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PSU

Penn State 27 at Michigan State 30

MSU
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:24 · Bryce Baringer punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior−2.6Home team on offense+7.0Garbage-time factor+3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.1Score differential+0.9Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:11: Jahan Dotson 30 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Jordan Stout Kick) — PSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 63%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:07: Daequan Hardy 17 Yd Interception Return (Jordan Stout PAT failed) — PSU win probability +13.8 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:14: Payton Thorne 1 Yd Run (Evan Johnson PAT failed) — MSU win probability +15.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:10: Jayden Reed 20 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Evan Johnson Kick) — MSU win probability +20.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:43: Parker Washington 15 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Jake Pinegar Kick) — PSU win probability +20.4 pts (now 26%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:10PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 47, down 7
    Close callPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:32MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:03PSU 4th & 1 at PSU 48, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.3%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:34MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 15, up 7
    Close callPunted · 50.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:19MSU 4th & 6 at PSU 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    47.6%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    46.9%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:59MSU 4th & 5 at PSU 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:56PSU 4th & 7 at MSU 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−1.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.5%
    89% to make
    Punt
    42.5%−7.0
    average punt
  8. Q3 11:56PSU 4th & 16 at PSU 46, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.5%−3.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:41MSU 4th & 3 at PSU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    43.6%−1.4
    58% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−9.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:19PSU 4th & 3 at MSU 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    40.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    37.0%−3.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    37.3%−2.9
    average punt
  11. Q4 12:43PSU 4th & 1 at MSU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    36.6%−2.9
    81% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−15.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:24MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.7%−5.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:10MSU 4th & 15 at PSU 20, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.8 ptsWent for it · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.6%−6.8
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    69.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    49.6%−19.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:02MSU 4th & 3 at PSU 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    91.6%−0.3
    72% to make
    Punt
    89.1%−2.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:08PSU 4th & 24 at PSU 9, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4PSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 11:22MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:09MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:37PSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:11PSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:07PSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:14MSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:10MSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:43PSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.1 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%−1.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    8.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 3:3334% → 37%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+13
33.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 13 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
34.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 36Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+3
34.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+40
34.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 40 yds to the PnSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
35.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+8
35.0%
Payton Thorne run for 8 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q1 12:15
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+11
35.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the PnSt 13 for a 1ST down PENN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (6 Yards) to the PnSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
35.7%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the PnSt 2Similar
Q1 11:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
37.0%
Kenneth Walker III 2 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0764% → 63%
Q1 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
36.4%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q1 11:14
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+8
36.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 8 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
36.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 47Similar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
37.2%
Jordan Stout punt for 52 yds, downed at the MchSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 99 yds · 4:0138% → 45%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+35
37.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 35 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
38.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 15 yds to the PnSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
39.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 14 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
39.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for no gain to the PnSt 35Similar
Q1 7:51
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
40.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q1 7:22
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+23
40.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 23 yds to the PnSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
40.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the PnSt 9Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
41.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q1 6:09
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
45.2%
Tre Mosley 9 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:2757% → 60%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
43.4%
Keyvone Lee run for 4 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q1 5:36
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+21
43.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 21 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
43.5%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-2
44.3%
Sean Clifford sacked by Drew Beesley and Maverick Hansen for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 4:05
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+18
45.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 18 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
40.4%
Jahan Dotson 27 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Jordan Stout Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:0543% → 43%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
42.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
42.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 2:28
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
42.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 5 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q1 1:32
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
43.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 45 yds, downed at the PnSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 2:2956% → 56%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
43.6%
Noah Cain run for no gain to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 0:57
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+18
44.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 18 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-3
43.3%
Sean Clifford run for a loss of 3 yards to the PnSt 36Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
44.8%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Jahan DotsonSimilar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+12
45.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 12 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q2 14:03
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
44.5%
Jordan Stout punt for 45 yds, downed at the MchSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:2945% → 45%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
45.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 12
0
46.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Connor HeywardSimilar
Q2 13:27
3RD & 5
OWN 12
+3
45.3%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q2 12:34
4TH & 2
OWN 15
0
45.4%
Bryce Baringer punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the MchSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 46 yds · 0:2356% → 63%
Q2 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
44.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Noah CainSimilar
Q2 12:28
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+16
44.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 16 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
37.3%
Jahan Dotson 30 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Jordan Stout Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9FG
18 plays · 70 yds · 6:1241% → 47%
Q2 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
41.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
41.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
40.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 11 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
42.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 10:44
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
42.4%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 10:08
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+19
41.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 19 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-2
44.6%
Harold Joiner run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+7
44.4%
Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 8:32
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+4
44.9%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 7:40
4TH & 1
OPP 30
-5
44.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 35Similar
Q2 7:19
4TH & 6
OPP 35
+19
43.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 19 yds to the PnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+11
46.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 11 yds to the PnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
46.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q2 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
46.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 10Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
46.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the PnSt 5Similar
Q2 6:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
45.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie FosterSimilar
