2021 · Guaranteed Rate Bowl · Dec 28, 2021 · Chase Field
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Win probability · MINN
modelMINN aheadWVU aheadconfidence bandkey playMINN scoreWVU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · Justin Johnson Jr. run for 15 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 8:48: Jarret Doege run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — WVU win probability +7.2 pts (now 37%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:14: Ky Thomas run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +7.5 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:53: Matthew Trickett 49 yd FG GOOD — MINN win probability +4.6 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 2:31: Mar'Keise Irving run for no gain to the Minn 42 — MINN win probability +3.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
- FUMBLE · Q3 1:00: TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the WVirg 38 TEAM fumbled, recovered by WVirg Garrett Greene — WVU win probability +4.4 pts (now 16%) (top driver: WVU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
MINN made the numbers' call on 3 of 5WVU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
- Q1 14:15WVU 4th & 8 at WVU 15, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snapGo for it33.0%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.1%average punt
- Q1 7:56WVU 4th & 6 at WVU 24, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snapGo for it33.5%−0.238% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.7%average punt
- Q1 3:19WVU 4th & 20 at WVU 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snapGo for it32.9%−1.08% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.9%average punt
- Q2 6:44MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 36, up 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 65.4% before the snapGo for it64.3%−1.031% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call65.3%average punt
- Q2 4:31WVU 4th & 16 at WVU 30, down 2Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.4% before the snapGo for it30.4%−2.015% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call32.4%average punt
- Q3 12:37MINN 4th & 22 at MINN 42, up 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snapGo for it72.5%−3.88% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.4%average punt
- Q3 10:51WVU 4th & 12 at WVU 21, down 9Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snapGo for it19.6%−2.822% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call22.4%average punt
- Q3 5:53MINN 4th & 7 at WVU 31, up 9Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 80.9% before the snapGo for it80.6%−0.137% to convertField goalTheir call80.7%54% to makePunt79.2%−1.5average punt
- Q3 2:49WVU 4th & 11 at MINN 42, down 12Close callWent for it · 13.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call14.0%−0.327% to convertField goal13.8%−0.530% to makePunt14.3%average punt
- Q4 14:53WVU 4th & 4 at WVU 47, down 12Close callPunted · 13.4% before the snapGo for it13.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 9:13MINN 4th & 4 at MINN 49, up 12Close callPunted · 92.5% before the snapGo for it92.7%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call92.0%−0.6average punt
- Q4 7:54WVU 4th & 6 at WVU 15, down 12Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it6.4%−0.239% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.6%average punt
- Q4 0:04MINN 4th & 12 at WVU 12, up 12Close callWent for it · 97.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call96.7%−0.619% to convertField goal97.3%86% to makePunt95.5%−1.8average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2WVU made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
- Q2 14:19MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryClose callWent for two · convertedKick69.2%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call69.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:48WVU Touchdown, down 2 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick34.9%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call34.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:14MINN Touchdown, up 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call76.7%97% to makeGo for two76.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWVUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3534% → 34%
MINNDrive 2MISSED FG11 plays · 42 yds · 5:0066% → 66%
Q1 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
66.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 9 yds to the WVirg 48Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 9
OPP 42
+22
66.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 22 yds to the WVirg 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
66.0%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Dante Stills for a loss of 10 yards to the WVirg 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:0435% → 34%
MINNDrive 4FUMBLE4 plays · 52 yds · 1:5666% → 66%
Q1 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+36
65.7%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 36 yds to the WVirg 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 7
OPP 19
+4
66.1%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 4 yds to the WVirg 15Similar
Q1 5:49
3RD & 3
OPP 15
+9
65.8%
Ky Thomas run for 9 yds to the WVirg 6 Ky Thomas fumbled, recovered by WVirg Charles WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 5PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 2:2135% → 35%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-7
64.6%
