Try the model
MSST

Mississippi State 35 at South Alabama 3

USA
2014 · Week 3 · Sep 13, 2014 · Ladd Peebles Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · USA
modelUSA aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playUSA scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:11 · Devon Bell punt for 56 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 145Home team on offense−45.9Pregame prior−13.1Score differential−29.7Garbage-time factor−14.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 9:30: Aleem Sunanon 26 yd FG GOOD — USA win probability +3.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: USA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:00: Josh Robinson run for 2 yds for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +5.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:27: Jameon Lewis pass complete to Dak Prescott for 24 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +7.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q2 4:20: Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jameon Lewis, broken up by Antonio Carter — MSST win probability +2.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 2:58: Josh Robinson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +5.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USA made the numbers' call on 6 of 10MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:55USA 4th & 10 at USA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:06MSST 4th & 16 at MSST 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:48USA 4th & 2 at MSST 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.7%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    23.9%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:10USA 4th & 11 at MSST 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    23.1%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 30, up 7
    Close callPunted · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:30USA 4th & 9 at MSST 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.3%
    89% to make
    Punt
    20.3%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:00USA 4th & 4 at USA 31, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.5%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:58USA 4th & 6 at MSST 48, down 25
    Close callPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00USA 4th & 15 at MSST 49, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%−2.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:39MSST 4th & 1 at USA 8, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    96.2%−1.0
    90% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−3.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:30USA 4th & 8 at USA 6, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:11MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 44, up 32
    Close callPunted · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:14USA 4th & 1 at USA 29, down 32
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 48, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:28USA 4th & 10 at MSST 35, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:14MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 40, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 4:56MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 7:00MSST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:27MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:58MSST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:17MSST Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
14.9%
Nick Griffin run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
14.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jameon LewisSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
14.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 3 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+7
14.9%
Devon Bell punt for 37 yds , T.J. Glover returns for 7 yds to the SAlab 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.4%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Wes SaxtonSimilar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+6
15.4%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jereme Jones for 6 yds to the SAlab 42Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 4
OWN 42
+6
15.4%
Brandon Bridge run for 6 yds to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
15.5%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the SAlab 48Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
15.4%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
15.4%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to N/A SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 13:55
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
15.4%
Brandon McKee punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
16.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the MisSt 9Similar
Q1 12:06
1ST & 15
OWN 9
+5
16.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 5 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 12:06
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+3
16.3%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 12:06
3RD & 7
OWN 17
-9
16.3%
Dak Prescott sacked by Theo Rich for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 8Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 16
OWN 8
0
16.4%
Devon Bell punt for 25 yds, downed at the MisSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 4MISSED FG
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:3818% → 19%
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
17.5%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Wes Saxton for 8 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 2
OPP 25
-4
17.5%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jereme Jones for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+7
17.4%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 7 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
17.5%
Brandon Bridge run for 8 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 10:26
2ND & 2
OPP 14
0
17.5%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 10:26
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
17.4%
Xavier Johnson run for no gain to the MisSt 14Similar
Q1 7:48
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+31
18.7%
Aleem Sunanon 31 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Preston SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:5282% → 83%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
18.4%
Ashton Shumpert run for 9 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
18.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
18.3%
Ashton Shumpert rush for no gain to the MS31 (Harris, Maleki), PENALTY USA offside defense (Harper,DeMarion) 5 yards to the MS36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 5
OWN 36
+5
18.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 5 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
18.0%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-16
18.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to D.Wilson for 6 yards to the USA47, out-of-bounds, PENALTY MS pass interference (D.Wilson) 16 yards to the MS31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 20
OWN 31
+15
18.4%
Dak Prescott run for 15 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 5
OWN 46
+39
18.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 39 yds to the SAlab 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
16.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 15 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 9 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+13
17.6%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jereme Jones for 13 yds to the SAlab 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
17.7%
Brandon Bridge sacked for a loss of 4 yards to the SAlab 31 Brandon Bridge fumbled, recovered by MisSt Richie Brown , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FUMBLE
1 play · -5 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
16.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for a loss of 5 yards to the SAlab 36 Ashton Shumpert fumbled, forced by Maleki Harris, recovered by SAlab Jerome McClainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
18.0%
Jay Jones run for 3 yds to the SAlab 39Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+18
18.2%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jereme Jones for 18 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
18.6%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Wes Saxton for 4 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 6
OPP 39
-5
18.6%
Brandon Bridge sacked by Nelson Adams and Matthew Wells for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 44Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 11
OPP 44
0
18.1%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 4:10
