Try the model
AUB

Auburn 38 at Mississippi State 14

MSST
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Davis Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 12:29 · Logan Cooke punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 20
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+54.5+27.30−27.3−54.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Home team on offense−38.3Score differential−25.3Garbage-time factor−11.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8Pregame prior−1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:44: Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +4.0 pts (now 61%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:15: Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +9.8 pts (now 75%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:54: MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard line — MSST win probability +2.9 pts (now 17%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:48: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 37 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +3.9 pts (now 6%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:14: Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 8 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK) — MSST win probability +3.1 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 9AUB made the numbers' call on 1 of 5
  1. Q1 12:40MSST 4th & 2 at AUB 11, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 56.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.9%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    55.4%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:01MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:18MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.0%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.6%
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:09AUB 4th & 2 at MSST 40, up 21
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    72.4%−1.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.6%−1.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:28MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 19, down 21
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 26.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 4:50AUB 4th & 7 at AUB 49, up 21
    Close callPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:55MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 23, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−0.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:29MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 38, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:40AUB 4th & 16 at AUB 26, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:56MSST 4th & 1 at AUB 19, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:17MSST 4th & 7 at AUB 13, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:53AUB 4th & 3 at AUB 9, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.3%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:39AUB 4th & 2 at MSST 8, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    54% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.3%−0.1
    90% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:00MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2AUB made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 9:28AUB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:44AUB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:15AUB Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:54AUB Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:48MSST Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:14MSST Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AUBDrive 1INT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5153% → 53%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
47.0%
Sean White pass complete to Kerryon Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 17Similar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+5
47.0%
Kerryon Johnson run for 5 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+16
47.2%
Sean White pass intercepted Kivon Coman return for 16 yds to the Aub 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2MISSED FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5648% → 48%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
47.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Aub 16Similar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 7
OPP 16
0
47.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q1 13:06
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+5
47.6%
AUBURN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Aub 11Similar
Q1 12:46
3RD & 2
OPP 11
0
47.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+28
47.6%
Westin Graves 28 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 3TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:5353% → 55%
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+12
47.5%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 12 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
47.4%
Kerryon Johnson run for 10 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
47.3%
Kerryon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q1 11:29
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+6
47.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
47.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+36
47.3%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 36 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
47.2%
Sean White run for no gain to the MisSt 7Similar
Q1 9:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
47.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 3Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
45.5%
Sean White pass complete to Ryan Davis for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1446% → 46%
Q1 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.0%
Brandon Holloway run for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
45.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Farrod GreenSimilar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
45.4%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Ashton Shumpert for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 8:01
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
45.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 5TD
12 plays · 79 yds · 3:5455% → 61%
Q1 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
45.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 24Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+17
45.1%
Sean White pass complete to Kyle Davis for 17 yds to the Aub 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
44.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 5 yds to the Aub 46Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+9
44.5%
Sean White pass complete to Kamryn Pettway for 9 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
44.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+1
44.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 5:11
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+12
44.1%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 12 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
43.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 9 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+6
43.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
43.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+10
43.4%
Sean White pass complete to Chandler Cox for 10 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
39.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6FUMBLE
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:1040% → 40%
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
40.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
40.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
40.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+7
40.5%
Brandon Holloway run for 7 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+17
40.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 17 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
40.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Aub 37Similar
Q1 1:26
1ST & 15
OPP 37
0
40.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q1 1:20
2ND & 15
OPP 37
-3
39.8%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Marlon Davidson for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 40 Nick Fitzgerald fumbled, recovered by Aub Montravius Adams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 7TD
13 plays · 60 yds · 3:4563% → 75%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
37.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+5
37.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 5 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
37.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
36.7%
Sean White pass incomplete to Darius SlaytonSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
36.5%
Sean White pass complete to Chandler Cox for 9 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+5
36.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
36.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 13:57
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+17
35.5%
Sean White pass complete to Kyle Davis for 17 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
35.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 5 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q2 13:12
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+4
34.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 1
OPP 9
+4
35.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
34.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 3Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
24.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4927% → 26%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 11:37
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
26.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
26.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 11:18
4TH & 7
OWN 28
-4
26.3%
Logan Cooke punt for 59 yds , Marcus Davis returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Aub 9 Marcus Davis fumbled, recovered by Aub Javaris DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:5676% → 77%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
24.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for 9 yds to the Aub 18Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+2
23.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Aub 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
23.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 10Similar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+42
23.0%
Sean White pass complete to Kam Martin for 42 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
21.9%
Kam Martin run for 5 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q2 9:09
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+4
21.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 1
OPP 39
-1
20.9%
Sean White sacked by Nelson Adams for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 8:09
4TH & 2
OPP 40
0
22.9%
Kevin Phillips punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2824% → 23%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
24.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 8 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 7:36
2ND & 2
OWN 18
+1
23.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 1 yd to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 1
OWN 19
0
23.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 6:28
4TH & 1
OWN 19
0
22.5%
Logan Cooke punt for 35 yds, downed at the Aub 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:3280% → 80%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
20.0%
AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Aub 36Similar
Q2 6:04
1ST & 20
OWN 36
+8
20.2%
