RUTG
Rutgers 28 at Minnesota 31
MINN2025 · Week 5 · Sep 27, 2025 · Huntington Bank Stadium
Speed4x
Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadRUTG aheadconfidence bandkey play
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RUTG · Drive 1MISSED FG · 11 plays · 71 yds
Q1 15:00
Brady Denaburg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
31.9%
0.0
Q1 14:59
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 18 yds to the RUTG 43 for a 1ST down
29.3%
-2.6
Q1 14:27
Antwan Raymond run for 1 yd to the RUTG 44
27.8%
-1.5
Q1 13:45
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 29 yds to the MINN 27 for a 1ST down
27.4%
-0.4
Q1 13:07
Antwan Raymond run for 7 yds to the MINN 20
26.5%
-0.9
Q1 12:43
Antwan Raymond run for 4 yds to the MINN 16 for a 1ST down
26.5%
0.0
Q1 12:03
Antwan Raymond run for 13 yds to the MINN 3 for a 1ST down
26.5%
0.0
Q1 11:43
Antwan Raymond run for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 4
26.5%
0.0
Q1 11:00
Samuel Brown V run for a loss of 3 yards to the MINN 7
26.5%
0.0
Q1 10:22
Antwan Raymond run for 3 yds to the MINN 4
26.5%
0.0
Q1 9:36
Jai Patel 22 yd FG MISSED
27.1%
+0.6
MINN · Drive 2PUNT · 4 plays · 9 yds
Q1 9:31
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Cam Davis for 6 yds to the MINN 18
32.4%
+5.3
Q1 8:53
Fame Ijeboi run for a loss of 2 yards to the MINN 16
32.0%
-0.4
Q1 8:17
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Logan Loya for 5 yds to the MINN 21
32.1%
0.0
Q1 7:35
Tom Weston punt for 41 yds
31.8%
-0.3
RUTG · Drive 3TD · 8 plays · 62 yds
Q1 7:28
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 7 yds to the RUTG 45
28.0%
-3.8
Q1 6:46
Samuel Brown V run for 1 yd to the RUTG 46
27.3%
-0.7
Q1 6:23
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher Jr. for 5 yds to the MINN 49 for a 1ST down
28.4%
+1.0
Q1 5:38
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 21 yds to the MINN 28 for a 1ST down
28.1%
-0.2
Q1 5:04
Samuel Brown V run for 9 yds to the MINN 19
27.7%
-0.4
Q1 4:20
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 12 yds to the MINN 7 for a 1ST down
27.7%
0.0
Q1 3:37
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Colin Weber for 3 yds Athan Kaliakmanis fumbled, recovered by RUTG
27.7%
0.0
Q1 3:16
DT Sheffield 4 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)
17.4%
-10.3
MINN · Drive 4PUNT · 7 plays · 17 yds
Q1 3:16
Jack Scullion kickoff for 49 yds , Derik LeCaptain return for no gain to the MINN 17 , Derik LeCaptain return for 5 yds to the MINN 17
18.4%
+0.9
Q1 3:09
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Cam Davis
19.7%
+1.3
Q1 3:03
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Cam Davis for 11 yds to the MINN 28 for a 1ST down
19.7%
0.0
Q1 2:23
Cam Davis run for 8 yds to the MINN 36
19.7%
0.0
Q1 1:43
Fame Ijeboi run for 1 yd to the MINN 37
19.7%
0.0
Q1 1:10
Fame Ijeboi run for a loss of 3 yards to the MINN 34
19.7%
0.0
Q1 0:27
Tom Weston punt for 34 yds
19.7%
0.0
RUTG · Drive 5TD · 12 plays · 68 yds
Q1 0:20
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Deven Eastern and Jaxon Howard for a loss of 6 yards to the RUTG 26
17.9%
-1.8
Q2 14:57
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 16 yds to the RUTG 42 for a 1ST down
17.8%
-0.1
Q2 14:12
Antwan Raymond run for 13 yds to the MINN 45 Minnesota Penalty, Defensive holding (Deven Eastern) to the MINN 35
18.2%
+0.4
Q2 13:50
Antwan Raymond run for 2 yds to the MINN 33
18.1%
-0.1
Q2 13:09
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to DT Sheffield
18.1%
0.0
Q2 13:06
Antwan Raymond run for 8 yds to the MINN 25 for a 1ST down
18.1%
0.0
Q2 12:25
Antwan Raymond run for 1 yd to the MINN 24
18.1%
0.0
Q2 12:03
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 7 yds to the MINN 17
18.0%
-0.2
Q2 11:44
Antwan Raymond run for 3 yds to the MINN 14 for a 1ST down
18.9%
+1.0
Q2 11:01
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to KJ Duff
19.0%
+0.1
Q2 10:55
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Ian Strong, broken up by John Nestor
20.6%
+1.6
Q2 10:43
KJ Duff 14 Yd pass from Athan Kaliakmanis (Jai Patel Kick)
