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MSST

Mississippi State 19 at Illinois 10

ILL
2022 · ReliaQuest Bowl · Jan 2, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · ILL
modelILL aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playILL scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:53 · George Georgopoulos punt for 48 yds , Isaiah Williams returns for 8 yds to the Illin 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 34Pregame prior−7.3Home team on offense−0.5Score differential−0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.5Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:49: Tommy DeVito run for 2 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK) — ILL win probability +9.8 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:54: Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 8 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK) — MSST win probability +21.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:10: Reggie Love III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 40 — ILL win probability +6.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: ILL has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 0:12: Timeout MISSISSIPPI ST, clock 00:12 — MSST win probability +6.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:04: Massimo Biscardi 27 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +31.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ILL made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MSST made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:39MSST 4th & 6 at MSST 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.9%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:28ILL 4th & 5 at ILL 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:01MSST 4th & 5 at MSST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:52ILL 4th & 19 at MSST 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.3%−0.5
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    44.6%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:53MSST 4th & 10 at MSST 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:02ILL 4th & 8 at ILL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.7%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:20ILL 4th & 11 at MSST 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−0.7
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:09MSST 4th & 3 at ILL 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%−1.2
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−4.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:53ILL 4th & 10 at ILL 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:10MSST 4th & 1 at MSST 35, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.6%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:57ILL 4th & 14 at MSST 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.8%
    47% to make
    Punt
    59.6%−1.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:54MSST 4th & 2 at ILL 8, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.1%
    54% to convert
    Field goal
    26.8%−2.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    12.4%−16.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:09ILL 4th & 12 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.3%−3.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.8%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:34MSST 4th & 12 at ILL 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.7%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    45.8%−0.8
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:50ILL 4th & 6 at ILL 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.0%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ILL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MSST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q2 2:49ILL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 14:54MSST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:5159% → 58%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
41.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 7 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q1 14:10
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
41.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
41.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 12:48
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
41.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 12:39
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+2
41.8%
George Georgopoulos punt for 37 yds , Hank Beatty returns for 2 yds to the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5242% → 42%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
41.9%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Sherman Timbs for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 34Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+7
42.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 7 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
42.1%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q1 11:28
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
42.0%
Hugh Robertson punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MisSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:1258% → 57%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
42.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 6 yds to the MisSt 18Similar
Q1 10:53
2ND & 4
OWN 18
0
42.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 4
OWN 18
+5
42.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 5 yds to the MisSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
42.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 12 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
42.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
42.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Justin RobinsonSimilar
Q1 9:07
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
42.5%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
42.9%
George Georgopoulos punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Williams at the Illin 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 4MISSED FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 4:5843% → 44%
Q1 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
42.8%
Reggie Love III run for no gain to the Illin 20Similar
Q1 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+23
42.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 8 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST down MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Illin 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+21
43.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 21 yds to the MisSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
44.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 2 yds to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+5
44.4%
Reggie Love III run for 5 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+4
44.3%
Reggie Love III run for 4 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
44.9%
ILLINOIS Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 30Similar
Q1 5:32
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+1
44.9%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the MisSt 29Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+5
44.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 5 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 9
OPP 24
-10
45.1%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Randy Charlton for a loss of 10 yards to the MisSt 34Similar
Q1 3:52
4TH & 19
OPP 34
+52
43.7%
Caleb Griffin 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:5256% → 55%
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
43.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 13 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
43.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jo'quavious MarksSimilar
Q1 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
43.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q1 3:04
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
