Try the model
MD

Maryland 40 at Rutgers 16

RUTG
2021 · Week 13 · Nov 27, 2021 · SHI Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · RUTG
modelRUTG aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playRUTG scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:00 · run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingPregame prior
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:13: Taulia Tagovailoa 10 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick) — MD win probability +6.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:34: Johnny Langan 1 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick) — RUTG win probability +9.5 pts (now 36%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:53: Corey Dyches 11 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino PAT failed) — MD win probability +13.6 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:18: Aaron Young 3 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick) — RUTG win probability +10.6 pts (now 34%) (top driver: RUTG has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:51: Tayon Fleet-Davis 13 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick) — MD win probability +12.8 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
RUTG made the numbers' call on 7 of 8MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 6
  1. Q1 9:28RUTG 4th & 9 at RUTG 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:30RUTG 4th & 3 at MD 3, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.8%
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    43.2%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    39.6%−4.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:00MD 4th & 1 at MD 12, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:56MD 4th & 2 at MD 43, up 17
    Close callPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:03RUTG 4th & 5 at RUTG 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:34MD 4th & 1 at MD 25, up 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.3%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:11RUTG 4th & 7 at MD 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    35.9%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:38RUTG 4th & 1 at RUTG 34, down 18
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.4%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:02MD 4th & 14 at RUTG 14, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−2.3
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    71.7%−8.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:56MD 4th & 7 at MD 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%−1.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:07RUTG 4th & 3 at MD 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    25.8%−3.7
    27% to make
    Punt
    27.7%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:02RUTG 4th & 1 at MD 1, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    6.0%−4.0
    94% to make
    Punt
    -1.2%−11.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:22RUTG 4th & 7 at RUTG 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:42MD 4th & 1 at RUTG 49, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.3%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
RUTG made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MD made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:42MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:32MD Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    48.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:34RUTG Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:53MD Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    80.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:18RUTG Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 14:51MD Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:17MD Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MDDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1846% → 47%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
53.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 7 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
53.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 5 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
53.9%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 1 yd to the Mary 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
53.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Carlos CarriereSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+20
53.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 20 yds to the Rutgr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
53.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 3 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
53.9%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+10
53.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 10 yds to the Rutgr 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
52.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 25 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 2:0953% → 52%
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
53.0%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 19Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 9
OWN 19
+9
53.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Shameen Jones for 9 yds to the Rutgr 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
53.0%
Isaih Pacheco run for no gain to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q1 11:37
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+1
53.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 1 yd to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q1 11:37
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
52.9%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Bo MeltonSimilar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 9
OWN 29
0
52.0%
Adam Korsak punt for 54 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for no gain to the Mary 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 3TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:5648% → 52%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+30
52.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 30 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
51.9%
PENALTY UMD False Start (Anderson,Spencer) 5 yards from UMD45 to UMD40. NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+6
52.2%
Colby McDonald run for 6 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+3
51.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 3 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+8
51.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 8 yds to the Rutgr 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
51.8%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q1 6:32
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+38
48.2%
Brian Cobbs 38 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino PAT blocked)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 4DOWNS
12 plays · 66 yds · 4:5446% → 42%
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
45.5%
Isaih Pacheco run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 39Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+31
46.0%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 31 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
46.5%
Isaih Pacheco run for 8 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 2
OPP 22
+1
46.9%
Isaih Pacheco run for 1 yd to the Mary 21Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
46.2%
Isaih Pacheco run for 2 yds to the Mary 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
46.5%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Johnny LanganSimilar
Q1 6:24
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+11
46.5%
Aaron Young run for 11 yds to the Mary 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
46.8%
Aaron Young run for 1 yd to the Mary 7Similar
Q1 6:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
