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MSU

Michigan State 7 at Ohio State 56

OSU
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · Ohio Stadium
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Win probability · OSU
modelOSU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playOSU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:20 · Bryce Baringer punt for 74 yds, downed at the OhSt 2
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 173Pregame prior+1.2Home team on offense+36.1Score differential+31.6Blowout margin+19.8Garbage-time factor+9.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 10:42: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 23 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 91%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 8:03: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 77 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +1.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 2:31: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 43 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +1.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 14:05: C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 4 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — OSU win probability +2.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 10:02: Miyan Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK) — MSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 4%) (top driver: OSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 9:19MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 3:55MSU 4th & 10 at OSU 29, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−1.3
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:48MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 31, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.6%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.8%
    average punt
  4. Q2 9:16MSU 4th & 20 at MSU 15, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.5
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:29MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 28, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:35MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 42, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:34MSU 4th & 18 at OSU 38, down 49
    Close callPunted · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 7:17OSU 4th & 9 at MSU 21, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:47MSU 4th & 10 at MSU 21, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:15MSU 4th & 2 at OSU 43, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    -0.0%−0.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:40OSU 4th & 3 at OSU 32, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:02MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 35, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 1:20MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 24, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OSU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:42OSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:03OSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:31OSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 14:05OSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 10:02OSU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 7:01OSU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 1:37OSU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:55MSU Touchdown, down 43 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:30OSU Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OSUDrive 1TD
14 plays · 86 yds · 4:1291% → 91%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
91.3%
OHIO ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the OhSt 9Similar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 15
OWN 9
+6
91.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 6 yds to the OhSt 15Similar
Q1 14:20
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+10
91.1%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 10 yds to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
91.0%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 7 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
90.9%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the OhSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
90.8%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+10
90.7%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 10 yds to the OhSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
90.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 9 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+3
90.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 3 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
90.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 4 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 11:30
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+12
90.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 12 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
90.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Miyan Williams for 2 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+23
90.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 23 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:169% → 9%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
90.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+16
90.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 16 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
90.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Ricky White, broken up by Zach HarrisonSimilar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
90.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
90.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q1 9:19
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+3
90.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 56 yds , Jaxon Smith-Njigba returns for 3 yds to the OhSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 88 yds · 1:0891% → 92%
Q1 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
90.5%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 15Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+5
90.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 5 yds to the OhSt 20Similar
Q1 8:35
3RD & 2
OWN 20
+3
90.3%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the OhSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+77
91.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 77 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4MISSED FG
14 plays · 55 yds · 4:009% → 9%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-4
91.2%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 12Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 14
OWN 12
0
91.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q1 7:00
3RD & 14
OWN 12
+14
91.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 14 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+10
91.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 10 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
91.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 1 yd to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 5:47
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
91.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q1 5:40
3RD & 9
OWN 37
+21
91.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 21 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-2
90.9%
Harold Joiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 44Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 12
OPP 44
+15
91.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 15 yds to the OhSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
90.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
90.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Terry Lockett Jr., broken up by Tommy EichenbergSimilar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
90.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q1 3:55
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+46
91.1%
Matt Coghlin 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 71 yds · 1:2092% → 94%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
91.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 6 yds to the OhSt 35Similar
Q1 3:34
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+15
91.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
50
+7
91.8%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 7 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+43
93.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 43 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:336% → 6%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
93.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
93.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 6 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+5
93.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 5 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
93.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
93.8%
Jordon Simmons run for 6 yds to the MchSt 44 Jordon Simmons fumbled, recovered by OhStSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 1:4594% → 97%
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
93.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to TreVeyon Henderson for 3 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+16
93.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 16 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
94.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 9 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+7
94.1%
C.J. Stroud run for 7 yds to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
94.2%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q2 14:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 4 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:123% → 3%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
96.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
96.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 4 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q2 12:59
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
96.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed, broken up by Cameron BrownSimilar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+14
97.0%
Bryce Baringer punt for 53 yds , Jaxon Smith-Njigba returns for 14 yds to the OhSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 2:3897% → 96%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
97.0%
Miyan Williams run for 14 yds to the OhSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
97.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 8 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 11:40
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+1
97.1%
Miyan Williams run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 1
OPP 47
+5
97.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
97.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 14 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+27
97.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 27 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.0%
Miyan Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · -10 yds · 0:422% → 2%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tyler Hunt, broken up by Tyleik WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
98.0%
Walker III, Kenneth rush for 9 yards to the MICHIGANST34, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding 10 yards to the MICHIGANST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 20
OWN 15
0
98.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:26
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
98.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Harold Joiner, broken up by Tyreke SmithSimilar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+6
98.1%
Bryce Baringer punt for 48 yds , Jaxon Smith-Njigba returns for 6 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 11TD
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:0997% → 99%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+18
