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BGSU

Bowling Green 14 at Mississippi State 45

MSST
2022 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2022 · Davis Wade Stadium
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Win probability · MSST
modelMSST aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSST scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:49 · J.J. Jernighan run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.0+23.50−23.5−47.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 126Pregame prior+12.4Home team on offense+35.5Score differential+26.5Garbage-time factor+11.4Blowout margin+11.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+10.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:55: Camden Orth pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 25 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK) — BGSU win probability +2.9 pts (now 7%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 6:18: Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 26 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK) — MSST win probability +2.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:49: Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK) — MSST win probability +1.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:10: Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 9 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK) — MSST win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:55: Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK) — BGSU win probability +1.0 pts (now 1%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSST made the numbers' call on 7 of 7BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:07BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:01BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 20, down 14
    Close callPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:01MSST 4th & 4 at BGSU 41, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:59MSST 4th & 16 at BGSU 35, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.1%
    45% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:51BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:52MSST 4th & 11 at BGSU 45, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    96.3%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    96.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:42BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 28, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.8%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:53BGSU 4th & 13 at BGSU 22, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:21BGSU 4th & 14 at BGSU 45, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:35MSST 4th & 8 at MSST 37, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 9:49BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 30, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:49MSST 4th & 2 at BGSU 47, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:23MSST 4th & 16 at BGSU 47, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:04BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 40, down 31
    Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:40MSST 4th & 2 at MSST 34, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6BGSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:07MSST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:01MSST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:55BGSU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:18MSST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:49MSST Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:10MSST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:55BGSU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:37MSST Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1TD
6 plays · 72 yds · 1:4897% → 97%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+21
96.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 21 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
96.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+6
96.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q1 14:50
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+5
96.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
96.7%
(14:48) ROGERS, Will pass to the left complete for 4 yards to GRIFFIN, Lideatrick caught at the BGS40 and advanced to the BGS36 (SIPP JR., Joseph), clock 14:24. PENALTY BGS Face mask on SIPP JR., Joseph enforced 15 yards from the BGS37 to the BGS22 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
96.6%
Caleb Ducking 22 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Ben Raybon Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:003% → 4%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
96.6%
Camden Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.6%
Ta'ron Keith run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
96.6%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Illegal Block (Ta'ron Keith) declinedSimilar
Q1 12:07
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
96.5%
Sami Sir punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3TD
3 plays · 56 yds · 1:0697% → 97%
Q1 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
96.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q1 12:07
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+16
96.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 16 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
96.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 32 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:534% → 4%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
96.5%
Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 7 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q1 10:54
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+2
96.5%
Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 1
OWN 20
0
96.5%
Jaison Patterson run for no gain to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 1
OWN 20
0
96.4%
Sami Sir punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5FG
12 plays · 37 yds · 6:0296% → 96%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
96.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 7 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+2
96.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 2 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
96.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
96.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 13 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-4
96.5%
Will Rogers run for a loss of 4 yards to the MisSt 49 Will Rogers fumbled, recovered by MisSt Will RogersSimilar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 14
OWN 49
0
96.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 14
OWN 49
+10
96.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 10 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 4
OPP 41
+12
96.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 12 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-9
96.5%
Will Rogers sacked by JB Brown and Demetrius Hardamon for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 19
OPP 38
+1
96.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 1 yd to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 18
OPP 37
+2
96.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 2 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q1 2:59
4TH & 16
OPP 35
+53
96.4%
Ben Raybon 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:024% → 4%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
96.4%
Camden Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+5
96.4%
Camden Orth pass complete to CJ Lewis for 5 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q1 2:53
3RD & 5
OWN 23
0
96.4%
Camden Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:51
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+2
96.4%
Sami Sir punt for 36 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 2 yds to the MisSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:5997% → 96%
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
96.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 4 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+9
96.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 9 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
96.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
96.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:51
3RD & 10
OPP 44
-10
96.5%
ROGERS, Will pass to the right complete for 9 yards to DUCKING, Caleb caught at the BGS45 and advanced to the BGS35 (BURTON, Jalen). PENALTY MSU Holding on WILLIAMS, Austin enforced 10 yards from the BGS44 to the MSU46 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 20
OWN 46
+9
96.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 9 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
96.4%
George Georgopoulos punt for 42 yds, downed at the BwGrn 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8TD
11 plays · 97 yds · 5:574% → 7%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+2
96.5%
Nick Mosley run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 5Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 5
+9
96.5%
Nick Mosley run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+6
96.4%
Nick Mosley run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 4
OWN 20
-2
96.4%
PaSean Wimberly run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q2 12:01
3RD & 6
OWN 18
+10
96.4%
ORTH, Camden pass to the right intercepted by DUNCAN, Collin at the BGS35 intended for LEWIS, CJ. Duncan return for 13 yards to the BGS22 (KEITH, Ta'ron), clock 12:01. PENALTY MSU Holding on FORBES, Emmanuel enforced 10 yards from the BGS18 to the BGS28 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
96.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Jalen Green) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
96.1%
Jaison Patterson run for 1 yd to the MisSt 40Similar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+10
96.1%
Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 10 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
96.0%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Harold Fannin Jr.) to the MisSt 35Similar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+10
96.1%
PaSean Wimberly run for 10 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+25
93.2%
Camden Orth pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 25 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9TD
5 plays · 54 yds · 2:3094% → 97%
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
94.2%
Dillon Johnson run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+13
94.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 13 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
94.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 6 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q2 8:48
