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MSST

Mississippi State 34 at Georgia Tech 49

GT
2014 · Postseason · Dec 31, 2014 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · GT
modelGT aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playGT scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:36 · Devon Bell punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jamal Golden at the GTech 12
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 27Pregame prior−20.1Home team on offense+1.5Score differential+0.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:29: Justin Thomas 13 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +10.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:00: Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 42 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +14.6 pts (now 59%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 14:05: Synjyn Days 69 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +15.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 7:58: Justin Thomas 32 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick) — GT win probability +12.2 pts (now 81%) (top driver: GT has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:53: Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK) — MSST win probability +11.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
GT made the numbers' call on 1 of 3MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 9:24MSST 4th & 4 at GT 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    62.3%−0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    62.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:56GT 4th & 4 at GT 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:36MSST 4th & 14 at MSST 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.3%−0.4
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:57MSST 4th & 9 at GT 15, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−1.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    40.7%−6.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:00GT 4th & 5 at GT 40, up 11
    Close callPunted · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:12MSST 4th & 7 at GT 13, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.1%
    85% to make
    Punt
    48.1%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q3 11:03MSST 4th & 21 at GT 36, down 8
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.9 ptsWent for it · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.4%−2.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    35.2%
    42% to make
    Punt
    34.6%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q4 9:48MSST 4th & 5 at GT 5, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.9%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    -0.6%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q4 3:58GT 4th & 13 at GT 38, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 3:01MSST 4th & 7 at GT 49, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
GT made the numbers' call on 7 of 7MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:38GT Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:37GT Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:53MSST Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:29GT Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:00MSST Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:05GT Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:58GT Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:17GT Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 14:53MSST Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 11:54GT Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:20MSST Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1INT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:4373% → 72%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
27.5%
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
27.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 5 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
27.8%
Dak Prescott pass intercepted Chris Milton return for no gain to the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 2TD
4 plays · 36 yds · 1:2028% → 30%
Q1 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
28.0%
Charles Perkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+23
28.2%
Charles Perkins run for 23 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:02
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+14
28.6%
Deon Hill run for 14 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.5%
Synjyn Days run for 3 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:0071% → 68%
Q1 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
29.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Brown for 6 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+14
29.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 14 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-10
29.8%
Robinson, Josh rush for 6 yards to the MISSSTATE45, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Day, Dillon) 10 yards to the MISSSTATE29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:31
1ST & 20
OWN 29
0
30.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malcolm Johnson, broken up by D.J. WhiteSimilar
Q1 11:22
2ND & 20
OWN 29
+11
30.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 11 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+22
30.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 7 yds to the GTech 47 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Roughing Passer (Quayshawn Nealy) to the GTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
30.0%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the GTech 36Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+1
30.0%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the GTech 35Similar
Q1 11:00
3RD & 7
OPP 35
+3
30.1%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q1 9:24
4TH & 4
OPP 32
0
31.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jameon LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0732% → 33%
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
32.4%
Synjyn Days run for 3 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q1 8:44
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
32.5%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Darren WallerSimilar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+3
32.4%
Deon Hill run for 3 yds to the GTech 38Similar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
33.0%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1567% → 65%
Q1 7:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
32.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Joe MorrowSimilar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
33.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 2 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-6
33.4%
Dak Prescott sacked by Roderick Rook-Chungong for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 14
OWN 37
0
34.6%
Devon Bell punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jamal Golden at the GTech 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 6TD
9 plays · 88 yds · 4:5234% → 46%
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
34.3%
B.J. Bostic run for 5 yds to the GTech 17Similar
Q1 5:48
2ND & 5
OWN 17
+4
34.9%
Justin Thomas run for 4 yds to the GTech 21Similar
Q1 5:17
3RD & 1
OWN 21
+3
35.1%
Zach Laskey run for 3 yds to the GTech 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
36.1%
Deon Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 23Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+6
36.5%
Charles Perkins run for 6 yds to the GTech 29Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+19
36.8%
Justin Thomas run for 19 yds to the GTech 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
38.7%
Justin Thomas sacked by A.J. Jefferson for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 45 Justin Thomas fumbled, forced by A.J. Jefferson, recovered by GTech Bryan Chamberlain , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 1:56
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+14
38.6%
Justin Thomas run for 14 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
45.6%
Darren Waller 41 Yd pass from Justin Thomas (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 3:2657% → 56%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
43.3%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
44.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 0:29
