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ARK

Arkansas 17 at Mississippi State 40

MSST
2022 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2022 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadARK aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreARK score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:32 · Archer Trafford punt for 41 yds, downed at the Ark 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Home team on offense+6.9Pregame prior+14.7Score differential+3.5Garbage-time factor+2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:03: Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 10 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK) — MSST win probability +9.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:11: Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +10.0 pts (now 24%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:16: Caleb Ducking 33 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — MSST win probability +7.1 pts (now 90%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:33: Malik Hornsby pass complete to Bryce Stephens for 54 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK) — ARK win probability +10.2 pts (now 20%) (top driver: ARK has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:54: Dillon Johnson run for 30 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK) — MSST win probability +13.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ARK made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 8:50ARK 4th & 18 at ARK 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%−0.3
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:50MSST 4th & 3 at ARK 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    73.4%−0.1
    87% to make
    Punt
    72.4%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:56ARK 4th & 1 at MSST 8, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    22.0%−1.3
    90% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−4.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:32MSST 4th & 10 at ARK 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    79.2%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    79.7%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:05ARK 4th & 1 at ARK 10, down 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.1%−1.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:05MSST 4th & 3 at ARK 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    79.8%−0.4
    81% to make
    Punt
    75.1%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:56ARK 4th & 10 at MSST 33, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.1%
    49% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:56MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 34, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.8%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:27MSST 4th & 1 at ARK 29, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.2%−1.1
    58% to make
    Punt
    83.1%−4.2
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:13MSST 4th & 3 at ARK 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.9
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    79.6%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:24ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 5, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:16ARK 4th & 1 at MSST 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    7.2%−2.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−10.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:53MSST 4th & 14 at MSST 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−2.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:44ARK 4th & 7 at MSST 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−0.4
    40% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:25MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 28, up 23
    Close callPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:59ARK 4th & 6 at ARK 32, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 4 of 6ARK made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 11:15MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:10MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:03MSST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 1:11ARK Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:16MSST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    90.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:33ARK Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 0:54MSST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:28MSST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:4570% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
70.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 9 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+5
70.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Offsides (5 Yards) to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
70.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Ark 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+7
70.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
70.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 8 yds to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+6
70.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the Ark 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
70.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+20
70.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 20 yds to the Ark 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
70.2%
ROGERS, Will pass to the left incomplete intended for THOMAS, Rara broken up by CHAVIS, Malik at the ARK0. PENALTY ARK Offsides on HAMPTON, Terry enforced half the distance from the goal, 2 yards from the ARK4 to the ARK2 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
70.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Ark 1Similar
Q1 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 2:2529% → 29%
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
70.7%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
70.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+6
70.7%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 6 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
70.6%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
70.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 39Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 9
OWN 39
-9
70.7%
Cade Fortin sacked by Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 9 yards to the Ark 30Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 18
OWN 30
0
71.5%
Max Fletcher punt for 25 yds, downed at the MisSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
12 plays · 55 yds · 4:4072% → 77%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
71.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 5
50
+7
71.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the Ark 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
71.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the Ark 36Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+2
71.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+15
71.6%
ARKANSAS Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Jayden Johnson) to the Ark 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
71.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 10
OPP 18
0
71.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+7
71.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the Ark 11Similar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 3
OPP 11
+4
71.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Ark 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
71.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the Ark 6Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
71.8%
Dillon Johnson run for 1 yd to the Ark 5Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
76.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 5 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 67 yds · 2:1425% → 25%
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Jadon Haselwood) to the Ark 20Similar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+52
75.1%
Malik Hornsby run for 52 yds to the MisSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
73.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the MisSt 27Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+5
