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AUB

Auburn 23 at Mississippi State 38

MSST
2014 · Week 7 · Oct 11, 2014 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:44 · Logan Cooke punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Quan Bray at the Aub 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+30.0+15.00−15.0−30.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Home team on offense+13.8Pregame prior−3.0Score differential+3.0Garbage-time factor+8.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Time remaining−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 14:57: Daniel Carlson 21 Yd Field Goal — AUB win probability +5.8 pts (now 41%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:26: D'haquille Williams 9 Yd pass from Nick Marshall (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +7.5 pts (now 43%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:58: Dak Prescott 15 Yd Run (Evan Sobiesk Kick) — MSST win probability +9.3 pts (now 73%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:09: D'haquille Williams 15 Yd pass from Nick Marshall (Daniel Carlson Kick) — AUB win probability +12.0 pts (now 32%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:07: Josh Robinson 1 Yd Run (Evan Sobiesk Kick) — MSST win probability +7.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 7AUB made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:40MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:33AUB 4th & 11 at AUB 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%−0.8
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:18AUB 4th & 10 at MSST 11, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.6%
    87% to make
    Punt
    33.1%−3.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:34MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 28, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    64.3%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:57AUB 4th & 4 at MSST 4, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    31.6%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    26.3%−5.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:17AUB 4th & 5 at MSST 5, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.2%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.3%
    92% to make
    Punt
    22.9%−9.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:20AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 33, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:43AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 43, down 15
    Close callPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:31AUB 4th & 19 at AUB 16, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−3.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:04MSST 4th & 4 at AUB 40, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    79.7%−2.0
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.1%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:36MSST 4th & 3 at MSST 43, up 8
    Close callPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.7%−0.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:44AUB 4th & 10 at AUB 47, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−1.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:44MSST 4th & 14 at MSST 22, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−5.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:54AUB 4th & 5 at AUB 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−1.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:33MSST 4th & 2 at AUB 3, up 8
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.4%
    49% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.1%−2.3
    93% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−11.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:43AUB 4th & 2 at MSST 25, down 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.7%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−2.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:56MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 26, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.1%−0.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5AUB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:41MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:30MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 6:09MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:26AUB Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:58MSST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:09AUB Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:07MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1638% → 39%
Q1 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
38.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
38.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 13:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-1
38.7%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 13:40
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+29
38.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Quan Bray at the MISSSTATE 35 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the Aub 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
38.8%
Nick Marshall pass intercepted Jay Hughes return for 18 yds to the Aub 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
3 plays · 33 yds · 0:1939% → 40%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
39.4%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 34 Dak Prescott fumbled, recovered by MisSt Dak PrescottSimilar
Q1 12:51
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
39.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gabe Myles, broken up by DaVonte LambertSimilar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+34
40.2%
De'Runnya Wilson 34 Yd pass from Dak Prescott (Evan Sobiesk Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
40.1%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 7 yds D'haquille Williams fumbled, forced by Taveze Calhoun, recovered by MisSt Benardrick McKinneySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:5841% → 42%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
40.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jamoral GrahamSimilar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+6
40.9%
Josh Robinson run for 6 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+25
41.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 25 yds to the Aub 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.4%
Josh Robinson 1 Yd Run (Evan Sobiesk Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:3558% → 55%
Q1 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
42.4%
Corey Grant run for 7 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+1
42.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the Aub 23Similar
Q1 10:21
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+4
43.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
43.7%
Nick Marshall sacked by Kaleb Eulls and Beniquez Brown for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 11
OWN 26
-10
44.2%
Marshall, Nick pass complete to Williams, D'haquille for 27 yards to the MISSSTATE47, PENALTY AUBURN holding (Coleman, Shon) 10 yards to the AUBURN16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 21
OWN 16
