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MSU

Michigan State 29 at Purdue 40

PUR
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · Ross-Ade Stadium
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Win probability · PUR
modelPUR aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playPUR scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:12 · Payton Thorne pass intercepted Dedrick Mackey return for no gain to the Prdue 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+28.0+14.00−14.0−28.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 154Home team on offense+17.3Garbage-time factor+4.6Score differential+8.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.8Pregame prior−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:50: Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 39 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK) — PUR win probability +8.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:04: Kenneth Walker III run for 14 yds for a TD, (Stephen Rusnak KICK) — MSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 37%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 12:19: Payton Thorne run for 32 yds for a TD, (Stephen Rusnak KICK) — MSU win probability +15.4 pts (now 54%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:31: King Doerue run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK) — PUR win probability +13.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: PUR has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 5:03: Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 11 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Maliq Carr for Two-Point Conversion) — MSU win probability +8.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
PUR made the numbers' call on 6 of 7MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 3:00PUR 4th & 19 at PUR 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.2%−1.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:51MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.8%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:10MSU 4th & 21 at PUR 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−2.0
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.4%
    64% to make
    Punt
    38.4%−4.0
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:43PUR 4th & 1 at PUR 45, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.6%−1.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:03MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:04MSU 4th & 2 at PUR 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.4%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    28.2%−0.3
    84% to make
    Punt
    23.6%−4.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:03MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−1.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:31PUR 4th & 10 at MSU 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%−1.5
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.3%
    86% to make
    Punt
    63.5%−8.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 5:16MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 30, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.6%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:19PUR 4th & 1 at MSU 37, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    77.4%−2.8
    40% to make
    Punt
    77.2%−3.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:02PUR 4th & 7 at MSU 7, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 83.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    75.7%−6.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 9:12MSU 4th & 4 at PUR 9, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%−0.7
    43% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%
    89% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−5.4
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:48PUR 4th & 6 at MSU 6, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    89.9%−4.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:41PUR 4th & 4 at MSU 5, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%
    92% to make
    Punt
    93.2%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
PUR made the numbers' call on 4 of 4MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 9:12PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:23MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:23PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:50PUR Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:04MSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:19MSU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:31PUR Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:03MSU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    9.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    8.5%−0.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1FUMBLE
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:0653% → 53%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
46.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 14:23
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+28
46.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 28 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
50
0
46.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q1 13:41
2ND & 10
50
+8
47.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 8 yds to the Prdue 42Similar
Q1 13:15
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+4
47.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
47.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the Prdue 38 Kenneth Walker III fumbled, forced by George Karlaftis, recovered by Prdue George KarlaftisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 2TD
9 plays · 62 yds · 3:2448% → 51%
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+14
47.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Milton Wright for 14 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-2
47.9%
Zander Horvath run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 12
50
+6
47.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 6 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 11:04
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+13
48.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Milton Wright for 13 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
48.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 14 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
48.6%
Jackson Anthrop run for 11 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
48.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Elijah BallSimilar
Q1 9:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
48.8%
Jackson Anthrop run for 1 yd to the MchSt 5Similar
Q1 9:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
51.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 5 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:3750% → 52%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.3%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 8:34
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
50.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 8:05
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
51.0%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete, PENALTY PURDUE pass interference (Brown, Jamari) 10 yards to the MICHIGANST40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+35
50.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 35 yds to the Prdue 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-3
50.1%
Tre Mosley run for a loss of 3 yards to the Prdue 28Similar
Q1 6:52
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+2
50.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q1 6:23
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+26
47.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 26 yds for a TD, (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 3:0649% → 48%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
48.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Garrett Miller for 5 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q1 5:43
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+11
48.9%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 11 yds to the Prdue 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
49.5%
Jackson Anthrop run for 1 yd to the Prdue 41Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
49.5%
Zander Horvath run for no gain to the Prdue 41Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 9
OWN 41
-10
49.1%
Aidan O'Connell sacked by Jeff Pietrowski for a loss of 10 yards to the Prdue 31Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 19
OWN 31
+3
48.3%
Jack Ansell punt for 48 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 3 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:0551% → 50%
Q1 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
49.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+1
48.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Christian Fitzpatrick for 1 yd to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
49.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q1 1:51
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+4
49.7%
Bryce Baringer punt for 47 yds , Jackson Anthrop returns for 4 yds to the Prdue 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 6TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 3:2450% → 58%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
