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NEB

Nebraska 20 at Michigan State 23

MSU
2021 · Week 4 · Sep 25, 2021 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadNEB aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreNEB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDFGFGTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:47 · Bryce Baringer punt for 66 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingGarbage-time factor
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 162Pregame prior+0.1Home team on offense+0.9Score differential−2.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Time remaining+2.2Garbage-time factor−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:08: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 35 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 8:20: Matt Coghlin 26 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +6.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:20: Adrian Martinez run for 12 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK) — NEB win probability +16.6 pts (now 49%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:29: Adrian Martinez 3 Yd Run (Connor Culp Kick) — NEB win probability +28.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. FG · OT 0:00: Matt Coghlin 21 yd FG GOOD — MSU win probability +17.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9NEB made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 12:19NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:08MSU 4th & 1 at NEB 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    60.7%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:33NEB 4th & 14 at MSU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%−0.4
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    39.2%−0.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:41MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:00NEB 4th & 12 at NEB 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:22NEB 4th & 10 at MSU 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    29.8%−4.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:20MSU 4th & 7 at NEB 8, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−4.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:20NEB 4th & 1 at MSU 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    34.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.9%−2.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    30.8%−3.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:03MSU 4th & 9 at NEB 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−1.0
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    55.0%−5.5
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:16NEB 4th & 14 at NEB 39, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.9%−1.3
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:10NEB 4th & 9 at MSU 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    27.3%−9.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:19MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:14NEB 4th & 13 at MSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.1%−2.0
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−1.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:57MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%−1.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:34MSU 4th & 11 at NEB 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%−2.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    55.6%−3.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:34NEB 4th & 3 at MSU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    44.6%−4.3
    42% to make
    Punt
    43.5%−5.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:13MSU 4th & 17 at MSU 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−3.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:47NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 28, up 7
    Close callPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%−0.2
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:47MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1NEB made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 14:08MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:20NEB Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:29NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1INT
4 plays · 16 yds · 1:3459% → 59%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
58.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+17
58.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 17 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
58.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
59.0%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted return for no gain to the Neb 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:0741% → 41%
Q1 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
58.9%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Drew Beesley and Jacub Panasiuk for 0 yards to the Neb 13Similar
Q1 13:26
2ND & 15
OWN 13
0
58.9%
Rahmir Johnson run for no gain to the Neb 13Similar
Q1 13:26
3RD & 15
OWN 13
+5
59.0%
Adrian Martinez run for 5 yds to the Neb 18Similar
Q1 12:19
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
59.1%
William Przystup punt for 28 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3DOWNS
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:3560% → 59%
Q1 7:43
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+1
59.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the Neb 29Similar
Q1 7:43
3RD & 5
OPP 29
+4
59.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 1
OPP 25
-5
59.3%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 5 yards to the Neb 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:3541% → 41%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
58.9%
Logan Smothers run for 4 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+4
58.7%
Logan Smothers pass complete to Omar Manning for 4 yds to the Neb 38Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+7
58.5%
Logan Smothers run for 7 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
58.4%
Rahmir Johnson run for 15 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
58.0%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 15
OPP 45
-5
58.4%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 20
50
0
58.5%
Logan Smothers run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 20
50
0
58.7%
Logan Smothers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 20
50
+6
58.9%
Rahmir Johnson run for 6 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
58.8%
Daniel Cerni punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:5259% → 58%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
58.6%
Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the MchSt 21Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+6
58.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 6 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
58.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for no gain to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 1:41
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
57.7%
Bryce Baringer punt for 67 yds, downed at the Neb 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:4142% → 41%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
58.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 10 yds to the Neb 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
57.9%
Markese Stepp run for 2 yds to the Neb 18Similar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
58.0%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:41
3RD & 8
OWN 18
0
58.6%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Quavaris Crouch for 0 yards to the Neb 14Similar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 12
OWN 14
0
59.0%
William Przystup punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7TD
3 plays · 55 yds · 0:5260% → 68%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
60.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+12
60.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 12 yds to the Neb 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
67.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 35 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:4636% → 38%
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
64.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 15 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
63.5%
Rahmir Johnson run for 2 yds to the Neb 42Similar
Q2 14:08
2ND & 8
OWN 42
-5
63.5%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 37Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & 13
OWN 37
+45
64.8%
Adrian Martinez run for 45 yds to the MICHIGANST 18 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Angelo Grose) to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
62.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Omar Manning for 1 yd to the MchSt 8Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
62.6%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 13Similar
Q2 12:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
+3
62.9%
Brody Belt run for 3 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q2 12:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
63.7%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:22
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
62.0%
Connor Culp 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9FG
6 plays · 49 yds · 2:5464% → 71%
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+35
64.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 35 yds to the Neb 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
64.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 11 yds to the Neb 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
64.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the Neb 7Similar
Q2 11:14
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+2
64.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the Neb 5Similar
Q2 11:14
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
64.3%
Payton Thorne sacked by Garrett Nelson for 0 yards to the Neb 8Similar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 7
OPP 8
+26
70.5%
Matt Coghlin 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 4:0031% → 49%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
69.2%
Adrian Martinez run for 13 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
68.5%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 7 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 3
OWN 45
-1
67.7%
Rahmir Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 44Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+17
68.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 17 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
67.2%
Rahmir Johnson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
66.0%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+4
67.3%
Adrian Martinez run for 4 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 8:20
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+18
68.2%
Rahmir Johnson run for 18 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
51.5%
Adrian Martinez run for 12 yds for a TD, (Connor Culp KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11FG
10 plays · 61 yds · 3:1161% → 66%
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
60.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 5 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+10
61.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 10 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
