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MSU

Michigan State 38 at Northwestern 21

NU
2021 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2021 · Ryan Field
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Win probability · NU
modelNU aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playNU scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:20 · Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the Nwest 8 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 147Home team on offense−35.6Score differential−16.9Garbage-time factor−9.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−4.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−4.7Pregame prior+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:45: Payton Thorne pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 14 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +12.7 pts (now 76%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:59: Hunter Johnson pass complete to Trey Pugh for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +9.2 pts (now 32%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:06: Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK) — MSU win probability +11.3 pts (now 93%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:17: Hunter Johnson pass complete to Trey Pugh for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +12.6 pts (now 17%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:27: Hunter Johnson pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 14 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK) — NU win probability +8.1 pts (now 12%) (top driver: NU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NU made the numbers' call on 10 of 12MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:56NU 4th & 8 at MSU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.5%
    64% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:09NU 4th & 7 at MSU 22, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.6%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    52.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−3.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:47MSU 4th & 10 at NU 42, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    50.5%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:20NU 4th & 5 at NU 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%−0.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:07MSU 4th & 17 at MSU 43, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−2.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:13NU 4th & 5 at NU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:23NU 4th & 8 at NU 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:43MSU 4th & 9 at MSU 27, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:07NU 4th & 1 at MSU 4, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.3%
    65% to convert
    Field goal
    24.7%−1.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    21.2%−5.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:59NU 4th & 1 at MSU 1, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    23.2%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−6.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:26NU 4th & 20 at MSU 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−2.8
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.4%
    75% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−6.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:39NU 4th & 20 at NU 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.6%−3.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:09MSU 4th & 2 at MSU 26, up 21
    Close callPunted · 94.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:45NU 4th & 3 at MSU 29, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.7
    58% to make
    Punt
    1.4%−4.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:44NU 4th & 5 at MSU 15, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.8%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    4.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    1.1%−3.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:20MSU 4th & 1 at NU 16, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.5%−1.9
    81% to make
    Punt
    85.3%−7.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:57NU 4th & 23 at NU 12, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3MSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 14:47MSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:44MSU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:45MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:59NU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:06MSU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:17NU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 2:27NU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:29MSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
53.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 75 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 2MISSED FG
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:1953% → 53%
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
53.2%
Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 14:11
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-5
53.2%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 31Similar
Q1 13:58
2ND & 14
OWN 31
0
53.1%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Bryce KirtzSimilar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 14
OWN 31
+41
53.0%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 41 yds to the MchSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
53.3%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 12:47
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+4
53.1%
Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 4
OPP 22
-4
52.9%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 26Similar
Q1 11:56
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+44
52.6%
Charlie Kuhbander 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3TD
10 plays · 74 yds · 3:5548% → 53%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
52.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q1 11:12
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+16
52.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 16 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
51.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the MchSt 44Similar
Q1 10:15
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+20
51.7%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 20 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
51.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the Nwest 36Similar
Q1 9:04
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+3
51.1%
Jordon Simmons run for 3 yds to the Nwest 33Similar
Q1 8:40
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+7
50.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 7 yds to the Nwest 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
50.6%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Tre MosleySimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+23
50.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 23 yds to the Nwest 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 4DOWNS
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:2349% → 48%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
48.8%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Andrew ClairSimilar
Q1 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+1
48.4%
Stephon Robinson Jr. run for 1 yd to the Nwest 28Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+47
48.0%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 47 yds to the MchSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
49.0%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for a loss of 2 yards to the MchSt 27Similar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+5
48.5%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 5 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q1 5:15
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
48.1%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Stephon Robinson Jr.Similar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 7
OPP 22
0
47.8%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Bryce KirtzSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 2:0654% → 56%
Q1 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
45.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q1 4:25
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+15
45.5%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 15 yds to the MchSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+18
44.9%
Payton Thorne run for 18 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
44.5%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
44.3%
Jordon Simmons run for no gain to the Nwest 42Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
43.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Terry Lockett Jr.Similar
Q1 2:47
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
44.2%
