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MD

Maryland 21 at Michigan State 40

MSU
2021 · Week 11 · Nov 13, 2021 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:15 · Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:03: Peny Boone 4 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick) — MD win probability +6.3 pts (now 28%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 77%).
  2. TD · Q2 1:42: Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick) — MSU win probability +9.3 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:56: Chigoziem Okonkwo 32 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick) — MD win probability +11.4 pts (now 19%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:37: Jayden Reed 3 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Matt Coghlin Kick) — MSU win probability +7.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:33: Chigoziem Okonkwo 32 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick) — MD win probability +10.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5MD made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 12:06MD 4th & 5 at MD 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:42MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:50MD 4th & 10 at MSU 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.5%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    21.4%−<0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:01MD 4th & 10 at midfield, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:55MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 14, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:15MSU 4th & 1 at MD 5, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 78.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.0%
    67% to convert
    Field goal
    76.5%−1.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−5.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:26MD 4th & 10 at MD 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 1:55MSU 4th & 15 at MSU 29, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.1%−2.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:57MD 4th & 1 at MD 44, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.1%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 14:09MD 4th & 4 at MSU 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−4.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:44MD 4th & 1 at MSU 49, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.2%−0.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 7:31MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 47, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:18MD 4th & 16 at MD 37, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:29MD 4th & 12 at MSU 39, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    36% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 13:43MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:51MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    80.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:03MD Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:11MSU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:42MSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:56MD Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:37MSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:33MD Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:34MSU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    97.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:0475% → 75%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
74.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+27
74.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 12 yds to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Gereme Spraggins) to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
75.0%
Montorie Foster 52 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 1:3225% → 25%
Q1 13:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
74.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 22Similar
Q1 13:15
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+9
74.9%
Tagovailoa, Taulia pass incomplete to Fleet-Davis, Tayon, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Haladay, Cal) 9 yards to the MARYLAND31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARYLAND.Similar
Q1 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
74.9%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 2 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q1 12:52
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
74.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Tayon Fleet-DavisSimilar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+3
75.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 3 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q1 12:06
4TH & 5
OWN 36
0
75.1%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1475% → 75%
Q1 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-3
75.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 13Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 13
OWN 13
+4
75.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q1 10:54
3RD & 9
OWN 17
0
75.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q1 10:42
4TH & 9
OWN 17
0
74.9%
Bryce Baringer punt for 69 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 46 yds · 1:4525% → 25%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+8
75.1%
Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 2
OWN 22
+28
75.0%
Peny Boone run for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:44
1ST & 10
50
+7
74.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 7 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 3
OPP 43
+3
74.8%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
74.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Rakim JarrettSimilar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
74.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Marcus FlemingSimilar
Q1 8:58
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
74.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Corey DychesSimilar
Q1 8:50
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
75.2%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 26 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:5175% → 79%
Q1 8:42
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
75.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 11 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
75.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 7 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Tarheeb Still) to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
75.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 21 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:23
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
76.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 6:51
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+29
78.9%
Jayden Reed 29 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Stephen Rusnak PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 2:4423% → 22%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
77.4%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the Mary 26Similar
Q1 6:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+11
77.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 11 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
77.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 4 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+3
77.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 3 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+6
77.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:23
1ST & 10
50
0
77.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 10
50
0
77.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Rakim JarrettSimilar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 10
50
0
77.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Brian CobbsSimilar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 10
50
0
78.1%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:5979% → 80%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
79.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the MchSt 9Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+1
79.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 1 yd to the MchSt 10Similar
Q1 2:37
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+4
79.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 4 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q1 1:55
4TH & 5
OWN 14
+1
79.7%
Bryce Baringer punt for 63 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for 1 yd to the Mary 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:4421% → 28%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
78.8%
Peny Boone run for 1 yd to the Mary 25Similar
Q1 1:18
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