Jarret Doege sacked by Esezi Otomewo for a loss of 7 yards to the WVirg 9Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 17
OWN 9
-8
64.8%
Jarret Doege sacked by Boye Mafe for a loss of 8 yards to the WVirg 1Similar
Q1 3:19
4TH & 20
OWN 6
0
65.5%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Brock Annexstad at the Minn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6TD8 plays · 54 yds · 3:3766% → 73%
Q1 1:38
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+5
66.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mike Brown-Stephens for 5 yds to the WVirg 34Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+6
65.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 6 yds to the WVirg 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.5%
Daniel Faalele run for 2 yds for a TD, (B. Annexstad Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 7TD17 plays · 75 yds · 5:2428% → 37%
Q2 14:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
71.8%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Winston Wright Jr. for 12 yds to the WVirg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+7
71.3%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sean Ryan for 7 yds to the Minn 45Similar
Q2 12:55
3RD & 3
OPP 45
+14
70.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 14 yds to the Minn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
69.7%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 7 yds to the Minn 24Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 3
OPP 24
-5
69.5%
WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, False Start (Bryce Ford-Wheaton) to the Minn 29Similar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+15
69.8%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Tyler Nubin) to the Minn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 0
OPP 4
+2
69.3%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Defensive Holding (Justin Walley) to the Minn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
62.8%
Jarret Doege run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 1:3166% → 65%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 9PUNT6 plays · 13 yds · 1:5534% → 32%
Q2 6:03
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+12
65.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 12 yds to the WVirg 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:11
3RD & 11
OWN 35
-5
66.9%
Jarret Doege sacked by Esezi Otomewo for a loss of 5 yards to the WVirg 30Similar
Q2 4:31
4TH & 16
OWN 30
+31
68.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MINNESOTA 34 WEST VIRGINIA Penalty, 12 Men on the Field (-5 Yards) to the Minn 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10TD4 plays · 61 yds · 2:0868% → 77%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 11INT12 plays · 40 yds · 1:2823% → 25%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
77.0%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 7 yds to the WVirg 32Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
75.6%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Bryce Ford-Wheaton for 8 yds to the WVirg 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
75.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 6 yds to the WVirg 46Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+15
75.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Reese Smith for 15 yds Reese Smith fumbled, recovered by WVirg Tony Mathis Jr. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+4
75.2%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Reese Smith for 4 yds to the Minn 35Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 11
OPP 35
0
75.0%
Jarret Doege pass intercepted Michael Dixon return for no gain to the Minn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
MINNDrive 13PUNT7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1276% → 74%
WVUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 1:2624% → 22%
MINNDrive 15FG8 plays · 39 yds · 4:4877% → 85%
Q3 6:27
3RD & 18
OPP 42
+11
79.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Derik LeCaptain for 11 yds to the WVirg 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 16DOWNS9 plays · 45 yds · 2:5116% → 16%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
84.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Reese Smith for 12 yds to the WVirg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
83.4%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Tony Mathis Jr. for 9 yds to the WVirg 45Similar
Q3 4:11
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+14
82.1%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Sam James for 14 yds to the Minn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-8
81.7%
Jarret Doege sacked by Tyler Nubin for a loss of 8 yards to the Minn 49Similar
Q3 3:08
2ND & 18
OPP 49
+7
84.5%
Jarret Doege pass complete to Reese Smith for 7 yds to the Minn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17INT3 plays · 3 yds · 1:1188% → 88%
WVUDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 1:0716% → 15%
MINNDrive 19PUNT9 plays · 39 yds · 5:1888% → 93%
WVUDrive 20PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 1:108% → 7%
MINNDrive 21DOWNS18 plays · 47 yds · 7:3995% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WVUDrive 22END OF GAME1 play · 15 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
98.3%
Justin Johnson Jr. run for 15 yds to the WVirg 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:14
Ky Thomas run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)
+7.5
TD · Q2 8:48
Jarret Doege run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-7.2
FG · Q3 5:53
Matthew Trickett 49 yd FG GOOD
+4.6