46.5%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 1 yd to the Mary 8Similar
Q1 6:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
46.3%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 5 yds to the Mary 3Similar
Q1 1:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
0
42.3%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Bo MeltonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:3060% → 60%
Q1 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+4
40.4%
Colby McDonald run for 4 yds to the Mary 7Similar
Q1 1:30
2ND & 6
OWN 7
+5
40.4%
Colby McDonald run for 5 yds to the Mary 12Similar
Q1 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 12
0
40.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Brian CobbsSimilar
Q1 0:00
4TH & 1
OWN 12
+4
39.6%
Colton Spangler punt for 55 yds , Bo Melton returns for 4 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 6INT
4 plays · 15 yds · 1:3740% → 40%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+11
40.4%
Bo Melton run for 11 yds to the Rutgr 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
41.1%
Noah Vedral run for no gain to the Rutgr 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
41.0%
Bo Melton run for 4 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
39.9%
Noah Vedral pass interceptedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:2764% → 66%
Q2 13:23
1ST & 8
OWN 37
+4
35.9%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 4 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 12
OWN 33
0
36.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Rakim JarrettSimilar
Q2 13:23
3RD & 12
OWN 33
+10
36.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 10 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q2 11:56
4TH & 2
OWN 43
+13
34.4%
Colton Spangler punt for 38 yds , Bo Melton returns for 13 yds to the Rutgr 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:5338% → 36%
Q2 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
37.5%
Evan Simon pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
Q2 11:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
37.4%
Isaih Pacheco run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q2 11:56
3RD & 5
OWN 37
0
38.0%
Evan Simon pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
Q2 11:03
4TH & 5
OWN 37
0
36.4%
Adam Korsak punt for 47 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2967% → 67%
Q2 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
33.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Rakim JarrettSimilar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+5
33.6%
Colby McDonald run for 5 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q2 11:03
3RD & 5
OWN 21
+4
33.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 4 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 9:34
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
33.2%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Avery Young at the Rutgr 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 10DOWNS
6 plays · 38 yds · 2:2336% → 36%
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
35.5%
Johnny Langan run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 30Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+31
35.6%
Johnny Langan pass complete to Shameen Jones for 31 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:34
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
37.0%
Aaron Young run for 1 yd to the Mary 38Similar
Q2 9:34
2ND & 9
OPP 38
0
36.9%
Noah Vedral pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+2
36.7%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Bo Melton for 2 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 7:11
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
35.5%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11TD
8 plays · 64 yds · 2:5870% → 77%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
30.1%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 3 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
29.8%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for no gain to the Mary 39Similar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+20
30.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 20 yds to the Rutgr 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
29.5%
MARYLAND Penalty, Intentional Grounding (-10 Yards) to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 7:11
2ND & 20
OWN 49
0
29.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Rakim JarrettSimilar
Q2 7:11
3RD & 20
OWN 49
+26
30.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 26 yds to the Rutgr 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+15
29.4%
Colby McDonald run for 15 yds to the Rutgr 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
22.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa 10 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3529% → 27%
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
29.0%
Noah Vedral pass incomplete to Isaiah WashingtonSimilar
Q2 4:13
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
28.8%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Joshua Youngblood for 8 yds to the Rutgr 33Similar
Q2 4:13
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
29.6%
Noah Vedral pass complete to Aaron Young for 1 yd to the Rutgr 34Similar
Q2 2:38
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
27.3%
Adam Korsak punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13MISSED FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 2:3677% → 83%
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
23.5%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 5 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+6
23.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 6 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+22
22.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 22 yds to the Rutgr 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
22.3%
PENALTY UMD False Start (Duncan,Jaelyn) 5 yards from RUT39 to RUT44. NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 15
OPP 44
0
22.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Rakim JarrettSimilar
Q2 2:38
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+18
22.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 18 yds to the Rutgr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+25
21.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 25 yds to the Rutgr 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
17.1%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for no gain to the Rutgr 1Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-7
16.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Avery Young for a loss of 7 yards to the Rutgr 8Similar
Q2 0:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
15.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 14Similar
Q2 0:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
17.3%
Joseph Petrino 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -4 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
24.2%
run for a loss of 4 yards to the Rutgr 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 15TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 3:2023% → 36%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
23.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Jovani Haskins for 7 yds to the Rutgr 37Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+8
24.2%
Christian Dremel run for 8 yds to the Rutgr 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
25.0%
Evan Simon pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 7 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+23
25.8%
Isaih Pacheco run for 23 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
26.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, Personal Foul (8 Yards) to the Mary 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
26.1%
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the Mary 5Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
26.1%
