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MSST

Mississippi State 17 at Kentucky 27

UK
2022 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2022 · Kroger Field
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Win probability · UK
modelUK aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playUK scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · TEAM run for no gain to the MisSt 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:28: Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 1 yd for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — MSST win probability +12.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:10: Will Levis pass complete to Rahsaan Lewis for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +16.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 11:43: Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 16 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +13.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:33: Will Levis pass intercepted for a TD Emmanuel Forbes return for 59 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — MSST win probability +14.1 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:30: Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK) — UK win probability +19.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UK has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UK made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 13:16MSST 4th & 20 at MSST 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−0.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:54UK 4th & 1 at UK 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    43.8%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:10MSST 4th & 24 at MSST 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−0.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:30UK 4th & 1 at MSST 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    46.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    45.5%−1.0
    30% to make
    Punt
    45.8%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:57UK 4th & 27 at UK 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:26MSST 4th & 9 at UK 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.2%
    56% to make
    Punt
    52.4%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:52UK 4th & 8 at MSST 33, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−1.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:47MSST 4th & 8 at UK 35, up 3
    Close callWent for it · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.1%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    58.5%
    45% to make
    Punt
    56.8%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:34UK 4th & 2 at MSST 19, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%−1.4
    77% to make
    Punt
    43.2%−10.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:28MSST 4th & 1 at UK 1, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−4.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−14.5
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:10UK 4th & 3 at MSST 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    41.0%−2.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    28.9%−14.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:35MSST 4th & 7 at UK 45, down 3
    Close callPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    37.2%−2.6
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:14MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:33UK 4th & 2 at MSST 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%−1.7
    40% to make
    Punt
    85.8%−1.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:26UK 4th & 1 at MSST 7, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−0.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UK made the numbers' call on 2 of 3MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q3 8:28MSST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 4:10UK Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 11:43UK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:33MSST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.5%−0.7
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 5:30UK Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 16 yds · 1:4456% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.6%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Deone Walker) to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+5
43.6%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Jordan Wright) to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
43.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 16 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
43.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Dillon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
43.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 15
OWN 46
-5
43.9%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Kameron Jones) to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 20
OWN 41
0
44.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 20
OWN 41
+3
44.2%
George Georgopoulos punt for 41 yds , Barion Brown returns for 3 yds to the Kent 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 2FUMBLE
13 plays · 43 yds · 5:1344% → 45%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
44.2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the Kent 23Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+6
44.3%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q1 11:57
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+4
44.4%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
44.7%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Jeremy Flax) to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 11:06
1ST & 15
OWN 28
0
44.7%
JuTahn McClain run for no gain to the Kent 28Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 15
OWN 28
0
44.7%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Barion BrownSimilar
Q1 10:39
3RD & 15
OWN 28
+14
44.6%
Will Levis pass complete to JuTahn McClain for 14 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q1 9:54
4TH & 1
OWN 42
+8
45.1%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
50
+9
45.9%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 9 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-6
45.9%
Will Levis pass complete to Chauncey Magwood for 4 yds to the MisSt 37 KENTUCKY Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dane Key) to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-10
46.1%
Smoke, Kavosiey rush for 6 yards to the MISSSTATE41, PENALTY KENTUCKY holding 10 yards to the KENTUCKY43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 17
OWN 43
0
45.7%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Jordan DingleSimilar
Q1 7:45
3RD & 17
OWN 43
+21
45.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Rahsaan Lewis for 21 yds Rahsaan Lewis fumbled, forced by Collin Duncan, recovered by MisSt Jalen GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 1:1655% → 54%
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
45.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Steven Losoya III) to the MisSt 26Similar
Q1 7:17
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+6
45.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 14
OWN 32
0
45.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin RobinsonSimilar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 14
OWN 32
-10
46.1%
Will Rogers sacked by Carrington Valentine for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 24
OWN 22
+5
46.5%
Archer Trafford punt for 56 yds , Barion Brown returns for 5 yds to the Kent 27 KENTUCKY Penalty, Illegal Block (Keaton Upshaw) to the Kent 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 4PUNT
13 plays · 28 yds · 6:0446% → 47%
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
45.9%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for no gain to the Kent 17Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 17
+1
46.0%
