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BGSU

Bowling Green 14 at Minnesota 10

MINN
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Huntington Bank Stadium
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreBGSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:28 · Mark Crawford punt for 33 yds, downed at the BwGrn 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 50Pregame prior+40.3Home team on offense+1.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:31: Matt McDonald run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +25.4 pts (now 46%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:35: Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 11 yds to the Minn 8 — BGSU win probability +14.8 pts (now 65%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 7:35: Treyson Potts run for 4 yds to the Minn 12 — MINN win probability +12.9 pts (now 48%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. PUNT · Q4 3:33: Mark Crawford punt for 46 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for 7 yds to the BwGrn 27 — BGSU win probability +14.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:13: Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 37 — BGSU win probability +13.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 7 of 10BGSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9
  1. Q1 13:36BGSU 4th & 4 at BGSU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:17MINN 4th & 16 at BGSU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:23MINN 4th & 5 at BGSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.8%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:55BGSU 4th & 21 at BGSU 14, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−0.2
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:45BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.5%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:45MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  7. Q1 3:45MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    94.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    94.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 12:28MINN 4th & 14 at BGSU 37, up 3
    Close callPunted · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    92.4%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:58BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.6%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:18MINN 4th & 1 at MINN 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    90.6%−0.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:07MINN 4th & 23 at MINN 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%−1.9
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  12. Q2 1:07BGSU 4th & 4 at BGSU 41, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 7:33BGSU 4th & 8 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:31MINN 4th & 7 at BGSU 34, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.1%−0.3
    47% to make
    Punt
    82.4%−1.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:31BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 44, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    17.5%−1.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 13:28MINN 4th & 13 at MINN 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%−3.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:33MINN 4th & 8 at MINN 34, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%−1.0
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:19BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%−4.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:23BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 38, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.6%−0.8
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 1 of 1BGSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 6:19BGSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 11:00MINN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:31BGSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:243% → 3%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.4%
Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
97.4%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
97.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 4 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q1 13:36
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
97.2%
Matt Naranjo punt for 36 yds, downed at the Minn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 3:1997% → 97%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
97.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 9 yds to the Minn 42Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+4
97.3%
Treyson Potts run for 4 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
97.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 21 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
97.3%
Treyson Potts run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+1
97.3%
Treyson Potts run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
97.3%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Brock Horne for 0 yards to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+4
97.3%
Treyson Potts run for 4 yds to the Minn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 16
OPP 39
0
96.7%
Mark Crawford punt for 35 yds, downed at the BwGrn 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3INT
5 plays · 18 yds · 2:293% → 4%
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
96.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Taron Keith for 7 yds to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q1 10:17
2ND & 3
OWN 11
+2
96.7%
Jamal Johnson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q1 10:17
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+2
96.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 2 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
96.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 7 yds to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 3
OWN 22
0
96.2%
Matt McDonald pass intercepted return for no gain to the BwGrn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4FG
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2596% → 96%
Q1 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
96.4%
Treyson Potts run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q1 7:48
2ND & 5
OPP 18
0
96.4%
Mar'Keise Irving run for no gain to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q1 7:48
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
96.4%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
96.2%
Matthew Trickett 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -11 yds · 1:284% → 4%
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.2%
Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q1 6:23
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
96.1%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
96.2%
Matt McDonald sacked by Thomas Rush for 0 yards to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q1 4:55
4TH & 21
OWN 14
0
96.0%
Matt Naranjo punt for 47 yds , Brock Annexstad returns for no gain to the Minn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6FUMBLE
1 play · 18 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+18
95.8%
Tanner Morgan run for 18 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:594% → 4%
Q1 4:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
95.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jaison Patterson for 3 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q1 4:44
2ND & 7
OWN 46
0
95.7%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:44
3RD & 7
OWN 46
0
95.7%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 7
OWN 46
0
95.7%
Matt Naranjo punt for 26 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8PUNT
20 plays · 30 yds · 6:1796% → 94%
Q1 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+5
95.7%
Treyson Potts run for 5 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
95.7%
Treyson Potts run for no gain to the Minn 38Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
