Try the model
MSST

Mississippi State 6 at Alabama 30

ALA
2022 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2022 · Bryant-Denny Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ALA
modelALA aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playALA scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:06 · Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin Robinson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.0+21.50−21.5−43.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Pregame prior+20.9Home team on offense+23.6Score differential+15.5Garbage-time factor+4.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.8Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:57: Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 31 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +1.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:38: Jahmyr Gibbs run for 19 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +2.6 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 9:55: Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 17 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST down — ALA win probability +0.9 pts (now 93%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 8:19: Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 6 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK) — ALA win probability +3.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 14:49: Will Reichard 33 yd FG GOOD — ALA win probability +1.0 pts (now 100%) (top driver: ALA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ALA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MSST made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 13:14MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:36ALA 4th & 10 at ALA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:15MSST 4th & 3 at ALA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    11.8%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:41MSST 4th & 2 at ALA 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    11.3%−0.5
    36% to make
    Punt
    11.3%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:44MSST 4th & 1 at ALA 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%−0.5
    62% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:21MSST 4th & 12 at ALA 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.4
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:03MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.0%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:19MSST 4th & 7 at MSST 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:54ALA 4th & 8 at MSST 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    95.4%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:57MSST 4th & 15 at MSST 29, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.4%−0.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:06ALA 4th & 9 at MSST 44, up 24
    Close callPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    96.4%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:40ALA 4th & 7 at ALA 47, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:06MSST 4th & 12 at ALA 31, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.2%−0.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%
    54% to make
    Punt
    2.2%−0.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:25ALA 4th & 25 at MSST 46, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.5
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:12MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 15, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:14ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 45, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:49ALA 4th & 15 at MSST 15, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−0.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:16MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 32, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:13ALA 4th & 3 at MSST 20, up 27
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:23MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 37, down 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:58ALA 4th & 8 at ALA 36, up 30
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  22. Q4 3:10MSST 4th & 4 at MSST 29, down 30
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ALA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:57ALA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:38ALA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:19ALA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:417% → 8%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
92.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
92.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 13:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
92.4%
George Georgopoulos punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:2492% → 92%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
92.4%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 20Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+7
92.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 7 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q1 12:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
92.1%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:55
4TH & 5
OWN 27
-5
92.0%
ALABAMA Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Alab 22Similar
Q1 11:36
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
91.9%
James Burnip punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3DOWNS
13 plays · 57 yds · 5:128% → 10%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
91.9%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+7
91.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
91.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the MisSt 38Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+12
91.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:51
1ST & 10
50
+4
91.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 4 yds to the Alab 46Similar
Q1 9:11
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+3
91.1%
Simeon Price run for 3 yds to the Alab 43Similar
Q1 8:44
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+6
91.0%
Simeon Price run for 6 yds to the Alab 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
90.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the Alab 36Similar
Q1 7:44
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+14
90.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 14 yds to the Alab 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
90.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
90.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+7
90.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the Alab 15Similar
Q1 6:15
4TH & 3
OPP 15
0
90.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 4TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:0390% → 92%
Q1 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
90.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jase McClellan for 11 yds to the Alab 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:41
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
90.4%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the Alab 29Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+40
90.2%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 40 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
90.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for no gain to the MisSt 31Similar
Q1 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
90.4%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:57
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+31
91.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 31 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5MISSED FG
16 plays · 39 yds · 5:249% → 10%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
91.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
91.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q1 3:05
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+12
90.7%
Simeon Price run for 12 yds to the Alab 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
90.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 7 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 3
OPP 40
+1
90.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 1 yd to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 2
OPP 39
0
90.3%
Simeon Price run for no gain to the Alab 39Similar
Q1 0:41
4TH & 2
OPP 39
+3
90.4%
Will Rogers run for 3 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
89.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 9 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 1
OPP 27
0
89.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 1
OPP 27
0
89.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:44
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+2
90.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the Alab 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
89.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-1
89.3%
Simeon Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alab 26Similar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 12
OPP 26
0