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
17.7%
Brandon McKee punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 1:4082% → 81%
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
18.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malcolm JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-4
18.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (N/A) to the MisSt 4Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 14
OWN 4
+13
18.3%
Josh Robinson run for 13 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 1:40
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+4
18.3%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
18.1%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 20Similar
Q1 1:40
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+8
18.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 8 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 28
-10
18.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 4 yards to the MS32 (Harris, Maleki;Kelley, Jesse), PENALTY MS illegal block (D.Wilson) 10 yards to the MS18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 18
+12
19.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 12 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
18.7%
Devon Bell punt for 70 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 10FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 4:2819% → 24%
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
19.0%
Jay Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 18Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 12
OWN 18
+42
18.9%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 42 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
20.2%
Jay Jones run for 4 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+4
20.2%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 4 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+5
20.2%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Wes Saxton for 5 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+19
20.7%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Cameron Broadnax for 19 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
20.7%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for no gain to the MisSt 8Similar
Q2 13:58
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
20.7%
Brandon Bridge run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 9Similar
Q2 13:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
20.1%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
Q2 9:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
23.9%
Aleem Sunanon 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:3077% → 84%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
22.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred Brown, broken up by Montell GarnerSimilar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+5
23.0%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+7
23.0%
Dak Prescott run for 7 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+36
21.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 36 yds to the SOUTHALA 24 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
21.2%
Josh Robinson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 23Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 23
0
21.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to N/A, broken up by Roman BuchananSimilar
Q2 9:30
3RD & 9
OPP 23
+21
21.9%
Dak Prescott run for 19 yds to the SAlab 4 for a 1ST down SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, personal foul (Theo Rich) to the SAlab 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
16.4%
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
17.0%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Danny Woodson for 8 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-2
17.5%
Brandon Bridge run for a loss of 2 yards to the SAlab 31Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
16.9%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Danny WoodsonSimilar
Q2 7:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+11
16.5%
Brandon McKee punt for 32 yds , Jamoral Graham returns for 11 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13TD
5 plays · 52 yds · 1:2083% → 91%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
16.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 13 yds to the SAlab 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
16.7%
Brandon Holloway run for 1 yd to the SAlab 38Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
16.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Robert Johnson, broken up by Terrell BrighamSimilar
Q2 5:47
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+14
16.9%
Dak Prescott run for 14 yds to the SAlab 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
9.3%
Jameon Lewis pass complete to Dak Prescott for 24 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 14INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
11.9%
Brandon Bridge pass intercepted Will Redmond return for 5 yds to the SAlab 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 1:2290% → 96%
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
9.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jameon Lewis, broken up by Antonio CarterSimilar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+15
9.6%
Dak Prescott run for 15 yds to the SAlab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
9.3%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the SAlab 15Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+15
4.2%
Josh Robinson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 28 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
3.8%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Wes Saxton for 10 yds to the SAlab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
3.9%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Shavarez SmithSimilar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
3.9%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+14
3.8%
Brandon Bridge sacked by Chris Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the SAlab 33 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Chris Jones) to the SAlab 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
4.0%
Terrance Timmons run for 4 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 2:58
2ND & 6
OPP 48
0
4.1%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Danny Woodson, broken up by Matthew WellsSimilar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
4.0%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Shavarez SmithSimilar
Q2 2:58
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
4.1%
Brandon McKee punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17END OF HALF
5 plays · 37 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
3.7%
Josh Robinson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 1
OWN 25
+2
3.5%
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+17
3.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 17 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
3.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jameon Lewis, broken up by Terrell BrighamSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
3.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Robert Johnson for 9 yds to the SAlab 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 18PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
2.6%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jereme Jones for 21 yds to the SAlab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-7
2.8%
Brandon Bridge sacked by Preston Smith for a loss of 7 yards to the SAlab 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 39
+17
2.4%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jereme Jones for 17 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
2.9%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Shavarez Smith for 6 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 38
-5
3.0%
SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, false start (Clay Machen) to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
2.8%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Shavarez Smith, broken up by Jamerson LoveSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 43
-6
2.8%
Brandon Bridge sacked by Benardrick McKinney for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 15
OPP 49
0
2.5%
Brandon McKee punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jamoral Graham at the MisSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19FUMBLE
10 plays · 84 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+21
2.5%
Josh Robinson run for 21 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
2.5%
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 8
OWN 35
+9
2.5%
Josh Robinson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+13
