Try the model
TA&M

Texas A&M 24 at Mississippi State 42

MSST
2022 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2022 · Davis Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadTA&M aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreTA&M score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:43 · Ben Raybon 39 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Home team on offense+29.4Score differential+15.3Garbage-time factor+14.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.6Pregame prior+0.4Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:10: Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 5 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK) — MSST win probability +7.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:58: Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 4 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK) — MSST win probability +8.8 pts (now 80%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:02: Decamerion Richardson 50 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Ben Raybon Kick) — MSST win probability +12.7 pts (now 92%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:35: Max Johnson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 18 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK) — TA&M win probability +12.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: TA&M has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 12:42: Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK) — MSST win probability +8.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6TA&M made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 13:25MSST 4th & 10 at TA&M 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:19TA&M 4th & 4 at MSST 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:07MSST 4th & 4 at TA&M 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.8%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:55MSST 4th & 8 at TA&M 43, tied
    Close callPunted · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.6%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    61.2%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    61.5%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:24TA&M 4th & 9 at TA&M 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:03MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:17TA&M 4th & 3 at TA&M 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:16TA&M 4th & 6 at MSST 37, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    17.3%−0.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    17.1%−1.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:49TA&M 4th & 6 at MSST 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.4%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.6%
    91% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−6.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:02TA&M 4th & 14 at MSST 26, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−1.5
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−4.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:42MSST 4th & 1 at TA&M 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    85.0%−2.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    79.7%−7.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:14TA&M 4th & 4 at MSST 4, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−3.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 3:43MSST 4th & 3 at TA&M 21, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.3%−0.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TA&M made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 6:10MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:58MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 5:02MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 2:35TA&M Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:42MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:14TA&M Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:03MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:29MSST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 1:34TA&M Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:3056% → 56%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
56.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+14
56.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 14 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
56.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 11 yds to the TexAM 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
56.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:39
2ND & 10
OPP 48
0
56.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Caleb DuckingSimilar
Q1 13:34
3RD & 10
OPP 48
0
56.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
56.3%
Archer Trafford punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Moose Muhammad III at the TexAM 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 38 yds · 4:0144% → 44%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
56.3%
Max Johnson pass complete to Devon Achane for 9 yds to the TexAM 23Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+7
56.3%
Devon Achane run for 7 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
56.3%
Max Johnson run for 4 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q1 11:23
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+12
56.3%
Devon Achane run for 12 yds to the TexAM 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
56.0%
Max Johnson run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:03
2ND & 6
50
0
56.0%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Donovan GreenSimilar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 6
50
+2
56.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Devon Achane for 2 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
56.4%
Nik Constantinou punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
19 plays · 49 yds · 8:2157% → 57%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
56.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q1 8:42
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+6
56.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 6 yds to the MisSt 17Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+5
56.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 5 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
56.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 3 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
56.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 7:15
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-8
56.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 29 MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (LaQuinston Sharp) to the MisSt 19Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 13
OWN 19
+16
56.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 16 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
56.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 7 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+3
57.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 3 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
57.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 49
-5
57.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 44Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 11
OWN 44
+2
57.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q1 3:50
3RD & 9
OWN 46
+5
56.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the TexAM 49Similar
Q1 3:07
4TH & 4
OPP 49
+4
57.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
58.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 1 yd to the TexAM 44Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 9
OPP 44
-5
58.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Cole Smith) to the TexAM 49Similar
Q1 1:57
2ND & 14
OPP 49
0
57.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q1 1:53
3RD & 14
OPP 49
+6
57.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q1 0:55
4TH & 8
OPP 43
+2
57.0%
George Georgopoulos punt for 35 yds , Moose Muhammad III returns for 2 yds to the TexAM 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 36 yds · 2:2544% → 43%
Q1 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+35
56.3%
Devon Achane run for 20 yds to the TexAM 30 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Decamerion Richardson) to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
55.0%
Le'Veon Moss run for 2 yds to the TexAM 47Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-1
54.8%