89.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:21
4TH & 12
OPP 26
+43
90.3%
Massimo Biscardi 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 6TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 1:3290% → 93%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
90.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Roydell Williams for 4 yds to the Alab 30Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+16
90.3%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 16 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
90.7%
Young, Bryce pass incomplete, PENALTY MISSSTATE roughing passer 15 yards to the MISSSTATE39, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
90.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 5
OPP 34
+15
90.8%
Young, Bryce pass incomplete to Bond, Isaiah, PENALTY MISSSTATE personal foul 15 yards to the MISSSTATE19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q2 11:38
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
93.4%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 19 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:178% → 8%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
92.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 4 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 10:45
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+5
92.3%
Simeon Price run for 5 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 10:06
3RD & 1
OWN 29
0
92.3%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Caleb DuckingSimilar
Q2 10:03
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
92.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 8TD
4 plays · 29 yds · 1:3693% → 97%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+17
93.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 17 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
93.4%
Roydell Williams run for no gain to the MisSt 12Similar
Q2 8:57
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+6
93.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Roydell Williams for 6 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q2 8:19
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
96.6%
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 6 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:534% → 4%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin RobinsonSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
95.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+8
95.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 8 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 7:32
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
95.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
95.9%
Archer Trafford punt for 60 yds, downed at the Alab 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 10FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:5897% → 97%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
96.5%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 1 yd to the Alab 13Similar
Q2 6:38
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
96.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahmyr GibbsSimilar
Q2 6:14
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+23
96.5%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 23 yds to the Alab 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
96.7%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 5:05
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+5
96.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 5 yds to the Alab 44Similar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+7
96.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 7 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+15
96.9%
Young, Bryce pass incomplete to Brooks, Ja'Corey, PENALTY MISSSTATE roughing passer 15 yards to the MISSSTATE34, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
96.9%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q2 3:24
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-1
97.1%
Jase McClellan run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 32Similar
Q2 2:58
3RD & 8
OPP 32
0
97.1%
Bryce Young pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:54
4TH & 8
OPP 32
+50
96.9%
Will Reichard 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:384% → 3%
Q2 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
96.4%
Will Rogers sacked by Brian Branch for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 15
OWN 29
0
96.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 15
OWN 29
0
96.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:57
4TH & 15
OWN 29
0
96.6%
Archer Trafford punt for 16 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3497% → 97%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-2
97.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kobe Prentice for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 1:24
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+3
97.4%
Bryce Young pass complete to Kobe Prentice for 3 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
97.5%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q2 1:06
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
97.3%
James Burnip punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13END OF HALF
9 plays · 23 yds · 0:503% → 4%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
96.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 7 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+5
96.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-2
96.4%
Will Rogers sacked by Will Anderson Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
96.6%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin RobinsonSimilar
Q2 0:07
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+21
96.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 21 yds to the Alab 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
96.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
96.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 7 yds to the Alab 39Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-15
96.2%
Will Rogers sacked by Dallas Turner and Jamil Burroughs for a loss of 15 yards to the MisSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 22 yds · 2:1097% → 97%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.1%
Bryce Young run for no gain to the Alab 25Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.1%
Jase McClellan run for 2 yds to the Alab 27Similar
Q3 13:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+17
97.1%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jermaine Burton for 17 yds to the Alab 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
97.3%
Jase McClellan run for 3 yds to the Alab 47Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 7
OWN 47
0
97.4%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q3 12:47
3RD & 7
OWN 47
0
97.3%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
Q3 12:40
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
97.1%
James Burnip punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15DOWNS
14 plays · 50 yds · 4:313% → 2%
Q3 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
97.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rufus HarveySimilar
Q3 12:20
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+6
97.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 6 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+7
97.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 7 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
97.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rufus HarveySimilar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
97.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+12
97.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 12 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
97.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 11 yds to the Alab 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
97.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 5 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q3 10:01
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-8
97.4%
Will Rogers sacked by DeMarcco Hellams for a loss of 8 yards to the Alab 48Similar
Q3 9:17
3RD & 13
OPP 48
+19
97.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 19 yds to the Alab 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
97.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for a loss of 2 yards to the Alab 31Similar
Q3 8:17
2ND & 12
OPP 31
0
97.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q3 8:13
3RD & 12
OPP 31
0
97.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin RobinsonSimilar
Q3 8:06
4TH & 12
OPP 31
0
97.7%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:3498% → 98%
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
97.7%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 12 yds to the Alab 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
97.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 13 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
97.9%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jahmyr GibbsSimilar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
98.0%