11.8%
-8.9
MINN · Drive 6TD · 5 plays · 81 yds
Q2 10:43
Jack Scullion kickoff for 65 yds , Koi Perich return for 19 yds to the MINN 19
12.4%
+0.7
Q2 10:34
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 78 yds to the RUTG 3 for a 1ST down
13.6%
+1.1
Q2 9:45
Fame Ijeboi run for no gain to the RUTG 3
14.9%
+1.3
Q2 9:03
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jameson Geers for a 1ST down Rutgers Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Kaj Sanders) to the RUTG 2 for a 1ST down
14.9%
0.0
Q2 8:52
Fame Ijeboi run for 2 yds for a TD (Brady Denaburg KICK)
26.3%
+11.4
RUTG · Drive 7INT · 4 plays · 4 yds
Q2 8:52
Brady Denaburg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
24.0%
-2.3
Q2 8:50
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to DT Sheffield
21.1%
-2.9
Q2 8:42
Antwan Raymond run for 4 yds to the RUTG 29
21.1%
0.0
Q2 8:19
Kerry Brown return for no gain to the RUTG 8
21.1%
0.0
MINN · Drive 8TD · 1 play · 8 yds
Q2 7:58
Le'Meke Brockington 8 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)
42.1%
+21.0
RUTG · Drive 9PUNT · 6 plays · 3 yds
Q2 7:58
Brady Denaburg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
40.0%
-2.2
Q2 7:56
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to KJ Duff, broken up by John Nestor for a 1ST down Minnesota Penalty, Defensive pass interference (John Nestor) to the RUTG 35 for a 1ST down
33.4%
-6.5
Q2 7:51
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Ian Strong
33.4%
0.0
Q2 7:47
Antwan Raymond run for a loss of 1 yard to the RUTG 34
33.4%
0.0
Q2 7:23
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Koi Perich for a loss of 6 yards to the RUTG 28
33.4%
0.0
Q2 6:35
Jakob Anderson punt for 45 yds
33.4%
0.0
MINN · Drive 10PUNT · 4 plays · 0 yds
Q2 6:30
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Drew Biber
40.0%
+6.5
Q2 6:22
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Pierce Walsh
40.0%
0.0
Q2 6:18
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jalen Smith
40.0%
0.0
Q2 6:10
Tom Weston punt for 43 yds , DT Sheffield returns for 5 yds to the RUTG 32 Rutgers Penalty, illegal block (Timmy Ward) to the RUTG 25
39.6%
-0.3
RUTG · Drive 11PUNT · 4 plays · -2 yds
Q2 6:00
Samuel Brown V run for 3 yds to the RUTG 28
33.4%
-6.2
Q2 5:19
Samuel Brown V run for 2 yds to the RUTG 30
33.5%
+0.1
Q2 4:54
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Maverick Baranowski for a loss of 7 yards to the RUTG 23
33.6%
+0.1
Q2 4:21
Jakob Anderson punt for 48 yds , Koi Perich returns for 13 yds to the MINN 42
33.6%
0.0
MINN · Drive 12DOWNS · 7 plays · 21 yds
Q2 4:10
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Logan Loya for 5 yds to the MINN 47
41.0%
+7.4
Q2 3:32
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon Tracy
41.0%
0.0
Q2 3:26
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Logan Loya for 7 yds to the RUTG 46 for a 1ST down
40.8%
-0.2
Q2 2:44
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 2 yds to the RUTG 44
41.9%
+1.1
Q2 2:05
Fame Ijeboi run for 7 yds to the RUTG 37
41.8%
-0.1
Q2 1:56
Cam Davis run for no gain to the RUTG 37
41.9%
+0.1
Q2 1:08
Cam Davis run for no gain to the RUTG 37
41.5%
-0.4
RUTG · Drive 13TD · 7 plays · 63 yds
Q2 1:04
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 8 yds to the RUTG 45
33.5%
-8.1
Q2 0:57
Antwan Raymond run for 17 yds to the MINN 38 for a 1ST down
31.9%
-1.6
Q2 0:51
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 13 yds to the MINN 25 for a 1ST down
31.0%
-0.9
Q2 0:38
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Ian Strong
31.0%
0.0
Q2 0:35
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Antwan Raymond, broken up by Emmanuel Karmo
31.0%
0.0
Q2 0:28
Antwan Raymond run for 23 yds to the MINN 2 for a 1ST down
30.8%
-0.2
Q2 0:18
Antwan Raymond 2 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)
16.8%
-14.0
MINN · Drive 14MISSED FG · 2 plays · 0 yds
Q2 0:18
Jack Scullion kickoff for 53 yds , Koi Perich return for 56 yds to the RUTG 32
17.9%
+1.1
Q2 0:05
Brady Denaburg 50 yd FG MISSED
23.8%
+5.9
MINN · Drive 15TD · 14 plays · 85 yds