JuTahn McClain run for 1 yd to the Kent 18Similar
Q1 4:56
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+31
45.6%
Will Levis pass complete to Dane Key for 31 yds to the Kent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
47.4%
JuTahn McClain run for 4 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
48.0%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 3:14
3RD & 1
OPP 42
0
47.8%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+4
47.5%
Will Levis run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-10
48.7%
Levis, Will pass sacked for loss of 2 yards to the MISSSTATE40 (Russell, De'Monte), PENALTY KENTUCKY holding 10 yards to the MISSSTATE48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:21
1ST & 20
OPP 48
0
48.2%
JuTahn McClain run for no gain to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 0:59
2ND & 20
OPP 48
+3
48.2%
Will Levis pass complete to JuTahn McClain for 3 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 0:32
3RD & 17
OPP 45
-5
47.7%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 22
50
-5
47.6%
Will Levis sacked by Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 5 yards to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 14:57
4TH & 27
OWN 45
0
46.8%
Colin Goodfellow punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5FG
14 plays · 57 yds · 6:2553% → 55%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
46.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 8 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 14:16
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+10
46.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 10 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
46.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q2 13:38
2ND & 3
OWN 38
+5
45.7%
KENTUCKY Penalty, Defensive Offside (Josaih Hayes) to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+2
45.8%
Will Rogers run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 12:35
2ND & 8
OWN 45
+5
45.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:11
3RD & 3
50
+8
45.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 8 yds to the Kent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
45.4%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
45.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the Kent 36Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+5
45.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 5 yds to the Kent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
44.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 2 yds to the Kent 29Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 8
OPP 29
-1
44.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Kent 30Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 9
OPP 30
0
45.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:26
4TH & 9
OPP 30
+48
45.1%
Massimo Biscardi 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 6MISSED FG
13 plays · 42 yds · 6:1445% → 45%
Q2 8:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
44.7%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 9 yds to the Kent 34Similar
Q2 7:42
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
46.3%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the Kent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
46.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
47.0%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 4 yds to the Kent 49Similar
Q2 5:55
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+2
46.6%
Will Levis run for 2 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
47.5%
JuTahn McClain run for 1 yd to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+13
47.9%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 13 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
49.2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 36Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 11
OPP 36
+2
48.1%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 2 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 3:00
3RD & 9
OPP 34
+1
47.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 1 yd to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 8
OPP 33
+51
44.5%
Matt Ruffolo 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 32 yds · 1:0058% → 58%
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
41.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 15 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
40.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
39.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+9
40.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 9 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
39.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
39.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 10
OPP 37
-5
40.5%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Jones) to the Kent 42Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 15
OPP 42
+7
42.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the Kent 35Similar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
42.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rufus HarveySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 8FG
10 plays · 54 yds · 0:4144% → 54%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
44.2%
Levis, Will pass incomplete to Key, Dane, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Forbes, Emmanuel) 10 yards to the KENTUCKY45, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
46.5%
Will Levis pass complete to Rahsaan Lewis for 9 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 1
OPP 46
-5
47.7%
KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (Jager Burton) to the Kent 49Similar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 6
50
+24
47.1%
Will Levis pass complete to Rahsaan Lewis for 9 yds to the KENTUCKY 41 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Decamerion Richardson) to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
48.8%
Levis, Will pass incomplete to Key, Dane, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Richardson, Decamerion) 10 yards to the MISSSTATE16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
48.8%
Will Levis run for 6 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
46.6%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Dane KeySimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+28
53.6%
Matt Ruffolo 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9END OF HALF
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
47.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 10FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:1852% → 58%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
51.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 11 yds to the Kent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
52.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 4 yds to the Kent 40Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
54.4%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Barion BrownSimilar
Q3 13:48
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+33
52.2%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 33 yds to the KENTUCKY 27 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Jackie Matthews) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-1
56.3%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 28Similar
Q3 12:52
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+2
56.2%
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Jordan Dingle for 2 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 9
OPP 26
+7
55.0%
Kaiya Sheron pass complete to Barion Brown for 7 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q3 11:34
4TH & 2
OPP 19
+37
58.4%
Matt Ruffolo 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4744% → 60%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
56.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 12 yds to the MisSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
55.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 11 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+24