2.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 13 yds to the SAlab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+26
2.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 26 yds to the SAlab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
2.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+7
2.2%
Nick Griffin run for 7 yds to the SAlab 10Similar
Q3 11:39
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+2
2.3%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the SAlab 8Similar
Q3 11:39
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+2
2.4%
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds to the SAlab 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 0
OPP 6
+1
2.1%
Josh Robinson run for 1 yd to the SAlab 4 Josh Robinson fumbled, forced by Maleki Harris, recovered by SAlab Terrell BrighamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
1.3%
Kendall Houston run for 2 yds to the SAlab 6Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 8
OWN 6
0
1.3%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 8
OWN 6
0
1.3%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Xavier JohnsonSimilar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 8
OWN 6
+2
1.3%
Brandon McKee punt for 36 yds , Jamoral Graham returns for 2 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21TD
1 play · 40 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
1.3%
Dak Prescott run for 40 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 22FUMBLE
16 plays · 49 yds · 3:572% → 1%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.8%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Wes Saxton for no gain to the SAlab 25Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
1.7%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Marvin Shinn, broken up by Taveze CalhounSimilar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+11
1.1%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Marvin Shinn for 11 yds to the SAlab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
1.2%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Cameron Broadnax, broken up by Christian HolmesSimilar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
1.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, offside defense (A.J. Jefferson) to the SAlab 41Similar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+3
1.2%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Wes Saxton for 3 yds to the SAlab 44Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+7
1.2%
Jay Jones run for 7 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
1.3%
Jay Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 6:33
2ND & 11
50
+7
1.2%
Brandon Bridge run for 7 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 6:33
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+5
1.2%
Brandon Bridge pass complete to Jereme Jones for 5 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+20
1.3%
Brandon Bridge run for 20 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
1.4%
Brandon Bridge pass incomplete to Jake Howton, broken up by Kivon ComanSimilar
Q3 3:20
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+9
1.0%
Brandon Bridge sacked by Preston Smith for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 35 Brandon Bridge fumbled, recovered by MisSt Benardrick McKinney , return for 0 yards , return for 9 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
0.8%
Nick Griffin run for 6 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 3:11
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
0.7%
Nick Griffin run for 3 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 3:11
3RD & 1
OWN 44
0
0.7%
Nick Griffin run for no gain to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 1
OWN 44
0
1.0%
Devon Bell punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.7%
Matt Floyd run for no gain to the SAlab 20Similar
Q3 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
0.7%
Matt Floyd pass incomplete to Cameron BroadnaxSimilar
Q3 1:14
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+9
0.7%
Matt Floyd pass complete to Danny Woodson for 9 yds to the SAlab 29Similar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
0.7%
Brandon McKee punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jamoral Graham at the MisSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-10
0.5%
B.Holloway rush for loss of 1 yard to the MS28 (Garner, Montell), PENALTY MS holding (Rufus Warren) 10 yards to the MS19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 19
+4
0.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 23
+5
0.5%
Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 28
+16
0.5%
Dak Prescott run for 16 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-5
0.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, false start (Devon Desper) to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 39
+1
0.5%
Damian Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 40
+1
0.5%
Damian Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 41
+7
0.5%
Damian Williams run for 7 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
0.5%
Devon Bell punt for 40 yds, downed at the SAlab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 26DOWNS
10 plays · 53 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+9
0.2%
Matt Floyd pass complete to Terrance Timmons for 9 yds to the SAlab 21Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+1
0.2%
Matt Floyd pass complete to Cameron Broadnax for 1 yd to the SAlab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+10
0.2%
Kendall Houston run for 10 yds to the SAlab 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
0.2%
Kendall Houston run for 6 yds to the SAlab 38Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 4
OWN 38
0
0.2%
Matt Floyd pass incomplete to Jereme JonesSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+27
0.2%
Matt Floyd pass complete to Marvin Shinn for 27 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
0.3%
Matt Floyd pass incomplete to Marvin ShinnSimilar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
0.2%
Matt Floyd pass incomplete to Danny WoodsonSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 10
OPP 35
0
0.2%
Matt Floyd pass incomplete to Danny WoodsonSimilar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
0.2%
Matt Floyd pass incomplete to Braedon BowmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
0.2%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
0.2%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 7:14
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-1
0.2%
Damian Williams pass complete to Jamoral Graham for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 7:14
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
0.2%
Devon Bell punt for 49 yds, downed at the SAlab 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USADrive 28INT
9 plays · 56 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
0.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 6 yds to the SAlab 17Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+3
0.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 3 yds to the SAlab 20Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+8
0.1%
Xavier Johnson run for 8 yds to the SAlab 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
0.1%
Matt Floyd pass incomplete to Jake HowtonSimilar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+10
0.1%
Matt Floyd pass complete to Claude Garrett for 10 yds to the SAlab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
0.1%
Matt Floyd pass complete to Claude Garrett for 15 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
0.1%
Matt Floyd pass complete to Danny Woodson for 14 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
0.2%
Matt Floyd pass incomplete to Danny WoodsonSimilar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+45
0.1%
Matt Floyd pass intercepted Tolando Cleveland return for 45 yds to the SAlab 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 29END OF HALF
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
0.1%
Brandon Holloway run for 7 yds to the SAlab 33Similar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+2
0.1%
Damian Williams pass complete to Gabe Myles for 2 yds to the SAlab 31Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+4
0.1%
Damian Williams run for 4 yds to the SAlab 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
0.1%
Brandon Holloway run for 8 yds to the SAlab 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:27
Jameon Lewis pass complete to Dak Prescott for 24 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
-7.6
TD · Q2 7:00
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds for a TD SOUTH ALABAMA Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
-5.5
TD · Q2 2:58
Josh Robinson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
-5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com