79.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Brian CobbsSimilar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+19
79.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 19 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
78.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 7 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 3
OPP 49
0
78.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Carlos Carriere, broken up by Chester KimbroughSimilar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+45
78.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 45 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
72.3%
Peny Boone 4 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9TD
16 plays · 59 yds · 6:4076% → 82%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
75.8%
Jordon Simmons run for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 1
50
+10
76.0%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Carr, Maliq, PENALTY MARYLAND holding (Cross, Nick) 10 yards to the MARYLAND40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q2 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
76.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 8 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 2
OPP 32
-4
76.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jordon Simmons for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+9
76.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 9 yds to the Mary 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
76.6%
Harold Joiner run for 1 yd to the Mary 26Similar
Q2 12:17
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+12
76.6%
Payton Thorne run for 12 yds to the Mary 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
76.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 7 yds to the Mary 7Similar
Q2 11:02
2ND & 3
OPP 7
0
76.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q2 10:55
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+2
76.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the Mary 5Similar
Q2 10:15
4TH & 1
OPP 5
+2
75.6%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the Mary 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
77.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 4Similar
Q2 8:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
77.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the Mary 2Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
83.1%
Connor Heyward 2 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
Q2 8:11
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+15
82.4%
MARYLAND Penalty, Roughing Passer (Lawtez Rogers) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:3918% → 17%
Q2 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Peny Boone for no gain to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
81.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Chigoziem OkonkwoSimilar
Q2 7:36
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
82.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Brian CobbsSimilar
Q2 7:26
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
83.3%
Colton Spangler punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
16 plays · 68 yds · 5:3684% → 95%
Q2 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
84.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 8
OWN 34
+5
84.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 15 yds to the MchSt 49 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Block (Connor Heyward) to the MchSt 39Similar
Q2 6:08
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+2
84.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 1
OWN 41
+2
83.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
84.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed, broken up by Jakorian BennettSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
84.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:30
3RD & 3
50
+17
84.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 17 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
85.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 21 yds to the Mary 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-5
85.2%
Thorne, Payton pass complete to Heyward, Connor for 7 yards to the MARYLAND5, PENALTY MICHIGANST ineligible downfield on pass (Samac, Nick) 5 yards to the MARYLAND17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 15
OPP 17
+12
85.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 12 yds to the Mary 5Similar
Q2 2:54
2ND & 3
OPP 5
-6
85.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 11Similar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 9
OPP 11
+9
85.5%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Reed, Jayden, PENALTY MARYLAND pass interference (Bennett, Jakorian) 9 yards to the MARYLAND2, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q2 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
86.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the Mary 1Similar
Q2 1:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.7%
Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 0:348% → 19%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
92.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 5 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+23
92.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Marcus Fleming for 23 yds to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+20
92.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 20 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
80.9%
Chigoziem Okonkwo 32 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13INT
9 plays · 41 yds · 0:4184% → 85%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
83.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 12 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+14
83.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 14 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
84.5%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Reed, Jayden (Bennett, Jakorian), PENALTY MARYLAND substitution infraction (Rogers, Lawtez) 5 yards to the MARYLAND47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:13
1ST & 5
OPP 47
0
84.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden Reed, broken up by Jordan MosleySimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 5
OPP 47
0
84.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre Mosley, broken up by Tarheeb StillSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 5
OPP 47
+5
83.9%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Offside (Demeioun Robinson) to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
84.8%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Reed, Jayden (Cross, Nick), PENALTY MARYLAND offside (Nasili-Kite, Mosiah) 5 yards to the MARYLAND37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 37
-45
84.7%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Nick Cross return for 45 yds to the Mary 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14INT
7 plays · 61 yds · 1:5516% → 18%
Q3 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
84.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 9 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+4
83.3%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 4 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+26
83.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 26 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
83.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 7 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+15
81.9%
Tagovailoa, Taulia pass incomplete to Okonkwo, Chigoziem, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Harvey, Noah) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MARYLAND.Similar
Q3 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-35
82.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass intercepted Noah Harvey return for 35 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 3:0687% → 96%
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
86.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 12 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-8
87.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Matt Allen) to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 18
OWN 40
+26
87.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 26 yds to the Mary 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+21
87.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 21 yds to the Mary 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+11
87.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 11 yds to the Mary 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
88.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 3Similar
Q3 9:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
88.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q3 9:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.8%
