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TA&M

Texas A&M 31 at Mississippi State 48

MSST
2014 · Week 6 · Oct 4, 2014 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:26 · Logan Cooke punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Speedy Noil at the TexAM 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginPregame prior
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 124Home team on offense+19.3Score differential+9.6Garbage-time factor+9.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7Blowout margin−0.5Pregame prior−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:13: Josh Robinson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +4.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:33: Dak Prescott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +8.0 pts (now 70%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:02: Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 9 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +13.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:02: Josh Lambo 27 yd FG GOOD — TA&M win probability +7.8 pts (now 21%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:33: Kenny Hill pass complete to Speedy Noil for 23 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK) — TA&M win probability +6.2 pts (now 11%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 5TA&M made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 9:14TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:49TA&M 4th & 1 at MSST 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.9%−0.4
    80% to make
    Punt
    48.8%−1.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:21MSST 4th & 6 at TA&M 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    50.5%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:50TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:22TA&M 4th & 7 at TA&M 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:02TA&M 4th & 3 at MSST 9, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 13.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.8%−0.6
    89% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−7.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:01MSST 4th & 6 at TA&M 25, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%−<0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    78.9%−7.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:05TA&M 4th & 5 at TA&M 30, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.2%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:26MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 32, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−1.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:19TA&M 4th & 10 at TA&M 39, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:27TA&M 4th & 9 at TA&M 38, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:02MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 20, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:34TA&M 4th & 6 at TA&M 39, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:05TA&M 4th & 20 at MSST 42, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:43MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 28, up 31
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:29TA&M 4th & 2 at MSST 6, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TA&M made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:19TA&M Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 10:30MSST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:13MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:33MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:02MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:33TA&M Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:08MSST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:19MSST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:29TA&M Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:25TA&M Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TA&MDrive 1TD
7 plays · 69 yds · 1:2652% → 53%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
47.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Tra Carson for 7 yds to the TexAM 38Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+4
47.8%
Tra Carson run for 4 yds to the TexAM 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+29
47.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Edward Pope for 29 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
47.8%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+16
47.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 16 yds to the MisSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
47.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 13 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4848% → 49%
Q1 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
47.5%
Josh Robinson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-8
47.6%
Dak Prescott sacked by Myles Garrett for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 23Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+10
47.2%
Prescott, Dak pass incomplete to Johnson, Robert, PENALTY TEXASAM holding (Harris, De'Vante) 10 yards to the MISSSTATE33, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
47.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 4 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+9
47.4%
Gabe Myles run for 9 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
47.5%
Prescott, Dak pass complete to Wilson, De'Runnya for 6 yards to the TEXASAM48, PENALTY MISSSTATE illegal formation 5 yards to the MISSSTATE41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+54
47.4%
Josh Robinson run for 49 yds to the MISSSTATE 10 for a 1ST down TEXAS A&M Penalty, Personal Foul (Qualen Cunningham) to the TexAM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
47.7%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the TexAM 1Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.4%
Josh Robinson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 3FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0651% → 51%
Q1 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
48.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 24Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
48.8%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 4 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
49.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Sabian HolmesSimilar
Q1 9:14
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
49.3%
Drew Kaser punt for 46 yds , Jamoral Graham returns for no gain to the MisSt 26 Jamoral Graham fumbled, recovered by TexAM Alex FreemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1152% → 51%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
48.0%
Brandon Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
47.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+7
48.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 7 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 7:49
4TH & 1
OPP 17
-3
48.7%
Tra Carson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:2149% → 50%
Q1 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
49.1%
Prescott, Dak pass incomplete to Wilson, De'Runnya, PENALTY TEXASAM holding 10 yards to the MISSSTATE30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
49.2%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+8
49.2%
Josh Robinson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+14
49.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 14 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
50.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya Wilson, broken up by De'Vante HarrisSimilar
Q1 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+5
50.3%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q1 5:55
3RD & 5
OPP 43
-1
50.4%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 44Similar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
49.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Speedy Noil at the TexAM 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 2:2250% → 50%
Q1 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
49.6%
Tra Carson run for 5 yds to the TexAM 11Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+10
49.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 10 yds to the TexAM 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
49.5%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+12
49.5%
Kenny Hill run for 12 yds to the TexAM 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
49.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 4 yds to the TexAM 40Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
48.8%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Sabian HolmesSimilar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
49.3%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q1 2:50
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+15
50.2%
Drew Kaser punt for 41 yds , Jamoral Graham returns for 15 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
8 plays · 66 yds · 2:3250% → 58%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
50.3%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+22
51.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 22 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
51.9%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+6