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+8
44.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Robert Johnson for 8 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
44.4%
Josh Robinson run for 18 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
44.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jameon LewisSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
44.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 9 yds to the GTech 31Similar
Q2 14:29
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
44.1%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the GTech 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+9
43.9%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 9 yds to the GTech 20Similar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 1
OPP 20
+4
44.6%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the GTech 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
44.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Josh RobinsonSimilar
Q2 13:26
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+1
45.1%
Josh Robinson run for 1 yd to the GTech 15Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 9
OPP 15
0
46.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya Wilson, broken up by D.J. WhiteSimilar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 9
OPP 15
+32
43.7%
Evan Sobiesk 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5145% → 47%
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
45.4%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Darren Waller for 7 yds to the GTech 42Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-1
47.2%
Charles Perkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 41Similar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-1
47.0%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the GTech 40Similar
Q2 11:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+17
46.6%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 32 yds , Fred Ross returns for 17 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
4 plays · 55 yds · 0:5955% → 64%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+32
45.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 32 yds to the GTech 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+14
44.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 14 yds to the GTech 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
44.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 4 yds to the GTech 5Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
36.3%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 10INT
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:2740% → 43%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.9%
Synjyn Days run for 1 yd to the GTech 26Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
40.1%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Micheal Summers for 6 yds to the GTech 32Similar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+39
40.3%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Darren Waller for 39 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-4
44.4%
Justin Thomas run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 14
OPP 33
0
43.7%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Charles PerkinsSimilar
Q2 7:13
3RD & 14
OPP 33
0
42.8%
Justin Thomas pass intercepted Beniquez Brown return for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11FG
8 plays · 62 yds · 1:5158% → 59%
Q2 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
41.6%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+15
42.1%
Dak Prescott run for 15 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
40.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 18 yds to the GTech 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+27
39.6%
Josh Robinson run for 12 yds to the GTech 31 for a 1ST down GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (D.J. White) to the GTech 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
38.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jameon LewisSimilar
Q2 5:36
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
38.8%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the GTech 13Similar
Q2 5:17
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
40.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malcolm JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+30
40.7%
Evan Sobiesk 30 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 12TD
14 plays · 82 yds · 4:2743% → 60%
Q2 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
42.9%
Charles Perkins run for 8 yds to the GTech 26Similar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 2
OWN 26
+6
44.2%
Synjyn Days run for 6 yds to the GTech 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
43.9%
B.J. Bostic run for 10 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+11
45.7%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Darren Waller for 11 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
47.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Micheal Summers for 5 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 2:24
2ND & 5
OPP 42
-1
47.3%
Deon Hill run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 1:56
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+16
47.0%
Justin Thomas pass complete to Darren Waller for 16 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
48.6%
Justin Thomas run for 5 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+4
49.0%
Synjyn Days run for 4 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+4
47.8%
Synjyn Days run for 4 yds to the MisSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
49.6%
Dennis Andrews run for 1 yd to the MisSt 13Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
59.9%
Justin Thomas 13 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13END OF HALF
11 plays · 72 yds · 0:2944% → 59%
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-5
55.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Blaine Clausell) to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 15
OWN 23
0
56.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q2 0:18
2ND & 15
OWN 23
+11
56.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 11 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+10
56.6%
Josh Robinson run for 10 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+14
57.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 14 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
41.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 42 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 14TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:4246% → 61%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.2%
Charles Perkins run for 6 yds to the GTech 31Similar
Q3 14:05
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+69
61.2%
Synjyn Days 69 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15DOWNS
12 plays · 56 yds · 2:5542% → 38%
Q3 13:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
58.5%
Josh Robinson run for 18 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
57.2%
Josh Robinson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
56.1%
Josh Robinson run for no gain to the MisSt 48Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 5
OWN 48
+10
57.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 10 yds to the GTech 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+17
56.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 17 yds to the GTech 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
54.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the GTech 30Similar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+4
56.5%
Dak Prescott run for 4 yds to the GTech 26Similar
Q3 11:39
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-10
55.7%
Prescott, Dak rush for 1 yard to the GATECH25, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Day, Dillon) 10 yards to the GATECH36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & 21
OPP 36
0
59.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jameon LewisSimilar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 21
OPP 36
0
60.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Josh RobinsonSimilar
Q3 11:03
4TH & 21
OPP 36
+17
62.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 17 yds to the GTech 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 16TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 2:5863% → 81%
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
63.0%
