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MSST

Mississippi State 20 at LSU 23

LSU
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Tiger Stadium (LA)
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Win probability · LSU
modelLSU aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playLSU scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:24 · Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 5 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Pregame prior+16.4Home team on offense+20.9Score differential+16.0Garbage-time factor+4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.7Time remaining+1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:25: Leonard Fournette 25 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye PAT blocked) — LSU win probability +6.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 3:31: Westin Graves 41 Yd Field Goal — MSST win probability +3.7 pts (now 10%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 0:07: Colby Delahoussaye 27 Yd Field Goal — LSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: LSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:10: Damian Williams 1 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick) — MSST win probability +6.2 pts (now 9%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:30: Fred Ross 7 Yd pass from Damian Williams (Westin Graves Kick) — MSST win probability +28.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
LSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7MSST made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 12:40LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:38MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:21MSST 4th & 6 at LSU 38, down 7
    Close callPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    19.4%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:29LSU 4th & 1 at LSU 33, up 7
    Close callPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:26MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%−0.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:18MSST 4th & 12 at MSST 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:31MSST 4th & 13 at LSU 23, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.6%
    70% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:07LSU 4th & 5 at MSST 10, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−1.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.6%
    88% to make
    Punt
    86.3%−3.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:28MSST 4th & 5 at LSU 44, down 20
    Close callPunted · 4.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    3.8%−0.9
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:33LSU 4th & 7 at LSU 16, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:31MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 49, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.7%−1.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:24MSST 4th & 3 at LSU 29, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%−0.5
    58% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−3.4
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:41MSST 4th & 6 at LSU 20, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−3.0
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:25MSST 4th & 17 at LSU 36, down 17
    Close callPunted · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    5.9%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:21LSU 4th & 3 at LSU 14, up 17
    Close callPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:51MSST 4th & 9 at LSU 49, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:50LSU 4th & 1 at MSST 34, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.9
    47% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:39MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.4%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:15LSU 4th & 12 at LSU 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−8.5
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:35MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.4%−2.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
LSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSST made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:28LSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:35LSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:25LSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 4:10MSST Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.2%−0.6
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:30MSST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%−0.7
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
LSUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5387% → 86%
Q1 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-4
86.7%
D.J. Chark run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 14
OWN 20
-1
86.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Leonard Fournette for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 19Similar
Q1 13:20
3RD & 15
OWN 19
+12
86.3%
Danny Etling run for 12 yds to the LSU 31Similar
Q1 12:40
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
86.1%
Josh Growden punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5714% → 14%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
86.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 3 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+2
86.0%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 11:42
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
85.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin Johnson, broken up by Kendell BeckwithSimilar
Q1 11:38
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
86.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 1:5386% → 86%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
85.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to J.D. Moore for 1 yd to the LSU 37Similar
Q1 10:55
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
85.7%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Leonard FournetteSimilar
Q1 10:49
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+15
85.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 15 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
85.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 11 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
85.7%
Leonard Fournette pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
85.6%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Colin JeterSimilar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+37
86.4%
D.J. Chark 37 Yd pass from Danny Etling (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 37 yds · 2:5914% → 14%
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
86.2%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 8:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+19
86.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 19 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
85.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for 12 yds to the LSU 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
85.7%
Brandon Holloway run for 6 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
85.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Keith Mixon for no gain to the LSU 36Similar
Q1 6:58
3RD & 4
OPP 36
-2
85.5%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 2 yards to the LSU 38Similar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
85.7%
Logan Cooke punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tre'Davious White at the LSU 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:4586% → 86%
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+16
85.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 16 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
85.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 25Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
85.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 9
OWN 25
-5
85.6%
LSU Penalty, False Start (DeSean Smith) to the LSU 20Similar
Q1 4:48
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+13
85.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 13 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q1 4:29
4TH & 1
OWN 33
0
85.5%
Josh Growden punt for 65 yds, downed at the MisSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:5914% → 14%
Q1 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
85.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q1 4:18
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
85.7%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q1 3:56
3RD & 10
OWN 2
-1
85.9%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Davon Godchaux and Lewis Neal for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 1Similar
