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MICH

Michigan 33 at Michigan State 37

MSU
2021 · Week 9 · Oct 30, 2021 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:33 · Bryce Baringer punt for 46 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 19 yds to the Mich 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+29.5+14.80−14.8−29.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 115Home team on offense+8.9Pregame prior−5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.8Garbage-time factor+4.0Score differential+2.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:52: Kenneth Walker III 27 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick) — MSU win probability +6.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: MSU down 3 timeouts).
  2. TD · Q2 7:16: K. Walker III run for 8 yds for a TD, (M. Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +27.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:47: THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for FOSTER, Montorie thrown to the MSU38. PENALTY MIC Pass Interference on TURNER, DJ enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the MSU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down). — MSU win probability +10.4 pts (now 72%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:58: Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Run (Payton Thorne Pass to Tre Mosley for Two-Point Conversion) — MSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 9:20: Jake Moody 36 Yd Field Goal — MSU win probability +7.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 9MICH made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 9:32MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:32MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:49MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:49MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:18MICH 4th & 3 at MSU 8, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%−0.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    57.9%−3.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:18MICH 4th & 2 at MSU 20, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 57.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%−0.8
    75% to make
    Punt
    52.1%−5.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:18MSU 4th & 1 at MICH 48, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    39.2%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:13MSU 4th & 29 at MSU 5, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−6.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:13MSU 4th & 29 at MSU 5, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.7%−6.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:02MICH 4th & 5 at MSU 17, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 37.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−9.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:27MICH 4th & 6 at MSU 45, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    30.4%−2.6
    25% to make
    Punt
    32.7%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:33MSU 4th & 23 at MSU 27, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−5.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:47MSU 4th & 4 at MICH 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    71.8%−0.8
    58% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−7.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:46MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−1.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:20MICH 4th & 8 at MSU 18, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.9%−4.0
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−14.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:17MSU 4th & 14 at MSU 21, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−3.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:08MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 32, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.8%−1.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:43MICH 4th & 3 at MSU 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%−3.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−5.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:43MICH 4th & 3 at MSU 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    6.6%−3.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    4.6%−5.3
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:15MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.6%−0.9
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1MICH made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:03MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:52MSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1INT
6 plays · 36 yds · 2:2236% → 37%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
35.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 16 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
35.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+7
35.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 7 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
35.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tyler Hunt for 3 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+2
35.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q1 12:38
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
36.8%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted return for no gain to the Mich 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 2TD
4 plays · 98 yds · 1:3563% → 64%
Q1 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
36.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Andrew Stueber) to the Mich 1Similar
Q1 12:38
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+1
36.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 2Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+5
36.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 5 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 5
OWN 7
+93
35.9%
Andrel Anthony 93 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 1:3136% → 36%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
35.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
35.7%
THORNE, Payton sacked for a loss of 6 yards at the MSU22 (MORRIS, Mike). PENALTY MIC Face mask on MORRIS, Mike enforced 15 yards from the MSU28 to the MSU43 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
36.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 11:03
2ND & 9
OWN 44
0
36.0%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
35.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
35.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q1 9:32
4TH & 9
OWN 44
0
35.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 2:4364% → 65%
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
35.9%
Hassan Haskins run for 7 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+1
35.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+7
35.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to A.J. Henning for 7 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
35.6%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:32
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
35.7%
Blake Corum run for 5 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q1 9:32
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
35.5%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
35.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 6:49
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
35.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5INT
7 plays · 31 yds · 2:4035% → 35%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
34.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 4 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+22
34.7%
Payton Thorne run for 22 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
35.2%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+2
35.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 5
50
0
34.8%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted return for no gain to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 5
50
0
34.8%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted return for no gain to the MchSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 6FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:5166% → 67%
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
33.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 15 yds to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-10
33.7%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (Andrel Anthony) to the MchSt 18Similar
Q1 4:09
1ST & 13
OPP 18
+5
33.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q1 4:09