52.1%
Josh Robinson run for 6 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+3
52.0%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+22
52.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 22 yds to the TexAM 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
52.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 6 yds to the TexAM 2Similar
Q1 0:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
57.6%
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:3944% → 43%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
55.8%
Brandon Williams run for 8 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
54.8%
Kenny Hill run for 10 yds to the TexAM 43 Kenny Hill fumbled, recovered by TexAMSimilar
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
55.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 6 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 4
OWN 49
-3
54.7%
Kenny Hill sacked by Benardrick McKinney for a loss of 3 yards to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 13:30
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
55.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 13:22
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
56.9%
Drew Kaser punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jamoral Graham at the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
12 plays · 87 yds · 4:4757% → 70%
Q2 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
57.1%
Dak Prescott run for 9 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 1
OWN 22
0
57.7%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 12:20
3RD & 1
OWN 22
+6
57.2%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+32
58.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 32 yds to the TexAM 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
59.7%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the TexAM 39Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+20
60.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jamoral Graham for 20 yds to the TexAM 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
60.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 3 yds to the TexAM 16Similar
Q2 10:35
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+5
60.6%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the TexAM 11Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+5
61.0%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the TexAM 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
61.4%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the TexAM 4Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
61.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 3 yds to the TexAM 1Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.8%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10INT
10 plays · 41 yds · 2:1533% → 32%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
67.4%
Tra Carson run for 8 yds to the TexAM 33Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
66.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 6 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
67.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 9 yds to the TexAM 48Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+3
66.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 3 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
67.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Boone NiederhoferSimilar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+12
68.1%
Kenny Hill run for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
67.6%
Trey Williams run for 3 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
66.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Kyrion ParkerSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+30
68.2%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Richie Brown return for 30 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:3972% → 72%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
71.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Blaine Clausell) to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 5:55
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+3
71.1%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 12
OPP 49
0
71.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for no gain Josh Robinson fumbled, forced by Devonta Burns, recovered by TexAM De'Vante HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2931% → 30%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
69.0%
Brandon Williams run for no gain to the TexAM 49Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
69.9%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Richie Brown return for 5 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:3373% → 89%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
72.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 6 yds to the TexAM 41Similar
Q2 4:10
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+6
73.2%
Brandon Holloway run for 6 yds to the TexAM 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
73.5%
Dak Prescott run for 6 yds to the TexAM 29Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+9
74.3%
Dak Prescott run for 9 yds to the TexAM 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
74.9%
Gabe Myles pass complete to Dak Prescott for 11 yds to the TexAM 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
75.2%
Ashton Shumpert run for no gain to the TexAM 9Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
75.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q2 2:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
88.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 9 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14DOWNS
13 plays · 74 yds · 1:4313% → 21%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
86.6%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Tra Carson for 1 yd to the TexAM 18Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+8
87.0%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 8 yds to the TexAM 26Similar
Q2 1:15
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+4
86.6%
Kenny Hill run for 4 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
86.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Edward Pope for 9 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+10
86.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 10 yds to the TexAM 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+21
86.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Speedy Noil for 21 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
85.5%
Kenny Hill run for 14 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
85.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q2 0:12
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+7
85.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 7 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 3
OPP 9
0
86.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 3
OPP 9
+27
78.6%
Josh Lambo 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16MISSED FG
10 plays · 51 yds · 1:4481% → 86%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
80.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 17 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
81.5%
Dak Prescott run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 1
50
+6
84.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 6 yds to the TexAM 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
86.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 9 yds to the TexAM 35Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+6
86.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jamoral Graham for 6 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
86.3%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
86.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jamoral GrahamSimilar
Q3 13:10
3RD & 6
OPP 25
0
86.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Josh RobinsonSimilar
Q3 13:01
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+42
85.9%
Evan Sobiesk 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:3017% → 15%
Q3 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 7 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-11
82.7%
Kenny Hill sacked by Preston Smith and P.J. Jones for a loss of 11 yards to the TexAM 21Similar
Q3 11:41
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+9
84.4%
Kenny Hill run for 9 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q3 11:05
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
84.6%
Drew Kaser punt for 42 yds, downed at the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3489% → 89%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
88.5%
Josh Robinson run for 7 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 3
OWN 35
-6
89.0%
Dak Prescott sacked by Alonzo Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 29Similar
Q3 9:55
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+3
89.1%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
89.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Speedy Noil at the TexAM 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:5613% → 12%
Q3 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
87.5%
Brandon Williams run for 4 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+14