0
44.5%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 21
OWN 16
+10
44.8%
Nick Marshall run for 10 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 8:33
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
45.4%
Daniel Carlson punt for 45 yds, downed at the MisSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
8 plays · 71 yds · 2:1646% → 54%
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
46.4%
Dak Prescott run for 3 yds to the MisSt 32 Dak Prescott fumbled, forced by Kris Frost, recovered by MisSt Dak PrescottSimilar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 7
OWN 32
0
46.9%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gabe Myles, broken up by Robenson TherezieSimilar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+21
47.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Robert Johnson for 21 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
48.7%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 15 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
48.9%
Josh Robinson run for 11 yds to the Aub 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
49.6%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 8 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+11
49.9%
Prescott, Dak pass incomplete to Wilson, De'Runnya (Reed, Trovon), PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Reed, Trovon) 11 yards to the AUBURN2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
54.4%
Dak Prescott 2 Yd Run (Evan Sobiesk Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8MISSED FG
10 plays · 67 yds · 2:3646% → 41%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
53.6%
Nick Marshall run for 4 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+27
54.5%
Nick Marshall run for 27 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+11
54.1%
Roc Thomas run for 11 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
54.3%
Roc Thomas run for 7 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 3
OPP 29
+18
53.9%
Roc Thomas run for 18 yds to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
54.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & 8
OPP 9
-2
56.8%
Nick Marshall sacked by Matthew Wells for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 11Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 10
OPP 11
0
58.0%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:18
4TH & 10
OPP 11
+28
58.7%
Daniel Carlson 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2458% → 61%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
58.3%
Josh Robinson run for 6 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 2:41
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+2
58.8%
Dak Prescott run for 2 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
60.1%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 1:34
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+1
60.5%
Logan Cooke pass intercepted Johnathan Ford return for 1 yd to the MisSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10FG
6 plays · 32 yds · 1:2838% → 41%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+29
61.6%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 29 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
61.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for no gain to the MisSt 7Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
62.2%
Nick Marshall run for 2 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
64.9%
C.J. Uzomah run for 1 yd to the MisSt 4Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
59.1%
Daniel Carlson 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:1262% → 63%
Q2 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
62.0%
Nick Griffin run for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
62.5%
Dak Prescott pass intercepted Jonathan Jones return for 2 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 12FG
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:5840% → 41%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
59.6%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 7 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+4
59.8%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 4 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
60.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Marcus Davis for 9 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+5
60.2%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds to the MisSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
60.7%
Nick Marshall run for 14 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
61.3%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for no gain to the MisSt 7 AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Participation (Jarrod Fuqua) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
61.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 2 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q2 11:21
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
63.4%
Marshall, Nick pass complete to Coates, Sammie for 5 yards to the MISSSTATE0, PENALTY AUBURN illegal touching (Coates, Sammie) 0 yards to the MISSSTATE5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
59.0%
Daniel Carlson 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13INT
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:2862% → 68%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
62.4%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 21 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
64.0%
Dak Prescott pass complete to De'Runnya Wilson for 9 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+1
65.3%
Josh Robinson run for 1 yd to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
65.8%
Dak Prescott run for 7 yds to the Aub 37Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 3
OPP 37
0
66.1%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Josh Robinson, broken up by Kris FrostSimilar
Q2 9:06
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+11
65.8%
Josh Robinson run for 11 yds to the Aub 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
67.6%
Dak Prescott run for 11 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
67.1%
Nick Griffin run for 2 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q2 7:41
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
67.5%
Dak Prescott pass intercepted, touchback. Jonathan Jones return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:5035% → 33%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
65.0%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 12 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
65.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 1 yd to the Aub 33Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 9
OWN 33
0
65.6%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Marcus DavisSimilar
Q2 6:34
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
66.2%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Quan Bray, broken up by Will RedmondSimilar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 9
OWN 33
0
66.8%
Daniel Carlson punt for 45 yds , Jamoral Graham returns for no gain to the MisSt 22 Jamoral Graham fumbled, recovered by Aub Brandon KingSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15TD
