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PITT

Pittsburgh 21 at Michigan State 31

MSU
2021 · Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl · Dec 30, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium
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Win probability · MSU
modelMSU aheadPITT aheadconfidence bandkey playMSU scorePITT score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFUMBLETDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:20 · TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:02: Davis Beville pass complete to Jared Wayne for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +13.0 pts (now 57%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
  2. FUMBLE · Q3 14:40: Payton Thorne run for 1 yd Payton Thorne fumbled, forced by John Morgan III, recovered by Pitt Cam Bright , return for 26 yds, (Sam Scarton KICK) — PITT win probability +14.5 pts (now 67%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 8:06: Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — MSU win probability +19.3 pts (now 39%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:51: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 22 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Jalen Nailor for Two-Point Conversion) — MSU win probability +57.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:22: Davis Beville pass intercepted for a TD Cal Haladay return for 78 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +22.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: PITT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8PITT made the numbers' call on 7 of 10
  1. Q1 13:56PITT 4th & 10 at PITT 2, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.0%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 2:39MSU 4th & 15 at PITT 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.7
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−2.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:38PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    37.9%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:01PITT 4th & 18 at PITT 34, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−1.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:51PITT 4th & 5 at PITT 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:46MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−1.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:20PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 18, down 3
    Close callPunted · 35.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:52MSU 4th & 3 at MSU 42, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.7%−0.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:37MSU 4th & 13 at PITT 28, down 11
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.7 ptsWent for it · 32.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    30.1%−1.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    31.9%
    60% to make
    Punt
    26.1%−5.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:29PITT 4th & 1 at PITT 37, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:40MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 21, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−1.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:58PITT 4th & 13 at PITT 23, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−4.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:41MSU 4th & 5 at MSU 41, down 11
    Close callWent for it · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.9%−0.8
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    27.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 2:11MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:53PITT 4th & 12 at PITT 35, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−2.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:30MSU 4th & 6 at PITT 25, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    20.5%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    14.7%−6.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:37PITT 4th & 3 at PITT 29, up 5
    Close callPunted · 73.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:50PITT 4th & 8 at PITT 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.6%−1.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 4PITT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 13:11MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:57PITT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:02PITT Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 8:06MSU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    32.7%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 2:51MSU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Numbers favored kick by 1.6 ptsWent for two · converted
    Kick
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.7%−1.6
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:22MSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PITTDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:5447% → 47%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
53.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for no gain to the Pitt 2Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 10
OWN 2
0
53.4%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Lucas KrullSimilar
Q1 14:09
3RD & 10
OWN 2
0
53.4%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q1 13:56
4TH & 10
OWN 2
+16
53.5%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 16 yds to the Pitt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:4054% → 54%
Q1 13:51
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
53.5%
Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the Pitt 28Similar
Q1 13:17
2ND & 9
OPP 28
0
53.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q1 13:11
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+28
54.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 28 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 3TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 5:0646% → 47%
Q1 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.1%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 30Similar
Q1 12:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+13
54.3%
Nick Patti pass complete to Jordan Addison for 13 yds to the Pitt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
54.4%
Israel Abanikanda run for 5 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+8
54.5%
Nick Patti run for 8 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
54.6%
Israel Abanikanda run for 7 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+3
54.7%
Nick Patti run for 3 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
54.8%