Jayden Reed 3 Yd pass from Payton Thorne (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16TD
4 plays · 64 yds · 0:445% → 16%
Q3 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
95.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 11 yds to the Mary 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
95.1%
Colby McDonald run for 21 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
84.5%
Chigoziem Okonkwo 32 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17FUMBLE
2 plays · 11 yds · 0:0088% → 88%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 11 yds Tyler Hunt fumbled, forced by Ami Finau, recovered by Mary Tarheeb Still , return for 8 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18MISSED FG
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:3116% → 13%
Q3 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
84.4%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 7:39
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+14
84.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 14 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+9
84.4%
Colby McDonald run for 9 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q3 7:01
2ND & 1
OPP 4
+2
84.5%
Colby McDonald run for 2 yds to the MchSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
84.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 5Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
84.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Rakim JarrettSimilar
Q3 5:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-18
85.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Xavier Henderson for a loss of 18 yards to the MchSt 23 MARYLAND Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Taulia Tagovailoa) to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 5:37
4TH & 0
OPP 23
+41
87.1%
Joseph Petrino 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 6 yds · 3:3689% → 90%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
89.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 6 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+2
89.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+3
89.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
90.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
90.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 5
OWN 39
-10
90.8%
Payton Thorne sacked by Sam Okuayinonu for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
Q3 1:55
4TH & 15
OWN 29
+4
90.0%
Bryce Baringer punt for 40 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for 4 yds to the Mary 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20DOWNS
9 plays · 9 yds · 2:4012% → 11%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
88.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 5 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
88.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Carlos Carriere, broken up by Ronald WilliamsSimilar
Q3 1:09
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+4
89.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 4 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q3 0:57
4TH & 1
OWN 44
+2
89.2%
Colby McDonald run for 2 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+24
88.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 9 yds to the MICHIGANST 45 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Maverick Hansen) to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-15
87.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Noah Harvey for a loss of 15 yards to the MchSt 45 MARYLAND Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Taulia Tagovailoa) to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 0:02
2ND & 25
OPP 45
+11
89.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 11 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 14
OPP 34
+10
89.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 10 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 14:09
4TH & 4
OPP 24
0
89.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Carlos Carriere, broken up by Ronald WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:2593% → 98%
Q4 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
93.2%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Jarvis, Kevin) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 20
OWN 14
+2
93.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q4 13:15
2ND & 18
OWN 16
+28
93.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 28 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+36
94.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 36 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
94.3%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the Mary 17 for a 1ST down MARYLAND Penalty, Personal Foul (Branden Jennings) to the Mary 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
94.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the Mary 3Similar
Q4 11:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
94.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the Mary 3Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.1%
Kenneth Walker III 3 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 29 yds · 1:343% → 3%
Q4 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+22
96.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 22 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
96.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Carlos Carriere, broken up by Noah HarveySimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+8
96.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:17
3RD & 2
50
+1
96.7%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 1 yd to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 1
OPP 49
-2
96.8%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:0499% → 99%
Q4 8:35
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
98.5%
Payton Thorne sacked by Ami Finau for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 8:05
2ND & 15
OWN 46
+1
98.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 14
OWN 47
0
98.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Keon ColemanSimilar
Q4 7:31
4TH & 14
OWN 47
+35
98.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the MICHIGANST 13 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Shift (-5 Yards) to the Mary 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24DOWNS
12 plays · 43 yds · 3:533% → 2%
Q4 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
97.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Colby McDonald for 6 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+7
97.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 7 yds to the Mary 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
97.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 12 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
97.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 8 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 6:03
2ND & 2
OPP 49
-14
97.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Jeff Pietrowski for a loss of 14 yards to the Mary 37 Taulia Tagovailoa fumbled, forced by Jeff Pietrowski, recovered by Mary Taulia Tagovailoa , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 5:29
3RD & 16
OWN 37
0
98.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:18
4TH & 16
OWN 37
+26
98.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 26 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
98.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
98.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 42 MARYLAND Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Taulia Tagovailoa) to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 4:20
3RD & 15
OPP 42
+8
98.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 8 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 7
OPP 34
-5
98.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Corey Dyches) to the MchSt 39Similar
Q4 3:29
4TH & 12
OPP 39
0
98.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Rakim JarrettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25END OF GAME
5 plays · 24 yds · 3:0999% → 100%
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
99.2%
Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 2:32
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+9
99.3%
Jordon Simmons run for 9 yds to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
99.4%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+7
99.4%
Elijah Collins run for 7 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q4 0:15
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+2
99.5%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:56
Chigoziem Okonkwo 32 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)
-11.4
TD · Q3 8:33
Chigoziem Okonkwo 32 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino Kick)
-10.6
TD · Q2 1:42
Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick)
+9.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com