Q2 5:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
47.2%
Matt Coghlin 22 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 10MISSED FG
12 plays · 61 yds · 4:5655% → 52%
Q2 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+33
45.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 33 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
43.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Keyvone LeeSimilar
Q2 5:11
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+9
43.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 9 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 4:42
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+3
43.4%
Devyn Ford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
42.6%
Devyn Ford run for 4 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q2 3:42
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+9
42.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 9 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
43.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q2 2:23
2ND & 5
OPP 7
0
43.0%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the MchSt 7Similar
Q2 1:46
3RD & 5
OPP 7
-2
43.7%
Sean Clifford sacked by Drew Beesley for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 9Similar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+27
47.6%
Jordan Stout 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:2849% → 49%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
49.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 0:28
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+4
49.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:5950% → 47%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
49.9%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 20Similar
Q3 14:29
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+14
50.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 14 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+18
49.7%
Keyvone Lee run for 18 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
47.3%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q3 12:46
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
47.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Parker WashingtonSimilar
Q3 12:42
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-8
48.4%
Sean Clifford sacked by Cal Haladay and Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 11:56
4TH & 16
OWN 46
0
53.1%
Jordan Stout punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13INT TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4952% → 38%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 7
0
52.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie FosterSimilar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 7
+3
51.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 7
OWN 10
-17
38.1%
Daequan Hardy 17 Yd Interception Return (Jordan Stout PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14TD
21 plays · 75 yds · 8:5340% → 62%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
39.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 27 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
44.0%
Elijah Collins run for 2 yds to the PnSt 46Similar
Q3 10:04
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+10
44.3%
Elijah Collins run for 10 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
44.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Connor HeywardSimilar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+1
44.6%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the PnSt 35Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 9
OPP 35
-5
44.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the PnSt 40Similar
Q3 8:25
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+11
40.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 11 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 7:41
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+5
42.3%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
46.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the PnSt 21Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 7
OPP 21
-15
47.0%
Walker III, Kenneth rush for loss of 2 yards to the PENNST23, PENALTY MICHIGANST personal foul 15 yards to the PENNST36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 22
OPP 36
+10
43.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 10 yds to the PnSt 26Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 12
OPP 26
+21
44.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 21 yds to the PnSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
47.4%
Walker III, Kenneth rush for 5 yards to the PENNST0, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding 10 yards to the PENNST15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
-4
45.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 19Similar
Q3 4:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 19
+6
45.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 6 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q3 3:48
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+11
43.0%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Reed, Jayden, PENALTY PENNST pass interference (Porter Jr., Joey) 11 yards to the PENNST2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q3 3:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
46.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the PnSt 1Similar
Q3 3:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
46.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the PnSt 1Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.7%
Payton Thorne 1 Yd Run (Evan Johnson PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15DOWNS
13 plays · 54 yds · 4:2643% → 43%
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
56.9%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 29Similar
Q3 1:29
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+7
58.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 7 yds to the PnSt 36Similar
Q3 0:52
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
56.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
55.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 12 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+7
53.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 7 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 40
0
52.5%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 3
OPP 40
0
54.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Theo JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:19
4TH & 3
OPP 40
+15
57.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 15 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
52.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q4 13:32
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
52.7%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Devyn FordSimilar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+6
54.9%
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 12:43
4TH & 1
OPP 16
0
57.2%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the MchSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 3:1965% → 65%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-5
64.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 11Similar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 15
OWN 11
+3
64.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 12
OWN 14
+6
64.0%
Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+7
63.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Harold Joiner for 7 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
67.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 11 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
69.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 9:37
2ND & 12
OWN 36
0
67.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie FosterSimilar
Q4 9:34
3RD & 12
OWN 36
0
66.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 12
OWN 36
0
65.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PnSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17FUMBLE
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:5541% → 42%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
59.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 9 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 1
OWN 49
0
56.4%
Keyvone Lee run for no gain to the PnSt 49Similar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 1
OWN 49
-1
57.8%
Keyvone Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 48 Keyvone Lee fumbled, forced by Cal Haladay, recovered by MchSt Drew BeesleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:1973% → 92%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
73.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 7:45
2ND & 2
OPP 40
0
73.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+25
72.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 25 yds to the PnSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
74.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the PnSt 12Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-8
76.5%
Jayden Reed run for a loss of 8 yards to the PnSt 20Similar
Q4 5:19
3RD & 15
OPP 20
0
73.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:10
4TH & 15
OPP 20
+20
91.9%
Jayden Reed 20 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Evan Johnson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19FUMBLE
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:0093% → 94%
Q4 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+4
93.3%
Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 6
OPP 25
0
93.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the PnSt 25Similar
Q4 4:11
3RD & 6
OPP 25
+3
93.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q4 4:02
4TH & 3
OPP 22
-1
94.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 20TD
13 plays · 77 yds · 3:196% → 26%
Q4 4:02
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
94.4%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:56
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
94.5%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Brenton StrangeSimilar
Q4 3:52
3RD & 10
OWN 23
-14
94.8%
Sean Clifford sacked by Brandon Wright for a loss of 14 yards to the PnSt 9 Sean Clifford fumbled, forced by Brandon Wright, recovered by PnSt Sean Clifford , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 24
OWN 9
+25
96.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Brenton Strange for 25 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
95.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 3 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+4
95.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 4 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+4
96.0%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
96.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 23 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
94.6%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 6 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+11
94.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 11 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
94.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to KeAndre Lambert-SmithSimilar
Q4 0:53
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
94.6%
Sean Clifford pass incomplete to Malick MeigaSimilar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
74.3%
Parker Washington 15 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Jake Pinegar Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0195% → 95%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
50
-1
94.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 0:42
2ND & 11
OWN 49
-2
95.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:10
Jayden Reed 20 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Evan Johnson Kick)
+20.6
TD · Q4 0:43
Parker Washington 15 Yd pass from Sean Clifford (Jake Pinegar Kick)
-20.4
TD · Q3 2:14
Payton Thorne 1 Yd Run (Evan Johnson PAT failed)
+15.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com