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MSU

Michigan State 38 at Miami 17

MIA
2021 · Week 3 · Sep 18, 2021 · Hard Rock Stadium
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Win probability · MIA
modelMIA aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMIA scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 0:25 · Bryce Baringer punt for 51 yds , Tyrique Stevenson returns for 4 yds to the MiaFl 40 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MiaFl 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Pregame prior+5.6Home team on offense−4.9Score differential−3.3Garbage-time factor−0.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:08: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +15.4 pts (now 68%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 3:53: D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 14 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK) — MIA win probability +20.2 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  3. TD · Q4 13:10: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 10 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +18.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 8:11: Andres Borregales 55 yd FG GOOD — MIA win probability +11.5 pts (now 31%) (top driver: MIA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:12: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 39 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +12.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MIA made the numbers' call on 8 of 9MSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 9:32MSU 4th & 11 at MSU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:07MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 19, tied
    Close callPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:01MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.5%−0.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:39MIA 4th & 5 at MIA 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:58MSU 4th & 3 at MIA 6, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.5%−0.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    31.6%−3.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:08MIA 4th & 2 at MSU 3, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.4%
    49% to convert
    Field goal
    63.2%−1.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    58.6%−5.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:07MSU 4th & 8 at MIA 22, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.0%−0.4
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    29.0%−3.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:10MIA 4th & 10 at MSU 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.4%−0.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    65.0%−3.9
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:37MSU 4th & 24 at MSU 48, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.1%−1.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00MIA 4th & 2 at MSU 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    57.6%−3.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    59.2%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:09MSU 4th & 19 at MSU 35, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−3.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:07MIA 4th & 9 at MIA 37, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%−1.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:25MSU 4th & 13 at MSU 36, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−4.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:30MIA 4th & 1 at MSU 42, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    15.4%−4.3
    30% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−3.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:11MIA 4th & 9 at MSU 37, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.0%
    40% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−1.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:25MSU 4th & 1 at MIA 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.9%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    80.8%−4.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    80.8%−4.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:18MIA 4th & 4 at MIA 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MIA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q2 10:08MIA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:56MSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:08MSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 3:53MIA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:10MSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:12MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.8
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:32MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MIADrive 1FUMBLE
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:0972% → 72%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
71.6%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+14
71.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 14 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
71.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 2 yds to the MiaFl 38Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
71.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q1 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+5
71.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 5 yds to the MiaFl 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+13
71.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 13 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+10
71.5%
D'Eriq King run for 10 yds to the MchSt 29 D'Eriq King fumbled, forced by Jeff Pietrowski, recovered by MchSt Quavaris CrouchSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:3829% → 29%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
71.1%
Jayden Reed run for 9 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+5
70.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-8
70.8%
Payton Thorne sacked by Waynmon Steed for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 18
OWN 35
+1
70.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 36Similar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 17
OWN 36
+6
70.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 6 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 11
OWN 42
+5
70.8%
Bryce Baringer punt for 57 yds , Tyrique Stevenson returns for 5 yds to the MiaFl 47 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (5 Yards) to the MiaFl 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2571% → 70%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 1
-1
70.7%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-1 Yards) to the MiaFl 1Similar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+9
70.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brinson for 9 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q1 8:58
2ND & 2
OWN 10
+3
70.5%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-6
70.4%
D'Eriq King sacked by Drew Beesley for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 16
OWN 7
+5
70.1%
D'Eriq King run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 12Similar
Q1 7:37
3RD & 11
OWN 12
+7
69.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 7 yds to the MiaFl 19Similar
Q1 7:07
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
69.6%
Lou Hedley punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:4930% → 30%
Q1 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
69.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 38Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-9
69.5%
Payton Thorne sacked by Chantz Williams for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 18
OWN 29
+4
70.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q1 5:01
4TH & 14
OWN 33
0
70.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tyrique Stevenson at the MiaFl 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5670% → 69%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
69.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 4 yds to the MiaFl 23Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+1
69.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
69.0%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q1 3:39
4TH & 5
OWN 24
0
68.7%
Lou Hedley punt for 55 yds, downed at the MchSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6FG
14 plays · 73 yds · 4:2731% → 35%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
69.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 7 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 2:55
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+13
68.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 13 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
67.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+9
67.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 1
50
+26
67.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 26 yds to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
66.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+2
66.6%
Tre Mosley run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q1 0:08
3RD & 8
OPP 22
+9
66.9%
Payton Thorne run for 9 yds to the MiaFl 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
66.1%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (AJ Arcuri) to the MiaFl 18Similar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+10
66.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q2 14:41
2ND & 5
OPP 8
0
66.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 14:20
