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YSU

Youngstown State 14 at Michigan State 42

MSU
2021 · Week 2 · Sep 11, 2021 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadYSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreYSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 0:37 · punt blocked by blocked by
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 40Pregame prior+39.3Home team on offense+6.0Score differential+3.1Blowout margin−0.3Garbage-time factor+2.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:52: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 85 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +1.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:12: Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 20 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:10: Demeatric Crenshaw run for 6 yds for a TD (Colten McFadden KICK) — YSU win probability +2.0 pts (now 3%) (top driver: YSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:54: Christian Turner run for 26 yds for a TD (Colten McFadden KICK) — YSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 3%) (top driver: YSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:32: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 16 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +1.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5YSU made the numbers' call on 10 of 11
  1. Q1 12:33YSU 4th & 15 at YSU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:43MSU 4th & 8 at MSU 43, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:55YSU 4th & 3 at YSU 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.9%−<0.1
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:33YSU 4th & 12 at YSU 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:37MSU 4th & 7 at MSU 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.0%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:03YSU 4th & 5 at YSU 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:10YSU 4th & 1 at MSU 6, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    69% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%−0.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    -1.8%−3.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00YSU 4th & 2 at MSU 35, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    1.1%−0.2
    45% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:43MSU 4th & 5 at YSU 32, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.9%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.9%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:39YSU 4th & 7 at YSU 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.0%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:05YSU 4th & 9 at YSU 36, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:17MSU 4th & 12 at midfield, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00YSU 4th & 1 at YSU 34, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:52YSU 4th & 4 at YSU 42, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:20MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 38, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:14YSU 4th & 2 at YSU 39, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6YSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 14:50MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:54MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:52MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:12MSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:10YSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:17MSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:54YSU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 4:32MSU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
95.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 75 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 2:174% → 5%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
95.6%
Demeatric Crenshaw sacked by Xavier Henderson for 0 yards to the YngSt 21Similar
Q1 14:50
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
95.6%
Jaleel McLaughlin run for 5 yds to the YngSt 26Similar
Q1 14:50
3RD & 9
OWN 26
-5
95.6%
YOUNGSTOWN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the YngSt 21Similar
Q1 14:50
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-1
95.6%
Jaleel McLaughlin run for a loss of 1 yard to the YngSt 20Similar
Q1 12:33
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
95.4%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5095% → 95%
Q1 12:33
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
95.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
95.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:33
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
95.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:43
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
95.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 53 yds, downed at the YngSt 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:485% → 5%
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
95.2%
Jaleel McLaughlin run for 4 yds to the YngSt 8Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 6
OWN 8
0
95.2%
YOUNGSTOWN ST Penalty, False Start ( Yards) to the YngSt 4Similar
Q1 11:43
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+7
95.2%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 7 yds to the YngSt 11Similar
Q1 11:43
3RD & 3
OWN 11
0
95.2%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:55
4TH & 3
OWN 11
+18
95.0%
Paddy Lynch punt for 42 yds for a 1ST down , Jayden Reed returns for 18 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 58 yds · 2:0195% → 95%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
95.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 24 yds to the YngSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
95.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 8 yds to the YngSt 26Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+11
95.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 11 yds to the YngSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
95.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the YngSt 10Similar
Q1 9:55
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
95.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
95.4%
Payton Thorne run for 10 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 6PUNT
10 plays · 20 yds · 7:545% → 6%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
95.2%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass complete to Andrew Ogletree for 5 yds to the YngSt 30Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
95.2%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 4 yds to the YngSt 34Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
95.2%
Jaleel McLaughlin run for 2 yds to the YngSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
95.2%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
95.2%
MCLAUGHLIN, Jaleel rush to the left for no gain to the YSU36 (HALADAY, Cal). PENALTY MSU Offsides enforced 5 yards from the YSU36 to the YSU41 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
95.1%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass complete to C.J. Charleston for 6 yds to the YngSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 7
50
0
95.2%
Demeatric Crenshaw sacked by Jeff Pietrowski for 0 yards to the YngSt 45Similar
Q1 3:33
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
95.0%
Paddy Lynch punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
94.4%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 8 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
-5
94.3%
Jaleel McLaughlin run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 27 yds · 2:5695% → 95%
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
95.2%
Jordon Simmons run for 24 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
95.3%