43.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Caleb DuckingSimilar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 10
OWN 47
+8
44.8%
George Georgopoulos punt for 48 yds , Isaiah Williams returns for 8 yds to the Illin 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:3845% → 44%
Q1 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
44.6%
Reggie Love III run for 2 yds to the Illin 15Similar
Q1 2:19
2ND & 8
OWN 15
0
44.9%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:14
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
44.2%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q1 2:02
4TH & 8
OWN 15
+9
43.9%
Hugh Robertson punt for 54 yds , Lideatrick Griffin returns for 9 yds to the MisSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 7INT
8 plays · 53 yds · 3:4057% → 57%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
43.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 4 yds to the MisSt 44Similar
Q1 1:03
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+17
43.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 17 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
43.0%
Will Rogers run for no gain to the Illin 39Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+4
43.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 4 yds to the Illin 35Similar
Q2 14:50
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+16
43.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 16 yds to the Illin 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
42.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 6 yds to the Illin 13Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+6
42.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds to the Illin 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-17
42.7%
Will Rogers pass intercepted Matthew Bailey return for 17 yds to the Illin 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:3046% → 47%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
46.3%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 6 yds to the Illin 23Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+5
46.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 5 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+12
46.8%
Reggie Love III run for 12 yds to the Illin 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
48.1%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 13 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
49.1%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q2 10:32
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+2
49.0%
Josh McCray run for 2 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & 8
OPP 45
-3
49.1%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Nathaniel Watson for a loss of 3 yards to the MisSt 48Similar
Q2 9:20
4TH & 11
OPP 48
0
46.8%
Hugh Robertson punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 9INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:4454% → 55%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
45.8%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Austin WilliamsSimilar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+4
46.1%
Will Rogers run for 4 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+10
46.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
44.6%
Simeon Price run for 3 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
44.0%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Simeon PriceSimilar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 7
OWN 37
0
45.0%
Will Rogers pass intercepted Kendall Smith return for no gain to the Illin 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 10TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 4:3448% → 63%
Q2 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
48.1%
Reggie Love III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 21Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+41
47.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 41 yds to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+13
51.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 13 yds to the MisSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
51.9%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Tip Reiman for 9 yds to the MisSt 16Similar
Q2 5:20
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+4
52.0%
Josh McCray run for 4 yds to the MisSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+1
52.2%
Josh McCray run for 1 yd to the MisSt 11Similar
Q2 4:20
2ND & 9
OPP 11
+8
52.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 8 yds to the MisSt 3Similar
Q2 3:50
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+1
51.6%
Tommy DeVito run for 1 yd to the MisSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
53.1%
Reggie Love III run for no gain to the MisSt 2Similar
Q2 2:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
62.9%
Tommy DeVito run for 2 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 11FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 2:2140% → 43%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
59.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 5 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+25
59.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 25 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
56.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the Illin 40Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+13
56.2%
Jaden Walley pass complete to Will Rogers for 13 yds to the Illin 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
54.9%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
55.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for no gain to the Illin 27Similar
Q2 0:43
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+7
59.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 7 yds to the Illin 20Similar
Q2 0:09
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+38
56.7%
Massimo Biscardi 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+13
58.3%
Reggie Love III run for 13 yds to the MisSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5456% → 54%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
55.5%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Miles ScottSimilar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
55.4%
Josh McCray run for no gain to the Illin 22Similar
Q3 13:59
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
54.4%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Pat BryantSimilar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
53.5%
Hugh Robertson punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Lideatrick Griffin at the MisSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3045% → 44%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
55.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 6 yds to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 13:06
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+3
53.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 3 yds to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 1
OWN 35
0
54.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 12:10
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
56.5%
George Georgopoulos punt for 44 yds, downed at the Illin 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 15FG
11 plays · 45 yds · 5:0356% → 69%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
56.2%
Reggie Love III run for 7 yds to the Illin 28Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+8
57.6%
Reggie Love III run for 8 yds to the Illin 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
57.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Reggie Love III for 7 yds to the Illin 43Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
62.6%
Josh McCray run for 4 yds to the Illin 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
63.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Michael Marchese for 7 yds to the MisSt 46Similar
Q3 9:36
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+5
64.1%
Josh McCray run for 5 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:53
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
