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MSST

Mississippi State 34 at LSU 29

LSU
2014 · Week 4 · Sep 20, 2014 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:20 · Devon Bell punt for 44 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 181Home team on offense−34.3Score differential−5.1Pregame prior+0.1Garbage-time factor−13.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−12.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 9:26: Evan Sobiesk 27 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +6.1 pts (now 59%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:48: Danielle Hunter 25 Yd Fumble Return (Colby Delahoussaye Kick) — LSU win probability +10.0 pts (now 47%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:44: Dak Prescott run for 56 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +13.9 pts (now 69%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:35: Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 74 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +16.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:27: Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 30 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK) — LSU win probability +21.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:57LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:14LSU 4th & 13 at LSU 22, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.3%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:08MSST 4th & 22 at MSST 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.3%−1.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:06LSU 4th & 2 at MSST 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    62.1%−0.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−4.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:33LSU 4th & 22 at LSU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−1.9
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:26MSST 4th & 3 at LSU 10, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.7%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.7%−1.0
    88% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−9.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:44LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 46, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.4%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:56MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 15, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−3.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:20LSU 4th & 8 at MSST 13, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:30MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.1%−1.0
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:47LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 32, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 32.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.9%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:16LSU 4th & 14 at LSU 38, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%−2.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:09MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 26, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.8%
    average punt
  14. Q3 5:16LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:49MSST 4th & 11 at LSU 11, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−0.6
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    92.5%−2.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:44LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 42, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.9%−0.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:34MSST 4th & 3 at LSU 48, up 18
    Close callPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.2%−0.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:55LSU 4th & 17 at LSU 2, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 3:43MSST 4th & 1 at LSU 3, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.9%
    63% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    95.2%−2.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:20MSST 4th & 4 at LSU 44, up 5
    Close callPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.3%
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.7%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:47MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 14:48LSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5368% → 68%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
68.2%
Kenny Hilliard run for 3 yds to the LSU 28Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
68.1%
Kenny Hilliard run for 2 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+2
68.0%
Anthony Jennings run for 2 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q1 12:57
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+21
67.9%
Jamie Keehn punt for 40 yds , Jamoral Graham returns for 21 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
7 plays · 51 yds · 2:0032% → 34%
Q1 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
67.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 25 yds Malcolm Johnson fumbled, forced by Ronald Martin, recovered by MisSt Malcolm Johnson for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
67.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 9 yds to the LSU 17Similar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+5
67.4%
Josh Robinson run for 5 yds to the LSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
67.4%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the LSU 9Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-5
67.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Ben Beckwith) to the LSU 14Similar
Q1 11:13
2ND & 12
OPP 14
+5
67.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 5 yds to the LSU 9Similar
Q1 10:47
3RD & 7
OPP 9
+9
65.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 9 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 1:5666% → 65%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.0%
Anthony Jennings run for no gain to the LSU 26 Anthony Jennings fumbled, recovered by LSU Anthony Jennings Anthony Jennings run for 1 yd to the LSU 26Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-13
65.9%
Jennings, Anthony pass complete to Hilliard, Kenny for 6 yards to the LSU32, PENALTY LSU personal foul (Alexander, Vadal) 13 yards to the LSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+5
65.5%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Trey Quinn for 5 yds to the LSU 18Similar
Q1 8:48
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+4
64.9%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Terrence Magee for 4 yds to the LSU 22Similar
Q1 8:14
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
64.5%
Jamie Keehn punt for 56 yds, fair catch by Jamoral Graham at the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 2:0035% → 36%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
64.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+14
64.7%
Josh Robinson run for 14 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
64.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-5
63.9%
Dak Prescott sacked by Danielle Hunter for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 15
OWN 31
-7
64.3%
Dak Prescott sacked by Dwayne Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 22
OWN 24
0
64.2%
Devon Bell punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5DOWNS
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:5264% → 62%
Q1 5:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
64.0%
Anthony Jennings run for 2 yds to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 5:32
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+9
63.8%
Anthony Jennings run for 9 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+44
64.2%
Terrence Magee pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 44 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
64.7%
Terrence Magee run for 2 yds to the MisSt 7Similar
Q1 4:13
2ND & 0
OPP 7
+5
65.0%
Jennings, Anthony pass incomplete to Dural, Travin, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Redmond, Will) 5 yards to the MISSSTATE2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
64.4%
Darrel Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 2Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
64.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
63.5%
Kenny Hilliard run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 2Similar
Q1 2:06
