Minnesota

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1342nd
  Defense+0.1163rd
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.6%54th
  Defense41.5%56th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1431st
  Defense+1.1857th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1465th
  Defense+0.1337th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1632nd
  Defense+0.1376th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.5%49th
  Defense45.4%62nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense34.2%54th
  Defense33.7%42nd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense3.1073rd
  Defense2.7463rd
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense17.5%71st
  Defense22.9%83rd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.6%18th
  Defense2.2%63rd

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Minnesota allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   EIU
2. W
   MTSU
3. L
   TCU
4. W
   SJSU
5. W
   MICH
6. W
   NU
7. W
   PUR
8. L
   ILL
9. W
   IOWA
10. L
    OSU
11. W
    NEB
12. L
    WIS
13. L
    MIZ

Bars above the line: better than expected for Minnesota.

Players, 2014

1. Mitch LeidnerQB285 plays · +0.226 pts/play · 89th of 199 QBs
   1.20WAR0.70 to 1.73
2. David CobbRB273 plays · +0.102 pts/play · 16th of 350 RBs
   0.52WAR0.31 to 0.73
3. Ryan SantosoP14 plays · +0.455 pts/play · 29th of 94 punters
   0.12WAR0.08 to 0.16
4. Peter MortellP51 plays · +0.110 pts/play · 41st of 94 punters
   0.11WAR0.01 to 0.19
5. KJ MayeWR48 plays · +0.073 pts/play · 292nd of 469 WRs
   0.07WAR0.02 to 0.11
6. Drew WolitarskyWR14 plays · +0.149 pts/play · 372nd of 469 WRs
   0.04WAR0.02 to 0.06
7. Miles ThomasFB7 plays · +0.064 pts/play · 300th of 350 RBs
   0.01WAR0.00 to 0.02
8. Chris StrevelerWR19 plays · +0.021 pts/play · 434th of 469 WRs
   0.01WAR−0.02 to 0.03

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Minnesota's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Minnesota's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 4 clear-cut ones account for 0.08 of the 0.14 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs PURQ3 7:10 4th & 3 at PUR 3, down 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it2.4 pts
2. vs NUQ4 12:14 4th & 3 at NU 8, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it2.3 pts
3. at ILLQ4 5:13 4th & 4 at MINN 31, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it2.3 pts
4. at WISQ3 4:15 4th & 2 at MINN 20, down 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it1.3 pts
5. at MICHQ4 12:50 4th & 2 at MICH 8, up 20Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.9 pts
6. vs MIZQ2 9:35 4th & 2 at MINN 10, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.8 pts
7. vs IOWAQ1 0:06 4th & 1 at IOWA 46, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.7 pts
8. vs MIZQ1 0:28 4th & 4 at MIZ 42, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)0.6 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

14th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Minnesota's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   EIU
2. W

   MTSU
3. L

   TCU
4. W

   SJSU
5. W

   MICH
6. W

   NU
7. W

   PUR
8. L

   ILL
9. W

   IOWA
10. L

    OSU
11. W

    NEB
12. L

    WIS
13. L

    MIZ

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Minnesota's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+1.47
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock+0.03
• Timeouts−0.01
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.09

Game by game

• EIUW 42-20 vs EIU75% → 100%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +27
• MTSUW 35-24 vs MTSU82% → 97%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +15: Scoreboard +21, Possession & field position +1
• TCUL 7-30 at TCU24% → 0%Before kickoff −26 · On the field −24: Scoreboard −27, Timeouts −1
• SJSUW 24-7 vs SJSU70% → 99%Before kickoff +20 · On the field +29: Scoreboard +32, Timeouts −1
• MICHW 30-14 at MICH22% → 99%Before kickoff −28 · On the field +77: Scoreboard +63, Clock +3
• NUW 24-17 vs NU58% → 91%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +28, Clock +1
• PURW 39-38 vs PUR82% → 80%Before kickoff +32 · On the field −2: Scoreboard +10, Timeouts +2
• ILLL 24-28 at ILL70% → 14%Before kickoff +20 · On the field −55: Scoreboard −25, Clock −1
• IOWAW 51-14 vs IOWA50% → 100%Before kickoff 0 · On the field +50: Scoreboard +48, Clock −1
• OSUL 24-31 vs OSU13% → 4%Before kickoff −37 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −24, Clock −2
• NEBW 28-24 at NEB24% → 95%Before kickoff −26 · On the field +71: Scoreboard +57, Clock +3
• WISL 24-34 at WIS19% → 3%Before kickoff −31 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −22, Timeouts −1
• MIZL 17-33 vs MIZ34% → 2%Before kickoff −16 · On the field −33: Scoreboard −43, Clock −2

Points of win probability, from Minnesota's side.

Closest call

GASO 32-35 MINN (2019) - Minnesota dropped to a 1.5% win probability before pulling it out.