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PSU

Penn State 31 at Maryland 14

MD
2021 · Week 10 · Nov 6, 2021 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadPSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scorePSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 6:40 · Colton Spangler punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 69Pregame prior−16.3Home team on offense−4.8Score differential−1.6Garbage-time factor−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:15: Challen Faamatau run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino PAT MISSED) — MD win probability +10.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:51: S. Clifford pass,to J. Dotson for 21 yds for a TD, (J. Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +13.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:56: T. Tagovailoa pass,to C. Dyches for 13 yds for a TD, (T. Tagovailoa pass to C. Okonkwo for Two-Point Conversion) — MD win probability +28.6 pts (now 56%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:55: S. Clifford pass,to J. Dotson for 86 yds for a TD, (J. Stout KICK) — PSU win probability +23.1 pts (now 78%) (top driver: PSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:39: Ji'Ayir Brown 87 Yd Interception Return (Jordan Stout Kick) — PSU win probability +10.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 7 of 10PSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 14:00PSU 4th & 17 at PSU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:18MD 4th & 22 at PSU 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−0.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    28.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:23PSU 4th & 14 at PSU 16, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:28MD 4th & 6 at MD 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:41MD 4th & 11 at MD 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:24PSU 4th & 1 at MD 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%−1.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:58MD 4th & 8 at MD 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:00PSU 4th & 10 at MD 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%−0.5
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 6:40MD 4th & 3 at MD 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.1%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:56PSU 4th & 9 at MD 42, up 7
    Close callPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%−0.4
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:34MD 4th & 10 at PSU 36, down 1
    Close callPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.3%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    38.5%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:06PSU 4th & 14 at PSU 8, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%−3.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.0%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:06MD 4th & 3 at PSU 22, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    23.1%−0.9
    72% to make
    Punt
    14.0%−10.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:58MD 4th & 12 at MD 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%−3.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:42PSU 4th & 8 at PSU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−1.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:28MD 4th & 7 at PSU 33, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsPunted · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    23.7%−0.3
    49% to make
    PuntTheir call
    21.2%−2.8
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:33PSU 4th & 5 at MD 6, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.7%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.7%−<0.1
    91% to make
    Punt
    72.2%−9.5
    average punt
  18. Q4 0:26MD 4th & 4 at PSU 37, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 2PSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 7:55PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 1:15MD Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    37.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:51PSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:56MD Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    41.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:55PSU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:39PSU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
PSUDrive 1PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 1:0075% → 74%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
25.3%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
-7
25.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to John Lovett for a loss of 7 yards to the PnSt 15Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 15
0
25.3%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:00
4TH & 17
OWN 15
0
25.8%
Jordan Stout punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the Mary 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 2:4226% → 27%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
25.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Marcus Fleming for 6 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+14
25.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 14 yds to the PnSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
25.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 7 yds to the PnSt 27Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+3
25.9%
Challen Faamatau run for 3 yds to the PnSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-2
25.9%
Challen Faamatau run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 14:00
2ND & 12
OPP 26
+8
25.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 8 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q1 11:18
4TH & 22
OPP 36
0
27.0%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 36 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:5573% → 72%
Q1 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
27.1%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-4
27.1%
John Lovett run for a loss of 4 yards to the PnSt 16Similar
Q1 11:18
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
27.2%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:23
4TH & 14
OWN 16
+59
27.8%
Jordan Stout punt for 49 yds MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Mary 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5528% → 28%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
27.6%
Challen Faamatau run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 24Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
27.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 5 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q1 10:23
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
27.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:28
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+12
27.7%
Colton Spangler punt for 58 yds , Jahan Dotson returns for 12 yds to the PnSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 5TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:3372% → 74%
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
28.0%
Keyvone Lee run for 1 yd to the PnSt 26Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+30
28.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 30 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
27.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+38
25.8%
S. Clifford pass,to J. Dotson for 38 yds for a TD, (J. Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 24 yds · 3:1427% → 27%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
26.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Marcus Fleming for 5 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
26.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for no gain to the Mary 30Similar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+9
26.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 9 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
26.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
26.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
50
0
27.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Arnold Ebiketie for 0 yards to the Mary 42Similar
Q1 7:55
2ND & 18
OWN 42
0
26.6%
MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive Holding (Aric Harris) declinedSimilar
Q1 7:55
3RD & 18
OWN 42
+7
26.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Challen Faamatau for 7 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q1 4:41
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