Bryce Young pass complete to Isaiah Bond for 8 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q3 6:30
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+5
97.9%
Jase McClellan run for 5 yds to the MisSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-9
98.3%
Bryce Young sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 9 yards to the MisSt 40Similar
Q3 5:17
2ND & 19
OPP 40
-6
98.3%
Bryce Young sacked by Randy Charlton for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 46 Bryce Young fumbled, recovered by Alab Bryce Young , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 25
OPP 46
0
98.3%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Traeshon HoldenSimilar
Q3 4:25
4TH & 25
OPP 46
0
98.2%
James Burnip punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:582% → 2%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
98.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 5 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
98.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for no gain to the MisSt 15Similar
Q3 3:20
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
98.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin RobinsonSimilar
Q3 3:12
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
98.4%
George Georgopoulos punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Kool-Aid McKinstry at the Alab 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 18FUMBLE
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5499% → 99%
Q3 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
98.6%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Ja'Corey BrooksSimilar
Q3 2:57
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+2
98.6%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 2 yds to the Alab 45Similar
Q3 2:24
3RD & 8
OWN 45
0
98.7%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to JoJo EarleSimilar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 8
OWN 45
+3
98.6%
James Burnip punt for 41 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 3 yds to the MisSt 17 Zavion Thomas fumbled, recovered by Alab Jaylen MoodySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 19FG
8 plays · 2 yds · 2:1699% → 100%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+8
98.8%
Bryce Young pass complete to Jahmyr Gibbs for 8 yds to the MisSt 9Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 2
OPP 9
-5
98.8%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 14Similar
Q3 1:16
3RD & 7
OPP 14
+5
98.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MisSt 9Similar
Q3 0:40
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+5
98.8%
McClellan, Jase rush for no gain to the MISSSTATE9, PENALTY MISSSTATE face mask 5 yards to the MISSSTATE4, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ALABAMA.Similar
Q3 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
98.9%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Cameron LatuSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-11
98.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 11 yards to the MisSt 15 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Alab Roydell WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
98.9%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Jermaine BurtonSimilar
Q4 14:49
4TH & GOAL
OPP 15
+33
99.8%
Will Reichard 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 1:180% → 0%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
Simeon Price run for 2 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+3
99.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 3 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
99.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q4 13:16
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
99.9%
George Georgopoulos punt for 40 yds, downed at the Alab 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 21FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:52100% → 100%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
99.9%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 7 yds to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+3
99.9%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 3 yds to the Alab 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:04
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.9%
Bryce Young pass incomplete to Isaiah BondSimilar
Q4 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Bryce Young run for 2 yds to the Alab 40Similar
Q4 11:14
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+33
99.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Ja'Corey Brooks for 18 yds to the ALABAMA 42 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
99.9%
Jahmyr Gibbs run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 10:21
2ND & 13
OPP 30
+11
99.9%
Bryce Young pass complete to Cameron Latu for 11 yds to the MisSt 19Similar
Q4 9:50
3RD & 2
OPP 19
-1
99.9%
Roydell Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 20Similar
Q4 9:13
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+38
99.9%
Will Reichard 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:370% → 0%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 13 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
100.0%
Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Robinson, Justin, PENALTY MISSSTATE personal foul 15 yards to the MISSSTATE23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+8
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 8 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+6
100.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 7:33
3RD & 11
OWN 37
0
100.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q4 7:23
4TH & 11
OWN 37
0
100.0%
George Georgopoulos punt for 41 yds, downed at the Alab 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ALADrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:17100% → 100%
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
99.9%
Jase McClellan run for a loss of 3 yards to the Alab 19Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+3
99.9%
Roydell Williams run for 3 yds to the Alab 22Similar
Q4 5:58
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+12
99.9%
Jalen Milroe pass complete to Tyler Harrell for 12 yds to the Alab 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
99.9%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the Alab 35Similar
Q4 4:32
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+1
99.9%
Roydell Williams run for 1 yd to the Alab 36Similar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 8
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Jalen Milroe pass incomplete to Christian LearySimilar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 8
OWN 36
0
99.9%
James Burnip punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MisSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24END OF GAME
19 plays · 76 yds · 3:500% → 1%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 5 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rufus HarveySimilar
Q4 3:19
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
100.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 4
OWN 29
+10
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 10 yds to the MisSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 5 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+6
100.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
50
0
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:40
2ND & 10
50
0
100.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Caleb DuckingSimilar
Q4 1:35
3RD & 10
50
0
100.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Rara ThomasSimilar
Q4 1:26
4TH & 10
50
+13
100.0%
Rogers, Will pass complete to Thomas, Rara for 13 yards to the ALABAMA37, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference 13 yards to the ALABAMA37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MISSSTATE.Similar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+20
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 20 yds to the Alab 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
100.0%
Simeon Price run for 9 yds to the Alab 8Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 1
OPP 8
0
100.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jamire CalvinSimilar
Q4 0:31
3RD & 1
OPP 8
-5
100.0%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Alab 13Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+9
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 9 yds to the Alab 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:20
1ST & 0
OPP 4
+2
99.9%
Rogers, Will pass incomplete to Ducking, Caleb, PENALTY ALABAMA pass interference 2 yards to the ALABAMA2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 0:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
100.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 1 yd to the Alab 1Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:19
Bryce Young pass complete to Traeshon Holden for 6 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)
+3.2
TD · Q2 11:38
Jahmyr Gibbs run for 19 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q1 3:57
Bryce Young pass complete to JoJo Earle for 31 yds for a TD, (Will Reichard KICK)
+1.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com