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MINN

Minnesota 30 at Colorado 0

COLO
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadMINN aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreMINN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:28 · Treyson Potts run for 5 yds to the Colo 3 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Home team on offense−24.4Score differential−11.3Garbage-time factor−6.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Pregame prior+1.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:38: Treyson Potts 2 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett Kick) — MINN win probability +8.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Treyson Potts run for 6 yds to the Minn 17 — COLO win probability +6.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 6:46: MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brevyn Spann-Ford) to the Minn 9 — MINN win probability +6.3 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 4:28: Mar'Keise Irving run for 8 yds to the Colo 35 — MINN win probability +8.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:23: Treyson Potts run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK) — MINN win probability +14.6 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MINN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MINN made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:52COLO 4th & 25 at COLO 10, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.0%−0.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:05MINN 4th & 5 at COLO 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    40.6%−1.5
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:30COLO 4th & 13 at COLO 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.1%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:24MINN 4th & 11 at MINN 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.7%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:47COLO 4th & 2 at COLO 28, tied
    Close callPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.9%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:18COLO 4th & 22 at COLO 24, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−2.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:09COLO 4th & 14 at COLO 28, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.1%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:17MINN 4th & 6 at MINN 23, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.3%−0.9
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:05COLO 4th & 7 at MINN 39, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 37.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    36.8%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    36.4%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:26MINN 4th & 3 at COLO 28, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.7%−1.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    63.9%−8.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:46COLO 4th & 6 at COLO 43, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.6
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:35MINN 4th & 9 at MINN 16, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%−2.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:28MINN 4th & 1 at COLO 8, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    77.3%−3.6
    90% to make
    Punt
    67.9%−12.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:44COLO 4th & 12 at COLO 23, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.5%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:43MINN 4th & 12 at MINN 26, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−1.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:53MINN 4th & 11 at COLO 15, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%
    83% to make
    Punt
    93.6%−3.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:16COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 31, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:27COLO 4th & 7 at MINN 46, down 30
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MINN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 12:19MINN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 5:38MINN Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:23MINN Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:09MINN Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -15 yds · 2:0854% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
54.4%
run for a loss of 10 yards to the Colo 15Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+4
54.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 4 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 26
OWN 9
+1
54.5%
Alex Fontenot run for 1 yd to the Colo 10Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 16
OWN 19
0
54.5%
LEWIS, Brendon pass to the left complete for 15 yards to RUSSELL, Brady caught at the COL34 and advanced to the COL34, out of bounds. PENALTY COL Holding on WRAY, Max enforced half the distance from the goal, 10 yards from the COL19 to the COL9 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:52
4TH & 25
OWN 10
+14
54.5%
Josh Watts punt for 62 yds , Treyson Potts returns for 14 yds to the Minn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 2MISSED FG
12 plays · 52 yds · 6:4746% → 45%
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
54.5%
Treyson Potts run for 5 yds to the Minn 47Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+9
54.5%
Treyson Potts run for 9 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
54.4%
Treyson Potts run for 5 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+13
54.4%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 13 yds to the Colo 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
54.4%
Bryce Williams run for 1 yd to the Colo 24Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+5
54.4%
Treyson Potts run for 5 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q1 12:52
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+8
54.5%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 8 yds to the Colo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
54.4%
Treyson Potts run for 6 yds to the Colo 5Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 4
OPP 5
-3
53.9%
Treyson Potts run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 8Similar
Q1 6:51
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+2
54.5%
Tanner Morgan run for 2 yds to the Colo 6Similar
Q1 6:05
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
55.0%
Matthew Trickett 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3556% → 56%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
56.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
56.3%
Alex Fontenot run for 3 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 7
OWN 23
0
56.0%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Boye Mafe for 0 yards to the Colo 17Similar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+12
56.0%
Josh Watts punt for 53 yds for a 1ST down , Treyson Potts returns for 12 yds to the Minn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:0644% → 43%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
55.7%
