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MSST

Mississippi State 39 at Arizona 17

ARIZ
2022 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2022 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadMSST aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreMSST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-3.8ARIZ 20.7%Ben Raybon 22 yd FG GOODAWAY 18 - HOME 10 · Q2 0:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:33 · Ben Raybon 22 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 83Pregame prior−15.4Home team on offense−10.8Score differential−3.8Garbage-time factor−2.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:33: Ben Raybon 22 yd FG GOOD — MSST win probability +3.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:45: Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 5 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK) — MSST win probability +8.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:37: Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK) — ARIZ win probability +10.9 pts (now 28%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:17: Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 4 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK) — MSST win probability +9.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:18: Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK) — MSST win probability +3.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 9MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 7:55ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 48, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.4%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:26ARIZ 4th & 18 at ARIZ 17, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.3%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:40MSST 4th & 9 at ARIZ 21, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.3%
    74% to make
    Punt
    70.6%−2.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:41ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 28, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:55ARIZ 4th & 8 at MSST 26, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.2%
    64% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−3.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:54MSST 4th & 9 at MSST 44, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:52ARIZ 4th & 14 at ARIZ 47, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:33MSST 4th & 4 at ARIZ 4, up 5
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.7%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    66.1%−6.7
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:30MSST 4th & 11 at MSST 34, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.6%−2.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.8%
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:17MSST 4th & 3 at ARIZ 4, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.9%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    81.0%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−7.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:59ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 32, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:06ARIZ 4th & 15 at MSST 36, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%−0.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    10.2%
    42% to make
    Punt
    9.6%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:35MSST 4th & 16 at MSST 17, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:16ARIZ 4th & 3 at MSST 31, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    7.1%−0.8
    54% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−2.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:23ARIZ 4th & 5 at MSST 6, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:57ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:14MSST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    75.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 5:27MSST Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    75.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:45MSST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:37ARIZ Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:17MSST Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:18MSST Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0323% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
22.7%
Michael Wiley run for 5 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q1 14:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
23.0%
Michael Wiley run for no gain to the Ariz 30Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
23.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+30
23.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 30 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
23.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:57
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+34
24.5%
Michael Wiley 34 Yd Run (Tyler Loop Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 2TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:3776% → 75%
Q1 12:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
24.3%
Dillon Johnson run for 11 yds to the MisSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:21
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
24.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 4 yds to the MisSt 45Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+5
24.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 1
50
+16
25.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 16 yds to the Ariz 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
25.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 9 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+14
25.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 14 yds to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
25.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 9Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+9
25.3%
Jo'quavious Marks 9 Yd Run (Massimo Biscardi PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3INT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:2926% → 28%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
25.7%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 14 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
26.1%
DJ Williams run for 3 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+6
26.5%
DJ Williams run for 6 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q1 8:09
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
26.6%
DJ Williams run for no gain to the Ariz 48Similar
Q1 7:55
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+2
26.5%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
50
-10
27.8%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Collin Duncan for a loss of 10 yards to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 20
OWN 40
+15
27.6%
Jayden de Laura pass intercepted ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (Jayden de Laura) to the Ariz 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 4TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 1:1174% → 75%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+3
26.5%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 19Similar
Q1 6:11
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+10
26.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 10 yds to the Ariz 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
25.0%
Caleb Ducking 9 Yd pass from Will Rogers (Massimo Biscardi PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 1:0126% → 26%
Q1 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
26.0%
run for a loss of 8 yards to the Ariz 17Similar
Q1 5:07
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
26.0%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
25.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, Illegal Touch-Pass on MCMILLAN, Tetairoa (Tetairoa McMillan) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:26
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
25.8%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 23 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 6FG
9 plays · 19 yds · 3:4675% → 76%
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
25.5%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 2 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+2
25.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 2 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+14
25.6%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 14 yds to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:26
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
25.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 23Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 11
OPP 23
-10
25.3%
ROGERS, Will pass to the left complete for 6 yards to GRIFFIN, Lideatrick caught at the ARI27 and advanced to the ARI17 (CAGE, Kolbe). PENALTY MSU Holding on JONES, Kameron enforced 10 yards from the ARI23 to the ARI33 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 21
