32, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.8%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:43MISS 4th & 5 at MISS 13, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  15. Q3 6:43MSST 4th & 5 at MISS 17, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.5%
    80% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−7.8
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:37MISS 4th & 10 at MSST 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    65.1%
    72% to make
    Punt
    55.3%−9.8
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:39MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−0.7
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:05MISS 4th & 1 at MISS 39, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.9 ptsPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%−3.9
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:45MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.7
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.6%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:33MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 39, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.7%
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:36MISS 4th & 13 at MISS 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.8%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:00MSST 4th & 4 at MISS 14, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.3%−0.3
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    4.6%
    84% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−2.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 1:52MSST 4th & 4 at MISS 4, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.9%
    93% to make
    Punt
    2.0%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MISS made the numbers' call on 3 of 4MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:00MISS Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 9:37MSST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 8:08MISS Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:13MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:58MSST Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:14MISS Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MISSDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 22 yds · 2:4144% → 45%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
44.2%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Vince SandersSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+8
44.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 8 yds to the Miss 37Similar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+1
44.4%
Bo Wallace run for 1 yd to the Miss 38Similar
Q1 13:55
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+2
44.5%
Jeremy Liggins run for 2 yds to the Miss 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
44.7%
I'Tavius Mathers run for no gain to the Miss 40Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
44.8%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+11
44.8%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 11 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
45.1%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
45.1%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Vince SandersSimilar
Q1 12:23
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
45.0%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
44.9%
Will Gleeson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:3855% → 54%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
45.0%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 7
OWN 12
-1
45.1%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 11Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+14
45.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 14 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
45.3%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
45.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 4 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 9:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
45.6%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 8:31
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
46.0%
Devon Bell punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 3INT
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:1746% → 48%
Q1 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
45.9%
Jaylen Walton run for 6 yds to the Miss 33Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 4
OWN 33
-7
46.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds to the Miss 36 OLE MISS Penalty, Offensive Holding (Laremy Tunsil) to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+8
45.9%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Cody Core for 8 yds to the Miss 34Similar
Q1 7:25
3RD & 3
OWN 34
+16
46.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 16 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
50
+14
47.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 14 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
47.3%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 19 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
47.6%
Bo Wallace pass intercepted, touchback. Taveze Calhoun return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4FUMBLE
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:3454% → 53%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
46.2%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-1
46.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 11
OWN 19
-6
46.9%
Dak Prescott sacked by Marquis Haynes for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 13Similar
Q1 4:40
4TH & 17
OWN 13
+20
47.4%
Devon Bell punt for 54 yds , Markell Pack returns for 20 yds to the MisSt 47 Markell Pack fumbled, forced by A.J. Jefferson, recovered by Miss Markell PackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 5TD
2 plays · 47 yds · 0:4048% → 53%
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+46
47.9%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 46 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
52.5%
Bo Wallace run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6FG
11 plays · 47 yds · 4:1549% → 51%
Q1 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.1%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+14
51.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 14 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
50.9%
Dak Prescott run for 8 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 2:45
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
50.5%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+5
50.8%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
50.7%
Josh Robinson run for 15 yds to the Miss 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+7
50.4%
Josh Robinson run for 7 yds to the Miss 26Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 3
OPP 26
-2
50.4%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 2 yards to the Miss 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 28
0
51.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jameon LewisSimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 5
OPP 28
+45
49.3%
Evan Sobiesk 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:2750% → 50%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
50.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 5 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+30
50.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Vince Sanders for 30 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-10
52.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 20
OPP 45
0
51.3%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 20
OPP 45
+8
50.7%
Bo Wallace pass complete to I'Tavius Mathers for 8 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 12
OPP 37
0
50.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 37 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 3:5249% → 48%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
50.8%
Holloway, Brandon rush for no gain to the MISSSTATE20, PENALTY OLEMISS personal foul (Lewis, Keith) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE35, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
50.5%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
49.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 11:00
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+8
49.6%
Dak Prescott run for 8 yds to the Miss 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
49.2%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 8
OPP 46
-1
49.4%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+1
50.1%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the Miss 46Similar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
51.8%
Devon Bell punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2452% → 52%
Q2 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
52.4%
Mark Dodson run for 4 yds to the Miss 20Similar
Q2 7:55
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+2
53.3%
Mark Dodson run for 2 yds to the Miss 22Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 4
OWN 22
0
52.7%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 4
OWN 22
0
52.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10DOWNS
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:0648% → 48%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
51.7%
Dak Prescott pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
51.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+20
53.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 20 yds to the Miss 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
50.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the Miss 41Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+3
50.6%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the Miss 38Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+3
51.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 3 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q2 4:56
4TH & 3
OPP 35
0
51.8%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the Miss 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5955% → 54%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
55.0%
Jaylen Walton run for 7 yds to the Miss 42Similar
Q2 4:25
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
57.0%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Quincy AdeboyejoSimilar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
55.9%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Cody Core OLE MISS Penalty, Personal Foul ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:57
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
54.4%
Gary Wunderlich punt for 46 yds, downed at the MisSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5446% → 44%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
53.7%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the MisSt 12Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 10
OWN 12
+6
54.2%
Josh Robinson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 2:45
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+2
54.8%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 2
OWN 20
0
56.5%
Devon Bell punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5157% → 56%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
57.4%
DeVante Kincade run for 2 yds to the Miss 40Similar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
57.9%
Bo Wallace pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+7
56.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 7 yds to the Miss 47Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
56.4%
Will Gleeson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:3745% → 44%