Bryce Baringer punt for 41 yds, downed at the Nwest 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:1044% → 43%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+15
44.4%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 15 yds to the Nwest 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-6
44.4%
Hunter Johnson run for a loss of 6 yards to the Nwest 10 Hunter Johnson fumbled, recovered by Nwest Hunter JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:41
2ND & 16
OWN 10
+8
43.9%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 8 yds to the Nwest 18Similar
Q1 1:07
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+3
43.3%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for 3 yds to the Nwest 21Similar
Q1 0:20
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
42.8%
Derek Adams punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 1:5459% → 59%
Q1 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
41.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+7
41.2%
Kenneth Walker III run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
50
-5
40.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 45Similar
Q2 14:22
1ST & 15
OWN 45
0
41.0%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 15
OWN 45
+5
41.1%
Payton Thorne run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 10
50
-7
40.2%
Payton Thorne sacked by Samdup Miller and Chris Bergin for a loss of 7 yards to the MchSt 43Similar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 17
OWN 43
0
40.7%
Bryce Baringer punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:4541% → 39%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
41.3%
Anthony Tyus III run for 4 yds to the Nwest 24Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+1
41.0%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Anthony Tyus III for 1 yd to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 5
OWN 25
0
39.3%
Hunter Johnson run for no gain to the Nwest 25Similar
Q2 11:13
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
38.8%
Derek Adams punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 66 yds · 1:0762% → 76%
Q2 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
37.9%
Jordon Simmons run for 2 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+19
37.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 19 yds to the Nwest 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+31
36.4%
Payton Thorne run for 16 yds to the Nwest 29 for a 1ST down NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Personal Foul (Chris Bergin) to the Nwest 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
23.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 14 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:1528% → 27%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.4%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+16
28.0%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Evan Hull for 16 yds to the Nwest 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
29.2%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the Nwest 43Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
28.1%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q2 8:31
3RD & 8
OWN 43
0
27.8%
Hunter Johnson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:23
4TH & 8
OWN 43
0
27.3%
Derek Adams punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MchSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:3377% → 76%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
22.9%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+1
24.0%
Harold Joiner run for 1 yd to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 7:53
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
24.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jayden ReedSimilar
Q2 7:43
4TH & 9
OWN 27
+13
24.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 48 yds , Bryce Kirtz returns for 13 yds to the Nwest 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 12TD
16 plays · 62 yds · 6:3128% → 32%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
27.9%
Andrew Clair run for 8 yds to the Nwest 46Similar
Q2 7:10
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+1
28.1%
Andrew Clair run for 1 yd to the Nwest 47Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
27.6%
Hunter Johnson run for 2 yds to the Nwest 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
26.8%
Anthony Tyus III run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nwest 48Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+5
26.0%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the MchSt 47Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+5
26.0%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 5 yds to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+4
25.9%
Stephon Robinson Jr. run for 4 yds to the MchSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+25
25.4%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 25 yds to the MchSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
25.4%
Anthony Tyus III run for 2 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 8
OPP 11
0
25.2%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Anthony Tyus IIISimilar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+7
24.1%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Raymond Niro III for 7 yds to the MchSt 4Similar
Q2 2:07
4TH & 1
OPP 4
+2
23.8%
Hunter Johnson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
24.6%
Anthony Tyus III run for 1 yd to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.6%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Charlie MangieriSimilar
Q2 1:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.0%
Anthony Tyus III run for no gain to the MchSt 1Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
32.2%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Trey Pugh for 1 yd for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 13DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:4571% → 75%
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
29.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for 9 yds to the MchSt 34Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
28.0%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 7 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
26.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 3 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q2 0:10
2ND & 7
OWN 44
0
26.3%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q2 0:05
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+14
25.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for 14 yds to the Nwest 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
24.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+12
24.6%
Matt Coghlin 60 yd FG RETURNED , Brandon Joseph return for 12 yds to the Nwest 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 14MISSED FG
8 plays · 49 yds · 3:1330% → 27%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+49
29.6%
Evan Hull run for 49 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+9
32.1%
Evan Hull run for 9 yds to the MchSt 11Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 1
OPP 11
+2
31.9%
Malik Washington run for 2 yds to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
31.7%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 14Similar
Q3 12:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+2
30.5%
Evan Hull run for 2 yds to the MchSt 12Similar
Q3 12:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
+2
30.0%
Hunter Johnson run for 2 yds to the MchSt 10Similar
Q3 11:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-10
28.8%
Hunter Johnson sacked by Xavier Henderson for a loss of 10 yards to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 11:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 20
+38
27.1%
Charlie Kuhbander 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:0375% → 93%
Q3 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
24.7%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+5
24.2%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Connor Heyward for 5 yds to the MchSt 28Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+9
22.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 9 yds to the MchSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+26
21.1%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 26 yds to the Nwest 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-15
20.2%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Jarrett Horst) to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
19.9%
Jordon Simmons run for no gain to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
19.4%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the MchSt 48Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & 10
OWN 48
+13
19.6%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jalen Nailor for 13 yds to the Nwest 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
18.8%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 11 yds to the Nwest 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+23