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+3
94.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 3 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+26
96.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 26 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:364% → 4%
Q2 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.0%
Camden Orth run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 24 Camden Orth fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Camden OrthSimilar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
96.0%
Camden Orth pass complete to Jaison Patterson for 4 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
96.0%
Camden Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:42
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
96.0%
Sami Sir punt for 27 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:5397% → 98%
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+16
96.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 16 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
96.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:42
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+15
96.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 15 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:42
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+22
96.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 22 yds to the BwGrn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12INT
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:442% → 2%
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
97.7%
Jaison Patterson run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
97.5%
Ta'ron Keith run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
97.6%
Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for 6 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+6
97.5%
Camden Orth pass complete to CJ Lewis for 6 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
97.7%
Camden Orth pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 5 yds to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 5
OPP 48
0
97.5%
Camden Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
97.6%
Camden Orth pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
50
0
98.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 2:072% → 2%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.8%
Jaison Patterson run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+2
97.7%
Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 2 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-8
97.7%
Camden Orth sacked by Collin Duncan for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
98.1%
Sami Sir punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MisSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 15TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:4398% → 100%
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+40
98.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 40 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
98.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+5
98.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offsides (Karl Brooks) to the BwGrn 20Similar
Q3 12:53
2ND & 5
OPP 20
+2
98.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 2 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q3 12:53
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+9
98.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 9 yds to the BwGrn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 9 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 4:490% → 0%
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.6%
Nick Mosley run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.6%
Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 4 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+19
99.6%
Camden Orth pass complete to Odieu Hiliare for 19 yds to the BwGrn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
99.6%
PaSean Wimberly run for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 14
OWN 45
+5
99.6%
Camden Orth run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:10
3RD & 9
50
-5
99.6%
Camden Orth sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 6:21
4TH & 14
OWN 45
0
99.7%
Sami Sir punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Zavion Thomas at the MisSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 24 yds · 1:46100% → 100%
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
99.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 8 yds to the MisSt 21Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+14
99.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 14 yds Rara Thomas fumbled, recovered by MisSt Rara Thomas for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.8%
Simeon Price run for 2 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:21
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
99.8%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+8
99.8%
Archer Trafford punt for 43 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for 8 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:400% → 1%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
99.7%
Camden Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+13
99.7%
Camden Orth pass complete to Griffin Little for 13 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
99.7%
KEITH, Ta'ron rush to the left for a loss of 1 yard to the BGS40 (JOHNSON, Jett;FURDGE, Esaias). PENALTY MSU Illegal Block in the Back on FURDGE, Esaias enforced 10 yards from the BGS45 to the MSU45 and results in a 1ST DOWN [NH]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
99.6%
Jaison Patterson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
99.6%
Camden Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+7
99.6%
Camden Orth run for 7 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+2
99.6%
Nick Mosley run for 2 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 4:35
2ND & 8
OPP 32
0
99.6%
Camden Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:35
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+23
99.6%
Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 23 yds to the MisSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
99.9%
Jaison Patterson run for 4 yds to the MisSt 5Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
98.9%
Camden Orth pass complete to Harold Fannin Jr. for 5 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:1099% → 100%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
99.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 9 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 1
OWN 37
+3
99.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 3 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
99.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 13 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
99.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 15 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.1%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+13
99.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 13 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
99.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 11 yds to the BwGrn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 8 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:480% → 0%
Q4 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
99.9%
Camden Orth pass complete to Cavon Croom for 7 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-5
99.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, False Start (Kameren Stewart) to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q4 11:37
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
99.9%
Jaylen Jennings run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q4 11:37
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Camden Orth pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Sami Sir punt for 42 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 5 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:26100% → 100%
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
99.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Scoobie Ford for 12 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
99.9%
Simeon Price run for 2 yds to the MisSt 47Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+6
99.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Scoobie Ford for 6 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 2
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:49
4TH & 2
OPP 47
+6
99.9%
J.J. Jernighan run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-8
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson sacked by Cashius Howell for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q4 9:49
2ND & 18
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for 2 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q4 9:49
3RD & 16
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 16
OPP 47
0
99.9%
George Georgopoulos punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 4:190% → 0%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.9%
Jaylen Jennings run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+8
100.0%
Jaylen Jennings run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
99.9%
Jaylen Jennings run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 2
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Jaylen Jennings run for no gain to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Camden Orth pass complete to Ta'ron Keith for no gain to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 2:04
4TH & 2
OWN 40
0
100.0%
Sami Sir punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:24100% → 100%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Scoobie Ford for 2 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-1
99.9%
Simeon Price run for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 27Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 9
OWN 27
+7
99.9%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Simeon Price for 7 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
99.9%
George Georgopoulos punt for 47 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for no gain to the BwGrn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
100.0%
Jaylen Jennings run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:55
Camden Orth pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 25 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK)
-2.9
TD · Q2 6:18
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 26 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)
+2.3
TD · Q3 11:10
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 9 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)
+1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com