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+1
33.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 12Similar
Q1 4:09
3RD & 7
OPP 12
+4
33.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 4 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q1 1:18
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+26
33.0%
Jake Moody 26 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:2632% → 40%
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
32.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 19 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+16
32.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 16 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
33.1%
THORNE, Payton pass up the middle incomplete intended for WALKER III, Kenneth thrown to the MIC40. PENALTY Before the snap, MIC Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the MIC40 to the MIC35. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+2
33.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the Mich 33Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+6
33.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 6 yds to the Mich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
39.6%
Kenneth Walker III 27 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 8FG
10 plays · 55 yds · 5:3462% → 66%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
38.3%
Blake Corum run for 9 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+3
37.6%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+21
37.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 21 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
36.9%
Blake Corum run for 1 yd to the MchSt 38Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+10
37.0%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Hassan Haskins for 10 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
36.2%
Blake Corum run for 4 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+3
36.2%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+1
36.5%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 20Similar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 2
OPP 20
+38
33.8%
Jake Moody 38 Yd Field GoalSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:0035% → 36%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
35.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 18 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
36.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 9 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 1
OPP 48
0
37.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 1
OPP 48
0
37.1%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the Mich 48Similar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 1
OPP 48
+40
36.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 40 yds to the Mich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 10TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 3:2542% → 43%
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
58.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 15 yds to the Mich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
57.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
57.1%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:10
3RD & 8
OWN 39
+13
57.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 13 yds to the MchSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
55.8%
Blake Corum run for 6 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+24
55.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 24 yds to the MchSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
54.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 17Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+17
57.0%
Andrel Anthony 17 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · -5 yds · 2:2367% → 68%
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
67.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the MchSt 10Similar
Q2 3:36
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+14
67.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 14 yds to the MchSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-10
66.7%
THORNE, Payton sacked for a loss of 2 yards at the MSU22 (HUTCHINSON, Aidan). PENALTY MSU Holding on CAMPBELL, Luke enforced 10 yards from the MSU24 to the MSU14 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 3:36
1ST & 20
OWN 14
0
67.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for no gain to the MchSt 14Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 20
OWN 14
-14
68.8%
sacked by David Ojabo for a loss of 14 yards Payton Thorne fumbled, recovered by Mich Aidan Hutchinson , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 31
OWN 3
+2
68.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 29
OWN 5
0
67.9%
Bryce Baringer punt for 66 yds, downed at the Mich 29Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 29
OWN 5
0
67.9%
Bryce Baringer punt for 66 yds, downed at the Mich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 12FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 1:1135% → 38%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+21
65.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 21 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
50
0
62.5%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
50
+4
63.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for 4 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+11
62.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 11 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
60.3%
MCNAMARA, Cade pass to the right incomplete intended for SCHOONMAKER, Luke thrown to the MSU29. PENALTY MSU Offsides on PANASIUK, Jacub enforced 5 yards from the MSU35 to the MSU30 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 5
OPP 30
+8
59.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 8 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
60.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 5 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
62.0%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:06
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
63.4%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:02
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+35
62.3%
Jake Moody 35 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
68.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 35 yds · 4:3338% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mich 26Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
62.1%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
63.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 15 yds to the Mich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
60.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 2 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+8
60.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Hassan Haskins for 8 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
59.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+8
59.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Blake Corum for 8 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 40
0
58.8%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 40
-5
60.6%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (Luke Schoonmaker) to the MchSt 45Similar
Q3 10:27
4TH & 6
OPP 45
+5
65.5%
Brad Robbins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · -13 yds · 1:5469% → 66%
Q3 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
69.0%
QB Keeper THORNE, Payton rush to the left for a gain of 10 yards to the MSU50 (ROSS, Josh). PENALTY MSU Holding on HORST, Jarrett enforced 10 yards from the MSU40 to the MSU30 [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 10:27
1ST & 20
OWN 30
0
66.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the MchSt 30Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 20
OWN 30
-3
66.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 27Similar
Q3 10:27
3RD & 23
OWN 27
0
64.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:33
4TH & 23
OWN 27
+19
65.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 46 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 19 yds to the Mich 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16TD
7 plays · 54 yds · 1:4637% → 28%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
63.5%
J.J. McCarthy run for 12 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+20
62.5%
Cade McNamara run for 20 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
60.2%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
61.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Erick All for 3 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+19
64.5%