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:3836% → 43%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
63.6%
Nick Marshall run for 11 yds to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
63.9%
Corey Grant run for 2 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 8
OPP 9
0
64.2%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to C.J. UzomahSimilar
Q2 5:26
3RD & 8
OPP 9
+9
56.7%
D'haquille Williams 9 Yd pass from Nick Marshall (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:1360% → 73%
Q2 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
59.7%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 4:52
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
59.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+15
59.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 15 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:27
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+26
61.8%
Dak Prescott run for 26 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+20
63.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 20 yds to the Aub 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
63.4%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Malcolm Johnson, broken up by Jonathan JonesSimilar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
63.5%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Jamoral GrahamSimilar
Q2 3:58
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
72.8%
Dak Prescott 15 Yd Run (Evan Sobiesk Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5930% → 29%
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
70.0%
Nick Marshall run for 4 yds to the Aub 40Similar
Q2 3:16
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
70.0%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+3
70.5%
Nick Marshall run for 3 yds to the Aub 43Similar
Q2 2:43
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
71.4%
Daniel Carlson punt for 42 yds, downed at the MisSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18END OF HALF
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:3674% → 78%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+12
74.1%
Dak Prescott run for 12 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-5
74.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 15
OWN 22
+8
74.8%
Josh Robinson run for 8 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 1:25
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+5
76.2%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+7
76.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gus Walley for 7 yds Gus Walley fumbled, forced by Johnathan Ford, recovered by MisSt for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-5
77.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (TEAM) to the MisSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · -9 yds · 2:1927% → 24%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
73.5%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 7 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-2
72.8%
Roc Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 30Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-15
73.7%
Marshall, Nick pass complete to Coates, Sammie for 68 yards to the MISSSTATE2, PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Coates, Sammie) 15 yards to the AUBURN15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:03
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+6
75.7%
Nick Marshall run for 6 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q3 12:45
4TH & 14
OWN 21
-5
76.3%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Brandon King) to the Aub 16Similar
Q3 12:31
4TH & 19
OWN 16
+49
76.5%
Daniel Carlson punt for 49 yds , Jamoral Graham returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 26 yds · 2:1078% → 80%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
78.1%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 11:41
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+5
79.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 5 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+11
79.1%
Dak Prescott run for 11 yds to the Aub 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
80.0%
Dak Prescott run for 5 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 10:47
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+1
80.4%
Dak Prescott run for 1 yd to the Aub 40Similar
Q3 10:14
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
80.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya Wilson, broken up by Jonathon MincySimilar
Q3 10:04
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
79.6%
Logan Cooke punt for 39 yds, downed at the Aub 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21TD
12 plays · 99 yds · 3:4921% → 32%
Q3 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+15
79.1%
Marshall, Nick pass incomplete to Coates, Sammie, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Redmond, Will) 15 yards to the AUBURN16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN AUBURN. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
78.5%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 6 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+8
78.4%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 8 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
79.8%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie Coates, broken up by Nelson AdamsSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+11
80.8%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 11 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+32
79.8%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 32 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
77.9%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+5
78.3%
Roc Thomas run for 5 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
79.8%
Roc Thomas run for 3 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 7
OPP 14
-1
80.1%
Nick Marshall run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 15Similar
Q3 6:09
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+15
68.1%
D'haquille Williams 15 Yd pass from Nick Marshall (Daniel Carlson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:1676% → 79%
Q3 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
76.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Fred Ross for 11 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
77.5%
Josh Robinson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 5:18
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+3
78.6%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 4:43
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
79.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Josh RobinsonSimilar
Q3 4:36
4TH & 3
OWN 43
0
78.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Quan Bray at the Aub 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:3627% → 22%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
73.5%
Nick Marshall run for 10 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
73.3%
Nick Marshall run for 1 yd to the Aub 31Similar
Q3 3:27
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+16
75.8%
Nick Marshall pass complete to D'haquille Williams for 16 yds to the Aub 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
