Michigan State

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2271st
  Defense+0.1354th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense43.4%52nd
  Defense44.0%34th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.3990th
  Defense+1.2075th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1148th
  Defense−0.0291st
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3583rd
  Defense+0.2340th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense47.9%47th
  Defense50.0%30th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense33.6%72nd
  Defense31.6%43rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9229th
  Defense2.7781st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.4%20th
  Defense17.1%52nd
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense17.6%27th
  Defense16.5%47th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Michigan State allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   NU
2. W
   YSU
3. W
   MIA
4. W
   NEB
5. W
   WKU
6. W
   RUTG
7. W
   IU
8. W
   MICH
9. L
   PUR
10. W
    MD
11. L
    OSU
12. W
    PSU
13. W
    PITT

Bars above the line: better than expected for Michigan State.

Players, 2021

1. Payton ThorneQB379 plays · +0.328 pts/play · 22nd of 219 QBs
   2.33WAR1.48 to 3.13
2. Kenneth Walker IIIRB235 plays · +0.259 pts/play · 4th of 387 RBs
   1.14WAR0.89 to 1.41
3. Jayden ReedWR84 plays · +0.150 pts/play · 39th of 474 WRs
   0.24WAR0.14 to 0.33
4. Bryce BaringerP47 plays · +0.163 pts/play · 31st of 101 punters
   0.14WAR0.03 to 0.25
5. Jalen NailorWR49 plays · +0.156 pts/play · 150th of 474 WRs
   0.14WAR0.08 to 0.20
6. Tre MosleyWR44 plays · +0.168 pts/play · 158th of 474 WRs
   0.14WAR0.09 to 0.18
7. Connor HeywardRB36 plays · +0.188 pts/play · 268th of 387 RBs
   0.13WAR0.08 to 0.17
8. Jordon SimmonsRB42 plays · +0.129 pts/play · 290th of 387 RBs
   0.10WAR0.06 to 0.14

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Michigan State's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  67767736th of 130Roster talent: 677, 36th of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  20320336th of 130Recruiting: 203, 36th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  57%57%94th of 128Returning production: 57%, 94th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +11.2+11.228th of 130SP+ rating: +11.2, 28th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Michigan State's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 2 clear-cut ones account for 0.08 of the 0.15 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs PSUQ4 5:10 4th & 15 at PSU 20, up 3Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−6.8 pts
2. vs PITTQ3 9:37 4th & 13 at PITT 28, down 11Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal−1.7 pts
3. at IUQ3 7:54 4th & 5 at IU 34, down 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
4. vs PITTQ3 3:41 4th & 5 at MSU 41, down 11Went for it; the numbers favored punting (close call)−0.8 pts
5. at IUQ4 8:31 4th & 5 at IU 31, down 5Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
6. at PURQ4 9:12 4th & 4 at PUR 9, down 13Went for it; the numbers favored a field goal (close call)−0.7 pts
7. vs PSUQ1 1:32 4th & 1 at MSU 34, up 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.6 pts
8. vs WKUQ4 4:46 4th & 3 at WKU 3, up 14Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

2nd of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Michigan State's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   NU
2. W

   YSU
3. W

   MIA
4. W

   NEB
5. W

   WKU
6. W

   RUTG
7. W

   IU
8. W

   MICH
9. L

   PUR
10. W

    MD
11. L

    OSU
12. W

    PSU
13. W

    PITT

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Michigan State's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+3.09
• Possession & field position+0.02
• Clock+0.13
• Timeouts−0.13
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.02

Game by game

• NUW 38-21 at NU47% → 98%Before kickoff −3 · On the field +51: Scoreboard +54, Clock +1
• YSUW 42-14 vs YSU96% → 100%Before kickoff +46 · On the field +4: Scoreboard +7
• MIAW 38-17 at MIA28% → 99%Before kickoff −22 · On the field +71: Scoreboard +64, Clock +2
• NEBW 23-20 vs NEB59% → 83%Before kickoff +9 · On the field +24: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts −23
• WKUW 48-31 vs WKU82% → 99%Before kickoff +32 · On the field +17: Scoreboard +20, Timeouts +2
• RUTGW 31-13 at RUTG56% → 99%Before kickoff +6 · On the field +43: Scoreboard +48, Clock +2
• IUW 20-15 at IU58% → 30%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −10, Timeouts +1
• MICHW 37-33 vs MICH36% → 95%Before kickoff −14 · On the field +59: Scoreboard +37, Timeouts +3
• PURL 29-40 at PUR53% → 2%Before kickoff +3 · On the field −51: Scoreboard −40, Possession & field position −1
• MDW 40-21 vs MD75% → 99%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +25: Scoreboard +27, Timeouts +1
• OSUL 7-56 at OSU9% → 0%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −12
• PSUW 30-27 vs PSU34% → 95%Before kickoff −16 · On the field +61: Scoreboard +40, Timeouts +2
• PITTW 31-21 vs PITT53% → 97%Before kickoff +3 · On the field +44: Scoreboard +36, Timeouts +2

Points of win probability, from Michigan State's side.

Closest call

MSU 42-41 BAY (2014) - Michigan State dropped to a 2.4% win probability before pulling it out.