Q3 15:00
Jack Scullion kickoff for 58 yds , Koi Perich return for 8 yds to the MINN 15
17.3%
-6.4
Q3 14:54
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Logan Loya, broken up by Cam Miller
21.6%
+4.3
Q3 14:48
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 9 yds to the MINN 24
21.6%
0.0
Q3 14:09
Fame Ijeboi run for 4 yds to the MINN 28 for a 1ST down
21.6%
0.0
Q3 13:26
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jameson Geers for 9 yds to the MINN 37
21.5%
-0.1
Q3 13:00
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 10 yds to the MINN 47 for a 1ST down
21.5%
0.0
Q3 12:39
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 9 yds to the RUTG 44
22.4%
+0.9
Q3 12:12
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jameson Geers for 6 yds to the RUTG 38 for a 1ST down
23.1%
+0.7
Q3 11:33
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Drew Biber for 11 yds to the RUTG 27 for a 1ST down
23.6%
+0.6
Q3 11:08
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Javon Tracy
23.6%
0.0
Q3 11:00
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Cam Davis for 1 yd to the RUTG 26
23.6%
0.0
Q3 10:19
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Fame Ijeboi for 12 yds to the RUTG 14 for a 1ST down
23.5%
-0.2
Q3 9:55
Fame Ijeboi run for 5 yds to the RUTG 9
25.3%
+1.8
Q3 9:18
Jalen Smith 9 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)
44.2%
+18.9
RUTG · Drive 16PUNT · 6 plays · 7 yds
Q3 9:18
Brady Denaburg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
42.0%
-2.2
Q3 9:16
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 14 yds to the RUTG 39 for a 1ST down
35.0%
-6.9
Q3 8:42
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to Kenny Fletcher Jr.
32.5%
-2.5
Q3 8:37
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Anthony Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the RUTG 33
32.5%
0.0
Q3 7:55
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Anthony Smith and Jaxon Howard for a loss of 1 yard to the RUTG 32
33.3%
+0.8
Q3 7:15
Jakob Anderson punt for 41 yds Minnesota Penalty, Offensive holding (Matt Kingsbury) to the MINN 17
33.3%
0.0
MINN · Drive 17FG · 15 plays · 75 yds
Q3 7:07
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Jalen Smith
40.1%
+6.8
Q3 7:01
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 10 yds to the MINN 27 for a 1ST down
38.3%
-1.8
Q3 6:35
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Drew Biber for 5 yds to the MINN 32
38.3%
0.0
Q3 6:03
Fame Ijeboi run for 3 yds to the MINN 35
38.3%
0.0
Q3 5:22
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Logan Loya for 10 yds to the MINN 45 for a 1ST down
38.3%
0.0
Q3 4:55
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 11 yds to the RUTG 44 for a 1ST down
39.1%
+0.9
Q3 4:13
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Drew Biber for 4 yds to the RUTG 40
40.0%
+0.9
Q3 3:30
Fame Ijeboi run for 16 yds to the RUTG 24 for a 1ST down
40.4%
+0.4
Q3 3:13
Drake Lindsey sacked by Bradley Weaver for a loss of 2 yards to the RUTG 26
40.4%
0.0
Q3 2:26
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Frank Bierman for 4 yds to the RUTG 22
40.4%
0.0
Q3 1:43
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Le'Meke Brockington, broken up by Kaj Sanders for a 1ST down Rutgers Penalty, Defensive holding (Kaj Sanders) to the RUTG 12 for a 1ST down
40.1%
-0.2
Q3 1:37
Fame Ijeboi run for 4 yds to the RUTG 8
40.4%
+0.2
Q3 1:00
Fame Ijeboi run for no gain to the RUTG 8
40.4%
0.0
Q3 0:20
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Le'Meke Brockington
40.1%
-0.2
Q3 0:11
Brady Denaburg 26 Yd Field Goal
49.4%
+9.2
RUTG · Drive 18TD · 10 plays · 75 yds
Q3 0:11
Brady Denaburg kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
60.7%
+11.3
Q3 0:09
Antwan Raymond run for 17 yds to the RUTG 42 for a 1ST down
50.1%
-10.6
Q4 14:58
Antwan Raymond run for 10 yds to the MINN 48 for a 1ST down
49.2%
-0.9
Q4 14:40
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Antwan Raymond for 12 yds to the MINN 36 for a 1ST down
48.1%
-1.1
Q4 13:59