OPP 33
+5
25.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, Offsides (Kyon Barrs) to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 4:26
2ND & 16
OPP 28
+7
25.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 7 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q1 4:26
3RD & 9
OPP 21
0
25.6%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:40
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+39
24.2%
Ben Raybon 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:5924% → 24%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
24.2%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
24.2%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
23.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:41
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+20
23.6%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 64 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 20 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 8INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1976% → 75%
Q2 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
24.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
24.7%
Will Rogers pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2726% → 29%
Q2 14:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
26.3%
Jamarye Joiner run for 2 yds to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 14:22
2ND & 8
OPP 26
0
26.3%
Jonah Coleman run for no gain to the MisSt 26Similar
Q2 14:22
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
25.6%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:55
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
28.8%
Tyler Loop 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:0172% → 71%
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.3%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 3 yds to the MisSt 28Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
28.1%
ROGERS, Will pass to the left incomplete intended for GRIFFIN, Lideatrick thrown to the MSU45. PENALTY ARI Pass Interference on ROLAND-WALLACE, Christian enforced 15 yards to the MSU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
27.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+1
27.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 1 yd to the MisSt 45Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 8
OWN 45
-1
27.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the MisSt 44Similar
Q2 9:54
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
29.2%
George Georgopoulos punt for 45 yds, downed at the Ariz 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
13 plays · 36 yds · 3:0229% → 28%
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
28.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 11
0
28.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 10
OWN 11
+15
28.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 15 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
29.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Dorian Singer for 4 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+10
29.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 10 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
30.3%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+3
29.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 3 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 7
OWN 43
+8
29.1%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Anthony Simpson for 8 yds to the MisSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
30.9%
Jamarye Joiner pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 49
-5
30.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, False Start (Jayden de Laura) to the Ariz 46Similar
Q2 9:54
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+1
29.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 1 yd to the Ariz 47Similar
Q2 9:54
3RD & 14
OWN 47
0
28.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:52
4TH & 14
OWN 47
0
28.4%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 12FG
17 plays · 76 yds · 6:1972% → 79%
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
28.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jaden Walley for 5 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
28.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 4 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q2 6:52
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
28.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
28.0%
Dillon Johnson run for 10 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+18
27.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 18 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
26.8%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q2 6:52
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+5
26.2%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 5 yds to the Ariz 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
26.2%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Jones) to the Ariz 32Similar
Q2 1:54
1ST & 15
OPP 32
+11
24.4%
Dillon Johnson run for 11 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+3
23.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+16
24.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 16 yds to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
23.5%
Dillon Johnson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 4Similar
Q2 1:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
23.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
24.5%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
20.7%
Ben Raybon 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13END OF HALF
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:3323% → 22%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
22.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
23.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 13 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+24
24.3%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 24 yds to the MisSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
26.6%
Jayden de Laura sacked by Randy Charlton for a loss of 15 yards to the MisSt 47Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 25
OPP 47
0
22.4%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:1578% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
22.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 8 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+9
21.6%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 9 yds to the MisSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
21.0%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 14 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
20.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 20 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+7
20.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 7 yds to the Ariz 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 17
+4
20.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 4 yds to the Ariz 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-10
20.4%
ROGERS, Will pass to the left incomplete intended for WILLIAMS, Austin thrown to the ARI0. PENALTY MSU Holding on JOHNSON, Kwatrivous enforced 10 yards from the ARI13 to the ARI23 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 23
+18
20.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Lideatrick Griffin for 18 yds to the Ariz 5Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
12.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 5 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15INT
6 plays · 16 yds · 2:0415% → 16%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
15.3%
DJ Williams run for no gain to the Ariz 25Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-3
15.1%
DJ Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 22Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+16
14.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 16 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
16.4%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 7
OWN 41
0
16.7%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:41
3RD & 7
OWN 41
0
15.6%
Jayden de Laura pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q3 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
11.3%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jamire Calvin for 7 yds Jamire Calvin fumbled, recovered by Ariz Jaxen TurnerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17TD
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:4817% → 28%
Q3 8:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
17.3%
DJ Williams run for 2 yds to the MisSt 2Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 3:0778% → 77%
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