26.8%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 5:1773% → 73%
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
26.8%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the PnSt 21Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+16
26.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 16 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
26.4%
Noah Cain run for 8 yds to the PnSt 45Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
26.1%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
26.1%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 5 yds to the Mary 47Similar
Q1 4:41
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+5
26.0%
Noah Cain run for 5 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
26.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Malick Meiga for 3 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+1
26.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 1 yd to the Mary 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 38
+5
26.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q2 14:24
4TH & 1
OPP 33
0
26.8%
run for no gain to the Mary 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 1:2628% → 28%
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
27.8%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 9 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+2
28.7%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 2 yds to the Mary 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
28.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 2 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q2 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
28.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:24
3RD & 8
OWN 46
0
27.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:58
4TH & 8
OWN 46
0
27.5%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 9PUNT
14 plays · 44 yds · 3:5873% → 73%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
27.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to John Lovett for 5 yds to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 5
OWN 19
0
27.4%
Sean Clifford run for no gain to the PnSt 19Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 5
OWN 19
+13
27.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 13 yds to the PnSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
26.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 9 yds to the PnSt 41 MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Substitution ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 1
OWN 41
0
26.4%
Sean Clifford sacked by Greg Rose for 0 yards to the PnSt 34Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+12
27.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 12 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
26.3%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
26.4%
PENN ST Penalty, Delay Of Game (Jaquan Brisker) to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
27.1%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+17
27.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 17 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
26.1%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:58
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
26.1%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 10
OPP 42
0
26.4%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:00
4TH & 10
OPP 42
0
27.4%
Jordan Stout punt for 28 yds, downed at the Mary 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 2:2028% → 27%
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+2
27.9%
Peny Boone run for 2 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 8
OWN 16
+7
28.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 7 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+1
27.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 1 yd to the Mary 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
28.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 5 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q2 9:00
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+3
28.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 3 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q2 9:00
3RD & 2
OWN 32
-1
28.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 31Similar
Q2 6:40
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
27.0%
Colton Spangler punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 3:4474% → 74%
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
26.2%
Noah Cain run for 9 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+2
25.3%
Noah Cain run for 2 yds to the PnSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
25.4%
Sean Clifford sacked by Tyler Baylor for 0 yards to the PnSt 45Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 11
OWN 45
+4
25.7%
Noah Cain run for 4 yds to the PnSt 49Similar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+8
25.5%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 8 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
25.1%
Noah Cain run for 1 yd to the Mary 42Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 9
OPP 42
0
25.1%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:40
3RD & 9
OPP 42
0
25.4%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:56
4TH & 9
OPP 42
0
25.9%
Jordan Stout punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Tarheeb Still at the Mary 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 1:4128% → 42%
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
27.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+11
27.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 11 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
27.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 20 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
29.5%
Challen Faamatau run for 3 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q2 2:56
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+15
30.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 15 yds to the PnSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+11
30.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 11 yds to the PnSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+14
31.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 14 yds to the PnSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+10
31.6%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass to the left incomplete intended for COBBS, Brian thrown to the PSU0. PENALTY PSU Pass Interference on ELLIS, Keaton enforced 10 yards to the PSU2 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q2 1:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
41.6%
Challen Faamatau run for 2 yds for a TD, (Joseph Petrino PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 13END OF HALF
7 plays · 21 yds · 1:1565% → 66%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
35.1%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the PnSt 30Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
34.5%
John Lovett run for 5 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
34.6%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
34.9%
John Lovett run for 6 yds to the PnSt 41Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+7
34.0%
John Lovett run for 7 yds to the PnSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
33.8%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:2638% → 38%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
37.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Marcus Fleming for 9 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+15
39.8%
Challen Faamatau run for 15 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
40.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 4 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+4
41.1%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 4 yds to the PnSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+7
40.6%
Challen Faamatau run for 7 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
41.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
41.1%
Reece Udinski pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 36
0
40.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 10
OPP 36
0
37.9%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 31 yds, downed at the PnSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 15TD
14 plays · 95 yds · 5:4363% → 80%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
37.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 4 yds to the PnSt 9Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 6
OWN 9
+3
37.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 3 yds to the PnSt 12Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 3