87.3%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Kyrion Parker for 14 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
87.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Boone NiederhoferSimilar
Q3 8:34
2ND & 10
OWN 39
0
87.4%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 10
OWN 39
0
88.0%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Ricky Seals-JonesSimilar
Q3 8:19
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
88.4%
Drew Kaser punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Jamoral Graham at the MisSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
5 plays · 84 yds · 1:3791% → 95%
Q3 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+17
90.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Nick Griffin for 17 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
90.8%
Brandon Holloway run for 13 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+51
91.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 51 yds to the TexAM 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
91.7%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the TexAM 2Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.2%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 2:375% → 11%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
94.9%
Tra Carson run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexAM 20Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+8
95.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 8 yds to the TexAM 28Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+10
95.0%
Hill, Kenny pass incomplete to Niederhofer, Boone, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (McKinney, Benardrick) 10 yards to the TEXASAM38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
95.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sabian Holmes for 1 yd to the TexAM 39Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+26
95.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Sabian Holmes for 26 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
95.4%
Trey Williams run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 4:08
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
95.5%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Sabian HolmesSimilar
Q3 3:55
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+11
95.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 11 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
95.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for no gain to the MisSt 23Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+23
89.2%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Speedy Noil for 23 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:0792% → 98%
Q3 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
91.5%
Josh Robinson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
91.9%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
92.3%
Dak Prescott run for 13 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
92.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jamoral GrahamSimilar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+51
97.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 51 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 23PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:083% → 2%
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
97.4%
Tra Carson run for 7 yds to the TexAM 15Similar
Q3 1:25
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+3
97.3%
Tra Carson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
97.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Boone NiederhoferSimilar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+6
97.4%
Kenny Hill run for 6 yds to the TexAM 24Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+13
97.7%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 13 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
97.6%
Trey Williams run for 1 yd to the TexAM 38Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
97.6%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Edward PopeSimilar
Q4 14:35
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
97.8%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q4 14:27
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
97.9%
Drew Kaser punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jamoral Graham at the MisSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5898% → 98%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
98.1%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
98.2%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+6
98.2%
Josh Robinson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 13:02
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
98.2%
Logan Cooke punt for 45 yds, downed at the TexAM 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 25INT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:232% → 2%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
98.2%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Edward PopeSimilar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 35
-9
98.2%
Kenny Hill sacked by A.J. Jefferson for a loss of 9 yards to the TexAM 26Similar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 19
OWN 26
+13
98.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Tra Carson for 13 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 6
OWN 39
+19
98.4%
Kenny Hill pass intercepted Richie Brown return for 19 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 1:1199% → 100%
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+20
98.6%
Gabe Myles run for 20 yds to the TexAM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-6
98.7%
Dak Prescott sacked by Julien Obioha for a loss of 6 yards to the TexAM 11Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
99.8%
Dak Prescott run for 11 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 27PUNT
9 plays · 47 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+8
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Jeremy Tabuyo for 8 yds to the TexAM 19Similar
Q4 9:35
2ND & 2
OWN 19
+1
99.9%
Kenny Hill run for 1 yd to the TexAM 20Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+48
99.9%
Trey Williams run for 48 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
99.9%
Kenny Hill sacked by A.J. Jefferson and Ryan Brown for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 20
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Tra CarsonSimilar
Q4 8:14
3RD & 20
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Speedy NoilSimilar
Q4 8:05
4TH & 20
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Drew Kaser punt for 36 yds, downed at the MisSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:17100% → 100%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
99.9%
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+11
99.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 11 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
99.9%
Nick Griffin run for 2 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+7
99.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 7 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 5:45
3RD & 1
OWN 28
0
99.9%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 4:43
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+22
99.9%
Logan Cooke punt for 51 yds , Speedy Noil returns for 22 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 29TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 2:010% → 1%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 6 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Ricky Seals-Jones for 5 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
99.9%
Tra Carson run for 15 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+17
99.9%
Tra Carson run for 17 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Josh ReynoldsSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+8
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 8 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
99.9%
Kenny Hill pass incomplete to Edward PopeSimilar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+6
99.4%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Speedy Noil for 6 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 30TD
5 plays · 49 yds · 0:501% → 3%
Q4 2:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
99.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 7 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
99.4%
Tra Carson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+17
99.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Boone Niederhofer for 17 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
97.5%
Kenny Hill pass complete to Josh Reynolds for 23 yds for a TD, (Josh Lambo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 31END OF GAME
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
98.9%
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 8
OPP 43
-1
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 44Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 9
OPP 44
-1
99.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:02
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 9 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
+13.3
TD · Q2 8:33
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
+8
FG · Q2 0:02
Josh Lambo 27 yd FG GOOD
-7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com