Kamryn Pettway run for 8 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q2 5:22
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+5
19.1%
Sean White pass complete to Darius Slayton for 5 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
19.0%
Sean White pass incomplete to Tony StevensSimilar
Q2 4:50
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
19.6%
Kevin Phillips punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 1:4821% → 20%
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
21.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q2 4:27
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+7
20.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 7 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+7
20.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 7 yds to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
20.5%
Malik Dear run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 23Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
20.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
19.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Aeris WilliamsSimilar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
19.6%
Logan Cooke punt for 22 yds, downed at the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13TD
5 plays · 45 yds · 0:5483% → 83%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+16
17.0%
Sean White pass complete to Tony Stevens for 16 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
15.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 31 Kamryn Pettway fumbled, recovered by Aub Sean WhiteSimilar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+29
14.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 29 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.9%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
16.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -12 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
8.6%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Carl Lawson for a loss of 12 yards Nick Fitzgerald fumbled, forced by Carl Lawson, recovered by Aub Montravius Adams , return for 13 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15END OF HALF
8 plays · 17 yds · 1:158% → 7%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
7.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+6
7.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Deddrick Thomas for 6 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+11
7.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
7.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 8 yds to the Aub 48Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & 2
OPP 48
-10
7.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 0:08
2ND & 12
OWN 42
0
6.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Deddrick ThomasSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 12
OWN 42
0
6.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:267% → 4%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
6.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
6.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
4.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 13 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
4.6%
Ashton Shumpert run for 5 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q3 13:17
2ND & 5
OWN 43
-6
4.3%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Carl Lawson for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+1
4.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 1 yd to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 10
OWN 38
0
3.8%
Logan Cooke punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Marcus Davis at the Aub 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:2896% → 97%
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
3.8%
Sean White run for 5 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+7
3.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 7 yds to the Aub 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
3.5%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 10:55
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
3.4%
Kamryn Pettway run for no gain to the Aub 35Similar
Q3 9:58
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-9
3.2%
Sean White sacked by Marquiss Spencer for a loss of 9 yards to the Aub 26Similar
Q3 9:40
4TH & 16
OWN 26
-4
3.4%
Kevin Phillips punt for 39 yds , Fred Ross returns for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 31 Fred Ross fumbled, recovered by MisSt Dezmond HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:383% → 6%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
2.8%
Keith Mixon run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 13
OWN 28
+6
2.6%
Brandon Holloway run for 6 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+7
2.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 7 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
2.3%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 7:07
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+1
2.1%
Ashton Shumpert run for 1 yd to the MisSt 45Similar
Q3 6:12
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+18
1.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 18 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
2.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Keith MixonSimilar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+37
6.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 37 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19FUMBLE
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:4897% → 97%
Q3 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
3.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 8 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+3
2.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
2.8%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 3:39
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+2
3.0%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Aub 43 Kamryn Pettway fumbled, recovered by MisSt Traver JungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20INT
16 plays · 30 yds · 5:223% → 1%
Q3 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-15
3.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 42Similar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
2.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Farrod Green for 5 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 32
0
2.5%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:33
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+8
2.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Malik Dear for 8 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
2.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 11 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
2.3%
Keith Mixon run for 1 yd to the Aub 48Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+20
2.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 20 yds to the Aub 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+3
2.3%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 0:32
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
2.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Brandon Holloway for no gain to the Aub 25Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+6
2.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 6 yds to the Aub 19Similar
Q4 14:56
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+3
1.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the Aub 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-1
1.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 17Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 11
OPP 17
+4
1.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 4 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q4 13:24
3RD & 7
OPP 13
0
1.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:17
4TH & 7
OPP 13
0
0.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass intercepted Stephen Roberts return for no gain to the Aub 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21FUMBLE
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0299% → 99%
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
0.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 4 yds to the Aub 6Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 6
OWN 6
+3
0.7%
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds to the Aub 9Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 3
OWN 9
0
0.6%
Sean White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:53
4TH & 3
OWN 9
+1
0.6%
Kevin Phillips punt for 37 yds , Fred Ross returns for 1 yd to the Aub 45 Fred Ross fumbled, recovered by MisSt Dezmond HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 1:111% → 4%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
0.6%
Aeris Williams run for 6 yds to the Aub 39Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+26
0.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jamal Couch for 26 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
0.4%
Aeris Williams run for 5 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q4 10:14
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
3.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 8 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23FG
17 plays · 67 yds · 8:2899% → 100%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.4%
Kam Martin run for 3 yds to the Aub 28Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
1.3%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 8:43
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+19
1.3%
Sean White pass complete to Darius Slayton for 19 yds to the Aub 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
1.1%
Kamryn Pettway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-11
1.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the Aub 40 TEAM fumbled, recovered by AubSimilar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 19
OPP 40
+29
1.0%
Stanton Truitt run for 14 yds to the MISSSTATE 46 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-5
0.8%
AUBURN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 5:30
1ST & 15
OPP 36
+8
0.7%
Stanton Truitt run for 8 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 4:48
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+6
0.6%
Stanton Truitt run for 6 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+6
0.6%
Kamryn Pettway run for 6 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
0.6%
John Franklin III run for 5 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 5
OPP 11
-1
0.5%
John Franklin III run for 9 yds to the MisSt 2 AUBURN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the MisSt 12Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+4
0.5%
Stanton Truitt run for 4 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
Q4 2:09
3RD & 2
OPP 8
0
0.4%
John Franklin III run for no gain to the MisSt 8Similar
Q4 1:39
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+25
0.3%
Daniel Carlson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24END OF GAME
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:161% → 1%
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.7%
Dontavian Lee run for 9 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-8
0.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 26 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MisStSimilar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
0.6%
Dontavian Lee run for 5 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
0.6%
Nick Tiano pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 5 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:15
Kamryn Pettway run for 3 yds for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
-9.8
TD · Q1 3:44
Kamryn Pettway run for 1 yd for a TD, (Daniel Carlson KICK)
-4
TD · Q3 5:48
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for 37 yds for a TD, (Westin Graves KICK)
+3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com