74.1%
Raheim Sanders run for 5 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+5
74.3%
Malik Hornsby run for 5 yds to the MisSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
73.9%
Cade Fortin pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 2 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+7
73.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 7 yds to the MisSt 8Similar
Q1 4:10
3RD & 1
OPP 8
0
74.2%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:56
4TH & 1
OPP 8
0
75.1%
Raheim Sanders run for no gain to the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 50 yds · 3:2477% → 78%
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+12
76.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 12 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+38
77.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 38 yds to the Ark 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
77.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ark 39Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
78.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 4 yds to the Ark 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+1
78.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 34
-15
77.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Caleb Ducking) to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 37
-5
77.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Will Rogers) to the Ark 42Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
78.2%
Archer Trafford punt for 41 yds, downed at the Ark 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2722% → 22%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
77.6%
AJ Green run for 5 yds to the Ark 6Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+4
77.7%
AJ Green run for 4 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 1
OWN 10
0
77.5%
AJ Green run for no gain to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 1
OWN 10
+12
78.0%
Reid Bauer punt for 42 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 12 yds to the Ark 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:0280% → 89%
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
80.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the Ark 34Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+11
80.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the Ark 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
80.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+7
80.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 7 yds to the Ark 16Similar
Q2 12:05
3RD & 3
OPP 16
0
79.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:05
4TH & 3
OPP 16
+4
79.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Ark 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
80.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the Ark 10Similar
Q2 12:05
2ND & 8
OPP 10
0
80.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
89.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 10 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 8FG
10 plays · 42 yds · 3:0712% → 16%
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
88.0%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+6
87.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
87.6%
Raheim Sanders run for 2 yds to the Ark 37Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+9
87.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 9 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
87.5%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Ketron Jackson Jr. for 21 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
86.7%
AJ Green run for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 9:03
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+1
86.5%
AJ Green run for 1 yd to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 5
OPP 28
-5
87.0%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 9:03
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
87.6%
Cade Fortin pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+51
83.8%
Cam Little 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:2985% → 86%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
84.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 3 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
84.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 34Similar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+4
84.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
85.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 10 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
85.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ark 49Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+11
85.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 11 yds to the Ark 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
85.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Scoobie Ford for 9 yds to the Ark 29Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
85.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 1
OPP 29
0
84.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 1
OPP 29
0
86.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 10TD
2 plays · 71 yds · 0:1614% → 24%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+68
86.5%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 68 yds to the MisSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 0:5181% → 81%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+22
81.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 22 yds to the Ark 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+3
81.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 3 yds to the Ark 44Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 7
OPP 44
+15
81.4%
ROGERS, Will pass to the left incomplete intended for GRIFFIN, Lideatrick thrown to the ARK3. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on MCGLOTHERN, Dwight enforced 15 yards to the ARK29 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
81.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
81.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the Ark 22Similar
Q2 0:17
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
81.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+40
80.6%
Ben Raybon 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 12END OF HALF
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:1319% → 19%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
80.8%
Malik Hornsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+6
81.0%
Malik Hornsby run for 6 yds to the Ark 28Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+23
81.0%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 23 yds to the MISSSTATE 49 for a 1ST down ARKANSAS Penalty, Offensive Holding (AJ Green) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:3020% → 18%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
80.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the Ark 2Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+3
80.7%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 5Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 6
OWN 5
0
81.4%
Malik Hornsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:24
4TH & 6
OWN 5
0
82.2%
Reid Bauer punt for 53 yds, downed at the MisSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:0883% → 90%
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
82.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+12
82.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 12 yds to the Ark 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
82.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 5 yds to the Ark 41Similar
Q3 13:24
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+8
82.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the Ark 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
82.7%
Dillon Johnson run for no gain to the Ark 33Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
89.8%
Caleb Ducking 33 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 15DOWNS
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:0011% → 13%
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
88.9%
Raheim Sanders run for 12 yds to the Ark 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+44
88.3%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 44 yds to the MisSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