97.0%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 18 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
97.1%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Garrett WilsonSimilar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+3
94.6%
TreVeyon Henderson run for 3 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+8
98.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 8 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+16
98.4%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 16 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
98.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 12 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 1:261% → 1%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
98.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 7 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 3
OWN 30
-2
98.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 5:42
3RD & 5
OWN 28
0
98.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 5
OWN 28
+4
99.0%
Bryce Baringer punt for 61 yds , Jaxon Smith-Njigba returns for 4 yds to the OhSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:4399% → 99%
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+28
98.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jeremy Ruckert for 28 yds to the OhSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
98.8%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Miyan Williams for 4 yds to the OhSt 47Similar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+6
98.9%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Garrett Wilson for 6 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-8
99.1%
C.J. Stroud sacked by Maverick Hansen for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 45Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 18
OWN 45
+19
99.1%
Miyan Williams run for 19 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
99.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 15 yds to the MchSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
99.2%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Mitch Rossi for 5 yds Mitch Rossi fumbled, recovered by OhStSimilar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+5
99.3%
Garrett Wilson run for 5 yds to the MchSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
99.3%
Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q2 1:37
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
99.3%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 5 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:551% → 1%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
99.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 9 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 1:09
2ND & 1
OWN 35
0
99.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tyler HuntSimilar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+7
99.4%
Jordon Simmons run for 7 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
99.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q2 0:48
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
99.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie FosterSimilar
Q2 0:41
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
99.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie FosterSimilar
Q2 0:35
4TH & 10
OWN 42
0
99.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Smith-Njigba at the OhSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-1
99.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:161% → 0%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+46
99.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 46 yds to the OhSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-8
99.4%
Payton Thorne sacked by Haskell Garrett for a loss of 8 yards to the OhSt 38Similar
Q3 13:55
2ND & 18
OPP 38
+1
99.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the OhSt 37Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 17
OPP 37
-1
99.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 38Similar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 18
OPP 38
0
99.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 26 yds, downed at the OhSt 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 17MISSED FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 5:13100% → 100%
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-3
99.5%
Master Teague III run for a loss of 3 yards to the OhSt 9Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 13
OWN 9
+16
99.5%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 16 yds to the OhSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.5%
Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the OhSt 28Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+21
99.6%
Master Teague III run for 21 yds to the OhSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+10
99.6%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Miyan Williams for 10 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
99.6%
Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+13
99.7%
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Jaxon Smith-Njigba for 13 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.7%
C.J. Stroud pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
Q3 8:28
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+4
99.7%
Master Teague III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 6
OPP 18
-3
99.7%
C.J. Stroud sacked by Drew Beesley for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 21Similar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 9
OPP 21
+38
99.7%
Noah Ruggles 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 1:130% → 0%
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
99.8%
Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the MchSt 22Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 9
OWN 22
-1
99.8%
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 21Similar
Q3 6:01
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
99.8%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Christian FitzpatrickSimilar
Q3 5:47
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
99.8%
Bryce Baringer punt for 50 yds, downed at the OhSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 19INT
6 plays · 17 yds · 3:13100% → 100%
Q3 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
99.7%
Master Teague III run for 5 yds to the OhSt 34Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 5
OWN 34
+3
99.7%
Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+5
99.8%
Kyle McCord run for 5 yds to the OhSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
99.8%
Master Teague III run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 40Similar
Q3 3:10
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+6
99.8%
Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q3 2:27
3RD & 6
OWN 46
-10
99.8%
Kyle McCord pass intercepted Justin White return for 10 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:250% → 0%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the OhSt 46Similar
Q3 1:55
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Connor HeywardSimilar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 3 yds to the OhSt 43Similar
Q3 1:15
4TH & 2
OPP 43
+10
99.9%
Elijah Collins run for 10 yds to the OhSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
99.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 15 yds to the OhSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
99.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 6 yds to the OhSt 12Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+12
99.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 12 yds for a TD, (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:12100% → 100%
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Julian Fleming, broken up by Drew JordanSimilar
Q4 14:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.8%
Master Teague III run for a loss of 2 yards to the OhSt 23Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+9
99.8%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 9 yds to the OhSt 32Similar
Q4 13:40
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
99.8%
Jesse Mirco punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Cade McDonald at the MchSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:330% → 0%
Q4 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+16
99.9%
Elijah Collins run for 16 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
99.9%
Payton Thorne sacked by Tyleik Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 12:33
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+3
99.9%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 12:07
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie FosterSimilar
Q4 12:02
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
99.9%
Bryce Baringer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jaxon Smith-Njigba at the OhSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 23TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 8:28100% → 100%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.9%
Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the OhSt 31Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-1
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Gee Scott Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the OhSt 30Similar
Q4 10:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Sam Wiglusz for 5 yds to the OhSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Master Teague III run for 2 yds to the OhSt 37Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+4
99.9%
Kyle McCord run for 4 yds to the OhSt 41Similar
Q4 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+16
99.9%
Master Teague III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
99.9%
Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+10
99.9%
Master Teague III run for 10 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Julian FlemingSimilar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+9
99.9%
Master Teague III run for 9 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q4 6:05
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+3
99.9%
Master Teague III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
99.9%
Kyle McCord pass complete to Julian Fleming for 4 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 6
OPP 11
+4
99.9%
Master Teague III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q4 4:10
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+6
100.0%
Master Teague III run for 6 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
100.0%
Kyle McCord pass incomplete to Marvin Harrison Jr.Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
100.0%
Master Teague III run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:550% → 0%
Q4 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
100.0%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-2
100.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jordon Simmons for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 22Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+2
100.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 2 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 1:20
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
100.0%
Bryce Baringer punt for 74 yds, downed at the OhSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OSUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:43100% → 100%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
100.0%
Robert Cope run for 2 yds to the OhSt 4Similar
Q4 0:32
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+2
100.0%
Robert Cope run for 2 yds to the OhSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 14:05
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Julian Fleming for 4 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q1 2:31
C.J. Stroud pass complete to Chris Olave for 43 yds for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
+1.8
TD · Q2 10:02
Miyan Williams run for 1 yd for a TD, (Noah Ruggles KICK)
-1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com