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WKU

Western Kentucky 31 at Michigan State 48

MSU
2021 · Week 5 · Oct 2, 2021 · Spartan Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadWKU aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scoreWKU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 1:35 · Bryce Baringer punt for 43 yds , Jerreth Sterns returns for 2 yds to the WKent 28
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 42Home team on offense+3.6Pregame prior+25.5Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Garbage-time factor+1.1Blowout margin−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:54: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 46 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +3.5 pts (now 86%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:57: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for 4 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +3.3 pts (now 18%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 9:10: Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:39: Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +5.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 8:24: Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK) — WKU win probability +6.2 pts (now 7%) (top driver: WKU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 3 of 6WKU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:32WKU 4th & 8 at WKU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:25WKU 4th & 3 at WKU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:04WKU 4th & 19 at MSU 19, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−1.0
    10% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.6%
    77% to make
    Punt
    18.1%−2.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:35MSU 4th & 4 at MSU 31, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:42WKU 4th & 5 at MSU 11, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.5%
    87% to make
    Punt
    19.0%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:51WKU 4th & 10 at MSU 17, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 12:14MSU 4th & 17 at WKU 47, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%−0.9
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:14WKU 4th & 2 at MSU 23, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    2.8%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    0.4%−2.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:32WKU 4th & 20 at MSU 20, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.8
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.3%−1.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:43MSU 4th & 3 at WKU 3, up 26
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    98.1%−1.4
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00WKU 4th & 4 at WKU 31, down 29
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:52MSU 4th & 2 at WKU 46, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%−0.5
    23% to make
    Punt
    98.5%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:46MSU 4th & 3 at WKU 3, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.2%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    93.4%−3.3
    average punt
  14. Q4 3:08WKU 4th & 6 at MSU 40, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.9%−0.1
    34% to make
    Punt
    1.8%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:25MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 49, up 17
    Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5WKU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 8:26MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:54MSU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:57WKU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 9:10MSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:39MSU Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:41MSU Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 13:13WKU Touchdown, down 23 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    1.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    1.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 8:24WKU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
WKUDrive 1PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2818% → 18%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
81.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 5 yds to the WKent 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-3
81.9%
Bailey Zappe run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
81.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+88
81.8%
John Haggerty III punt for 61 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 88 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:0718% → 18%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
81.8%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
81.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+1
81.8%
Adam Cofield run for 1 yd to the WKent 32Similar
Q1 12:25
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
81.8%
John Haggerty III punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:5982% → 84%
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
81.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 6 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+9
81.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 9 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-10
81.8%
WALKER III, Kenneth rush to the right for a gain of 1 yard to the MSU36 (OLIVER, Kaleb;HAILASSIE, Kahlef). PENALTY MSU Holding on HUNT, Tyler enforced 10 yards from the MSU35 to the MSU25 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 20
OWN 25
+4
81.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 16
OWN 29
+46
81.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 46 yds to the WKent 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
82.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 30Similar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+19
81.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 19 yds to the WKent 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+6
82.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 6 yds to the WKent 5Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 4
OPP 5
+5
83.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 4FG
13 plays · 56 yds · 3:2217% → 18%
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
82.9%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+5
82.8%
Noah Whittington run for 5 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+23
82.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 23 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
82.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 6 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+21
82.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 21 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-5
82.7%
ZAPPE, Bailey pass to the left complete for 1 yard to CORLEY, Malachi caught at the MSU4 and advanced to the MSU4 (DOWELL, Michael;WILLIAMS JR., Ronald). PENALTY Before the snap, WKU Illegal Motion on ZAPPE, Bailey enforced 5 yards from the MSU5 to the MSU10. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q1 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
82.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
82.7%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
83.0%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Maverick Hansen for 0 yards to the MchSt 19Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 4
OPP 35
-1
82.7%
Adam Cofield run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 36Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 5
OPP 36
+10
82.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 10 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 19
+37
81.7%
Brayden Narveson 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1082% → 86%
Q1 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
82.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 5:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
82.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:04
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+27
82.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 27 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
85.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 46 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 6TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 0:5715% → 18%
Q1 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+60
85.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 60 yds to the MchSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
85.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 1 yd to the MchSt 4Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
81.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for 4 yds for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2282% → 82%
Q1 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
82.2%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the MchSt 30Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
82.3%
Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the MchSt 31Similar
Q1 2:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
82.1%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:35
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+2
81.6%