Q1 3:26
4TH & 11
OWN 1
+3
86.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 48 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 3 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 46 yds · 2:4286% → 88%
Q1 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
86.1%
Leonard Fournette run for 7 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q1 3:17
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+15
86.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Leo Lewis) to the MisSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
86.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+3
85.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q1 1:27
3RD & 4
OPP 18
0
85.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to D.J. CharkSimilar
Q1 1:20
4TH & 4
OPP 18
+5
85.2%
Delahoussaye, Colby field goal attempt from 35 GOOD, clock 01:20, PENALTY MISSSTATE roughing the kicker (Calvin, Johnathan) 5 yards to the MISSSTATE13, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN LSU.Similar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
85.7%
Malachi Dupre pass incomplete to Danny EtlingSimilar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+8
85.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 8 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+5
88.1%
Leonard Fournette 5 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:4213% → 13%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
87.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Jordan Thomas for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 15
OWN 30
+3
87.3%
Brandon Holloway run for 3 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
87.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Gabe MylesSimilar
Q2 14:18
4TH & 12
OWN 33
+6
87.4%
Logan Cooke punt for 55 yds , Tre'Davious White returns for 6 yds to the LSU 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 9TD
13 plays · 82 yds · 5:5388% → 96%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
87.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Foster Moreau) to the LSU 13Similar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+7
87.9%
Derrius Guice run for 7 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q2 13:29
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+4
88.1%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the LSU 24Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 4
OWN 24
+5
87.9%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 5 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
88.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 4
OWN 35
0
88.4%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 11:08
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+12
88.2%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 12 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
89.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 4 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+8
89.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 8 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
89.1%
Derrius Guice run for 1 yd to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+15
89.0%
Danny Etling pass complete to Derrius Guice for 15 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
95.7%
Leonard Fournette 25 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 4:396% → 10%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
93.8%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+6
94.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 6 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 2
OWN 27
+3
93.7%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 3 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+30
93.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 30 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
93.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
93.2%
LSU Penalty, Offside Defense (Davon Godchaux) to the LSU 35Similar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+15
92.8%
Fitzgerald, Nick pass incomplete to Ross, Fred, PENALTY LSU pass interference (Thomas, Dwayne) 15 yards to the LSU20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-7
92.9%
Fred Ross sacked by Frank Herron for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 27 Fred Ross fumbled, recovered by MisSt Fred Ross , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 17
OPP 27
-5
93.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Justin Senior) to the LSU 32Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 22
OPP 32
+9
93.6%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 9 yds to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 4:06
3RD & 13
OPP 23
0
93.9%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Davon Godchaux and Lewis Neal for 0 yards to the LSU 23Similar
Q2 3:31
4TH & 13
OPP 23
+41
90.2%
Westin Graves 41 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 11FG
14 plays · 68 yds · 3:0793% → 96%
Q2 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
93.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the LSU 25Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+4
93.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+18
92.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to Foster Moreau for 18 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
93.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 10 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
93.4%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+11
93.4%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 11 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
93.5%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+16
93.6%
Danny Etling pass complete to Leonard Fournette for 16 yds to the MisSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
93.3%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+3
91.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 3 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 5
OPP 10
0
91.1%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin Dural, broken up by Jamoral GrahamSimilar
Q2 0:07
4TH & 5
OPP 10
+27
96.4%
Colby Delahoussaye 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
95.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 37 yds · 1:114% → 4%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+32
95.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Donald Gray for 32 yds to the LSU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
95.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Justin JohnsonSimilar
Q3 14:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
95.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Fred Ross for 5 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 5
OPP 44
0
95.9%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q3 13:28
4TH & 5
OPP 44
0
96.1%
Logan Cooke punt for 31 yds, downed at the LSU 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4297% → 97%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
96.7%
Danny Etling pass complete to J.D. Moore for 8 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 2
OWN 21
-5
96.8%
LSU Penalty, False Start (Maea Teuhema) to the LSU 16Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
96.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Colin JeterSimilar
Q3 12:40
3RD & 7
OWN 16
0
96.8%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q3 12:33
4TH & 7
OWN 16
0
96.6%
Josh Growden punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the MisSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15FG
13 plays · 40 yds · 5:445% → 7%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
95.5%
Keith Mixon run for 4 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q3 11:44
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+3
95.6%
Ashton Shumpert run for 3 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q3 11:06
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+2
95.4%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 10:31
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+15
95.8%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 15 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
96.0%
Aeris Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 34Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+5
95.9%
Nick Fitzgerald run for 5 yds to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 3
OPP 29
0
96.2%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald Gray, broken up by Donte JacksonSimilar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+5
96.6%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 5 yds to the LSU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