Synjyn Days run for 9 yds to the GTech 28Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+16
64.6%
Synjyn Days run for 16 yds to the GTech 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
66.7%
Synjyn Days run for 7 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+7
67.5%
Synjyn Days run for 7 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
68.3%
Zach Laskey run for 8 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+2
69.1%
Zach Laskey run for 2 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
81.3%
Justin Thomas 32 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17FUMBLE
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:0222% → 24%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+20
77.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 20 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+18
76.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 18 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
75.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 6 yds to the GTech 45Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 4
OPP 45
-3
76.4%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 3 yards to the GTech 48 Dak Prescott fumbled, forced by Jamal Golden, recovered by GTech Roderick Rook-ChungongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 18TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:1383% → 95%
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
82.7%
Synjyn Days run for 7 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
83.3%
Justin Thomas pass incomplete to Synjyn DaysSimilar
Q3 5:49
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+6
83.1%
Synjyn Days run for 6 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+21
86.4%
Charles Perkins run for 21 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
87.2%
Synjyn Days run for 3 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+15
95.2%
Justin Thomas 15 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 4:116% → 15%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
94.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Ashton ShumpertSimilar
Q3 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+13
94.4%
Ashton Shumpert run for 13 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
94.3%
Dak Prescott run for 7 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 3:02
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+7
94.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for 7 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
94.9%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+7
95.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 7 yds to the GTech 49Similar
Q3 2:02
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+3
96.0%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the GTech 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
96.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Jameon Lewis for 13 yds to the GTech 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
95.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 12 yds to the GTech 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
95.7%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the GTech 16Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+5
96.2%
Jameon Lewis run for 5 yds to the GTech 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
96.3%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the GTech 7Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
84.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 20TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:3391% → 99%
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
91.2%
Zach Laskey run for 6 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+8
91.6%
Zach Laskey run for 8 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
91.9%
Zach Laskey run for 7 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+20
92.5%
Zach Laskey run for 20 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
92.8%
Zach Laskey run for 1 yd to the MisSt 4Similar
Q4 11:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
93.5%
Justin Thomas pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
98.7%
Synjyn Days run for 4 yds for a TD, (Harrison Butker KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21DOWNS
10 plays · 70 yds · 1:552% → 2%
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+35
98.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 35 yds to the GTech 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
97.9%
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds to the GTech 38Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 8
OPP 38
0
98.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya WilsonSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+18
98.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 18 yds to the GTech 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
97.7%
Dak Prescott run for 12 yds to the GTech 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.8%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya Wilson, broken up by D.J. WhiteSimilar
Q4 10:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
97.8%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the GTech 5Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.0%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred Ross, broken up by Quayshawn NealySimilar
Q4 9:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
98.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Josh RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 22PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 5:3799% → 99%
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
98.8%
Synjyn Days run for 2 yds to the GTech 8Similar
Q4 9:05
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+2
98.9%
Justin Thomas run for 2 yds to the GTech 10Similar
Q4 8:27
3RD & 6
OWN 10
+20
99.0%
Justin Thomas run for 20 yds to the GTech 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
99.1%
Justin Thomas run for 5 yds to the GTech 35Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+6
99.2%
Zach Laskey run for 6 yds to the GTech 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
99.3%
Zach Laskey run for 2 yds to the GTech 43Similar
Q4 5:58
2ND & 8
OWN 43
-13
99.4%
Synjyn Days run for 2 yds to the GTech 45 GEORGIA TECH Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the GTech 30Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 21
OWN 30
+8
99.4%
Deon Hill run for 8 yds to the GTech 38Similar
Q4 4:25
3RD & 13
OWN 38
0
99.4%
Justin Thomas run for no gain to the GTech 38Similar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 13
OWN 38
+34
99.4%
Ryan Rodwell punt for 48 yds , Fred Ross returns for 34 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 1:241% → 5%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-6
99.2%
Dak Prescott sacked by Adam Gotsis for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+9
99.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Robert Johnson for 9 yds to the GTech 49Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
99.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred BrownSimilar
Q4 3:01
4TH & 7
OPP 49
+11
99.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 11 yds to the GTech 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+26
99.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Joe Morrow for 26 yds to the GTech 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
95.3%
De'Runnya Wilson 12 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Evan Sobiesk Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
GTDrive 24END OF GAME
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5798% → 99%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
97.7%
Synjyn Days run for 1 yd to the MisSt 43Similar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+6
98.2%
Synjyn Days run for 6 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+7
98.5%
Synjyn Days run for 7 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
98.6%
Synjyn Days run for 4 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q4 0:11
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-1
98.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:05
Synjyn Days 69 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)
+15
TD · Q2 0:00
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 42 yds for a TD, (Evan Sobiesk KICK)
-14.6
TD · Q3 7:58
Justin Thomas 32 Yd Run (Harrison Butker Kick)
+12.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com