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
0
62.1%
Anthony Jennings run for no gain to the MisSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6TD
5 plays · 98 yds · 1:1039% → 46%
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
61.3%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the MisSt 4Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+26
61.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 26 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
60.3%
Josh Robinson run for 23 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+44
59.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 44 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
53.6%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 3:2755% → 50%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
54.6%
Travin Dural run for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+20
54.6%
Leonard Fournette run for 20 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
55.5%
Terrence Magee run for 2 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
55.3%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q2 13:54
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+15
54.3%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 15 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
54.5%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-6
53.9%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Ryan Brown and Jamerson Love for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & 13
OPP 46
-9
51.3%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Preston Smith for a loss of 9 yards to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 11:33
4TH & 22
OWN 45
0
50.2%
Jamie Keehn punt for 38 yds, downed at the MisSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8FG
5 plays · 73 yds · 1:5551% → 59%
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+66
49.0%
Josh Robinson run for 66 yds to the LSU 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
47.4%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the LSU 17Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+7
46.9%
Dak Prescott run for 7 yds to the LSU 10Similar
Q2 9:56
3RD & 3
OPP 10
0
46.8%
Jameon Lewis run for no gain to the LSU 10Similar
Q2 9:26
4TH & 3
OPP 10
+27
40.7%
Evan Sobiesk 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 2:2744% → 43%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
44.0%
Kenny Hilliard run for 9 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+6
44.3%
Kenny Hilliard run for 6 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
43.3%
Anthony Jennings run for 6 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 8:10
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+8
44.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 8 yds to the LSU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
44.6%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travin Dural for 3 yds to the LSU 46Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
43.8%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Travin Dural, broken up by Will RedmondSimilar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
43.4%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
42.7%
Jamie Keehn punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Jamoral Graham at the MisSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:3762% → 64%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
38.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 7 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+4
37.7%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
37.3%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 15Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
36.8%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 4:52
3RD & 4
OWN 21
-5
36.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Blaine Clausell) to the MisSt 16Similar
Q2 4:31
3RD & 9
OWN 16
-1
36.3%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 15Similar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 10
OWN 15
0
36.0%
Devon Bell punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:2740% → 39%
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
39.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 7
OWN 45
+16
39.1%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travin Dural for 16 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
39.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 2:33
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+22
38.3%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travin Dural for 22 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
39.0%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Dillon GordonSimilar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+2
38.9%
Anthony Jennings run for 2 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q2 1:26
3RD & 8
OPP 13
0
37.5%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 8
OPP 13
+30
39.4%
Colby Delahoussaye 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:4464% → 65%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
36.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 16 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
34.8%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the MisSt 41Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
35.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Josh RobinsonSimilar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+2
34.2%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 0:30
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
35.0%
Devon Bell punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 13END OF HALF
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0335% → 35%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
34.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+13
34.8%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Terrence Magee for 13 yds to the LSU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-25
46.6%
Danielle Hunter 25 Yd Fumble Return (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:5954% → 69%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malcolm JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
46.8%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+12
47.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
44.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Robert Johnson, broken up by Christian LaCoutureSimilar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
44.6%
Jameon Lewis run for 7 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 12:44
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+56
30.6%
Dak Prescott run for 56 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2433% → 31%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
32.6%
Kenny Hilliard run for 2 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
32.0%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Malachi Dupre, broken up by Jamerson LoveSimilar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+7
31.1%
Anthony Jennings run for 7 yds to the LSU 32Similar
Q3 10:47
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
31.1%
Jamie Keehn punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jamoral Graham at the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17TD
3 plays · 77 yds · 1:0571% → 87%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
29.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malcolm JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
29.1%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 9:35
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+74
13.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 74 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:1318% → 14%
Q3 9:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.9%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.5%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travis Dickson for 5 yds to the LSU 30Similar
Q3 8:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+12
15.9%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travin Dural for 12 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
16.3%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Terrence Magee for 3 yds to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
15.9%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-7
15.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 38 TEAM fumbled, recovered by LSU Anthony JenningsSimilar
Q3 7:16
4TH & 14
OWN 38
0