95.6%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 6 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
95.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+5
95.5%
Tanner Morgan run for 5 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
95.8%
Treyson Potts run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+5
95.7%
Treyson Potts run for 5 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
95.7%
Treyson Potts run for no gain to the Minn 38Similar
Q1 3:45
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+6
95.6%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 6 yds to the Minn 44Similar
Q1 3:45
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+5
95.5%
Tanner Morgan run for 5 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
95.8%
Treyson Potts run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 4
OWN 44
0
95.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
95.0%
Treyson Potts run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
94.7%
Treyson Potts run for 5 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+2
95.0%
Treyson Potts run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
94.7%
Treyson Potts run for 5 yds to the Minn 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+11
94.9%
Treyson Potts run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
95.0%
Treyson Potts run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 29
-1
95.0%
Mar'Keise Irving run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q2 12:28
4TH & 14
OPP 37
0
93.7%
Mark Crawford punt for 33 yds, downed at the BwGrn 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:306% → 6%
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
94.1%
Jhaylin Embry run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 5Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 9
OWN 5
0
94.1%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 9
OWN 5
+15
94.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 15 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
94.0%
Jhaylin Embry run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
94.0%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:28
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
94.2%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:58
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
93.6%
Matt Naranjo punt for 77 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:4093% → 92%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
93.2%
Treyson Potts run for 4 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
93.2%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:22
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+5
92.4%
Tanner Morgan run for 5 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q2 8:18
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-5
92.3%
Treyson Potts run for a loss of 5 yards to the Minn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 24 yds · 1:599% → 13%
Q2 8:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
91.4%
Jhaylin Embry run for 3 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q2 8:18
2ND & 7
OPP 21
+16
91.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 16 yds to the Minn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
91.4%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 4 yds to the Minn 1Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
87.1%
Matt McDonald run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12PUNT
14 plays · -3 yds · 4:1289% → 85%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
88.5%
MORGAN, Tanner pass to the right complete for 6 yards to JACKSON, Daniel caught at the UMN29 and advanced to the UMN31 (ANDERS, Darren). PENALTY UMN Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on FAALELE, Daniel enforced 5 yards from the UMN25 to the UMN20 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
88.5%
Treyson Potts run for 1 yd to the Minn 21Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
88.4%
Treyson Potts run for 4 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
88.0%
Tanner Morgan run for 10 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
88.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
88.6%
Tanner Morgan run for no gain to the Minn 35Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+4
88.4%
Treyson Potts run for 4 yds to the Minn 25Similar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+10
88.0%
Tanner Morgan run for 10 yds to the Minn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
88.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
88.6%
Tanner Morgan run for no gain to the Minn 35Similar
Q2 2:13
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
84.5%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Karl Brooks for 0 yards to the Minn 22Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 23
OWN 22
+7
84.6%
Mark Crawford punt for 33 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for 7 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0015% → 16%
Q2 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
84.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 6 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q2 2:07
2ND & 4
OWN 41
0
84.3%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:07
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
84.6%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:07
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
84.3%
Matt Naranjo punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
84.2%
Treyson Potts run for no gain to the Minn 19Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+2
84.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Treyson Potts for 2 yds to the Minn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15TD
8 plays · 57 yds · 3:5486% → 89%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
85.5%
MORGAN, Tanner pass up the middle complete for 10 yards to JACKSON, Daniel caught at the UMN50 and advanced to the BGS47 (DABNEY, Sy). PENALTY UMN Holding on SCHLUETER, Sam enforced 10 yards from the UMN43 to the UMN33 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 20
OWN 33
+25
84.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 25 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
86.1%
Treyson Potts run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OPP 36
+3
86.1%
Treyson Potts run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+6
86.0%
Treyson Potts run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
86.8%
Treyson Potts run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+2
86.8%
Treyson Potts run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+19
89.2%
Cole Kramer run for 19 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16PUNT
14 plays · 25 yds · 3:2713% → 15%
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
87.5%
MCDONALD, Matt sacked for a loss of 5 yards at the BGS20 (CARTER, Trill). PENALTY UMN Personal Foul on CARTER, Trill enforced 15 yards from the BGS25 to the BGS40 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-5
86.5%
MCDONALD, Matt pass to the right complete for 12 yards to EMBRY, Jhaylin caught at the UMN48 and advanced to the UMN48 (HARRIS, Justus), out of bounds. PENALTY BGS Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on MURPHY, Jordan enforced 5 yards from the BGS40 to the BGS35 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 15
OWN 35
+12
87.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 12 yds to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+4
86.0%
Jaison Patterson run for 4 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
85.8%
Matt McDonald sacked by Boye Mafe for 0 yards to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 19
OWN 42
+6
87.2%
MCDONALD, Matt pass to the right incomplete intended for SMITH, Jaylen thrown to the BGS48. PENALTY UMN Pass Interference on DURR, Coney enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the BGS48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
86.0%
Matt McDonald run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 8