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+2
66.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 6Similar
Q2 13:58
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+23
65.1%
Matt Coghlin 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 7TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4266% → 70%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
65.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 9 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
66.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+21
66.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 21 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
67.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for no gain to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+3
67.1%
D'Eriq King run for 3 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+28
66.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 28 yds to the MchSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
67.5%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 9 yds to the MchSt 2Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 1
OPP 2
-1
67.5%
D'Eriq King run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 3Similar
Q2 10:14
3RD & 2
OPP 3
0
66.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Elijah ArroyoSimilar
Q2 10:08
4TH & 2
OPP 3
+3
70.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 3 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8MISSED FG
6 plays · 68 yds · 0:3830% → 32%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+66
69.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 51 yds to the MIAMI 39 for a 1ST down MIAMI FL Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the MiaFl 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
66.3%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 22Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
66.2%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
67.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 9:07
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+39
68.5%
Matt Coghlin 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 9MISSED FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 2:4570% → 71%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
69.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 14 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+27
70.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Mike Harley for 27 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
71.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 9 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+5
72.6%
Harris, Cam'Ron rush for 5 yards to the MICHIGANST23, PENALTY MICHIGANST substitution infraction 5 yards to the MICHIGANST23, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
72.6%
King, D'Eriq pass incomplete to Smith, Key'Shawn, PENALTY MICHIGANST pass interference (Kimbrough, Chester) 15 yards to the MICHIGANST8, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q2 7:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-3
72.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 11Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
72.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q2 6:46
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
-10
71.9%
King, D'Eriq rush for 5 yards to the MICHIGANST6, PENALTY MIAMI holding 10 yards to the MICHIGANST21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+11
71.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 11 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q2 6:10
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
70.9%
Andres Borregales 27 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:0831% → 43%
Q2 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
69.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
69.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 12 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
68.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 4 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+25
68.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 25 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
66.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+28
65.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 28 yds to the MiaFl 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
65.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q2 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
65.1%
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaFl 7Similar
Q2 2:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
56.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 7 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 11INT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:1260% → 60%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
59.5%
Smith, Brashard rush for 9 yards to the MIAMI34, PENALTY MIAMI personal foul (Gaynor, Corey) 12 yards to the MIAMI13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 22
OWN 13
+1
59.0%
D'Eriq King run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 14Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+17
58.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 17 yds to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q2 1:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+7
58.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 7 yds to the MiaFl 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
60.2%
D'Eriq King pass intercepted Angelo Grose return for no gain to the MchSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:3843% → 41%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+16
56.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 16 yds to the MchSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
55.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+15
55.1%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete to Nailor, Jalen, PENALTY MIAMI roughing passer 15 yards to the MIAMI38, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
53.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 5 yards to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q2 0:54
2ND & 15
OPP 43
0
56.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Terry Lockett Jr.Similar
Q2 0:46
3RD & 15
OPP 43
-9
57.3%
Payton Thorne sacked by Corey Flagg Jr. for a loss of 9 yards to the MchSt 48Similar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 24
OWN 48
0
58.7%
Bryce Baringer punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 37 yds · 0:3259% → 61%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
58.5%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
58.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+18
58.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 18 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
61.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+8
61.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 8 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 2
OPP 43
0
61.4%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 43
0
60.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 1:2342% → 41%
Q3 14:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
57.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 19 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
55.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 13:52
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+1
55.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 13:27
3RD & 9
OWN 45
0
56.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 9
OWN 45
-5
58.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 13:27
4TH & 14
OWN 40
-5
59.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 35Similar
Q3 13:09
4TH & 19
OWN 35
0
59.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 17 yds · 2:5558% → 55%
Q3 13:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
58.2%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
57.6%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 1 yd to the MiaFl 21Similar
Q3 12:09
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
55.9%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q3 11:55
4TH & 9
OWN 21
+15
55.0%
Hedley, Lou punt 50 yards to the MICHIGANST29, fair catch by Reed, Jayden, PENALTY MICHIGANST roughing the kicker (Carr, Maliq) 15 yards to the MIAMI36, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MIAMI.Similar
Q3 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
58.5%
Harris, Cam'Ron rush for 7 yards to the MIAMI43, PENALTY MIAMI holding (Nelson, Zion) 10 yards to the MIAMI26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+10
57.0%
D'Eriq King run for 10 yds to the MiaFl 36Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
57.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 41Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+1
58.6%
D'Eriq King run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q3 10:15
4TH & 4
OWN 42
-5
56.3%
MIAMI FL Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MiaFl 37Similar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 9
OWN 37
0
54.7%
Lou Hedley punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 85 yds · 3:3245% → 68%
Q3 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
54.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 9 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q3 9:19
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+3
52.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