18.3%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jayden Reed for 23 yds to the Nwest 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
18.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q3 7:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
6.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 1:2211% → 8%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.2%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Anthony Tyus IIISimilar
Q3 6:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+19
11.0%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Malik Washington for 19 yds to the Nwest 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
11.9%
Hunter Johnson sacked by Ronald Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Nwest 42Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 12
OWN 42
-16
8.7%
Hunter Johnson sacked by TEAM for a loss of 8 yards to the Nwest 34 NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-8 Yards) to the Nwest 34Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 20
OWN 34
0
8.2%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Charlie MangieriSimilar
Q3 5:39
4TH & 20
OWN 34
0
8.1%
Derek Adams punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the MchSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:1194% → 95%
Q3 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
5.6%
Kenneth Walker III run for 3 yds to the MchSt 21Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+5
5.4%
Jordon Simmons run for 5 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q3 4:21
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
5.4%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jordon SimmonsSimilar
Q3 4:09
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
5.5%
Bryce Baringer punt for 43 yds, downed at the Nwest 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 18TD
16 plays · 69 yds · 7:417% → 17%
Q3 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
7.4%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+13
6.9%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 13 yds to the Nwest 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
7.0%
Evan Hull run for no gain to the Nwest 48Similar
Q3 2:19
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+8
6.6%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Trey Pugh for 8 yds to the MchSt 44Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+8
6.8%
Hunter Johnson run for 8 yds to the MchSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-6
6.2%
Hunter Johnson sacked by Quavaris Crouch for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 42Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 16
OPP 42
+9
5.8%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Jacob Gill for 9 yds to the MchSt 33Similar
Q3 0:14
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+4
5.9%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 4 yds to the MchSt 29Similar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 3
OPP 29
+9
5.4%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Malik Washington for 9 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-4
5.7%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Andrew Clair for a loss of 4 yards to the MchSt 24Similar
Q4 14:03
2ND & 14
OPP 24
+4
4.7%
Hunter Johnson run for 4 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+5
4.2%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 5 yds to the MchSt 15Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+6
4.1%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 6 yds to the MchSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
4.2%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Charlie Mangieri for 2 yds to the MchSt 7Similar
Q4 11:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
4.1%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Evan Hull for 2 yds to the MchSt 5Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
16.7%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Trey Pugh for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19FG
12 plays · 59 yds · 4:4391% → 96%
Q4 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
8.9%
Payton Thorne pass complete to Tre Mosley for 3 yds to the MchSt 25Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+50
8.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 50 yds to the Nwest 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
7.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 9 yds to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 9:48
2ND & 1
OPP 16
0
7.0%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
6.8%
Kenneth Walker III run for no gain to the Nwest 16Similar
Q4 8:20
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+8
7.3%
Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the Nwest 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-10
6.2%
Thorne, Payton rush for 2 yards to the NORTHWSTRN6, PENALTY MICHIGANST holding (Hunt, Tyler) 10 yards to the NORTHWSTRN18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 18
0
6.2%
Payton Thorne pass incomplete to Jalen NailorSimilar
Q4 7:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 18
+3
6.1%
Harold Joiner run for 3 yds to the Nwest 15Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
-4
5.5%
Payton Thorne sacked by Jeremy Meiser for a loss of 4 yards to the Nwest 19Similar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 0
OPP 19
+37
4.5%
Matt Coghlin 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · -13 yds · 1:075% → 3%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
4.8%
NORTHWESTERN Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Nwest 20Similar
Q4 5:50
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
4.4%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Bryce Kirtz for 2 yds to the Nwest 22Similar
Q4 5:37
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
4.3%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Evan HullSimilar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 13
OWN 22
-10
3.3%
Johnson, Hunter pass complete to Hull, Evan for 13 yards to the NORTHWSTRN35, PENALTY NORTHWSTRN holding (Schmidt, Charlie) 10 yards to the NORTHWSTRN12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 23
OWN 12
0
3.3%
Hunter Johnson pass incomplete to Malik WashingtonSimilar
Q4 4:57
4TH & 23
OWN 12
0
3.3%
Derek Adams punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Jayden Reed at the Nwest 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 21FUMBLE
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
3.1%
Harold Joiner run for 8 yds to the Nwest 39 Harold Joiner fumbled, forced by A.J. Hampton Jr., recovered by Nwest Sean McLaughlinSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 22TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:033% → 12%
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
3.3%
Evan Hull run for 9 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+8
3.6%
Evan Hull run for 8 yds to the MchSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+8
3.4%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Raymond Niro III for 8 yds to the MchSt 36Similar
Q4 3:45
2ND & 2
OPP 36
+4
3.6%
Evan Hull run for 4 yds to the MchSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
3.8%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Evan Hull for 5 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 2:50
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+4
3.8%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Malik Washington for 4 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+9
3.6%
Andrew Clair run for 9 yds to the MchSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
11.7%
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Stephon Robinson Jr. for 14 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 23TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 0:5093% → 99%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
6.9%
Kenneth Walker III run for 4 yds to the Nwest 48Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+12
4.6%
Jayden Reed run for 12 yds to the Nwest 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+30
4.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 30 yds to the Nwest 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
1.5%
Kenneth Walker III run for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NUDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · 10 yds · 1:042% → 2%
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
2.2%
Marcus Cisco run for 5 yds to the Nwest 30Similar
Q4 0:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
2.3%
Marcus Cisco run for 1 yd to the Nwest 31Similar
Q4 0:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
2.2%
Marcus Cisco run for 4 yds to the Nwest 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:45
Payton Thorne pass complete to Jordon Simmons for 14 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-12.7
TD · Q4 11:17
Hunter Johnson pass complete to Trey Pugh for 5 yds for a TD, (Charlie Kuhbander KICK)
+12.6
TD · Q3 7:06
Kenneth Walker III run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Coghlin KICK)
-11.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com