Nick Patti pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 9:41
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+1
54.9%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 1
OPP 25
+3
55.5%
Vincent Davis run for 3 yds to the MchSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
55.2%
Vincent Davis run for 6 yds to the MchSt 16Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
55.4%
Nick Patti pass incomplete to Lucas Krull, broken up by Noah HarveySimilar
Q1 7:57
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+16
53.1%
Nick Patti run for 16 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 4FG
16 plays · 57 yds · 5:1354% → 56%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
54.0%
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 7:23
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
53.8%
Jordon Simmons run for no gain to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 6:47
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+17
53.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 17 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
54.4%
Joiner, Harold rush for 4 yards to the MICHIGANST43, PENALTY PITTSBURGH offside (Baldonado, Habakkuk) 5 yards to the MICHIGANST44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 5
OWN 44
+25
54.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 25 yds to the Pitt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:16
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
55.3%
Payton Thorne pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+6
55.3%
Harold Joiner run for 6 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 4
OPP 25
+12
55.0%
Payton Thorne run for 12 yds to the Pitt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
55.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 5 yds to the Pitt 8Similar
Q1 4:40
2ND & 5
OPP 8
-5
55.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Matt Allen) to the Pitt 13Similar
Q1 4:24
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
55.7%
Harold Joiner run for 2 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q1 3:43
3RD & 8
OPP 11
-10
56.0%
Joiner, Harold rush for 4 yards to the PITTSBURGH7, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Brown, Spencer) 10 yards to the PITTSBURGH21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:19
3RD & 18
OPP 21
+3
55.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Harold Joiner for 3 yds to the Pitt 18Similar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 15
OPP 18
+36
55.9%
Matt Coghlin 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 5PUNT
10 plays · 2 yds · 3:3244% → 42%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
55.9%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Gavin Bartholomew) to the Pitt 27Similar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 15
OWN 27
-1
56.2%
Israel Abanikanda run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 26Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 16
OWN 26
+7
56.6%
Davis Beville pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 7 yds to the Pitt 33Similar
Q1 1:19
3RD & 9
OWN 33
+8
56.9%
Davis Beville pass complete to Vincent Davis for 8 yds to the Pitt 41Similar
Q1 0:38
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+1
56.4%
Davis Beville run for 1 yd to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
55.6%
Davis Beville pass incomplete to Vincent DavisSimilar
Q1 0:24
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+1
55.9%
Davis Beville pass complete to Vincent Davis for 1 yd to the Pitt 43Similar
Q2 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 43
-9
56.3%
Davis Beville sacked by Brandon Wright for a loss of 9 yards to the Pitt 34Similar
Q2 14:01
4TH & 18
OWN 34
+9
58.1%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 43 yds , Jayden Reed returns for 9 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 6MISSED FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:4357% → 58%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
57.1%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 33Similar
Q2 13:27
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
57.1%
Elijah Collins run for 4 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+9
57.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 9 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+50
58.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 50 yds to the Pitt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
59.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 0
OPP 4
-5
60.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Matt Allen) to the Pitt 9Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
59.7%
Payton Thorne run for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 15Similar
Q2 11:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
0
58.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 0
OPP 15
+33
58.3%
Matt Coghlin 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:1542% → 41%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
57.7%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 2 yds to the Pitt 22Similar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
57.9%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 3 yds to the Pitt 25Similar
Q2 9:59
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
58.2%
Davis Beville pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:51
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
59.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5758% → 59%
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
57.9%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+15
57.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 15 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
59.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Elijah CollinsSimilar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+11
58.8%
Payton Thorne run for 11 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
60.9%
Elijah Collins run for 3 yds to the Pitt 48Similar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-5
61.4%
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 5 yards to the MchSt 47 Jordon Simmons fumbled, recovered by MchSt Payton ThorneSimilar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 12
OWN 47
0
59.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Montorie FosterSimilar
Q2 6:46
4TH & 12
OWN 47
0
58.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2041% → 39%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-1
58.9%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 10Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 11
OWN 10
+8
59.2%
Davis Beville run for 8 yds to the Pitt 18Similar
Q2 5:33
3RD & 3
OWN 18
0
59.8%