Q2 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
55.3%
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+9
55.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 9 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4044% → 43%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
56.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 23
-5
56.7%
Dak Prescott sacked by Tony Conner for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 15
OWN 18
+14
58.3%
Dak Prescott run for 14 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 13:15
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
57.4%
Devon Bell punt for 60 yds, fair catch by Markell Pack at the Miss 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3257% → 55%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
57.3%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 8
0
57.1%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Cody CoreSimilar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 10
OWN 8
+5
55.6%
Wallace, Bo pass incomplete to Adeboyejo, Quincy, PENALTY MISSSTATE offside (Redmond, Will) 5 yards to the OLEMISS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:56
3RD & 5
OWN 13
0
55.8%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q3 12:43
4TH & 5
OWN 13
0
55.0%
Will Gleeson punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:0644% → 61%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
55.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 7 yds to the MisSt 45 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Blaine Clausell) to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 12:20
1ST & 13
OWN 35
+24
57.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 24 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
53.4%
Ashton Shumpert run for 12 yds to the Miss 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
52.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 5 yds to the Miss 24Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
54.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+16
55.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 16 yds to the Miss 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
54.5%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the Miss 5Similar
Q3 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
54.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the Miss 1Similar
Q3 9:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.1%
Dak Prescott 1 Yd Run (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 18TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 1:2944% → 66%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+83
44.2%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 83 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
50.2%
Jeremy Liggins run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 2Similar
Q3 8:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
50.2%
Jordan Wilkins run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
Q3 8:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
65.5%
Jeremy Liggins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19MISSED FG
6 plays · 58 yds · 1:2539% → 41%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+53
60.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 53 yds to the Miss 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
54.9%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the Miss 18Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 6
OPP 18
0
55.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 7:10
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+1
56.6%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the Miss 17Similar
Q3 6:43
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
59.4%
Evan Sobiesk 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 20FG
7 plays · 58 yds · 3:0663% → 73%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
63.3%
Jaylen Walton run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 19Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+35
63.0%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 35 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+24
67.4%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Quincy Adeboyejo for 24 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
68.3%
Jaylen Walton run for no gain to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
69.3%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q3 3:50
3RD & 10
OPP 22
0
68.1%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to Evan EngramSimilar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 10
OPP 22
+39
73.2%
Gary Wunderlich 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:5830% → 28%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
69.7%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
69.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Robert JohnsonSimilar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
70.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 2:39
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
72.3%
Devon Bell punt for 61 yds, downed at the Miss 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 22TD
1 play · 91 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+91
89.3%
Jaylen Walton run for 91 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1514% → 29%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
85.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+7
86.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 1:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
85.6%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
85.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 9 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 0:55
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
84.6%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
87.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 8 yds to the Miss 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
-5
86.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 49
-1
86.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 14:35
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+20
87.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 20 yds to the Miss 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
70.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 32 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:5381% → 82%
Q4 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
81.2%
Bo Wallace run for no gain to the Miss 30Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
81.6%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Evan Engram for 5 yds to the Miss 35Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+4
82.1%
Bo Wallace pass complete to Jaylen Walton for 4 yds to the Miss 39Similar
Q4 12:05
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
82.1%
Will Gleeson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 2:2022% → 19%
Q4 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+11
78.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for 11 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
77.6%
Dak Prescott sacked by C.J. Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 20
OWN 25
+7
79.3%
Josh Robinson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+5
80.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 5 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
80.6%
Devon Bell punt for 35 yds, downed at the Miss 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 26TD
2 plays · 72 yds · 0:3184% → 95%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+41
84.1%
Jordan Wilkins run for 41 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
94.8%
Jordan Wilkins pass complete to Cody Core for 31 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:419% → 8%
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
91.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 14 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
90.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
90.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Josh RobinsonSimilar
Q4 8:50
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
91.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jameon LewisSimilar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
92.1%
Devon Bell punt for 42 yds, downed at the Miss 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:5794% → 96%
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
94.4%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Miss 21Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+20
94.6%
Cody Core run for 20 yds to the Miss 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
95.5%
Jaylen Walton run for 2 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-5
95.9%
Bo Wallace sacked by Preston Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the Miss 38Similar
Q4 5:50
3RD & 13
OWN 38
0
95.8%
Bo Wallace pass incomplete to I'Tavius MathersSimilar
Q4 5:36
4TH & 13
OWN 38
0
95.5%
Will Gleeson punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 29DOWNS
14 plays · 61 yds · 3:447% → 6%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
93.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+10
93.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 10 yds to the Miss 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
92.9%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the Miss 43Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+23
92.7%
Ashton Shumpert run for 23 yds to the Miss 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
93.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 8 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+1
93.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 1 yd to the Miss 11Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 1
OPP 11
-5
94.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Miss 16Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+2
93.6%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 3:00
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+9
94.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 9 yds to the Miss 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
93.6%
Josh Robinson run for 1 yd to the Miss 4Similar
Q4 2:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
93.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jameon LewisSimilar
Q4 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q4 1:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
94.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Brandon HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MISSDrive 30END OF GAME
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:3298% → 99%
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
97.7%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds to the Miss 7Similar
Q4 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+5
98.2%
Jaylen Walton run for 5 yds to the Miss 12Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 2
OWN 12
+3
98.5%
Jaylen Walton run for 3 yds to the Miss 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
98.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 14Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 11
OWN 14
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Miss 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:13
Jaylen Walton run for 91 yds for a TD, (Gary Wunderlich KICK)
+16.9
TD · Q4 13:58
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 32 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
-16.6
TD · Q3 9:37
Dak Prescott 1 Yd Run (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
-15.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com