SIMMONS, Jordon rush to the left for a gain of 11 yards to the YSU45 (DIXON, Grant). PENALTY MSU Holding on HORST, Jarrett enforced 10 yards from the MSU44 to the MSU34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 3:33
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+10
95.2%
Jordon Simmons run for 10 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-11
95.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-11 Yards) to the MchSt 32Similar
Q1 3:33
2ND & 21
OWN 33
+7
95.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 7 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 3:33
3RD & 14
OWN 40
+7
95.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 7 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q1 0:37
4TH & 7
OWN 47
0
94.9%
punt blocked by blocked bySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 8INT
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:016% → 6%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
94.3%
Christian Turner run for no gain to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+1
94.4%
Samuel St. Surin run for 1 yd to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+16
94.5%
Christian Turner run for 16 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Targeting on BRANTLEY, Charles ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
94.0%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass intercepted return for no gain to the MchSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9TD
3 plays · 98 yds · 1:0795% → 97%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
94.8%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+8
94.8%
Jordon Simmons run for 8 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
96.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 85 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 12:523% → 3%
Q2 12:52
3RD & 5
OWN 18
0
96.7%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:52
2ND & 5
OWN 18
0
96.7%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:03
4TH & 5
OWN 18
0
96.8%
Paddy Lynch punt for 34 ydsSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
97.3%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 5 yds to the YngSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
4 plays · 52 yds · 1:5197% → 98%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+9
96.9%
Elijah Collins run for 9 yds to the YngSt 43Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 1
OPP 43
+16
96.9%
Elijah Collins run for 16 yds to the YngSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
96.9%
Elijah Collins run for 7 yds to the YngSt 20Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+20
98.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Elijah Collins for 20 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 12DOWNS TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 6:022% → 3%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.4%
Jaleel McLaughlin run for 1 yd to the YngSt 26Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
98.4%
Jaleel McLaughlin run for 6 yds to the YngSt 32Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
98.3%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass complete to C.J. Charleston for 4 yds to the YngSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
98.3%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 1 yd to the YngSt 37Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+6
98.3%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 6 yds to the YngSt 43Similar
Q2 10:12
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+30
98.2%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass complete to Jaleel McLaughlin for 30 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
98.1%
Jaleel McLaughlin run for 8 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q2 10:12
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+4
98.0%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 4 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
98.8%
Christian Turner run for 6 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 4
OPP 9
0
98.7%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for no gain to the MchSt 9Similar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+3
98.8%
Jaleel McLaughlin run for 3 yds to the MchSt 6Similar
Q2 4:10
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+6
96.8%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 6 yds for a TD (Colten McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 68 yds · 3:4798% → 99%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
97.5%
Jordon Simmons run for 8 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+5
97.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 5 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
97.6%
Jordon Simmons run for 12 yds to the YngSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
97.6%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the YngSt 38Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 5
OPP 38
0
97.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+9
97.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 9 yds to the YngSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
97.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 8 yds to the YngSt 21Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 2
OPP 21
-1
97.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 1 yard to the YngSt 22Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+12
97.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 12 yds to the YngSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
97.9%
Payton Thorne run for 4 yds to the YngSt 6Similar
Q2 0:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 6 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.1%
Jaleel McLaughlin run for 1 yd to the YngSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:061% → 3%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
99.1%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 9 yds to the YngSt 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.0%
Jaleel McLaughlin run for 2 yds to the YngSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
99.1%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
99.1%
Jaleel McLaughlin run for 5 yds to the YngSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
-10
99.0%
YOUNGSTOWN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the YngSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.0%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
99.0%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass complete to Samuel St. Surin for 6 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+2
98.8%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 2 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+9
98.8%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 9 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
97.3%
Christian Turner run for 26 yds for a TD (Colten McFadden KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16MISSED FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:1198% → 98%
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.9%
Jordon Simmons run for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+14
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 14 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
98.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 8 yds to the YngSt 45Similar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+8
98.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 8 yds to the YngSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
98.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:54
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-2
98.1%
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 2 yards to the YngSt 39Similar
Q3 10:54
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+7
98.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 7 yds to the YngSt 32Similar
Q3 7:43
4TH & 5
OPP 32
+50