53.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 24 yds to the Kent 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+19
51.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 19 yds to the Kent 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
51.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q3 9:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
51.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 8 yds to the Kent 1Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the Kent 1Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
40.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 1 yd for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 12TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:5943% → 61%
Q3 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
43.0%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 10 yds to the Kent 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
43.5%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 8 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q3 7:42
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+3
45.1%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 3 yds to the Kent 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+47
44.8%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 47 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
48.2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q3 5:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
48.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 2Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
45.1%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 3Similar
Q3 4:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
61.4%
Will Levis pass complete to Rahsaan Lewis for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:2040% → 39%
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
60.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+30
60.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 30 yds to the Kent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
55.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 7
OPP 45
-5
56.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Justin Robinson) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:11
2ND & 12
50
+4
58.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 4 yds to the Kent 46Similar
Q3 1:42
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-5
58.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 13
OWN 49
+6
61.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 6 yds to the Kent 45Similar
Q3 0:35
4TH & 7
OPP 45
0
61.3%
Archer Trafford punt for 45 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 14TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:1762% → 88%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+15
62.0%
JuTahn McClain run for 15 yds to the Kent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
62.6%
JuTahn McClain run for 4 yds to the Kent 39Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
69.2%
JuTahn McClain run for 3 yds to the Kent 42Similar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+9
68.4%
Levis, Will pass incomplete to Brown, Barion, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Matthews, Jackie) 9 yards to the MISSSTATE49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN KENTUCKY.Similar
Q4 13:19
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
70.6%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 12:49
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
71.0%
Will Levis pass complete to Chris Rodriguez Jr. for no gain to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+31
69.8%
Will Levis pass complete to JuTahn McClain for 31 yds to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
87.9%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 16 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:2216% → 11%
Q4 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
83.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 2 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
84.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 4 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-5
85.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Jones) to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 10:21
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
87.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q4 10:14
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
88.9%
George Georgopoulos punt for 4 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 16INT TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3488% → 74%
Q4 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
88.2%
JuTahn McClain run for 2 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
Q4 9:28
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
88.4%
Will Levis pass incomplete to Rahsaan LewisSimilar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+6
87.8%
Will Levis pass complete to Barion Brown for 6 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 2
OPP 37
-59
73.8%
Will Levis pass intercepted for a TD Emmanuel Forbes return for 59 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 17TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:5572% → 93%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
72.4%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 12 yds to the Kent 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
74.0%
Kavosiey Smoke run for 6 yds to the Kent 43Similar
Q4 7:02
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
75.7%
Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the Kent 43Similar
Q4 6:55
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+50
74.3%
Will Levis pass complete to Dekel Crowdus for 50 yds to the MisSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
93.3%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18INT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:037% → 7%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
92.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
91.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 2 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
92.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Rara Thomas) to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-8
93.4%
Will Rogers pass intercepted DeAndre Square return for 8 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UKDrive 19END OF GAME
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:5194% → 97%
Q4 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
94.1%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 1 yd to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+15
94.0%
Kavosiey Smoke run for no gain to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Collin Duncan) to the MisSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
95.8%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 4 yds to the MisSt 12Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+5
95.9%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 5 yds to the MisSt 7Similar
Q4 1:31
3RD & 1
OPP 7
0
96.5%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for no gain to the MisSt 7Similar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+6
96.2%
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 6 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
97.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 2Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
96.9%
TEAM run for no gain to the MisSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:30
Chris Rodriguez Jr. run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+19
TD · Q3 4:10
Will Levis pass complete to Rahsaan Lewis for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Ruffolo KICK)
+16.3
TD · Q4 8:33
Will Levis pass intercepted for a TD Emmanuel Forbes return for 59 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
-14.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com