Evan Stewart run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
55.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Devon Achane for no gain to the TexAM 46Similar
Q2 13:24
4TH & 9
OWN 46
+5
56.7%
Nik Constantinou punt for 40 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 5 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2157% → 56%
Q2 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
57.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Kameron Jones) to the MisSt 14Similar
Q2 13:15
1ST & 15
OWN 14
-3
57.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 11Similar
Q2 12:47
2ND & 18
OWN 11
+8
57.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 8 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q2 12:16
3RD & 10
OWN 19
0
56.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 10
OWN 19
+20
55.9%
George Georgopoulos punt for 38 yds , Moose Muhammad III returns for 20 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 31 yds · 1:1146% → 47%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
54.3%
Devon Achane run for 11 yds to the MisSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
53.5%
Devon Achane run for 8 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 2
OPP 18
+12
53.4%
Devon Achane run for 12 yds to the MisSt 6 Devon Achane fumbled, forced by Collin Duncan, recovered by MisSt Decamerion RichardsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
11 plays · 94 yds · 4:2557% → 68%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+4
57.2%
Simeon Price run for 4 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 10:07
2ND & 6
OWN 10
+25
57.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 25 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
57.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q2 9:23
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+19
59.5%
Simeon Price run for 19 yds to the TexAM 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
60.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 3 yds to the TexAM 36Similar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+8
60.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 8 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
60.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q2 7:26
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+16
60.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 16 yds to the TexAM 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
60.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the TexAM 5Similar
Q2 6:15
2ND & 3
OPP 5
0
60.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Caleb DuckingSimilar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 3
OPP 5
+5
68.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 5 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:4534% → 32%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.1%
Devon Achane run for no gain to the TexAM 25Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
66.6%
Max Johnson run for 7 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
66.7%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to LT OvertonSimilar
Q2 4:17
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
67.7%
Nik Constantinou punt for 38 yds, downed at the MisSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:1368% → 80%
Q2 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
68.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+18
69.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 18 yds to the TexAM 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
70.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 10 yds to the TexAM 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
70.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q2 2:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
70.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+27
70.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 27 yds to the TexAM 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
71.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire CalvinSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
71.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the TexAM 4Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
79.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 4 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 10FUMBLE
11 plays · 30 yds · 0:4223% → 22%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
77.0%
Max Johnson sacked by J.P. Purvis for a loss of 7 yards to the TexAM 38Similar
Q2 0:35
2ND & 17
OWN 38
+24
80.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 24 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
77.8%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Moose Muhammad IIISimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+15
77.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Donovan Green for 15 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-7
76.5%
Max Johnson sacked by Randy Charlton for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 17
OPP 30
+15
79.9%
Johnson, Max pass incomplete to Marshall, Chris, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Matthews, Jackie) 15 yards to the MISSSTATE15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
78.2%
Max Johnson sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 31 Max Johnson fumbled, forced by Nathaniel Watson, recovered by MisSt Tyrus Wheat , return for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+7
82.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 12FG
16 plays · 72 yds · 6:0621% → 23%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
79.5%
Devon Achane run for 9 yds to the TexAM 31Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+3
78.3%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the TexAM 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
79.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Evan Stewart for 9 yds to the TexAM 43Similar
Q3 13:22
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+16
78.6%
Devon Achane run for 16 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
78.7%
Devon Achane run for 3 yds to the MisSt 38Similar
Q3 12:08
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+1
79.3%
Devon Achane run for 1 yd to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
79.9%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q3 11:16
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+17
80.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Evan Stewart for 2 yds to the MisSt 35, MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul Targeting (15 Yards) to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
78.3%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 25Similar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+9
79.4%
Max Johnson pass complete to Chris Marshall for 9 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+8
78.8%
Devon Achane run for 8 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
79.2%
Devon Achane run for 2 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
79.5%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
80.6%
Max Johnson pass incomplete to Evan StewartSimilar
Q3 8:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
76.9%
Randy Bond 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:2580% → 81%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
80.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 5 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 8:12
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+9
80.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 2 yds Caleb Ducking fumbled, forced by Deuce Harmon, recovered by TexAM Walter Nolen , return for 9 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 14TD
7 plays · -1 yds · 3:0826% → 7%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
74.5%
Johnson, Max pass incomplete to Achane, Devon, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference 3 yards to the MISSSTATE22, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
74.5%
Devon Achane run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 7:10
2ND & 15
OPP 27
+1
76.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Devon Achane for 1 yd to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 14
OPP 26
-5
78.3%
TEXAS A&M Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 19
OPP 31
+5
78.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Chris Marshall for 5 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q3 5:02
4TH & 14
OPP 26
+50
91.5%