Davis Beville pass incomplete to Jordan AddisonSimilar
Q2 5:20
4TH & 3
OWN 18
0
60.8%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 40 yds, downed at the MchSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10INT
8 plays · 29 yds · 3:1161% → 64%
Q2 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
61.4%
Jordon Simmons run for 7 yds to the MchSt 49Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 3
OWN 49
+1
62.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 4:33
3RD & 2
50
-5
61.7%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Spencer Brown) to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 4:12
3RD & 7
OWN 45
+15
60.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 15 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
62.8%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q2 3:02
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+3
62.9%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q2 2:31
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+6
62.7%
Jordon Simmons run for 6 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
63.9%
Payton Thorne pass intercepted Brandon Hill return for no gain to the Pitt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 11TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 0:5340% → 57%
Q2 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
60.1%
Vincent Davis run for 12 yds to the Pitt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
59.9%
Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for 10 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+52
59.5%
Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for 52 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+12
55.1%
Vincent Davis run for 12 yds to the MchSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
55.5%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 4Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
43.1%
Davis Beville pass complete to Jared Wayne for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12END OF HALF
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5149% → 48%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+9
49.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 9 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 1
OWN 25
-8
50.9%
Payton Thorne sacked by Tyler Bentley for a loss of 8 yards to the MchSt 17Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+1
47.7%
Elijah Collins run for 1 yd to the MchSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:1448% → 34%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor, broken up by A.J. WoodsSimilar
Q3 14:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
48.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q3 14:40
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+26
33.5%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd Payton Thorne fumbled, forced by John Morgan III, recovered by Pitt Cam Bright , return for 26 yds, (Sam Scarton KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 14DOWNS
13 plays · 47 yds · 4:5635% → 29%
Q3 14:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
34.6%
Jordon Simmons run for 10 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
34.8%
Payton Thorne run for 3 yds to the MchSt 38Similar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+4
35.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 4 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
34.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q3 12:52
4TH & 3
OWN 42
+7
33.3%
Connor Heyward run for 7 yds to the MchSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
35.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 8 yds to the Pitt 43Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+3
35.6%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the Pitt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+15
35.2%
Thorne, Payton pass incomplete, PENALTY PITTSBURGH roughing passer (Petrishen, John) 15 yards to the PITTSBURGH25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN MICHIGANST.Similar
Q3 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
35.1%
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 4 yards to the Pitt 29Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 14
OPP 29
+1
33.9%
Payton Thorne run for 1 yd to the Pitt 28Similar
Q3 9:43
3RD & 13
OPP 28
0
31.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q3 9:37
4TH & 13
OPP 28
0
29.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen Nailor, broken up by A.J. WoodsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:5970% → 71%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-8
29.7%
Davis Beville sacked by Jacob Slade for a loss of 8 yards to the Pitt 20Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 18
OWN 20
+12
30.1%
Vincent Davis run for 12 yds to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 8:22
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+5
29.3%
Davis Beville pass complete to Shocky Jacques-Louis for 5 yds to the Pitt 37Similar
Q3 7:29
4TH & 1
OWN 37
0
29.0%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 47 yds, downed at the MchSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4229% → 27%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
28.7%
Elijah Collins run for 5 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 5
OWN 21
0
28.8%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Elijah CollinsSimilar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 5
OWN 21
0
27.1%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
26.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 53 yds , Jordan Addison returns for no gain to the Pitt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 1:3372% → 72%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
27.9%
Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 25Similar
Q3 6:21
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+1
28.2%
Vincent Davis run for 1 yd to the Pitt 26Similar
Q3 5:42
3RD & 10
OWN 26
-3
28.4%
Davis Beville sacked by Drew Beesley and Brandon Wright for a loss of 3 yards to the Pitt 23Similar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 13
OWN 23
0
28.4%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 2:3627% → 23%
Q3 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
27.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 5 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 4:21
2ND & 5
OWN 41
0
27.9%
Jordon Simmons run for no gain to the MchSt 41Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
26.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Maliq CarrSimilar
Q3 3:41
4TH & 5
OWN 41
+9
24.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
50
-10
28.0%