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher Jr. for 10 yds to the MINN 26 for a 1ST down
47.4%
-0.7
Q4 13:18
Antwan Raymond run for a loss of 5 yards to the MINN 31
49.5%
+2.1
Q4 12:33
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to DT Sheffield, broken up by Mike Gerald
49.5%
0.0
Q4 12:27
Antwan Raymond run for 20 yds to the MINN 11 for a 1ST down
49.5%
0.0
Q4 11:52
Antwan Raymond run for 7 yds to the MINN 4
51.8%
+2.2
Q4 11:28
Antwan Raymond 4 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)
17.3%
-34.4
MINN · Drive 19PUNT · 5 plays · 5 yds
Q4 11:28
Jack Scullion kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback
18.6%
+1.3
Q4 11:22
Drake Lindsey sacked by Bradley Weaver for a loss of 5 yards to the MINN 20
24.6%
+6.0
Q4 10:44
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Le'Meke Brockington for 11 yds to the MINN 31
24.6%
0.0
Q4 10:06
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for a loss of 1 yard to the MINN 30
24.6%
0.0
Q4 9:29
Tom Weston punt for 59 yds
28.2%
+3.6
RUTG · Drive 20PUNT · 6 plays · 20 yds
Q4 9:17
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 2 yds to the RUTG 13
19.0%
-9.2
Q4 8:42
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Kenny Fletcher Jr. for 15 yds to the RUTG 28 for a 1ST down
18.9%
0.0
Q4 8:03
Antwan Raymond run for 3 yds to the RUTG 31
18.9%
0.0
Q4 7:19
Antwan Raymond run for no gain to the RUTG 31
18.9%
0.0
Q4 6:38
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to KJ Duff, broken up by Mike Gerald
18.9%
0.0
Q4 6:31
Jakob Anderson punt for 41 yds
18.9%
0.0
MINN · Drive 21TD · 7 plays · 72 yds
Q4 6:23
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 27 yds to the RUTG 45 for a 1ST down
30.6%
+11.7
Q4 5:48
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Drew Biber for 21 yds to the RUTG 24 for a 1ST down
30.4%
-0.2
Q4 5:21
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Javon Tracy for 5 yds to the RUTG 19
31.3%
+0.9
Q4 4:48
Drake Lindsey pass incomplete to Kenric Lanier II
28.6%
-2.7
Q4 4:41
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jameson Geers for 9 yds to the RUTG 10 for a 1ST down
28.6%
0.0
Q4 4:07
Drake Lindsey pass complete to Jalen Smith for 6 yds to the RUTG 4
27.6%
-1.0
Q4 3:19
Javon Tracy 4 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)
66.6%
+39.0
RUTG · Drive 22MISSED FG · 15 plays · 37 yds
Q4 3:19
Brady Denaburg kickoff for 50 yds for a touchback
65.9%
-0.7
Q4 3:16
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Karter Menz for a loss of 4 yards to the RUTG 21
58.7%
-7.2
Q4 2:39
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 16 yds to the RUTG 37 for a 1ST down
61.9%
+3.2
Q4 2:05
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to DT Sheffield, broken up by Kerry Brown
63.7%
+1.8
Q4 2:00
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 11 yds to the RUTG 48 for a 1ST down
63.7%
0.0
Q4 1:51
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to DT Sheffield for 9 yds to the MINN 43
61.7%
-2.0
Q4 1:46
Antwan Raymond run for no gain to the MINN 43
61.0%
-0.7
Q4 1:24
Rutgers Penalty, false start (Tyler Needham) to the MINN 48
60.4%
-0.6
Q4 1:10
Antwan Raymond run for 6 yds to the MINN 42 for a 1ST down
62.5%
+2.1
Q4 0:58
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to KJ Duff for 9 yds to the MINN 33
62.0%
-0.5
Q4 0:52
Athan Kaliakmanis run for 7 yds to the MINN 26 for a 1ST down
61.2%
-0.7
Q4 0:42
Athan Kaliakmanis pass incomplete to DT Sheffield
61.6%
+0.4
Q4 0:37
Athan Kaliakmanis sacked by Rushawn Lawrence for a loss of 15 yards to the MINN 41
61.3%
-0.4
Q4 0:30
Athan Kaliakmanis pass complete to Ian Strong for 3 yds to the MINN 38
64.7%
+3.4
Q4 0:20
Dane Pizzaro 56 yd FG MISSED
64.3%
-0.4
MINN · Drive 23END OF GAME · 1 play · 0 yds
Q4 0:17
Drake Lindsey run for a loss of 3 yards to the MINN 38
80.8%
+16.5
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:19
Javon Tracy 4 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)
+39
TD · Q4 11:28
Antwan Raymond 4 Yd Run (Jai Patel Kick)
-34.4
TD · Q2 7:58
Le'Meke Brockington 8 Yd pass from Drake Lindsey (Brady Denaburg Kick)
+21