Minnesota

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1443rd
  Defense+0.0291st
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense42.1%40th
  Defense37.3%91st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.159th
  Defense+1.1884th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1041st
  Defense+0.0284th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.2251st
  Defense+0.0392nd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.9%35th
  Defense46.0%65th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense30.5%44th
  Defense21.1%99th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1457th
  Defense2.7682nd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense13.7%78th
  Defense18.0%58th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.3%76th
  Defense16.7%52nd

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Minnesota allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   OSU
2. W
   M-OH
3. W
   COLO
4. L
   BGSU
5. W
   PUR
6. W
   NEB
7. W
   MD
8. W
   NU
9. L
   ILL
10. L
    IOWA
11. W
    IU
12. W
    WIS
13. W
    WVU

Bars above the line: better than expected for Minnesota.

Players, 2021

1. Tanner MorganQB284 plays · +0.247 pts/play · 72nd of 219 QBs
   1.31WAR0.77 to 1.79
2. Ky ThomasRB144 plays · +0.186 pts/play · 67th of 387 RBs
   0.50WAR0.36 to 0.62
3. Trey PottsRB105 plays · +0.196 pts/play · 103rd of 387 RBs
   0.39WAR0.29 to 0.49
4. Bucky IrvingRB106 plays · +0.184 pts/play · 112th of 387 RBs
   0.37WAR0.29 to 0.45
5. Chris Autman-BellWR37 plays · +0.228 pts/play · 115th of 474 WRs
   0.16WAR0.12 to 0.20
6. Mohamed IbrahimRB30 plays · +0.257 pts/play · 254th of 387 RBs
   0.14WAR0.11 to 0.17
7. Michael Brown-StephensWR28 plays · +0.177 pts/play · 255th of 474 WRs
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.12
8. Daniel JacksonWR29 plays · +0.160 pts/play · 264th of 474 WRs
   0.09WAR0.06 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Minnesota's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  65365343rd of 130Roster talent: 653, 43rd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  20020040th of 130Recruiting: 200, 40th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  81%81%55th of 128Returning production: 81%, 55th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +14.4+14.418th of 130SP+ rating: +14.4, 18th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Minnesota's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 10 clear-cut ones account for 0.22 of the 0.30 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs NEBQ4 4:53 4th & 1 at MINN 43, up 5Punted; the numbers favored going for it−4.3 pts
2. at PURQ3 5:14 4th & 1 at MINN 46, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−3.7 pts
3. at IOWAQ4 2:18 4th & 17 at MINN 3, down 2Went for it; the numbers favored punting−2.9 pts
4. at IOWAQ2 0:00 4th & 1 at IOWA 14, tiedKicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−2.5 pts
5. at PURQ4 8:11 4th & 4 at PUR 47, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
6. vs WISQ4 6:08 4th & 2 at WIS 18, up 7Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
7. at IUQ3 8:47 4th & 3 at IU 40, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
8. at IOWAQ3 6:14 4th & 2 at IOWA 11, down 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

28th of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Minnesota's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   OSU
2. W

   M-OH
3. W

   COLO
4. L

   BGSU
5. W

   PUR
6. W

   NEB
7. W

   MD
8. W

   NU
9. L

   ILL
10. L

    IOWA
11. W

    IU
12. W

    WIS
13. W

    WVU

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Minnesota's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.93
• Possession & field position+0.04
• Clock−0.02
• Timeouts+0.04
• Other+0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.59

Game by game

• OSUL 31-45 vs OSU18% → 2%Before kickoff −32 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −28, Clock −1
• M-OHW 31-26 vs M-OH90% → 93%Before kickoff +40 · On the field +3: Scoreboard +16
• COLOW 30-0 at COLO46% → 100%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +54: Scoreboard +54, Timeouts +1
• BGSUL 10-14 vs BGSU97% → 17%Before kickoff +47 · On the field −81: Scoreboard −30, Clock −2
• PURW 20-13 at PUR44% → 86%Before kickoff −6 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +45, Clock +2
• NEBW 30-23 vs NEB40% → 97%Before kickoff −10 · On the field +57: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts +2
• MDW 34-16 vs MD61% → 100%Before kickoff +11 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +41, Timeouts −2
• NUW 41-14 at NU76% → 100%Before kickoff +26 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +29
• ILLL 6-14 vs ILL84% → 3%Before kickoff +34 · On the field −81: Scoreboard −59, Clock −4
• IOWAL 22-27 at IOWA40% → 13%Before kickoff −10 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −25, Timeouts −1
• IUW 35-14 at IU71% → 100%Before kickoff +21 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +35, Clock +2
• WISW 23-13 vs WIS31% → 97%Before kickoff −19 · On the field +66: Scoreboard +43, Timeouts +2
• WVUW 18-6 vs WVU66% → 98%Before kickoff +16 · On the field +32: Scoreboard +31, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Minnesota's side.

Closest call

GASO 32-35 MINN (2019) - Minnesota dropped to a 1.5% win probability before pulling it out.