Treyson Potts run for a loss of 1 yard to the Minn 26Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 11
OWN 26
0
55.8%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 11
OWN 26
0
56.1%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:24
4TH & 11
OWN 26
+3
56.7%
Mark Crawford punt for 57 yds , Dimitri Stanley returns for 3 yds to the Colo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:3757% → 56%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
56.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
56.5%
Alex Fontenot run for no gain to the Colo 20Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+8
56.1%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Alex Fontenot for 8 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 1:47
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
56.0%
Josh Watts punt for 54 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 6TD
8 plays · 82 yds · 4:2844% → 52%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+15
55.6%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 15 yds to the Minn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
55.2%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Mar'Keise Irving for 3 yds to the Minn 36Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+14
54.9%
Treyson Potts run for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
53.8%
Treyson Potts run for 2 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+3
53.8%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 3 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 45
+32
54.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 32 yds to the Colo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
53.3%
Treyson Potts run for no gain to the Colo 13Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
47.9%
Treyson Potts 13 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 3:0151% → 49%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
51.1%
Jarek Broussard run for 8 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+1
52.3%
Jarek Broussard run for 1 yd to the Colo 34Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
51.7%
Brendon Lewis run for 2 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
51.6%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
51.5%
Jarek Broussard run for no gain to the Colo 36Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
50.7%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Thomas Rush for 0 yards to the Colo 24Similar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 22
OWN 24
+15
49.0%
Josh Watts punt for 53 yds , Brock Annexstad returns for 15 yds to the Minn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 8TD
7 plays · 62 yds · 3:4053% → 66%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
47.2%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 2 yds to the Minn 40Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+39
47.0%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Dylan Wright for 39 yds to the Colo 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
45.9%
Treyson Potts run for 2 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+4
43.4%
Treyson Potts run for 4 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 4
OPP 15
+13
43.1%
Treyson Potts run for 13 yds to the Colo 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.5%
Treyson Potts 2 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 2:2339% → 36%
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
38.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Russell for 8 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+2
39.3%
Jarek Broussard run for 2 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
38.8%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-3
38.7%
Jarek Broussard run for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 29Similar
Q2 5:32
3RD & 13
OWN 29
0
37.8%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Boye Mafe for 0 yards to the Colo 28Similar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 14
OWN 28
0
36.3%
Josh Watts punt for 56 yds , returns for no gain to the Minn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5265% → 67%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
34.7%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 2 yds to the Minn 21Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+2
34.0%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 2 yds to the Minn 23Similar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 6
OWN 23
0
33.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:17
4TH & 6
OWN 23
0
32.9%
Mark Crawford punt for 30 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11DOWNS
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1239% → 31%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
38.5%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brenden Rice for 11 yds to the Minn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
38.9%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
38.8%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Jarek Broussard for 3 yds to the Minn 39Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 7
OPP 39
0
37.4%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 7
OPP 39
0
31.3%
Brendon Lewis sacked by Thomas Rush for 0 yards to the Colo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 12END OF HALF
5 plays · 21 yds · 1:0572% → 75%
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
27.6%
Treyson Potts run for 4 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+13
27.3%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 13 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
26.7%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:05
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-5
26.8%
MORGAN, Tanner pass to the left complete for 15 yards to JACKSON, Daniel caught at the COL29 and advanced to the COL17 (PERRY, Mark). PENALTY MIN Ineligible Receiver Downfield on Pass on SCHLUETER, Sam enforced 5 yards from the COL32 to the COL37 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+9
25.3%
Treyson Potts run for 9 yds to the Colo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 5:3468% → 74%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
31.7%
Treyson Potts run for 6 yds to the Minn 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+4
31.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Ko Kieft for 4 yds to the Minn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
31.6%
Treyson Potts run for 1 yd to the Minn 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+33
31.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 33 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
29.9%
Treyson Potts run for no gain to the Colo 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
29.9%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Daniel Jackson for 10 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-1
29.9%
Mar'Keise Irving run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 36
0
29.9%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+8
30.2%
Treyson Potts run for 8 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+46
25.9%