49.9%
Jackson Anthrop run for 3 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
50.2%
King Doerue run for 3 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q1 0:42
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+16
50.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Garrett Miller for 16 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
51.7%
King Doerue run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+1
51.1%
King Doerue run for 1 yd to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 14:33
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+42
50.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 42 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-2
52.5%
Jackson Anthrop run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 8Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
58.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Broc Thompson for 8 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7MISSED FG
11 plays · 49 yds · 3:0544% → 41%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+29
56.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 29 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
54.6%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the Prdue 46Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
54.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 9 yds to the Prdue 37Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
54.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the Prdue 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
54.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 19 yds to the Prdue 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
54.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q2 11:10
2ND & 10
OPP 15
-15
54.1%
Walker III, Kenneth rush for 4 yards to the PURDUE11, PENALTY MICHIGANST illegal block 15 yards to the PURDUE30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:46
2ND & 25
OPP 30
+4
55.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the Prdue 26Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 21
OPP 26
0
57.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q2 10:10
4TH & 21
OPP 26
+43
58.7%
Stephen Rusnak 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:2259% → 61%
Q2 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
58.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Milton WrightSimilar
Q2 10:01
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+6
58.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Garrett Miller for 6 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & 4
OWN 32
+4
58.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 4 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
60.1%
Zander Horvath run for 4 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+5
61.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to TJ Sheffield for 5 yds to the Prdue 45Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
61.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to TJ SheffieldSimilar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
60.8%
Jack Ansell punt for 25 yds, downed at the MchSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 1:3440% → 38%
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
59.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 10
OWN 30
-2
60.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 6:53
3RD & 12
OWN 28
+5
61.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 5 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 6:11
4TH & 7
OWN 33
-5
61.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Motion (Justin White) to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 6:03
4TH & 12
OWN 28
+14
62.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 37 yds , TJ Sheffield returns for 14 yds to the Prdue 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 10TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 1:0764% → 73%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
63.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Zander Horvath for 2 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q2 5:26
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+10
64.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 10 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
64.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to David BellSimilar
Q2 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+39
72.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 39 yds for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
15 plays · 69 yds · 3:3730% → 37%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
70.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 30Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+12
70.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 12 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
70.4%
Payton Thorne run for 10 yds to the Prdue 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
69.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 12 yds to the Prdue 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
70.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the Prdue 33Similar
Q2 2:19
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+1
69.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the Prdue 32Similar
Q2 1:59
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+10
71.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 10 yds to the Prdue 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
69.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the Prdue 18Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+4
70.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the Prdue 14Similar
Q2 1:09
3RD & 2
OPP 14
0
72.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+14
63.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 14 yds for a TD, (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 12END OF HALF
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:5866% → 68%
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
65.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Garrett Miller for 1 yd to the Prdue 26Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
65.6%
Zander Horvath run for 8 yds to the Prdue 34Similar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
66.1%
Zander Horvath run for 4 yds to the Prdue 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
67.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Garrett Miller for 21 yds to the PURDUE 41 PURDUE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Garrett Miller) to the Prdue 44Similar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
66.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Zander Horvath for 3 yds to the Prdue 47Similar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+11
67.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 11 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:3166% → 67%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
65.5%
Zander Horvath run for no gain to the Prdue 24Similar
Q3 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+5
65.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 5 yds to the Prdue 29Similar
Q3 13:52
3RD & 5
OWN 29
+5
65.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 5 yds to the Prdue 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
66.6%
Zander Horvath run for 7 yds to the Prdue 41 Zander Horvath fumbled, forced by Jeff Pietrowski, recovered by MchSt Darius SnowSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 41 yds · 0:5638% → 54%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
61.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 5 yds to the Prdue 36Similar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+4
61.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the Prdue 32Similar
Q3 12:19
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+32
46.3%
Payton Thorne run for 32 yds for a TD, (Stephen Rusnak KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 15TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:3953% → 72%
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
53.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Milton Wright for 16 yds to the Prdue 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:53
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+21
56.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Broc Thompson for 6 yds to the PURDUE 48 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Chester Kimbrough) to the MchSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
58.1%
O'Connell, Aidan pass sacked for loss of 3 yards to the MICHIGANST36 (Barrow, Simeon;Panasiuk, Jacub), PENALTY MICHIGANST personal foul (Barrow, Simeon) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST18, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN PURDUE.Similar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
58.1%
King Doerue run for 3 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+8
58.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Broc Thompson for 8 yds to the MchSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
58.4%
King Doerue run for no gain to the MchSt 7Similar
Q3 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
58.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 6 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
Q3 9:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
72.0%
