Maryland

Profile vs. FBS, 2021

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.2064th
  Defense+0.1829th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense48.6%89th
  Defense43.8%35th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.2129th
  Defense+1.2458th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0728th
  Defense+0.1339th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.3071st
  Defense+0.2533rd
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense54.9%92nd
  Defense48.4%42nd
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense32.2%62nd
  Defense32.9%33rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.9229th
  Defense3.0251st
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense18.8%26th
  Defense15.8%39th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense14.5%71st
  Defense14.3%19th

Percentiles among the 130 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2021

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Maryland allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   WVU
2. W
   HOW
3. W
   ILL
4. W
   KENT
5. L
   IOWA
6. L
   OSU
7. L
   MINN
8. W
   IU
9. L
   PSU
10. L
    MSU
11. L
    MICH
12. W
    RUTG
13. W
    VT

Bars above the line: better than expected for Maryland.

Players, 2021

1. Taulia TagovailoaQB411 plays · +0.265 pts/play · 30th of 219 QBs
   2.04WAR1.28 to 2.95
2. Tayon Fleet-DavisRB130 plays · +0.170 pts/play · 95th of 387 RBs
   0.41WAR0.31 to 0.50
3. Rakim JarrettWR66 plays · +0.176 pts/play · 52nd of 474 WRs
   0.22WAR0.14 to 0.30
4. Challen FaamatauRB43 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 256th of 387 RBs
   0.14WAR0.11 to 0.17
5. Isaiah JacobsRB30 plays · +0.174 pts/play · 295th of 387 RBs
   0.10WAR0.08 to 0.12
6. Anthony PecorellaP24 plays · +0.166 pts/play · 71st of 101 punters
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.13
7. Dontay Demus Jr.WR23 plays · +0.168 pts/play · 299th of 474 WRs
   0.07WAR0.04 to 0.10
8. Joseph PetrinoPK16 plays · +0.224 pts/play · 78th of 128 kickers
   0.07WAR0.03 to 0.11

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Maryland's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2021

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  70670633rd of 130Roster talent: 706, 33rd of 130 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  21321329th of 130Recruiting: 213, 29th of 130 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  65%65%80th of 128Returning production: 65%, 80th of 128 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  +6.2+6.260th of 130SP+ rating: +6.2, 60th of 130 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 130 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2021

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Maryland's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 5 clear-cut ones account for 0.12 of the 0.16 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. at ILLQ3 0:18 4th & 1 at MD 42, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−3.8 pts
2. vs PSUQ4 10:28 4th & 7 at PSU 33, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.8 pts
3. at RUTGQ2 9:34 4th & 1 at MD 25, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
4. vs WVUQ3 1:46 4th & 2 at MD 20, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
5. at RUTGQ1 0:00 4th & 1 at MD 12, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
6. vs WVUQ3 6:11 4th & 2 at MD 25, down 1Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.9 pts
7. at RUTGQ2 11:56 4th & 2 at MD 43, up 17Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.8 pts
8. vs WVUQ2 0:27 4th & 3 at WVU 3, down 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2021

43rd of 130 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Maryland's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. W

   WVU
2. W

   HOW
3. W

   ILL
4. W

   KENT
5. L

   IOWA
6. L

   OSU
7. L

   MINN
8. W

   IU
9. L

   PSU
10. L

    MSU
11. L

    MICH
12. W

    RUTG
13. W

    VT

What moved it, 2021

Every game starts at Maryland's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.43
• Possession & field position+0.01
• Clock−0.01
• Timeouts+0.06
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.04

Game by game

• WVUW 30-24 vs WVU43% → 97%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +53: Scoreboard +39, Timeouts +3
• HOWW 62-0 vs HOW100% → 100%Before kickoff +50 · On the field 0: Scoreboard +1
• ILLW 20-17 at ILL71% → 3%Before kickoff +21 · On the field −68: Scoreboard −46, Possession & field position +2
• KENTW 37-16 vs KENT83% → 100%Before kickoff +33 · On the field +16: Scoreboard +21
• IOWAL 14-51 vs IOWA45% → 0%Before kickoff −5 · On the field −45: Scoreboard −48, Clock −1
• OSUL 17-66 at OSU9% → 0%Before kickoff −41 · On the field −9: Scoreboard −11
• MINNL 16-34 at MINN39% → 0%Before kickoff −11 · On the field −39: Scoreboard −41, Timeouts +2
• IUW 38-35 vs IU62% → 95%Before kickoff +12 · On the field +33: Scoreboard +31, Timeouts +2
• PSUL 14-31 vs PSU25% → 2%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −24: Scoreboard −34, Clock −2
• MSUL 21-40 at MSU25% → 1%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −25: Scoreboard −27, Timeouts −1
• MICHL 18-59 vs MICH16% → 0%Before kickoff −34 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −21
• RUTGW 40-16 at RUTG46% → 100%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +54: Scoreboard +54, Clock +3
• VTW 54-10 at VT65% → 100%Before kickoff +15 · On the field +34: Scoreboard +40

Points of win probability, from Maryland's side.

Closest call

MD 20-17 ILL (2021) - Maryland dropped to a 1.0% win probability before pulling it out.