Matthew Trickett 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:4030% → 27%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
30.3%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brenden Rice for 11 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
30.9%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Brady Russell for 2 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-1
31.1%
Brendon Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+8
30.0%
Brendon Lewis pass complete to Daniel Arias for 8 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 1
OWN 48
-5
31.0%
COLORADO Penalty, Delay Of Game (-5 Yards) to the Colo 43Similar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 6
OWN 43
0
26.9%
Josh Watts punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Brock Annexstad at the Minn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 2:1179% → 80%
Q3 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
20.6%
MINNESOTA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Brevyn Spann-Ford) to the Minn 9Similar
Q3 6:46
1ST & 16
OWN 9
+1
21.1%
Tanner Morgan run for 1 yd to the Minn 10Similar
Q3 6:46
2ND & 15
OWN 10
+6
20.6%
Tanner Morgan pass complete to Chris Autman-Bell for 6 yds to the Minn 16Similar
Q3 6:46
3RD & 9
OWN 16
0
21.2%
Tanner Morgan pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:35
4TH & 9
OWN 16
0
20.0%
Mark Crawford punt for 45 yds , returns for no gain to the Colo 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16FUMBLE
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
25.5%
Brendon Lewis run for 3 yds to the Colo 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 17TD
8 plays · 43 yds · 4:0583% → 96%
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
17.0%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 8 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+3
16.6%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 3 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+15
16.7%
MORGAN, Tanner pass to the left incomplete intended for AUTMAN-BELL, Chris broken up by BLACKMON, Mekhi at the COL5. PENALTY COL Pass Interference on BLACKMON, Mekhi enforced 15 yards to the COL17 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
16.6%
Treyson Potts run for 5 yds to the Colo 12Similar
Q3 4:28
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+3
16.6%
Treyson Potts run for 3 yds to the Colo 9Similar
Q3 4:28
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+1
17.0%
Treyson Potts run for 1 yd to the Colo 8Similar
Q3 4:28
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+5
18.6%
Treyson Potts run for 5 yds to the Colo 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.0%
Treyson Potts run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:165% → 5%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
5.4%
Ashaad Clayton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
5.3%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
5.2%
Brendon Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
5.2%
Josh Watts punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Brock Annexstad at the Minn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 2:0196% → 96%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
4.4%
Mar'Keise Irving run for a loss of 2 yards to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+2
4.6%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 2 yds to the Minn 28Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 10
OWN 28
0
4.6%
Tanner Morgan sacked by Carson Wells for 0 yards to the Minn 26Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
4.2%
Mark Crawford punt for 41 yds , returns for no gain to the Colo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 20FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5097% → 98%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+23
3.5%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 23 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
3.4%
MINNESOTA Penalty, False Start (Axel Ruschmeyer) to the Colo 19Similar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 15
OPP 19
-1
3.5%
Mar'Keise Irving run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 20Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 16
OPP 20
+1
2.7%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 1 yd to the Colo 19Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 15
OPP 19
+4
2.3%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 4 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q4 9:53
4TH & 11
OPP 15
+33
1.6%
Matthew Trickett 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:372% → 2%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
2.4%
Ashaad Clayton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 23Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
2.4%
Drew Carter pass complete to Brenden Rice for 3 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
2.4%
Drew Carter run for 5 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
2.1%
Josh Watts punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Brock Annexstad at the Minn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 22TD
6 plays · 77 yds · 3:0799% → 100%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+28
1.3%
Mar'Keise Irving run for 28 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+24
1.0%
Ky Thomas run for 24 yds to the Colo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
0.9%
Ky Thomas run for 8 yds to the Colo 17Similar
Q4 6:45
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+3
0.8%
Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
0.2%
Ky Thomas run for 14 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 2:190% → 0%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
0.2%
Drew Carter pass complete to Ty Robinson for 9 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
0.1%
Drew Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
0.2%
Deion Smith run for 1 yd to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
0.2%
Drew Carter run for 4 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+12
0.1%
Drew Carter pass complete to Chase Penry for 12 yds to the Minn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
0.2%
Drew Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
0.2%
Drew Carter pass complete to Jayle Stacks for 3 yds to the Minn 46Similar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 7
OPP 46
0
0.2%
Drew Carter pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:27
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
0.1%
Drew Carter pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MINNDrive 24END OF 4TH QUARTER
3 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
0.2%
Ky Thomas run for 5 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q4 2:27
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+9
0.2%
Ky Thomas run for 9 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
0.2%
Ky Thomas run for 3 yds to the Colo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:23
Treyson Potts run for 3 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)
-14.6
TD · Q2 5:38
Treyson Potts 2 Yd Run (Matthew Trickett Kick)
-8.7
KEY PLAY · Q3 4:28
Mar'Keise Irving run for 8 yds to the Colo 35
-8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com