96.2%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Tre'Davious White and Davon Godchaux for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 29Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 15
OPP 29
+9
96.4%
Ashton Shumpert run for 9 yds to the LSU 20Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 6
OPP 20
0
96.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred RossSimilar
Q3 6:41
4TH & 6
OPP 20
+37
93.5%
Westin Graves 37 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 16FUMBLE
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:0995% → 96%
Q3 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
95.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to Leonard Fournette for a loss of 1 yard to the LSU 28Similar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+12
95.2%
Leonard Fournette run for 12 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
95.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offside Defense (Nick James) to the LSU 45Similar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 5
OWN 45
+6
95.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 6 yds to the MisSt 49 Leonard Fournette fumbled, forced by Dezmond Harris, recovered by MisSt Gerri GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 2:436% → 5%
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
93.8%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the LSU 47Similar
Q3 4:42
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+7
94.3%
Ashton Shumpert run for 7 yds to the LSU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
94.3%
Ashton Shumpert run for 4 yds to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+7
94.3%
Ashton Shumpert run for 7 yds to the LSU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
93.8%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Fred Ross, broken up by Rickey JeffersonSimilar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
94.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Jordan Thomas, broken up by Kevin Toliver IISimilar
Q3 2:48
3RD & 10
OPP 29
-7
94.5%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Lewis Neal for a loss of 7 yards to the LSU 36Similar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 17
OPP 36
0
95.1%
Logan Cooke punt for 29 yds, downed at the LSU 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4896% → 96%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
95.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 4 yds to the LSU 11Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+1
95.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 1 yd to the LSU 12Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & 5
OWN 12
-6
96.0%
Etling, Danny pass complete to Dural, Travin for 19 yards to the LSU31 (Durr, Lashard), PENALTY LSU holding (Pocic, Ethan) 6 yards to the LSU6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:38
3RD & 11
OWN 6
+8
96.0%
Danny Etling run for 8 yds to the LSU 14Similar
Q3 0:21
4TH & 3
OWN 14
0
95.7%
Josh Growden punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Fred Ross at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:095% → 4%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
50
+6
95.3%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Aeris Williams for 6 yds to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
95.1%
Nick Fitzgerald run for no gain to the LSU 44Similar
Q4 14:02
3RD & 4
OPP 44
-5
95.8%
Nick Fitzgerald sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 5 yards to the LSU 49 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 13:51
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
96.0%
Logan Cooke punt for 48 yds, downed at the LSU 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 20FUMBLE
14 plays · 65 yds · 6:4497% → 98%
Q4 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
96.8%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 3Similar
Q4 13:07
2ND & 8
OWN 3
0
96.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Travin DuralSimilar
Q4 12:55
3RD & 8
OWN 3
+8
96.9%
Leonard Fournette run for 8 yds to the LSU 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
97.0%
Leonard Fournette run for 14 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.1%
Danny Etling pass complete to Travin Dural for 8 yds to the LSU 33Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+3
97.3%
Derrius Guice run for 3 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
97.3%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Leonard FournetteSimilar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+11
97.3%
Danny Etling pass complete to D.J. Chark for 11 yds to the LSU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+10
97.4%
Leonard Fournette run for 10 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
97.5%
Danny Etling run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 8:39
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-15
97.6%
LSU Penalty, Illegal Block (Foster Moreau) to the LSU 45Similar
Q4 8:18
2ND & 22
OWN 45
+17
97.5%
Danny Etling pass complete to Malachi Dupre for 17 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q4 7:37
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+4
97.6%
Derrius Guice run for 4 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 6:50
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
97.7%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the MisSt 34 Leonard Fournette fumbled, forced by Dezmond Harris, recovered by LSU Foster MoreauSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 2:343% → 9%
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
97.0%
Nick Fitzgerald pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
97.1%
Nick Fitzgerald pass complete to Gabe Myles for 7 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 3
OWN 41
-1
97.2%
Nick Fitzgerald run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 5:39
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+24
97.5%
Damian Williams pass complete to Donald Gray for 24 yds to the LSU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+11
97.8%
Damian Williams pass complete to Brandon Holloway for 11 yds to the LSU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
97.4%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Fred Ross, broken up by Greg GilmoreSimilar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-5
97.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the LSU 30Similar
Q4 4:55
2ND & 15
OPP 30
+27
97.6%
Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for 27 yds to the LSU 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
97.5%
Damian Williams run for 2 yds to the LSU 1Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
91.3%
Damian Williams 1 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:279% → 37%
Q4 3:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+25
91.4%
Damian Williams pass complete to Fred Ross for 25 yds to the LSU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
63.3%
Fred Ross 7 Yd pass from Damian Williams (Westin Graves Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:5884% → 85%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
83.7%
Leonard Fournette run for 2 yds to the LSU 21Similar
Q4 2:31
2ND & 8
OWN 21
-4
86.2%
D.J. Chark run for a loss of 4 yards to the LSU 17Similar
Q4 2:26
3RD & 12
OWN 17
0
85.9%
Danny Etling pass incomplete to Malachi DupreSimilar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 12
OWN 17
+1
85.4%
Josh Growden punt for 61 yds , Fred Ross returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24FUMBLE
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:3120% → 18%
Q4 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
80.4%
Brandon Holloway run for 2 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
80.3%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Donald Gray, broken up by Donte JacksonSimilar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
81.4%
Damian Williams pass incomplete to Donald GraySimilar
Q4 1:35
4TH & 8
OWN 25
-12
82.5%
Damian Williams sacked by Arden Key for a loss of 12 yards to the MisSt 17 Damian Williams fumbled, forced by Arden Key, recovered by LSU Davon Godchaux , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
LSUDrive 25END OF GAME
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:4093% → 95%
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
93.0%
Leonard Fournette run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 12
OPP 19
0
95.0%
Leonard Fournette run for no gain to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 12
OPP 19
-4
94.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:30
Fred Ross 7 Yd pass from Damian Williams (Westin Graves Kick)
-28.2
TD · Q2 8:25
Leonard Fournette 25 Yd Run (Colby Delahoussaye PAT blocked)
+6.7
TD · Q4 4:10
Damian Williams 1 Yd Run (Westin Graves Kick)
-6.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com