86.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 6 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+3
86.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the MisSt 10Similar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+8
87.3%
Raheim Sanders run for 8 yds to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
86.5%
Raheim Sanders run for 1 yd to the MisSt 1Similar
Q3 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
86.5%
Dominique Johnson run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
Q3 8:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.3%
Malik Hornsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
87.4%
Rashod Dubinion run for no gain to the MisSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:2392% → 93%
Q3 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
91.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 2Similar
Q3 8:16
2ND & 9
OWN 2
+33
91.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 33 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
93.7%
ROGERS, Will pass to the right complete for 9 yards to ROBINSON, Justin caught at the MSU35 and advanced to the MSU44 (CLARK, Hudson;GORDON, Trent). PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on WALLEY, Jaden enforced 15 yards to the MSU20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 25
OWN 20
+11
93.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 11 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
93.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:42
3RD & 14
OWN 31
0
93.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 5:53
4TH & 14
OWN 31
-3
93.2%
Archer Trafford punt for 46 yds , Bryce Stephens returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Ark 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 17TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 2:209% → 20%
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
91.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds to the Ark 23Similar
Q3 5:53
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
91.4%
Raheim Sanders run for 4 yds to the Ark 27Similar
Q3 5:53
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+18
90.9%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Raheim Sanders for 18 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
90.7%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Jadon Haselwood for 1 yd to the Ark 46Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+54
80.5%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Bryce Stephens for 54 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2982% → 97%
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
82.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+9
81.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 9 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
83.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+11
83.6%
Dillon Johnson run for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:23
1ST & 10
50
+20
84.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 20 yds to the Ark 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
97.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 30 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 45 yds · 2:106% → 6%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.8%
Malik Hornsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
93.9%
Malik Hornsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
93.9%
Malik Hornsby run for 10 yds to the Ark 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
93.3%
Malik Hornsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
93.8%
AJ Green run for no gain to the Ark 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+25
94.1%
Malik Hornsby run for 25 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
93.4%
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Bryce Stephens for 5 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 35
-2
92.4%
Malik Hornsby sacked by Jack Harris for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
0
93.5%
Malik Hornsby pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
94.5%
Malik Hornsby pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:1698% → 99%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
98.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 6 yds to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
98.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 39Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
98.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+16
98.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 16 yds to the Ark 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
98.1%
ROGERS, Will pass to the left incomplete intended for MARKS, Jo'quavious broken up by JACKSON, Landon at the ARK38. PENALTY ARK Personal Foul on JACKSON, Landon enforced 15 yards from the ARK41 to the ARK26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
98.1%
ROGERS, Will pass up the middle incomplete intended for ROBINSON, Justin thrown to the ARK0. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on CHAVIS, Malik enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the ARK11 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
98.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the Ark 4Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+2
98.0%
ROGERS, Will pass to the left incomplete intended for CALVIN, Jamire thrown to the ARK2. PENALTY ARK Pass Interference on BRINI, Latavious enforced 2 yards to the ARK2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 21INT
7 plays · 45 yds · 3:051% → 1%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.8%
Jadon Haselwood run for 8 yds to the Ark 33Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+12
98.7%
Rashod Dubinion run for 12 yds to the Ark 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
98.7%
Malik Hornsby run for 12 yds to the MisSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-1
98.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 11
OPP 44
+10
98.6%
Rashod Dubinion run for 10 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+4
98.5%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
98.9%
Malik Hornsby pass intercepted, touchback.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:58100% → 100%
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+8
99.5%
Simeon Price run for 8 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 7:23
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
99.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
99.6%
George Georgopoulos punt for 44 yds, downed at the Ark 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARKDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 2:261% → 1%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
99.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for 4 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-1
99.2%
Rashod Dubinion run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ark 31Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 7
OWN 31
-5
99.2%
ARKANSAS Penalty, False Start (Beaux Limmer) to the Ark 26Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+6
99.3%
Malik Hornsby run for 6 yds to the Ark 32Similar
Q4 3:59
4TH & 6
OWN 32
-5
99.4%
Reid Bauer punt for 44 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for a loss of 5 yards to the MisSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 58 yds · 3:59100% → 100%
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
99.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+15
99.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 15 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.7%
J.J. Jernighan run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+28
99.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jordan Mosley for 28 yds to the Ark 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
99.7%
J.J. Jernighan run for 7 yds to the Ark 24Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+1
99.8%
J.J. Jernighan run for 1 yd to the Ark 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:54
Dillon Johnson run for 30 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)
+13
TD · Q3 3:33
Malik Hornsby pass complete to Bryce Stephens for 54 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
-10.2
TD · Q2 1:11
Raheim Sanders run for 3 yds for a TD, (Cam Little KICK)
-10
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com