53.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tyler HuntSimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+13
54.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 13 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
51.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+24
51.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 24 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
49.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Terry Lockett Jr. for 4 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 7:06
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+16
48.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 16 yds to the MiaFl 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
47.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the MiaFl 11Similar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+11
32.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 17TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 1:5835% → 58%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
34.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Elijah Arroyo for 7 yds to the MiaFl 32Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+7
36.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 7 yds to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
35.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 12 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
36.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 4:34
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
36.6%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 9
OPP 48
+9
34.9%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brinson for 9 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+25
36.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 25 yds to the MchSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
38.0%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 10
OPP 14
0
37.9%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q3 3:53
3RD & 10
OPP 14
+14
58.1%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 14 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 11 yds · 3:0550% → 48%
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
50.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 2:52
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
48.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q3 2:20
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+7
49.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 7 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
46.3%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 1:08
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-5
45.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Nick Samac) to the MchSt 36Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & 13
OWN 36
0
49.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Terry Lockett Jr.Similar
Q3 0:35
3RD & 13
OWN 36
0
50.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q3 0:25
4TH & 13
OWN 36
+4
51.8%
Bryce Baringer punt for 51 yds , Tyrique Stevenson returns for 4 yds to the MiaFl 40 MIAMI FL Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the MiaFl 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:2352% → 53%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
52.0%
Mike Harley run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 8Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 8
+24
51.7%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 9 yds to the MiaFl 17 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Charles Brantley) to the MiaFl 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
53.4%
D'Eriq King sacked by Drew Beesley for a loss of 15 yards to the MiaFl 13 D'Eriq King fumbled, forced by Drew Beesley, recovered by MchSt Jacub Panasiuk , return for 4 yds to the MiaFl 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
3 plays · 13 yds · 1:1057% → 76%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-3
42.7%
Jalen Nailor run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaFl 16Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 13
OPP 16
+6
42.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 6 yds to the MiaFl 10Similar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+10
24.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 10 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 21FG
13 plays · 38 yds · 4:3927% → 31%
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
26.9%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 11 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
26.5%
D'Eriq King sacked by Jeff Pietrowski for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaFl 34Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+15
23.3%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 15 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
25.7%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 3 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-10
26.4%
King, D'Eriq rush for 8 yards to the MICHIGANST40, PENALTY MIAMI holding 10 yards to the MIAMI42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 17
OWN 42
+15
22.4%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Romello Brinson for 15 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 10:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
22.5%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+4
20.4%
D'Eriq King run for 4 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
21.6%
Cam'Ron Harris run for 1 yd to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 8:25
2ND & 9
OPP 37
0
20.3%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Mike HarleySimilar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 9
OPP 37
0
19.3%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Charleston RamboSimilar
Q4 8:11
4TH & 9
OPP 37
+55
30.8%
Andres Borregales 55 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3877% → 97%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
23.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 9 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q4 7:05
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-5
21.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+22
21.6%
Payton Thorne run for 22 yds to the MiaFl 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
16.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 46Similar
Q4 5:16
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
13.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 4 yds to the MiaFl 42Similar
Q4 4:50
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+2
14.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MiaFl 40Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+1
15.5%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the MiaFl 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
3.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 39 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 23INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
4.3%
D'Eriq King pass intercepted Ronald Williams return for no gain to the MiaFl 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:5998% → 100%
Q4 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-4
2.5%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 4 yards to the MiaFl 27Similar
Q4 3:09
2ND & 14
OPP 27
+3
2.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MiaFl 24Similar
Q4 2:56
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+16
2.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 16 yds to the MiaFl 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
0.5%
Jayden Reed run for 8 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MIADrive 25END OF 4TH QUARTER
13 plays · 41 yds · 2:221% → 1%
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
1.0%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Dee Wiggins for 5 yds to the MiaFl 30Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
0.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 1 yd to the MiaFl 31Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
0.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Will MallorySimilar
Q4 1:18
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+5
0.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Cam'Ron Harris for 5 yds to the MiaFl 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
0.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Will Mallory for 7 yds to the MiaFl 43Similar
Q4 0:38
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
0.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Xavier Restrepo for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
50
0
0.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Cam'Ron HarrisSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
50
+16
0.8%
D'Eriq King pass complete to Key'Shawn Smith for 16 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
0.9%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Key'Shawn SmithSimilar
Q4 0:05
2ND & 10
OPP 34
0
0.9%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Romello BrinsonSimilar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
0
0.8%
D'Eriq King pass incomplete to Cam'Ron HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 3:53
D'Eriq King pass complete to Charleston Rambo for 14 yds for a TD (Andres Borregales KICK)
+20.2
TD · Q4 13:10
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 10 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-18
TD · Q3 6:08
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 11 yds for a TD (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-15.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com