64.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 11 yds to the MisSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
65.7%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Tip ReimanSimilar
Q3 8:20
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-2
65.7%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 32Similar
Q3 7:30
3RD & 12
OPP 32
-2
63.3%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Jaden Crumedy for a loss of 2 yards to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 6:57
4TH & 14
OPP 34
+52
69.3%
Caleb Griffin 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16MISSED FG
8 plays · 0 yds · 2:3133% → 34%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
66.6%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 20Similar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+22
67.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 22 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
65.0%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 7 yds to the MisSt 49Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+12
63.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 12 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
63.8%
Simeon Price run for 3 yds to the Illin 36Similar
Q3 5:00
2ND & 7
OPP 36
-5
64.3%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Illin 41Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+5
66.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Simeon Price for 5 yds to the Illin 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 17TD
8 plays · 41 yds · 4:0634% → 53%
Q3 4:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+8
65.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 8 yds to the Illin 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
63.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
63.2%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Jaden WalleySimilar
Q3 2:30
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+10
66.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the Illin 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
63.7%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 5 yds to the Illin 11Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
65.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to J.J. Jernighan for no gain to the Illin 11Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 5
OPP 11
+3
68.4%
Will Rogers run for 3 yds to the Illin 8Similar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 2
OPP 8
+8
47.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 8 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 18PUNT
17 plays · 32 yds · 6:3054% → 54%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+8
53.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 8 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q4 14:06
2ND & 2
OWN 26
-10
55.8%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 16Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 12
OWN 16
0
53.4%
Tommy DeVito run for no gain to the Illin 16Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 12
OWN 16
+17
51.6%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Griffin Moore for 17 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
55.0%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+15
54.8%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Illin 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-10
59.0%
ILLINOIS Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Illin 38Similar
Q4 11:50
1ST & 20
OWN 38
+3
55.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Michael Marchese for 3 yds to the Illin 41Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 17
OWN 41
-9
55.7%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Cameron Young for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 32Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 26
OWN 32
+10
52.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Illin 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
58.8%
Reggie Love III run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 40Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+12
56.8%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 12 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
61.3%
Tommy DeVito sacked by De'Monte Russell for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:20
2ND & 12
50
0
58.6%
Tommy DeVito pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:15
3RD & 12
50
0
56.9%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 8:09
4TH & 12
50
0
53.5%
Hugh Robertson punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Lideatrick Griffin at the MisSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 19PUNT
9 plays · 51 yds · 3:1648% → 48%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
51.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 7 yds to the MisSt 15Similar
Q4 7:32
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+14
51.3%
Simeon Price run for 14 yds to the MisSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+16
49.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 16 yds to the MisSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
45.4%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 6 yds to the Illin 49Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+10
43.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 10 yds to the Illin 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
44.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Illin 41 TEAM fumbled, recovered by MisStSimilar
Q4 4:44
2ND & 12
OPP 41
0
45.1%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Caleb DuckingSimilar
Q4 4:41
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
47.3%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:34
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
51.6%
George Georgopoulos punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ILLDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:3057% → 54%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
56.5%
Reggie Love III run for 6 yds to the Illin 26Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+7
57.5%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Casey Washington for 7 yds to the Illin 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
57.8%
Tommy DeVito sacked by Jett Johnson for a loss of 10 yards to the Illin 23Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 20
OWN 23
+14
56.0%
Tommy DeVito pass complete to Isaiah Williams for 14 yds to the Illin 37Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
56.2%
Tommy DeVito pass incomplete to Isaiah WilliamsSimilar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 6
OWN 37
+1
54.2%
Hugh Robertson punt for 43 yds , Lideatrick Griffin returns for 1 yd to the MisSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 21FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 1:4351% → 95%
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
49.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 19 yds to the MisSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
44.4%
Simeon Price run for 5 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+10
43.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 10 yds to the Illin 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
41.9%
Simeon Price run for 13 yds to the Illin 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
39.2%
Simeon Price run for 2 yds to the Illin 30Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
38.4%
Will Rogers pass incomplete to Lideatrick GriffinSimilar
Q4 0:12
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+28
42.3%
Simeon Price run for 28 yds to the Illin 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-9
39.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the Illin 11Similar
Q4 0:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+27
5.0%
Massimo Biscardi 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:04
Massimo Biscardi 27 yd FG GOOD
-31.9
TD · Q4 14:54
Will Rogers pass complete to Justin Robinson for 8 yds for a TD (Massimo Biscardi KICK)
-21.1
TD · Q2 2:49
Tommy DeVito run for 2 yds for a TD (Caleb Griffin KICK)
+9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com