Decamerion Richardson 50 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Ben Raybon Kick)Similar
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
93.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (TEAM) to the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 15TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 2:078% → 21%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
91.7%
Max Johnson run for 2 yds to the TexAM 30Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+4
91.8%
Max Johnson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 4 yds to the TexAM 34Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+36
92.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 36 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
91.1%
Max Johnson pass complete to Evan Stewart for 12 yds to the MisSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
78.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 18 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:4885% → 96%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
84.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+8
85.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 8 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
86.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 14 yds to the TexAM 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
86.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the TexAM 42Similar
Q3 0:33
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+13
87.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 13 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
87.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 4 yds to the TexAM 25Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 6
OPP 25
+14
87.8%
Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Robinson, Justin, PENALTY TEXASAM pass interference (Harris, Denver) 14 yards to the TEXASAM11, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
87.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin RobinsonSimilar
Q4 14:39
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+10
87.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 10 yds to the TexAM 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
87.8%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 2Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
88.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
87.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 1 yd to the TexAM 1Similar
Q4 12:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 17TD
16 plays · 82 yds · 5:215% → 10%
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
95.4%
Max Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+11
95.5%
Max Johnson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 11 yds to the TexAM 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+12
95.7%
Max Johnson pass complete to Chris Marshall for 12 yds to the TexAM 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-8
95.8%
Max Johnson sacked by Jevon Banks and J.P. Purvis for a loss of 8 yards to the TexAM 33Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 18
OWN 33
+26
96.2%
Max Johnson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 26 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
95.9%
Max Johnson pass complete to Chris Marshall for 1 yd to the MisSt 40Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+7
96.0%
Max Johnson pass complete to Devon Achane for 7 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 9:13
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+4
95.9%
Devon Achane run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
95.6%
Haynes King pass complete to Devon Achane for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 8:22
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+10
95.7%
Haynes King run for 10 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
95.8%
King, Haynes pass incomplete to Stewart, Evan, PENALTY MISSSTATE holding (Richardson, Decamerion) 9 yards to the MISSSTATE8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q4 7:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
95.8%
Haynes King pass incomplete to Moose Muhammad IIISimilar
Q4 7:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
95.8%
Haynes King pass complete to Donovan Green for 4 yds to the MisSt 4Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.3%
Haynes King pass incomplete to Moose Muhammad IIISimilar
Q4 7:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
90.0%
Haynes King run for 4 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
97.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 75 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 19INT
4 plays · 33 yds · 0:563% → 3%
Q4 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 7 yds to the TexAM 32Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+26
97.0%
Haynes King pass complete to Evan Stewart for 26 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
97.1%
Haynes King pass intercepted Emmanuel Forbes return for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 54 yds · 2:1198% → 98%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q4 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+21
98.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 21 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+26
98.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 26 yds to the TexAM 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
98.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Caleb DuckingSimilar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+7
98.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 7 yds to the TexAM 21Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 3
OPP 21
0
98.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire CalvinSimilar
Q4 3:43
4TH & 3
OPP 21
+39
98.4%
Ben Raybon 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 21INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:092% → 0%
Q4 3:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
98.1%
Haynes King pass incomplete to Jalen PrestonSimilar
Q4 3:29
2ND & 10
OWN 21
-33
99.7%
Haynes King pass intercepted for a TD Emmanuel Forbes return for 33 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
99.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TA&MDrive 22TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 1:410% → 2%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
99.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Devin Price for 5 yds to the TexAM 44Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+14
99.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 14 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.7%
Haynes King pass incomplete to Devin PriceSimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+14
99.7%
King, Haynes pass incomplete to Muhammad III, Moose, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Johnson, Jett) 14 yards to the MISSSTATE28, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.7%
Haynes King pass incomplete to Moose Muhammad IIISimilar
Q4 2:13
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+12
99.7%
King, Haynes pass incomplete to Muhammad III, Moose, PENALTY MISSSTATE pass interference (Washington, Hunter) 12 yards to the MISSSTATE16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXASAM.Similar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
99.7%
Haynes King pass complete to Devin Price for 5 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q4 1:41
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+10
99.7%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 10 yds to the MisSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
97.8%
LJ Johnson Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23END OF GAME
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:5299% → 99%
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
99.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the TexAM 39Similar
Q4 0:38
2ND & 5
OPP 39
-1
99.1%
Simeon Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexAM 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:02
Decamerion Richardson 50 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Ben Raybon Kick)
+12.7
TD · Q3 2:35
Max Johnson pass complete to Moose Muhammad III for 18 yds for a TD, (Randy Bond KICK)
-12.2
TD · Q2 0:58
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 4 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)
+8.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com