62.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 9 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+2
63.4%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+34
63.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 34 yds to the Neb 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
64.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 6 yds to the Neb 4Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
64.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 9Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
64.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
63.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+27
66.1%
Matt Coghlin 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:4735% → 31%
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
65.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 18 yds to the Neb 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
63.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Zavier Betts for 5 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 5
OWN 48
0
62.6%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Jacob Slade for 0 yards to the Neb 43Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 10
OWN 43
0
66.4%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Simeon Barrow and Jacub Panasiuk for 0 yards to the Neb 39Similar
Q2 0:16
4TH & 14
OWN 39
0
68.9%
William Przystup punt for 7 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13MISSED FG
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:1669% → 70%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
69.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 5 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+5
68.9%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Offsides (Caleb Tannor) to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
69.1%
Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 1
OPP 27
0
70.0%
Matt Coghlin 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by , Cam Taylor-Britt return for no gain to the Neb 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 5:5038% → 46%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
61.9%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+4
62.3%
Adrian Martinez run for 4 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+10
62.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 10 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
59.9%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+9
60.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 9 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+7
59.2%
Adrian Martinez run for 7 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
59.2%
Rahmir Johnson run for 1 yd to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+6
59.2%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Omar Manning for 6 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 33
+4
59.1%
Rahmir Johnson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
57.8%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Travis Vokolek for 18 yds to the MchSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
57.8%
Adrian Martinez run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+2
58.1%
Sevion Morrison run for 2 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 10
0
59.4%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:10
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+28
54.4%
Connor Culp 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5158% → 57%
Q3 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
57.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 9:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
58.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 6 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q3 9:10
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
58.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 33Similar
Q3 7:19
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
56.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 55 yds, downed at the Neb 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16PUNT
13 plays · 46 yds · 5:0546% → 46%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
54.4%
Rahmir Johnson run for 3 yds to the Neb 15Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+22
54.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Levi Falck for 22 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
52.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 36Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 11
OWN 36
0
53.6%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+11
55.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Samori Toure for 11 yds to the Neb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
50.3%
Rahmir Johnson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 7
50
+4
50.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 4 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+7
50.2%
Adrian Martinez run for 7 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
49.6%
Rahmir Johnson run for no gain to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 7:19
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
49.7%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Chase Kline and Jeff Pietrowski for 0 yards to the MchSt 42Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 13
OPP 42
0
52.5%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:14
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
54.0%
Daniel Cerni punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1756% → 52%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
56.0%
Jayden Reed run for 2 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 8
OWN 11
+3
55.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 3 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
53.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+54
52.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 54 yds , Samori Toure returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18FUMBLE
5 plays · 14 yds · 1:4048% → 51%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
52.5%
Rahmir Johnson run for 2 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+14
52.4%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 14 yds to the Neb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
48.9%
Adrian Martinez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+5
49.8%
Rahmir Johnson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 5
OPP 48
0
49.1%
Adrian Martinez sacked for 0 yards to the Neb 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4361% → 53%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
61.1%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 5
OPP 40
-6
61.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 6 yards to the Neb 46Similar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+11
57.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete pass complete to Jayden Reed for 11 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 11
OPP 46
0
52.7%
Bryce Baringer punt for 46 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 5:0554% → 85%
Q4 12:34
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+4
46.3%
Samori Toure run for 4 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
46.6%
Rahmir Johnson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+4
45.9%
Rahmir Johnson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 2
OPP 35
-1
47.0%
Rahmir Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 12:34
4TH & 3
OPP 36
+6
50.3%
Caleb Tannor run for 6 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
44.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Sevion Morrison for 14 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
44.1%
Sevion Morrison run for 8 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
52.3%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Brody Belt for 24 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
53.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Rahmir Johnson for 9 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 7:33
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+5
44.2%
Sevion Morrison run for 5 yds to the MchSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
15.4%
Adrian Martinez 3 Yd Run (Connor Culp Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:0924% → 18%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
24.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
24.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:22
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
23.3%
Payton Thorne sacked by Luke Reimer and Nick Henrich for 0 yards to the MchSt 14Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 17
OWN 14
0
17.8%
Bryce Baringer punt for 65 yds, downed at the Neb 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22PUNT RETURN TD
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:2684% → 43%
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
16.2%
Adrian Martinez run for 5 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q4 6:13
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+1
15.7%
Rahmir Johnson run for 1 yd to the Neb 27Similar
Q4 6:13
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+1
16.1%
Adrian Martinez run for 1 yd to the Neb 28Similar
Q4 3:47
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+62
56.8%
Daniel Cerni punt for 34 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 62 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 15 yds · 2:1947% → 47%
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
53.0%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Austin Allen for 11 yds to the Neb 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
52.4%
Rahmir Johnson run for 5 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q4 3:41
2ND & 5
OWN 34
-1
50.7%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Omar Manning for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 33Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
53.2%
William Przystup punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:3556% → 53%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
55.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
54.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
52.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Harold Joiner for 9 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q4 0:47
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
53.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 66 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:4747% → 50%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+18
53.1%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Shawn Hardy II for 18 yds to the Neb 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
50.3%
Adrian Martinez sacked by Jeff Pietrowski for 0 yards to the Neb 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26INT
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
OT 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
41.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 3 Adrian Martinez pass complete to Omar Manning for 5 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 27FG
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+23
65.6%
Adrian Martinez pass complete to Rahmir Johnson for 2 yds to the MchSt 23 Adrian Martinez pass complete to Rahmir Johnson for 2 yds to the MchSt 23 run for 23 yds to the Neb 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:29
Adrian Martinez 3 Yd Run (Connor Culp Kick)
-28.8
FG · OT 0:00
Matt Coghlin 21 yd FG GOOD
+17.2
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+17.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com