50
0
85.8%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 8
50
0
86.4%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 19
OWN 42
+6
87.2%
MCDONALD, Matt pass to the right incomplete intended for SMITH, Jaylen thrown to the BGS48. PENALTY UMN Pass Interference on DURR, Coney enforced at the spot of the foul for 6 yards to the BGS48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
86.0%
Matt McDonald run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 8
50
0
85.8%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 8
50
0
86.4%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:33
4TH & 8
50
0
85.5%
Matt Naranjo punt for 41 yds, downed at the Minn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17MISSED FG
5 plays · 57 yds · 3:0286% → 85%
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+54
86.1%
Treyson Potts run for 54 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
88.1%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q3 7:33
2ND & 7
OPP 34
+1
88.5%
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q3 7:33
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-1
87.8%
Treyson Potts run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q3 4:31
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+52
84.6%
Matthew Trickett 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 4:0017% → 46%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
82.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Austin Osborne for 5 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+3
81.6%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 3 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+1
81.6%
Matt McDonald run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q3 4:31
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+18
82.6%
Matt McDonald run for 18 yds to the Minn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
80.8%
Jaedyn McKinstry pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+33
80.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Taron Keith for 33 yds to the Minn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
79.6%
Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the Minn 3Similar
Q3 0:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
54.3%
Matt McDonald run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3263% → 57%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
62.8%
Treyson Potts run for 4 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+2
63.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for 2 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 29
0
62.0%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Davon Ferguson for 0 yards to the Minn 20Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 13
OWN 20
+56
56.8%
Mark Crawford punt for 46 yds, downed at the MINNESOTA 34 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Darren Anders) to the BwGrn 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20FUMBLE
17 plays · 68 yds · 5:5344% → 65%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
55.8%
Matt McDonald sacked by Boye Mafe for 0 yards to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 16
OWN 18
+18
56.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 18 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
54.2%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Jaison Patterson for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+5
55.7%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 5 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-2
53.7%
Taron Keith run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 8
OWN 38
+15
57.9%
NARANJO, Matt punt 62 yards to the UMN0, Touchback. PENALTY UMN Personal Foul on HOWARD, Phillip enforced 15 yards from the BGS38 to the UMN47 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
51.7%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+15
51.9%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Christian Sims for 15 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
50.2%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
50.3%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Cavon Croom for 5 yds to the Minn 27Similar
Q4 13:28
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
51.6%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:28
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+5
55.4%
NEEDHAM, Nate field goal attempt from 45 yards NO GOOD (wide right) [kick was spotted at UMN35]. PENALTY Before the snap, UMN Illegal Formation on MARTIN, Val enforced 5 yards from the UMN27 to the UMN22 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
49.6%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
50.3%
Jhaylin Embry run for 3 yds to the Minn 19Similar
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
49.6%
Matt McDonald pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:28
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
50.3%
Jhaylin Embry run for 3 yds to the Minn 19Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+11
35.5%
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 11 yds to the Minn 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 21PUNT
9 plays · 26 yds · 4:0248% → 34%
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
48.3%
Treyson Potts run for 4 yds to the Minn 12Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+9
48.7%
Tanner Morgan run for 9 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
49.3%
Treyson Potts run for 5 yds to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
50.1%
Treyson Potts run for 3 yds to the Minn 29Similar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+3
48.7%
Cole Kramer run for 3 yds to the Minn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
50.2%
Treyson Potts run for 2 yds to the Minn 34Similar
Q4 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
50.1%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
48.5%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:33
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+7
33.8%
Mark Crawford punt for 46 yds , Jhaylin Embry returns for 7 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:1474% → 79%
Q4 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
26.0%
Matt McDonald sacked by Trill Carter for 0 yards to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q4 2:46
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+1
21.0%
Jhaylin Embry run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 13
OWN 24
+7
21.6%
Jaison Patterson run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 6
OWN 31
-5
21.8%
NARANJO, Matt punt 42 yards to the UMN27 out of bounds. PENALTY Before the snap, BGS Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the BGS31 to the BGS26. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
21.2%
Matt Naranjo punt for 39 yds , returns for no gain to the Minn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 23INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
29.5%
Tanner Morgan pass intercepted return for no gain to the BwGrn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:5084% → 94%
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
16.4%
Jaison Patterson run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
10.4%
Jaison Patterson run for no gain to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+1
6.7%
Jaison Patterson run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q4 0:23
4TH & 7
OWN 38
+27
6.4%
Matt Naranjo punt for 47 yds , Treyson Potts returns for 27 yds to the Minn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 25INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
16.9%
Tanner Morgan pass intercepted return for no gain to the BwGrn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:31
Matt McDonald run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK)
-25.4
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-16.9
KEY PLAY · Q4 7:35
Matt McDonald pass complete to Tyrone Broden for 11 yds to the Minn 8
-14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com