13.7%
Jamie Keehn punt for 62 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4390% → 93%
Q3 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
9.8%
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
8.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 4 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 4
OWN 26
0
7.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Robert JohnsonSimilar
Q3 6:09
4TH & 4
OWN 26
0
7.4%
Devon Bell punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:4411% → 10%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
10.5%
Darrel Williams run for 4 yds to the LSU 39Similar
Q3 5:35
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
10.4%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q3 5:27
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
10.2%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Travis DicksonSimilar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
9.7%
Jamie Keehn punt for 60 yds, downed at the MisSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21FG
17 plays · 88 yds · 5:2094% → 96%
Q3 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
6.5%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the MisSt 3 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-1 Yards) to the MisSt 2Similar
Q3 5:00
1ST & 9
OWN 2
0
6.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+12
6.3%
Dak Prescott run for 12 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
6.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 5 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+6
5.9%
Josh Robinson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
5.3%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
5.2%
Dak Prescott run for 10 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
4.8%
Josh Robinson run for 11 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
4.6%
Josh Robinson run for 8 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+5
4.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the LSU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
4.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 21 yds to the LSU 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
3.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 11 yds to the LSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
3.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the LSU 2Similar
Q3 0:36
2ND & 0
OPP 2
-10
3.5%
Shumpert, Ashton rush for no gain to the LSU2, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Malone, Justin) 10 yards to the LSU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+1
3.5%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the LSU 11Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
0
3.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malcolm JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 11
+28
3.9%
Evan Sobiesk 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 2:035% → 10%
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
4.5%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to Trey QuinnSimilar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
4.4%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+9
4.3%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Terrence Magee for 9 yds to the LSU 42Similar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+2
4.0%
Kenny Hilliard run for 2 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+49
3.9%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Travin Dural for 49 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
4.4%
Kenny Hilliard run for 6 yds to the MisSt 1Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.7%
Kenny Hilliard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Anthony Jennings failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:5294% → 96%
Q4 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
6.2%
Josh Robinson run for 20 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
5.2%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 8
OWN 47
0
4.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for no gain to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 10:14
3RD & 8
OWN 47
+5
4.5%
Josh Robinson run for 5 yds to the LSU 48Similar
Q4 9:34
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
4.4%
Devon Bell punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:305% → 5%
Q4 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
5.3%
Anthony Jennings pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 1 yd to the LSU 10Similar
Q4 8:55
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
5.2%
Anthony Jennings pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q4 8:40
3RD & 9
OWN 10
-8
5.0%
Anthony Jennings sacked by Tolando Cleveland and P.J. Jones for a loss of 8 yards to the LSU 2Similar
Q4 7:55
4TH & 17
OWN 2
+14
4.7%
Jamie Keehn punt for 58 yds , Jamoral Graham returns for 14 yds to the LSU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 41 yds · 4:0496% → 98%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+22
3.6%
Josh Robinson run for 22 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+9
3.3%
Josh Robinson run for 9 yds to the LSU 15Similar
Q4 6:34
2ND & 1
OPP 15
+3
3.1%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the LSU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
2.6%
Nick Griffin run for 7 yds to the LSU 5Similar
Q4 5:00
2ND & 3
OPP 5
0
2.1%
Nick Griffin run for no gain to the LSU 5Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+2
2.1%
Nick Griffin run for 2 yds to the LSU 3Similar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 1
OPP 3
-2
2.1%
Nick Griffin run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 26TD
6 plays · 95 yds · 1:382% → 8%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
2.3%
Brandon Harris run for 7 yds to the LSU 12Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+19
2.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Trey Quinn for 19 yds to the LSU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+13
2.3%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Darrel Williams for 13 yds to the LSU 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
2.3%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to John DiarseSimilar
Q4 2:10
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+25
2.2%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Darrel Williams for 25 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
7.6%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 31 yds for a TD, (Brandon Harris failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28FUMBLE
3 plays · -24 yds · 0:0697% → 97%
Q4 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
3.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for no gain to the LSU 46Similar
Q4 1:42
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-24
3.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 24 yards to the MisSt 30 TEAM fumbled, recovered by LSU Dwayne ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 29TD
2 plays · 30 yds · 0:077% → 28%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
6.8%
Brandon Harris pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+30
28.4%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 30 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 1:0094% → 95%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
50
+1
5.7%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the LSU 49Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+2
5.8%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+3
5.7%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
5.5%
Devon Bell punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 31END OF GAME
4 plays · 34 yds · 0:0912% → 16%
Q4 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
12.1%
Brandon Harris pass complete to Travin Dural for 22 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
14.4%
Brandon Harris run for 12 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
16.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
15.7%
Brandon Harris pass intercepted Will Redmond return for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:27
Brandon Harris pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 30 yds for a TD, (Colby Delahoussaye KICK)
+21.5
TD · Q3 9:35
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 74 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
-16
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-15.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com