21.9%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 10 yds to the MisSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
21.3%
Simeon Price run for no gain to the MisSt 35Similar
Q3 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
21.7%
Will Rogers pass complete to Dillon Johnson for 6 yds to the MisSt 41Similar
Q3 7:37
3RD & 4
OWN 41
-7
20.6%
Will Rogers sacked by Jalen Harris and Paris Shand for a loss of 7 yards to the MisSt 34Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
22.9%
Archer Trafford punt for 60 yds, downed at the Ariz 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19INT
10 plays · 64 yds · 3:2421% → 27%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
21.2%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+9
21.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 9 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+15
20.7%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jalen Green) to the Ariz 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
22.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Rayshon Luke for 1 yd to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+10
22.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 10 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
23.8%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Alex Lines for 8 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+4
24.8%
Michael Wiley run for 4 yds to the MisSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
25.2%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 13 yds to the MisSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
26.6%
Jonah Coleman run for 4 yds to the MisSt 30Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 6
OPP 30
0
26.5%
Jayden de Laura pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 20TD
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:4984% → 92%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
16.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 6 yds to the Ariz 5Similar
Q3 1:06
2ND & 4
OPP 5
-15
16.4%
ROGERS, Will pass to the left complete for 5 yards to WILLIAMS, Austin caught at the ARI1 and advanced to the ARI0, TOUCHDOWN MSU, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on HARVEY, Rufus enforced 15 yards to the ARI20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 19
OPP 20
+9
16.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 9 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+7
17.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 7 yds to the Ariz 4Similar
Q4 14:17
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+4
8.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 4 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:1812% → 11%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
11.5%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
11.7%
Michael Wiley run for 3 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
11.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:59
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+9
11.4%
Kyle Ostendorp punt for 57 yds , Zavion Thomas returns for 9 yds to the MisSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 22FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:1994% → 94%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
6.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
6.2%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+11
6.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Jo'quavious Marks for 11 yds Jo'quavious Marks fumbled, recovered by Ariz Hunter Echols MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Defensive Holding (Kameron Jones) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:3414% → 11%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
13.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
13.7%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 10
OPP 31
0
12.9%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 10
OPP 31
-5
12.4%
ARIZONA Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the MisSt 36Similar
Q4 12:06
4TH & 15
OPP 36
+13
10.6%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Michael Wiley for 13 yds to the MisSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:3194% → 95%
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
5.7%
Dillon Johnson run for 2 yds to the MisSt 25Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
5.7%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:06
3RD & 8
OWN 25
-8
5.9%
Will Rogers sacked by Paris Shand for a loss of 8 yards to the MisSt 17Similar
Q4 10:35
4TH & 16
OWN 17
0
5.2%
George Georgopoulos punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Dorian Singer at the Ariz 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 27 yds · 1:198% → 8%
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
8.4%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the MisSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
9.0%
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Tanner McLachlan for 5 yds to the MisSt 33Similar
Q4 10:35
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+2
10.3%
Jonah Coleman run for 2 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
Q4 10:35
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
9.7%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:16
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
7.8%
Jayden de Laura pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 26TD
13 plays · 69 yds · 5:5896% → 100%
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
4.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds to the MisSt 37Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
4.4%
Will Rogers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:16
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+11
4.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 11 yds to the MisSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+11
4.2%
Jo'quavious Marks run for 11 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
4.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rufus Harvey for 6 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+6
4.1%
Will Rogers run for 6 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+3
4.1%
Dillon Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & 7
OPP 26
+8
4.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 8 yds to the Ariz 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+16
4.1%
Will Rogers pass complete to Rara Thomas for 16 yds to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
4.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference ( Yards) to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
4.1%
Jo'quavious Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 2Similar
Q4 9:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
4.1%
PENALTY ARI Personal Foul on ROLAND-WALLACE, Christian MSU Personal Foul on JOHNSON, Kwatrivous , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
0.5%
Will Rogers pass complete to Caleb Ducking for 2 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27DOWNS
10 plays · 69 yds · 1:551% → 1%
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
0.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Dorian Singer for 21 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
0.9%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+27
0.9%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Tetairoa McMillan for 27 yds to the MisSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
1.1%
Jonah Coleman run for 3 yds to the MisSt 24Similar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+3
1.1%
MISSISSIPPI ST Penalty, Roughing the Passer on PAGE, DeShawn enforced half the distance from the goal (DeShawn Page) to the MisSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
1.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:18
2ND & 10
OPP 11
0
1.1%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 10
OPP 11
+5
0.8%
Noah Fifita pass complete to Jonah Coleman for 5 yds to the MisSt 6Similar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 5
OPP 6
0
0.8%
Noah Fifita pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSSTDrive 28END OF GAME
3 plays · 25 yds · 1:23100% → 100%
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+16
0.4%
Will Rogers pass complete to Antonio Harmon for 16 yds to the MisSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
0.4%
Sawyer Robertson pass complete to Jaden Walley for 7 yds to the MisSt 29Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+2
0.3%
Simeon Price run for 2 yds to the MisSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 7:37
Jayden de Laura pass complete to Jacob Cowing for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Loop KICK)
+10.9
TD · Q4 14:17
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 4 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)
-9
TD · Q3 10:45
Will Rogers pass complete to Austin Williams for 5 yds for a TD, (Ben Raybon KICK)
-8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com