Try the model
AUB

Auburn 33 at Mississippi State 39

MSST
2022 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2022 · Davis Wade Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadAUB aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreAUB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:40 · Archer Trafford punt for 13 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 110Pregame prior+11.3Home team on offense+14.3Garbage-time factor+7.0Score differential+5.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5Time remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:18: Robby Ashford run for 18 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK) — AUB win probability +15.9 pts (now 31%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 6:36: Tank Bigsby 41 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — AUB win probability +33.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 3:49: Rara Thomas 33 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) — MSST win probability +27.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:05: Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds for a TD, (R. Ashford Run For Two-point Conversion) — AUB win probability +73.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: AUB has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:29: Massimo Biscardi 44 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +28.6 pts (now 60%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10AUB made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 12:26MSST 4th & 7 at AUB 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.6%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:54AUB 4th & 9 at AUB 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:56AUB 4th & 8 at AUB 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:45MSST 4th & 2 at AUB 45, up 10
    Close callPunted · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    79.8%−1.0
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.3%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:56AUB 4th & 1 at AUB 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.0%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:34AUB 4th & 4 at AUB 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.7%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:27AUB 4th & 10 at MSST 10, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 12.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.8%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−5.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:05AUB 4th & 18 at MSST 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.2%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    7.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−2.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:57AUB 4th & 15 at AUB 43, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:08AUB 4th & 10 at midfield, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.1%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:12MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 27, up 18
    Close callWent for it · 93.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.2%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    93.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:03AUB 4th & 5 at MSST 14, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.6%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    13.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    9.9%−3.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:40MSST 4th & 18 at MSST 22, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−3.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.6%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:19MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 33, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−2.0
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:03AUB 4th & 12 at AUB 34, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−3.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:03MSST 4th & 13 at MSST 35, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−4.8
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:59AUB 4th & 20 at AUB 34, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−4.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:41MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 24, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−2.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:28MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 43, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    47.2%−3.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:29MSST 4th & 9 at AUB 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.5%−14.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    37.0%
    64% to make
    Punt
    11.4%−25.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 0:00MSST 4th & 11 at AUB 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−9.7
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.1%
    38% to make
    Punt
    56.4%−9.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3AUB made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:16MSST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:11MSST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:18AUB Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    13.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    13.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:18AUB Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:36AUB Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    50.9%−2.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    53.0%
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:49MSST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    81.2%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    82.0%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:05AUB Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    62.8%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    63.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 2:2779% → 79%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
79.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
50
+9
79.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 9 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+11
79.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 11 yds to the Aub 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+17
79.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 17 yds to the Aub 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
79.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+3
79.4%
Will Rogers run for 3 yds to the Aub 10Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
79.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+28
79.1%
Massimo Biscardi 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:2621% → 21%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
79.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 32Similar
Q1 12:20
2ND & 7
OWN 32
-2
79.0%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 30Similar
Q1 12:20
3RD & 9
OWN 30
0
79.1%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
78.9%
Oscar Chapman punt for 45 yds , returns for no gain to the MisSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
4 plays · 78 yds · 1:3879% → 80%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
78.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 3 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+57