Mike Sainristil 19 Yd pass from Cade McNamara (Jake Moody Kick)Similar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
72.2%
THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for FOSTER, Montorie thrown to the MSU38. PENALTY MIC Pass Interference on TURNER, DJ enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the MSU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:4974% → 78%
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
74.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
74.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
50
+15
75.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 15 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST down pass incomplete for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
75.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+3
75.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q3 6:47
3RD & 4
OPP 29
0
73.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for no gain to the Mich 29Similar
Q3 6:47
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+28
72.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 28 yds to the Mich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
77.6%
Kenneth Walker III 1 Yd Run (Payton Thorne Pass to Tre Mosley for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 4:0629% → 23%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
71.0%
Blake Corum run for 11 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
70.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 6 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+2
68.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+8
69.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 8 yds to the Mich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
67.7%
Blake Corum run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+3
74.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 3 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
75.0%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
76.9%
Brad Robbins punt for 38 yds, downed at the MchSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 2:1782% → 84%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
82.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 14
0
82.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 10
OWN 14
+11
82.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 11 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 6 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 14:22
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
81.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 4 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
82.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
82.6%
Payton Thorne run for 7 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+58
83.9%
Kenneth Walker III 58 Yd Run (Payton Thorne Pass to Jayden Reed for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20FG
10 plays · 57 yds · 3:0920% → 16%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.3%
Blake Corum run for 2 yds to the Mich 27Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
79.9%
J.J. McCarthy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+43
81.5%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 43 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
74.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 6 yds to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+4
74.4%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
74.4%
J.J. McCarthy run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 21Similar
Q4 12:29
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+3
75.0%
Cade McNamara run for 3 yds to the MchSt 18Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & 8
OPP 18
0
76.8%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:20
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
84.3%
Jake Moody 36 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0391% → 94%
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
91.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
91.0%
Payton Thorne sacked by Aidan Hutchinson for 0 yards to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
90.2%
Payton Thorne sacked for 0 yards to the MchSt 21Similar
Q4 7:17
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
93.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 58 yds , returns for no gain to the Mich 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22FUMBLE
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
84.8%
J.J. McCarthy run for a loss of 4 yards to the Mich 41 fumbled, recovered by MchSt Jacub PanasiukSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 41 yds · 2:0496% → 97%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
95.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jarrett Horst) to the Mich 49Similar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 18
OPP 49
+1
95.3%
Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 17
OPP 48
+9
95.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 9 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+5
95.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, turnover on downs. PENALTY Offsides on MORRIS, Mike enforced (5 Yards) to the Mich 34Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+6
95.0%
run for 6 yds to the Mich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
95.6%
WALKER III, Kenneth rush up the middle for a gain of 2 yards to the MIC26 (MORRIS, Mike;HUTCHINSON, Aidan). PENALTY Before the snap, MIC Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the MIC28 to the MIC23. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 5
OPP 23
0
95.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+5
95.1%
THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for REED, Jayden thrown to the MIC5. PENALTY MIC Offsides on MORRIS, Mike enforced 5 yards from the MIC39 to the MIC34 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+23
97.2%
Kenneth Walker III 23 Yd Run (Matt Coghlin Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24DOWNS
13 plays · 44 yds · 3:2511% → 9%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
89.4%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
89.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 7 yds to the Mich 32Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
89.2%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:08
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+7
90.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 7 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
87.7%
Blake Corum run for no gain to the Mich 39Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+12
88.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 12 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
86.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 8 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+3
84.9%
Blake Corum run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
85.9%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
86.4%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 7 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
85.4%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
90.7%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
90.7%
Cade McNamara pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:2299% → 99%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
98.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+2
98.8%
run for 2 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-6
98.8%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & 12
OWN 29
+15
98.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 53 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 15 yds to the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26INT
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:155% → 5%
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+15
95.1%
MCNAMARA, Cade pass to the left incomplete intended for ANTHONY, Andrel thrown to the MIC37. PENALTY MSU Roughing the Passer on JORDAN, Drew enforced 15 yards from the MIC33 to the MIC48 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
94.9%
Cade McNamara pass intercepted return for no gain to the MchSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:16
K. Walker III run for 8 yds for a TD, (M. Coghlin KICK)
+27.3
TD · Q3 6:47
THORNE, Payton pass to the left incomplete intended for FOSTER, Montorie thrown to the MSU38. PENALTY MIC Pass Interference on TURNER, DJ enforced at the spot of the foul for 13 yards to the MSU38 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [SG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).
+10.4
FG · Q4 9:20
Jake Moody 36 Yd Field Goal
+7.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com