2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreMINN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the Nwest 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 7:55: Matthew Trickett 26 yd FG GOOD — NU win probability +2.8 pts (now 27%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:51: A. Marty pass,to E. Hull for 6 yds for a TD, (C. Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +5.2 pts (now 31%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
- TD · Q2 4:47: M. Irving run for 3 yds for a TD, (M. Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +5.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:54: T. Morgan run for 18 yds for a TD, (M. Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +6.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:33: Mar'Keise Irving run for 41 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +2.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 7:55MINN 4th & 6 at NU 8, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 65.1% before the snapGo for it65.0%−<0.132% to convertField goalTheir call65.0%90% to makePunt63.9%−1.1average punt
- Q1 6:29NU 4th & 14 at NU 21, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.0% before the snapGo for it31.8%−0.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.1%average punt
- Q1 0:52MINN 4th & 6 at NU 11, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.4% before the snapGo for it68.1%−0.135% to convertField goalTheir call68.2%87% to makePunt65.6%−2.6average punt
- Q2 4:21NU 4th & 10 at NU 25, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snapGo for it24.3%−0.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.2%average punt
- Q3 15:00NU 4th & 1 at NU 49, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call25.7%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt24.3%−1.4average punt
- Q3 9:35NU 4th & 3 at MINN 28, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.7%52% to convertField goal23.1%−0.660% to makePunt19.0%−4.7average punt
- Q3 7:26MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 34, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.9% before the snapGo for it82.5%−0.448% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call82.9%average punt
- Q3 6:15NU 4th & 4 at NU 27, down 13Close callPunted · 19.9% before the snapGo for it20.5%47% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q4 12:59NU 4th & 8 at NU 43, down 20Close callWent for it · 3.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.3%−0.534% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.8%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 7:44MINN Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call67.2%97% to makeGo for two67.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:51NU Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call33.3%97% to makeGo for two33.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:47MINN Touchdown, up 12 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call74.3%97% to makeGo for two74.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 14:54MINN Touchdown, up 19 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.0%97% to makeGo for two93.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 9:33MINN Touchdown, up 26 before the tryClose callKicked · missedKickTheir call99.8%−<0.197% to makeGo for two99.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartMINNDrive 1FG13 plays · 67 yds · 7:0576% → 73%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-15
24.1%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Personal Foul (Dylan Wright) to the Minn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+10
24.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
24.1%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Roughing the Passer on MEISER, Jeremy enforced half the distance from the goal (14 Yards) to the Nwest 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2FUMBLE RETURN TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:1127% → 25%
NUDrive 3PUNT4 plays · -4 yds · 1:1525% → 25%
Q1 6:29
4TH & 14
OWN 21
+13
24.8%
Derek Adams punt for 51 yds , Brock Annexstad returns for 13 yds to the Minn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4FG12 plays · 48 yds · 5:3775% → 78%
Q1 5:01
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+19
24.8%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Bryce Williams for 19 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+11
24.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Ky Thomas for 11 yds to the Nwest 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:01
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
24.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Brevyn Spann-Ford for no gain to the Nwest 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 5TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0124% → 31%
Q2 11:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
30.6%
A. Marty pass,to E. Hull for 6 yds for a TD, (C. Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6TD12 plays · 75 yds · 7:0472% → 79%
NUDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:2622% → 21%
MINNDrive 8INT12 plays · 56 yds · 3:4179% → 84%
NUDrive 9END OF HALF1 play · -1 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10DOWNS13 plays · 47 yds · 5:2521% → 21%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
20.9%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Malik Washington for 14 yds to the Nwest 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-5
21.8%
JEFFERSON, JJ rush to the left for a gain of 7 yards to the NU49 (NUBIN, Tyler). PENALTY Before the snap, NU Illegal Formation enforced 5 yards from the NU42 to the NU37. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-6
23.4%
JJ Jefferson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Minn 41 fumbled, recovered by Nwest JJ JeffersonSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 41
+13
21.1%
Andrew Marty pass complete to JJ Jefferson for 13 yds to the Minn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 2:0983% → 84%
Q3 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
16.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mar'Keise Irving for 1 yd to the Minn 29Similar
Q3 9:35
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-5
16.6%
MORGAN, Tanner pass to the left complete for 16 yards to BROWN-STEPHENS, Mike caught at the MIN41 and advanced to the MIN45 (HAMPTON, JR., A.J.). PENALTY MIN Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on OLSON, Conner enforced 5 yards from the MIN29 to the MIN24 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 7:26
4TH & 4
OWN 34
+1
15.9%
Mark Crawford punt for 46 yds , JJ Jefferson returns for 1 yd to the Nwest 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1119% → 18%
Q3 6:15
4TH & 4
OWN 27
0
17.7%
Derek Adams punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Brock Annexstad at the Minn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13TD11 plays · 71 yds · 6:2187% → 97%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
9.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mike Brown-Stephens for 4 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14DOWNS7 plays · 29 yds · 1:434% → 3%
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+12
3.8%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Evan Hull for 12 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-3
3.9%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Evan Hull for a loss of 3 yards to the Nwest 23Similar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 13
OWN 23
+18
3.7%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Wayne Dennis Jr. for 18 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+2
4.0%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Berkeley Holman for 2 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15TD6 plays · 43 yds · 3:2697% → 100%
Q4 12:59
2ND & 8
OPP 31
-10
2.7%
THOMAS, Ky rush to the right for a gain of 3 yards to the NU28 (MITCHELL, Cameron). PENALTY MIN Holding on ANDRIES, Blaise enforced 10 yards from the NU31 to the NU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 18
OPP 41
+41
0.5%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 41 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16TD9 plays · 74 yds · 2:510% → 2%
Q4 9:28
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
0.4%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Malik Washington for 5 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q4 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
0.4%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
1.7%
Andrew Marty pass complete to Berkeley Holman for 17 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17TD12 plays · 54 yds · 4:4099% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18END OF 4TH QUARTER3 plays · 5 yds · 1:490% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:54
T. Morgan run for 18 yds for a TD, (M. Trickett KICK)
-6.6
TD · Q2 4:47
M. Irving run for 3 yds for a TD, (M. Trickett KICK)
-5.6
TD · Q2 11:51
A. Marty pass,to E. Hull for 6 yds for a TD, (C. Kuhbander KICK)
+5.2