78.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 57 yds to the Aub 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+5
79.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 5 yds to the Aub 13Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 5
OPP 13
+13
80.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 13 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:2021% → 20%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
79.3%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q1 9:16
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
79.3%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the Aub 27Similar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
79.4%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:56
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
79.6%
Oscar Chapman punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Lideatrick Griffin at the MisSt 22Similar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
79.6%
ROGERS, Will pass to the left complete for 6 yards to MARKS, Jo'quavious caught at the MSU17 and advanced to the MSU28 (RILEY, Cam). PENALTY AUB Offsides on JONES, Jayson enforced 5 yards from the MSU22 to the MSU27 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 4:1180% → 80%
Q1 7:56
1ST & 5
OWN 27
+1
79.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 1 yd to the MisSt 28Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+5
79.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 5 yds to the MisSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
79.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 9 yds to the MisSt 42Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+5
79.9%
ROGERS, Will pass to the right complete for 3 yards to DUCKING, Caleb caught at the MSU40 and advanced to the MSU45 (PRITCHETT, Nehemiah). PENALTY AUB Offsides on WOODEN, Colby enforced 5 yards from the MSU42 to the MSU47 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
79.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 7:56
2ND & 1
OPP 44
0
80.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for no gain to the Aub 44Similar
Q1 3:54
3RD & 1
OPP 44
-1
80.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 45Similar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 2
OPP 45
0
79.6%
Archer Trafford punt for 40 yds, downed at the Aub 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 6DOWNS
8 plays · 20 yds · 3:4921% → 20%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
79.2%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the Aub 8Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 7
OWN 8
+4
79.3%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the Aub 12Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+5
79.4%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the Aub 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
79.0%
Robby Ashford run for 4 yds to the Aub 21Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-5
79.1%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Jayson Jones) to the Aub 16Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 11
OWN 16
+4
79.2%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Koy Moore for 4 yds to the Aub 20Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+6
80.0%
Robby Ashford run for 6 yds to the Aub 26Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 1
OWN 26
-1
79.9%
Ja'Varrius Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7TD
4 plays · 25 yds · 0:4580% → 87%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
80.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:17
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
80.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Aub 22Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+22
86.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 22 yds for a TD, (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:3715% → 14%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
85.4%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Koy Moore for 2 yds to the Aub 27Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-10
85.4%
BIGSBY, Tank rush up the middle for a gain of 1 yard to the AUB28 (CHARLTON, Randy;BANKS, Jevon). PENALTY AUB Holding on ZIERER, Kilian enforced 10 yards from the AUB27 to the AUB17 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
85.6%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+14
85.6%
Robby Ashford run for 14 yds to the Aub 31Similar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
86.1%
Oscar Chapman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Lideatrick Griffin at the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9FUMBLE
2 plays · -11 yds · 0:4187% → 88%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
87.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for no gain to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-11
87.6%
Will Rogers sacked for a loss of 11 yards to the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 10FG
6 plays · -2 yds · 3:2615% → 16%
Q2 11:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
84.6%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
84.6%
ASHFORD, Robby scrambles up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the MSU7 (CHARLTON, Randy). PENALTY AUB Personal Foul on WRIGHT, Jeremiah enforced 15 yards from the MSU10 to the MSU25. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 25
+5
85.3%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Camden Brown for 5 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 11:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+15
85.8%
Robby Ashford run for 15 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q2 11:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
85.3%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay Of Game (Robby Ashford) to the MisSt 10Similar
Q2 8:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
84.1%
Anders Carlson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 11FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 4:079% → 12%
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
91.1%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Koy Moore for 17 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+38
90.7%
run for 38 yds to the MisSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
89.7%
Dazalin Worsham run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 21Similar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+5
90.0%
ASHFORD, Robby pass up the middle incomplete intended for SHENKER, John Samuel thrown to the MSU15. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on WHEAT, Tyrus enforced at the spot of the foul for 5 yards to the MSU16 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
89.7%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:12
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+3
89.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 3 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 7
OPP 13
-5
90.2%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 18Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 12
OPP 18
-6
90.6%
Robby Ashford sacked by Jett Johnson for a loss of 6 yards to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 4:05
4TH & 18
OPP 24
+42
88.2%
Anders Carlson 42 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12FUMBLE
8 plays · 19 yds · 2:3589% → 90%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