Isaih Pacheco run for 4 yds to the Mary 1Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.6%
Johnny Langan 1 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4167% → 83%
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+43
32.7%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 43 yds to the Rutgr 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
30.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 28Similar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+1
30.8%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 29Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+16
31.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 16 yds to the Rutgr 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
30.8%
Colby McDonald run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 11Similar
Q3 8:53
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+11
17.2%
Corey Dyches 11 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 17TD
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:2623% → 34%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
22.5%
Isaih Pacheco run for 5 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 5
OPP 32
+12
23.2%
Bo Melton run for 12 yds to the Mary 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
23.2%
Isaih Pacheco run for 11 yds to the Mary 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
23.2%
Isaih Pacheco run for 6 yds to the Mary 3Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
33.8%
Aaron Young 3 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2270% → 71%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.7%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the Mary 26Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
29.9%
Colby McDonald run for 2 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
30.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Rakim JarrettSimilar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
29.3%
Colton Spangler punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 19DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:4929% → 28%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
29.1%
Bo Melton run for 9 yds to the Rutgr 46Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+3
30.6%
Isaih Pacheco run for 3 yds to the Rutgr 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
30.7%
Evan Simon pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 7 yds to the Mary 44Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 3
OPP 44
0
31.4%
Aaron Young run for no gain to the Mary 44Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 3
OPP 44
0
31.1%
Evan Simon pass incomplete to Shameen JonesSimilar
Q3 3:07
4TH & 3
OPP 44
0
27.9%
Evan Simon pass incomplete to Joshua YoungbloodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:1676% → 91%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
24.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 7 yds to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+6
24.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 6 yds to the Rutgr 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
24.2%
PENALTY UMD False Start (Anderson,Spencer) 5 yards from RUT43 to RUT48. NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 15
OPP 48
0
24.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Chigoziem OkonkwoSimilar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 15
OPP 48
+10
24.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 10 yds to the Rutgr 38Similar
Q3 3:07
3RD & 5
OPP 38
+23
24.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 23 yds to the Rutgr 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
21.6%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 13
0
21.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Chigoziem OkonkwoSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 8
OPP 13
+13
8.8%
Tayon Fleet-Davis 13 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 21DOWNS
9 plays · 76 yds · 3:4212% → 9%
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
12.4%
Evan Simon pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+20
12.3%
Evan Simon pass complete to Bo Melton for 20 yds to the Rutgr 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
13.7%
Evan Simon run for 9 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+6
14.8%
Evan Simon run for 6 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+33
14.4%
Evan Simon pass complete to Isaiah Washington for 33 yds to the Mary 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
15.9%
Evan Simon run for 2 yds to the Mary 7Similar
Q4 14:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
15.9%
Aaron Young run for 3 yds to the Mary 4Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
15.0%
Johnny Langan run for 3 yds to the Mary 1Similar
Q4 11:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
9.4%
Johnny Langan run for no gain to the Mary 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22TD
10 plays · 98 yds · 4:4593% → 99%
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
7.1%
PENALTY UMD False Start (Duncan,Jaelyn) 1 yard from UMD02 to UMD01. NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 11
OWN 1
+41
7.1%
Colby McDonald run for 41 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
6.6%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 4 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+18
6.5%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 18 yds to the Rutgr 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
6.4%
Colby McDonald run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+5
6.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
6.3%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the Rutgr 25Similar
Q4 11:02
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+4
6.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 4 yds to the Rutgr 21Similar
Q4 11:02
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+19
6.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 19 yds to the Rutgr 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.1%
Tayon Fleet-Davis 2 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RUTGDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:501% → 1%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
1.3%
Evan Simon pass incomplete to Bo MeltonSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
1.3%
Evan Simon pass incomplete to Matt AlaimoSimilar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+3
1.2%
Evan Simon pass complete to Isaih Pacheco for 3 yds to the Rutgr 31Similar
Q4 5:22
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
1.2%
Adam Korsak punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the Mary 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24END OF GAME
9 plays · 21 yds · 5:2299% → 100%
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
1.1%
Colby McDonald run for 2 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+12
1.1%
Colby McDonald run for 12 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
1.0%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the Mary 41Similar
Q4 5:22
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+5
1.0%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 5 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q4 5:22
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+5
1.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 5 yds to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 1
OPP 49
+2
0.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 2 yds to the Rutgr 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
0.3%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Rutgr 49Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-2
0.3%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:53
Corey Dyches 11 Yd pass from Taulia Tagovailoa (Joseph Petrino PAT failed)
-13.6
TD · Q4 14:51
Tayon Fleet-Davis 13 Yd Run (Joseph Petrino Kick)
-12.8
TD · Q3 6:18
Aaron Young 3 Yd Run (Valentino Ambrosio Kick)
+10.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com