74.0%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
75.0%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:51
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
76.1%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
78.0%
Daniel Carlson punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jamoral Graham at the MisSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5180% → 80%
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
80.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya Wilson, broken up by Jonathon MincySimilar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+12
80.2%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Josh Robinson for 12 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
81.8%
Josh Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 24 Josh Robinson fumbled, recovered by MisSt Josh RobinsonSimilar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+3
81.5%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Robert Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 1:13
3RD & 9
OWN 27
-5
80.7%
Dak Prescott sacked by Angelo Blackson for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 0:44
4TH & 14
OWN 22
0
80.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Quan Bray at the Aub 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4422% → 20%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.9%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Quan BraySimilar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
78.4%
Nick Marshall run for 5 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
78.2%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Quan BraySimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
79.8%
Daniel Carlson punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Jamoral Graham at the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26FUMBLE
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1083% → 87%
Q4 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
82.7%
Josh Robinson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+37
83.9%
Josh Robinson run for 37 yds to the Aub 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
85.8%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Gabe Myles for 10 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
86.5%
Josh Robinson run for 2 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
86.7%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q4 13:21
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
85.6%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to Nick GriffinSimilar
Q4 13:01
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+15
82.5%
Prescott, Dak pass incomplete to Wilson, De'Runnya (Jones, Jonathan), PENALTY AUBURN pass interference (Jones, Jonathan) 15 yards to the AUBURN11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
85.3%
Dak Prescott pass incomplete to De'Runnya Wilson, broken up by Jonathan JonesSimilar
Q4 12:32
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+9
86.1%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 9 yds to the Aub 2Similar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 1
OPP 2
-1
85.5%
Dak Prescott run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 3Similar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+21
86.5%
Evan Sobiesk 21 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 27FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0590% → 97%
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+14
90.3%
Dak Prescott pass complete to Malcolm Johnson for 14 yds to the Aub 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.4%
Josh Robinson 1 Yd Run (Evan Sobiesk Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 28TD
12 plays · 15 yds · 3:094% → 6%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
96.0%
Ricardo Louis run for 10 yds to the Aub 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
95.8%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to D'haquille WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+19
95.9%
Nick Marshall pass complete to C.J. Uzomah for 19 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
95.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+5
95.8%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Quan Bray for 5 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 9:28
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+5
95.7%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 5 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
95.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 5
OPP 28
+4
95.3%
Nick Marshall pass complete to C.J. Uzomah for 4 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
95.4%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie Coates, broken up by Will RedmondSimilar
Q4 8:21
3RD & 1
OPP 24
-1
95.9%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 7:43
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+42
94.4%
Daniel Carlson 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 29FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:2397% → 99%
Q4 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
96.5%
Dak Prescott run for 18 yds to the MisSt 40 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (De'Runnya Wilson) to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 6:53
1ST & 2
OWN 30
+1
96.8%
Josh Robinson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 1
OWN 31
0
97.1%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
97.4%
Dak Prescott run for no gain to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 5:04
4TH & 1
OWN 31
-5
97.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 26Similar
Q4 4:56
4TH & 6
OWN 26
0
98.6%
Logan Cooke punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Quan Bray at the Aub 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 30PUNT
10 plays · 4 yds · 1:542% → 2%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
98.0%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Sammie Coates for 5 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q4 4:26
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+3
98.0%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 3 yds to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 4:06
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+28
98.1%
Cameron Artis-Payne run for 28 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-4
97.7%
Nick Marshall sacked by Preston Smith for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 3:34
2ND & 14
OPP 38
0
98.0%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 14
OPP 38
+16
98.2%
Nick Marshall pass complete to Ricardo Louis for 16 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
97.7%
Nick Marshall pass incomplete to Sammie CoatesSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+11
97.9%
Nick Marshall run for 11 yds to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
97.8%
Nick Marshall pass intercepted Justin Cox return for no gain to the MisSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:09
D'haquille Williams 15 Yd pass from Nick Marshall (Daniel Carlson Kick)
-12
TD · Q2 3:58
Dak Prescott 15 Yd Run (Evan Sobiesk Kick)
+9.3
TD · Q2 5:26
D'haquille Williams 9 Yd pass from Nick Marshall (Daniel Carlson Kick)
-7.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com