88.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+12
88.8%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 12 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
89.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for no gain to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
89.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 5
50
+8
88.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the Aub 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
89.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
89.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
3RD & 10
OPP 42
-6
89.6%
Will Rogers sacked for a loss of 6 yards to the Aub 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:3612% → 11%
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
88.4%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
88.7%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
89.8%
Oscar Chapman punt for 37 yds, downed at the MisSt 20Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-5
88.6%
Robby Ashford sacked by Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 5 yards to the Aub 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:5791% → 90%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
90.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 2 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
90.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+10
90.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
90.7%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
90.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+9
89.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Scoobie Ford for 9 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 1:4411% → 10%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
89.4%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 41
+9
89.5%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Camden Brown for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
50
0
88.9%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 10
50
0
89.4%
Tank Bigsby run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 10
50
0
89.7%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 10
50
0
90.4%
Oscar Chapman punt for 43 yds, downed at the MisSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:5692% → 93%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
91.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 4 yds to the MisSt 11Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+5
92.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 5 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+7
92.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 7 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
92.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 4 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
92.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 6
OWN 27
0
92.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:12
4TH & 6
OWN 27
-11
92.9%
run for a loss of 11 yards to the MisSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 17TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:5411% → 16%
Q3 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
89.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 1 yd to the MisSt 15Similar
Q3 11:12
2ND & 9
OPP 15
-5
89.0%
AUBURN Penalty, False Start (Kilian Zierer) to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 14
OPP 20
+20
84.1%
Robby Ashford 20 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18INT
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:4387% → 88%
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
87.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 19Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 13
OWN 19
0
87.9%
Will Rogers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2417% → 14%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
83.4%
Robby Ashford run for 6 yds to the MisSt 13Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 4
OPP 13
-8
83.4%
Robby Ashford sacked by Tyrus Wheat for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 21Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 12
OPP 21
+7
85.1%
Robby Ashford run for 7 yds to the MisSt 14Similar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 5
OPP 14
0
85.6%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:2388% → 87%
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+16
87.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 16 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
88.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:03
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-8
88.0%
Will Rogers sacked by Colby Wooden for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 22Similar
Q3 8:03
3RD & 18
OWN 22
0
87.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 18
OWN 22
0
87.0%
Archer Trafford punt for 13 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 21TD
5 plays · 35 yds · 2:2215% → 31%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
85.0%
Tank Bigsby run for 8 yds to the MisSt 27Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+2
84.7%
Tank Bigsby run for 2 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
84.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the MisSt 25Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
85.1%
Damari Alston run for 7 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 4:18
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+18
69.2%
Robby Ashford run for 18 yds for a TD, (Anders Carlson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:5676% → 76%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
76.0%
Will Rogers sacked by Derick Hall for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 18Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 20
OWN 18
+3
75.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q3 2:29
3RD & 17
OWN 21
+12
75.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 12 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 2:19
4TH & 5
OWN 33
0
76.1%
George Georgopoulos punt for 31 yds, downed at the Aub 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1623% → 20%
Q3 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.3%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
77.8%
Jarquez Hunter run for no gain to the Aub 36Similar
Q3 2:19
3RD & 10
OWN 36
-2
78.9%
Robby Ashford sacked by Jaden Crumedy for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 34Similar
Q3 1:03
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
80.0%
Oscar Chapman punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Lideatrick Griffin at the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 12 yds · 2:0077% → 75%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
77.1%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 1:03
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+18
76.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 18 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
78.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jaden Walley) to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 16
OWN 32
+2
77.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 2 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 34
+1
76.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 35
-5
75.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Steven Losoya III) to the MisSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 30
0