Payton Thorne sacked by Bam Brima for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 2:45
2ND & 20
OWN 40
0
25.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Connor HeywardSimilar
Q3 2:34
3RD & 20
OWN 40
+8
24.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Harold Joiner for 8 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 2:11
4TH & 12
OWN 48
0
22.9%
Bryce Baringer punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Jordan Addison at the Pitt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:0874% → 77%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+28
25.8%
Jordan Addison run for 28 yds to the Pitt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
24.0%
PITTSBURGH Penalty, False Start (Carter Warren) to the Pitt 32Similar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+6
24.5%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 6 yds to the Pitt 38Similar
Q3 0:52
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-12
22.5%
Davis Beville sacked by Simeon Barrow and Jacub Panasiuk for a loss of 12 yards to the Pitt 26Similar
Q3 0:09
3RD & 21
OWN 26
+9
22.8%
Rodney Hammond Jr. run for 9 yds to the Pitt 35Similar
Q4 14:53
4TH & 12
OWN 35
0
22.9%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 20TD
15 plays · 70 yds · 6:4223% → 44%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
22.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 15 yds to the MchSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
23.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 2 yds to the MchSt 47Similar
Q4 13:52
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+11
23.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 11 yds to the Pitt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
24.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 13 yds to the Pitt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
25.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 5 yds to the Pitt 24Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 5
OPP 24
0
24.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q4 12:11
3RD & 5
OPP 24
-1
22.8%
Jordon Simmons run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 25Similar
Q4 11:30
4TH & 6
OPP 25
+8
19.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 8 yds to the Pitt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
23.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 6 yds to the Pitt 11Similar
Q4 10:11
2ND & 4
OPP 11
+6
20.1%
Payton Thorne run for 6 yds to the Pitt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-5
22.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Maliq Carr) to the Pitt 10Similar
Q4 9:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
20.0%
Jordon Simmons run for 1 yd to the Pitt 9Similar
Q4 8:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
-6
19.7%
Payton Thorne sacked by Devin Danielson for a loss of 6 yards to the Pitt 15Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+15
39.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
Q4 8:06
3RD & 0
OPP 3
-5
43.8%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Pitt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 2:1872% → 74%
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
28.3%
Vincent Davis run for no gain to the Pitt 22Similar
Q4 7:14
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
25.3%
Davis Beville pass complete to Gavin Bartholomew for 9 yds to the Pitt 31Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 1
OWN 31
-2
23.8%
Vincent Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Pitt 29Similar
Q4 5:37
4TH & 3
OWN 29
0
26.4%
Kirk Christodoulou punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22TD
12 plays · 71 yds · 2:4131% → 89%
Q4 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
31.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 5:02
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+1
29.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 1 yd to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+11
28.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 11 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
32.4%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Keon Coleman for 11 yds to the Pitt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
34.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre Mosley, broken up by Erick HallettSimilar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
33.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+10
30.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Maliq Carr for 10 yds to the Pitt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
33.7%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
33.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+14
31.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 14 yds to the Pitt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
89.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 22 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Jalen Nailor for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PITTDrive 23INT TD
10 plays · 49 yds · 2:2127% → 5%
Q4 2:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
73.2%
Vincent Davis run for 2 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-7
74.2%
Davis Beville sacked by Jacub Panasiuk and Jacob Slade for a loss of 7 yards to the Pitt 20Similar
Q4 2:12
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+7
81.8%
Davis Beville pass complete to Vincent Davis for 7 yds to the Pitt 27Similar
Q4 1:50
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+8
82.0%
Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for 8 yds to the Pitt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+24
78.8%
Davis Beville pass complete to Jordan Addison for 24 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
73.6%
Davis Beville pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 7 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+8
72.8%
Davis Beville pass complete to Lucas Krull for 8 yds to the MchSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-78
95.0%
Davis Beville pass intercepted for a TD Cal Haladay return for 78 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Pitt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:51
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 22 yds for a TD, (Payton Thorne pass to Jalen Nailor for Two-Point Conversion)
+57.8
TD · Q4 0:22
Davis Beville pass intercepted for a TD Cal Haladay return for 78 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
+22.2
TD · Q4 8:06
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 15 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
+19.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com