97.9%
Matt Coghlin 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:042% → 2%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
97.9%
Jaleel McLaughlin run for 3 yds to the YngSt 35Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
97.8%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
97.9%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:39
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+30
98.0%
Nick DeSalvo punt for 40 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 30 yds to the YngSt 45Similar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
98.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 2:0798% → 100%
Q3 6:39
1ST & 15
50
+5
98.2%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the YngSt 45Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
98.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 10
OPP 45
+15
98.2%
YOUNGSTOWN ST Penalty, Face mask (15 yards) (Zaire Jones) to the YngSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
98.2%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the YngSt 23Similar
Q3 6:39
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+7
98.2%
Jordon Simmons run for 7 yds to the YngSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
99.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 16 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:270% → 0%
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
99.8%
London Pearson run for 2 yds to the YngSt 27Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
99.8%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+8
99.8%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass complete to Andrew Ogletree for 8 yds to the YngSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
99.8%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass complete to Christian Turner for 2 yds to the YngSt 37Similar
Q3 4:32
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-7
99.7%
London Pearson run for a loss of 7 yards to the YngSt 30Similar
Q3 4:32
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+6
99.8%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass complete to Jorge Portorreal for 6 yds to the YngSt 36Similar
Q3 2:05
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
99.9%
Nick DeSalvo punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:48100% → 100%
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
99.8%
Jordon Simmons run for 6 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+16
99.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Montorie Foster for 16 yds to the YngSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.8%
Anthony Russo pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 48
-5
99.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 47Similar
Q3 2:05
2ND & 15
OWN 47
+3
99.8%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 2:05
3RD & 12
50
0
99.8%
Anthony Russo pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:17
4TH & 12
50
0
99.8%
Bryce Baringer punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 29 yds · 3:250% → 0%
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
99.9%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
99.9%
London Pearson run for 4 yds to the YngSt 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 17
+8
99.9%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass complete to C.J. Charleston for 8 yds to the YngSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.9%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 5 yds to the YngSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
99.9%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 4 yds to the YngSt 34Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
99.9%
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 2 yds to the YngSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
99.9%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass complete to Randy Smith for 6 yds to the YngSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Christian Turner run for no gain to the YngSt 42Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Demeatric Crenshaw pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 4
OWN 42
+42
99.9%
Nick DeSalvo punt for 42 yds , Cade McDonald returns for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22FUMBLE
15 plays · 84 yds · 6:46100% → 100%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
99.9%
Jordon Simmons run for 9 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+5
99.9%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
99.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 6 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+2
99.9%
Donovan Eaglin run for 2 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 2
OWN 37
+1
99.9%
Anthony Russo run for 1 yd to the MchSt 38Similar
Q4 11:20
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+2
99.9%
Anthony Russo run for 2 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
99.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Ian Stewart for 8 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+3
99.9%
Donovan Eaglin run for 3 yds to the YngSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
99.9%
Donovan Eaglin run for 14 yds to the YngSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
99.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Trenton Gillison for 5 yds to the YngSt 30Similar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 5
OPP 30
+11
99.9%
Donovan Eaglin run for 11 yds to the YngSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
2ND & 2
OPP 11
+1
99.9%
Donovan Eaglin run for 1 yd to the YngSt 10Similar
Q4 11:20
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+2
99.9%
Donovan Eaglin run for 2 yds to the YngSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+8
99.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 8 yds to the YngSt 11Similar
Q4 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.9%
Anthony Russo run for 7 yds to the YngSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
YSUDrive 23END OF 4TH QUARTER
14 plays · 72 yds · 5:060% → 0%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
100.0%
London Pearson run for 5 yds to the YngSt 6Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+1
100.0%
London Pearson run for 1 yd to the YngSt 7Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 4
OWN 7
+12
100.0%
Joe Craycraft pass complete to Tre Radford for 12 yds to the YngSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+7
99.9%
Joe Craycraft pass complete to Luke Hensley for 7 yds to the YngSt 26Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 3
OWN 26
+5
99.9%
London Pearson run for 5 yds to the YngSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
99.9%
London Pearson run for 2 yds to the YngSt 33Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Joe Craycraft pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+6
100.0%
Joe Craycraft pass complete to Luke Hensley for 6 yds to the YngSt 39Similar
Q4 1:14
4TH & 2
OWN 39
+3
100.0%
Joe Craycraft run for 3 yds to the YngSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Joe Craycraft pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+9
100.0%
Joe Craycraft pass complete to Josh Burgett for 9 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+7
100.0%
Joe Craycraft pass complete to Luke Hensley for 7 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+15
100.0%
Joe Craycraft pass complete to Luke Hensley for 15 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
100.0%
Joe Craycraft pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:10
Demeatric Crenshaw run for 6 yds for a TD (Colten McFadden KICK)
-2
TD · Q2 12:52
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 85 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+1.9
TD · Q3 10:54
Christian Turner run for 26 yds for a TD (Colten McFadden KICK)
-1.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com