75.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 30
+5
74.7%
AUBURN Penalty, Delay Of Game (TEAM) to the MisSt 35Similar
Q4 14:03
4TH & 13
OWN 35
0
74.9%
George Georgopoulos punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 25PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 3:0422% → 20%
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
77.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 3 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-3
77.3%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 3 yards to the Aub 30Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+14
79.2%
Robby Ashford run for 14 yds to the Aub 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
75.7%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-5
76.6%
BIGSBY, Tank rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the AUB48 (WHEAT, Tyrus). PENALTY Before the snap, AUB Illegal Shift on JACKSON, Shedrick enforced 5 yards from the AUB44 to the AUB39. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 15
OWN 39
+1
77.8%
Tank Bigsby run for 1 yd to the Aub 40Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 14
OWN 40
-15
78.6%
AUBURN Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Aub 25Similar
Q4 14:03
3RD & 29
OWN 25
+9
79.6%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Tank Bigsby for 9 yds to the Aub 34Similar
Q4 10:59
4TH & 20
OWN 34
0
80.3%
Oscar Chapman punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Lideatrick Griffin at the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 2:1881% → 80%
Q4 10:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
80.6%
Will Rogers sacked by Marcus Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 17Similar
Q4 10:59
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+5
80.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 5 yds to the MisSt 22Similar
Q4 10:59
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+2
79.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 2 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 8:41
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+5
80.3%
George Georgopoulos punt for 41 yds , Dazalin Worsham returns for 5 yds to the Aub 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 27TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 2:0524% → 60%
Q4 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
75.9%
Jarquez Hunter run for 5 yds to the Aub 45Similar
Q4 8:41
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
74.6%
Robby Ashford run for 4 yds to the Aub 49Similar
Q4 8:41
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+10
74.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 10 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
40.5%
Tank Bigsby 41 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:3955% → 91%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
55.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 6 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
59.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 3 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q4 6:28
3RD & 1
OWN 44
-1
58.6%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 43Similar
Q4 6:28
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+3
56.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 3 yds to the MisSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
59.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the Aub 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
60.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 10 yds to the Aub 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
63.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+33
90.9%
Rara Thomas 33 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 29TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:4416% → 91%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
84.1%
Jarquez Hunter run for 11 yds to the Aub 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
82.3%
Robby Ashford run for 1 yd to the Aub 37Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
82.5%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+29
83.7%
Robby Ashford pass complete to Ja'Varrius Johnson for 29 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
77.1%
Tank Bigsby run for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 12
OPP 36
+10
83.5%
ASHFORD, Robby sacked for a loss of 3 yards at the MSU39 (JOHNSON, Jett;WATSON, Nathaniel). PENALTY MSU Holding on MATTHEWS, Jackie enforced 10 yards from the MSU36 to the MSU26 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:28
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+18
79.0%
Robby Ashford run for 18 yds to the MisSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:28
2ND & 12
OPP 36
0
81.7%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
8.7%
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds for a TD, (R. Ashford Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 30FG
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:2728% → 60%
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
50
+9
27.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 9 yds to the Aub 41Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+14
36.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 14 yds to the Aub 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
39.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+1
33.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 1 yd to the Aub 26Similar
Q4 0:34
3RD & 9
OPP 26
0
31.0%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 9
OPP 26
+44
59.6%
Massimo Biscardi 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 31MISSED FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:2663% → 56%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
63.0%
Will Rogers run for 15 yds to the Aub 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
64.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
63.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the Aub 33Similar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-5
64.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (LaQuinston Sharp) to the Aub 38Similar
Q4 0:09
3RD & 11
OPP 38
0
60.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 11
OPP 38
+56
56.4%
Massimo Biscardi 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AUBDrive 32MISSED FG
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0024% → 12%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
75.7%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+4
78.0%
Jarquez Hunter run for 4 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
0
82.3%
Robby Ashford pass incompleteSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
87.6%
Anders Carlson 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 33TD
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
86.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 5 yds to the Aub 20Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
86.1%
ROGERS, Will pass to the left incomplete intended for THOMAS, Rara thrown to the AUB1. PENALTY AUB Pass Interference on RHYM, J.D. enforced half the distance from the goal, 15 yards to the AUB5 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:05
Jarquez Hunter run for 8 yds for a TD, (R. Ashford Run For Two-point Conversion)
-73.9
TD · Q4 6:36
Tank Bigsby 41 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)
-33.6
FG · Q4 0:29
Massimo Biscardi 44 yd FG GOOD
+28.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com