Bryce Baringer punt for 43 yds , Jerreth Sterns returns for 2 yds to the WKent 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 8FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 4:5318% → 19%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+15
82.3%
Adam Cofield run for 15 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
82.1%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Illegal Block (-10 Yards) to the WKent 35Similar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 18
OWN 35
-5
82.5%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the WKent 30Similar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 23
OWN 30
+2
82.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for 2 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 21
OWN 32
+25
82.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 25 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
81.7%
Bailey Zappe run for 6 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+2
81.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 2 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 35
+5
81.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 5 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
81.3%
Noah Whittington run for 9 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+5
81.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 5 yds to the MchSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
81.0%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
81.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for 5 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
81.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:42
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+29
81.0%
Brayden Narveson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9TD
7 plays · 68 yds · 2:2781% → 87%
Q2 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
81.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 3 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+43
80.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 43 yds to the WKent 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
81.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the WKent 20Similar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+15
81.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 15 yds to the WKent 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
86.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 10FG
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:1914% → 16%
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for no gain to the WKent 25Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
85.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jr. Craig Burt for 11 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+34
85.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 34 yds to the MICHIGANST 30 for a 1ST down MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Chester Kimbrough) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
84.0%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 13 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
83.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
83.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 10
OPP 17
0
84.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:51
4TH & 10
OPP 17
+35
84.2%
Brayden Narveson 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 4:0689% → 95%
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+20
89.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 20 yds to the WKent 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
90.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 7 yds to the WKent 39Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+2
89.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the WKent 37Similar
Q2 6:45
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+2
89.5%
Payton Thorne run for 2 yds to the WKent 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
90.0%
Payton Thorne run for no gain to the WKent 35Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+12
90.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 12 yds to the WKent 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+15
89.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 15 yds to the WKent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
89.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds to the WKent 3Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
94.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 12FUMBLE
3 plays · 6 yds · 1:059% → 10%
Q2 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.6%
Noah Whittington run for 1 yd to the WKent 26Similar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
90.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jr. Craig Burt for 8 yds to the WKent 34Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-3
90.4%
Bailey Zappe run for a loss of 3 yards to the WKent 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:5395% → 97%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
95.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 2 yds to the WKent 29Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+10
95.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 10 yds to the WKent 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
94.8%
Jayden Reed run for 7 yds to the WKent 12Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 3
OPP 12
0
94.1%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Face mask (0 yards) (Darius Shipp) to the WKent 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
94.9%
run for a loss of 6 yards to the WKent 12Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+12
97.4%
Payton Thorne run for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 14END OF HALF
7 plays · 46 yds · 0:332% → 1%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.2%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for 7 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+16
98.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 16 yds to the WKent 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
98.1%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Jacub Panasiuk for 0 yards to the WKent 42Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 16
OWN 42
+5
98.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for 5 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 11
OWN 47
+24
98.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 24 yds to the MchSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 1 yds · 2:4597% → 98%
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
97.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the WKent 44Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 6
OPP 44
-5
97.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for a loss of 5 yards to the WKent 49Similar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 11
OPP 49
+13
97.4%
Payton Thorne run for 13 yds to the WKent 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
97.4%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
97.4%
THORNE, Payton pass to the right incomplete intended for FITZPATRICK, Christian broken up by WILLIAMS, Davion at the WKU20. PENALTY MSU Holding on HORST, Jarrett WKU Pass Interference on WILLIAMS, Davion , Offsetting penalties [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 14:59
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+4
97.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the WKent 32Similar
Q3 14:59
3RD & 17
OPP 47
0
97.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 17
OPP 47
0
98.0%
Bryce Baringer punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 6
OPP 36
-15
98.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the WKent 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 16DOWNS
21 plays · 79 yds · 5:423% → 1%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
97.4%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 11 yds to the WKent 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
97.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jr. Craig Burt for 12 yds to the WKent 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
97.1%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+15
96.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jr. Craig Burt for 15 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
96.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 7 yds to the MchSt 35Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+4
96.3%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 4 yds to the MchSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
96.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Malachi Corley for 9 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
96.3%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 1
OPP 22
-1
96.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 12:14
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+4
96.3%
Bailey Zappe run for 4 yds to the MchSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
96.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 5 yds to the MchSt 14Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
96.3%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+6
96.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 6 yds to the MchSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