King Doerue run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2433% → 30%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 8:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
67.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 8:09
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
68.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie FosterSimilar
Q3 8:03
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
69.8%
Bryce Baringer punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Prdue 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 17FG
7 plays · 51 yds · 1:2973% → 76%
Q3 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
73.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to TJ SheffieldSimilar
Q3 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+1
73.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to King Doerue for 1 yd to the Prdue 38Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+50
72.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 50 yds to the MchSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
76.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to David BellSimilar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 12
0
76.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to TJ SheffieldSimilar
Q3 6:35
3RD & 10
OPP 12
0
75.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to David BellSimilar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 10
OPP 12
+29
76.4%
Mitchell Fineran 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0924% → 22%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
75.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Connor HeywardSimilar
Q3 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
75.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 5:44
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
77.3%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
78.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 37 yds, fair catch by TJ Sheffield at the Prdue 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 19FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 7:0978% → 91%
Q3 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
78.0%
Zander Horvath run for 1 yd to the Prdue 34Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+6
78.7%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Garrett Miller for 6 yds to the Prdue 40Similar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+14
79.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Garrett Miller for 14 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
81.0%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 7 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q3 2:53
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+1
81.3%
Zander Horvath run for 1 yd to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+1
81.3%
Austin Burton run for 1 yd to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+9
80.5%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 9 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
83.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to King Doerue for 13 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
84.3%
King Doerue run for 6 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+5
84.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Garrett Miller for 5 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
84.1%
King Doerue run for no gain to the MchSt 4Similar
Q4 13:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-3
84.8%
Aidan O'Connell sacked by Drew Jordan for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 7Similar
Q4 13:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
84.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Garrett MillerSimilar
Q4 13:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
91.4%
Mitchell Fineran 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20INT
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:4511% → 11%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.4%
Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
88.5%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 11:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+11
89.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 11 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
88.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 4 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+13
88.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 13 yds to the Prdue 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:36
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+28
89.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 28 yds to the Prdue 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
88.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the Prdue 14Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+5
88.3%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the Prdue 9Similar
Q4 9:18
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
89.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 4
OPP 9
0
89.1%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Dedrick Mackey return for no gain to the Prdue 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 21FG
12 plays · 93 yds · 2:2494% → 97%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
94.1%
PURDUE Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Dedrick Mackey) to the Prdue 1Similar
Q4 9:06
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+17
94.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 17 yds to the Prdue 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
94.9%
King Doerue run for 6 yds to the Prdue 24Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+16
95.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Zander Horvath for 16 yds to the Prdue 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
96.1%
Zander Horvath run for 1 yd to the Prdue 41Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+53
96.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to David Bell for 53 yds to the MchSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to Milton WrightSimilar
Q4 6:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.2%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to David BellSimilar
Q4 6:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:48
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
97.3%
Mitchell Fineran 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 1:384% → 14%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
95.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 15 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+33
95.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 33 yds to the Prdue 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+32
95.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 32 yds to the Prdue 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:45
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-15
94.0%
Walker III, Kenneth rush for loss of 2 yards to the PURDUE5, PENALTY MICHIGANST personal foul (Duplain, J.D.) 15 yards to the PURDUE18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:33
1ST & 0
OPP 18
+7
94.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 7 yds to the Prdue 11Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
86.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 11 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Maliq Carr for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PURDrive 23FG
12 plays · 76 yds · 4:0694% → 97%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+46
94.1%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to King Doerue for 46 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
95.4%
Aidan O'Connell pass incomplete to David BellSimilar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
95.3%
Aidan O'Connell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:05
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+10
94.8%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Milton Wright for 10 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
96.1%
King Doerue run for 7 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+7
96.6%
Aidan O'Connell pass complete to Jackson Anthrop for 7 yds to the MchSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
96.3%
King Doerue run for 5 yds to the MchSt 6Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+1
96.3%
King Doerue run for 1 yd to the MchSt 5Similar
Q4 1:24
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
97.3%
King Doerue run for no gain to the MchSt 5Similar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
97.4%
Mitchell Fineran 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:293% → 3%
Q4 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
97.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 13 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-9
97.1%
Payton Thorne sacked by DaMarcus Mitchell for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 19
OWN 29
-5
97.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Blake Bueter) to the MchSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:19
Payton Thorne run for 32 yds for a TD, (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
-15.4
TD · Q3 9:31
King Doerue run for 1 yd for a TD, (Mitchell Fineran KICK)
+13.5
TD · Q2 1:04
Kenneth Walker III run for 14 yds for a TD, (Stephen Rusnak KICK)
-8.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com