96.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the MchSt 3Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-15
96.3%
ZAPPE, Bailey pass to the right incomplete intended for SMITH, Dalvin broken up by GROSE, Angelo at the MSU0. PENALTY WKU Pass Interference on DAVIS, Daewood enforced 15 yards to the MSU18 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
-5
96.5%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 23
+3
96.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for 3 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
0
96.6%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:32
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+19
98.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 19 yds to the MchSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17FG
17 plays · 96 yds · 5:4999% → 100%
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
99.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+4
99.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 9Similar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+8
99.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the MchSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
99.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 19Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+13
99.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 13 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
99.0%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q3 6:32
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+6
99.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 6 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
99.5%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Will Ignont) to the WKent 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+10
99.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 10 yds to the WKent 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.6%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
99.6%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Offsides (Davion Williams) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
99.6%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the WKent 2Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
99.7%
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the WKent 3Similar
Q3 2:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
99.7%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
99.8%
Matt Coghlin 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:300% → 1%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
Noah Whittington run for 6 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q3 0:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
99.8%
Bailey Zappe sacked by Jacub Panasiuk for 0 yards to the WKent 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Noah Whittington for 6 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+7
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 7 yds to the WKent 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+9
99.8%
Jakairi Moses run for 9 yds to the WKent 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 2 yds to the WKent 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+23
99.8%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 23 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
98.7%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 28 yds for a TD, (Bailey Zappe pass to Mitchell Tinsley for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:21100% → 100%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
99.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 11 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
99.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+7
99.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Montorie Foster for 7 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 2
OPP 46
0
99.7%
Jordon Simmons run for no gain to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 2
OPP 46
+1
99.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 1 yd to the WKent 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 20TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 2:281% → 7%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
99.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Mitchell Tinsley for no gain to the WKent 45Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+9
99.1%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 9 yds to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+10
99.0%
WHITTINGTON, Noah rush up the middle for a gain of 4 yards to the MSU42 (CROUCH, Quavaris). PENALTY MSU Illegal use of the hands on WILLIAMS JR., Ronald enforced 10 yards from the MSU37 to the MSU27 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
98.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
98.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Targeting on HALADAY, Cal enforced half the distance from the goal (Cal Haladay) to the MchSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
98.9%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+5
98.9%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 5 yds to the MchSt 8Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 5
OPP 8
+6
99.0%
ZAPPE, Bailey pass to the right incomplete intended for SMITH, Dalvin broken up by GROSE, Angelo at the MSU0. PENALTY MSU Pass Interference on GROSE, Angelo enforced 6 yards to the MSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 10:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.8%
Kye Robichaux run for 1 yd to the MchSt 1Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
92.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21FG
16 plays · 72 yds · 3:3899% → 100%
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
98.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 21 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
98.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
98.9%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+14
98.8%
WESTRN KENTUCKY Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Omari Alexander) to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
98.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the WKent 35Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 6
OPP 35
0
98.8%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:24
3RD & 6
OPP 35
+17
98.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 17 yds to the WKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
98.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 7 yds to the WKent 11Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 3
OPP 11
+3
98.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the WKent 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
98.9%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 7 yds to the WKent 1Similar
Q4 4:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
99.3%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 2 yards to the WKent 3Similar
Q4 4:46
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
99.6%
Matt Coghlin 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 22DOWNS
8 plays · 35 yds · 1:381% → 2%
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
98.6%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Jerreth Sterns for 6 yds to the WKent 31Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+9
98.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Josh Sterns for 9 yds to the WKent 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
98.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for 6 yds to the WKent 46Similar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+10
98.5%
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Adam Cofield for 10 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
98.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:46
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
98.4%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:46
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+4
98.5%
Kye Robichaux run for 4 yds to the MchSt 40Similar
Q4 3:08
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
98.5%
Bailey Zappe pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:43100% → 99%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
99.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the MchSt 45Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+1
99.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the MchSt 46Similar
Q4 3:08
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+3
99.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 3 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 1
OWN 49
0
99.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jerreth Sterns at the WKent 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WKUDrive 24END OF GAME
3 plays · 10 yds · 1:251% → 1%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
98.9%
Drew Zaubi pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+9
99.0%
C.J. Jones run for 9 yds to the WKent 17Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 1
OWN 17
+1
99.0%
C.J. Jones run for 1 yd to the WKent 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 8:24
Bailey Zappe pass complete to Joey Beljan for 1 yd for a TD, (Brayden Narveson KICK)
-6.2
TD · Q2 9:10
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+5.1
TD · Q2 2:39
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+5.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com