OWN 12
+4
38.3%
Sean Clifford run for 4 yds to the PnSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
36.6%
Keyvone Lee run for 2 yds to the PnSt 18Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+4
36.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 4 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 4
OWN 22
+5
37.7%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the PnSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+6
36.4%
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 4
OWN 33
+6
35.4%
Keyvone Lee run for 6 yds to the PnSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
34.8%
Keyvone Lee run for 15 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
33.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Keyvone Lee for 13 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
33.1%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+6
33.2%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Noah Cain for 6 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 4
OPP 27
+6
33.9%
Sean Clifford pass complete to KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 6 yds to the Mary 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
20.3%
S. Clifford pass,to J. Dotson for 21 yds for a TD, (J. Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16FUMBLE
7 plays · 63 yds · 2:1524% → 28%
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
24.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 9 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+11
26.5%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 11 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
26.7%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for no gain to the Mary 45Similar
Q3 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+20
25.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 20 yds to the PnSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+17
29.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 17 yds to the PnSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+8
29.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 8 yds to the PnSt 10Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 2
OPP 10
-2
27.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 12 fumbled, recovered by PnSt Ji'Ayir BrownSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 4:3677% → 79%
Q3 4:36
2ND & 15
OWN 7
+1
23.0%
John Lovett run for 1 yd to the PnSt 8Similar
Q3 4:36
3RD & 14
OWN 8
0
23.8%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & 19
OWN 3
+4
22.8%
John Lovett run for 4 yds to the PnSt 7Similar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 14
OWN 8
-2
23.3%
Jordan Stout punt for 42 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 48Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
20.4%
PENN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ji'Ayir Brown) to the PnSt 6Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 16
OWN 6
0
20.7%
PENN ST Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jaquan Brisker) to the PnSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18TD
11 plays · 52 yds · 3:1025% → 56%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
24.8%
Challen Faamatau run for 4 yds to the PnSt 48Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+4
25.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Marcus Fleming for 4 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+3
25.5%
Challen Faamatau run for 3 yds to the PnSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
25.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 12 yds to the PnSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
27.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 7 yds to the PnSt 22Similar
Q3 3:06
2ND & 3
OPP 22
0
27.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:06
3RD & 3
OPP 22
0
25.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:06
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+8
23.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 8 yds to the PnSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
27.3%
Challen Faamatau run for 1 yd to the PnSt 13Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 9
OPP 13
+13
55.9%
T. Tagovailoa pass,to C. Dyches for 13 yds for a TD, (T. Tagovailoa pass to C. Okonkwo for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 19TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:5455% → 78%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
44.7%
Sean Clifford sacked by Greg Rose for 0 yards to the PnSt 14Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 18
OWN 14
+86
21.6%
S. Clifford pass,to J. Dotson for 86 yds for a TD, (J. Stout KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5724% → 22%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
24.1%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 23Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
23.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:55
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
22.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:58
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
21.5%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Jahan Dotson at the PnSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:1680% → 77%
Q4 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
20.3%
Noah Cain run for 3 yds to the PnSt 29Similar
Q4 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-1
19.7%
Noah Cain run for a loss of 1 yard to the PnSt 28Similar
Q4 12:58
3RD & 8
OWN 28
0
21.8%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:42
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
22.9%
Jordan Stout punt for 22 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 17 yds · 1:1428% → 24%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
50
+14
28.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Marcus Fleming for 14 yds to the PnSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
29.1%
Challen Faamatau run for 3 yds to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
30.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for no gain to the PnSt 33Similar
Q4 11:42
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
28.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
4TH & 7
OPP 33
0
23.7%
Anthony Pecorella punt for 33 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 23FG
12 plays · 74 yds · 3:5581% → 90%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
19.0%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
19.4%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 3 yds to the PnSt 23Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+8
19.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Parker Washington for 8 yds to the PnSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
17.7%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
18.5%
Keyvone Lee run for 11 yds to the PnSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
16.3%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Theo Johnson for 2 yds to the PnSt 44Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
16.4%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+45
16.8%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 45 yds to the Mary 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
15.0%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+5
15.0%
Sean Clifford pass complete to Jahan Dotson for 5 yds to the Mary 6Similar
Q4 10:28
3RD & 5
OPP 6
0
15.5%
Sean Clifford pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:33
4TH & 5
OPP 6
+24
10.4%
Jordan Stout 24 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24INT TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:5011% → 4%
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+14
10.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 14 yds to the Mary 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
11.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 6 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+5
11.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 5 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
11.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 6 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-5
13.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (Jaelyn Duncan) to the Mary 38Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 9
OWN 38
-10
11.8%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass up the middle complete for 26 yards to JARRETT, Rakim caught at the PSU44 and advanced to the PSU36 (SMITH, Brandon). PENALTY UMD Holding on LUNSFORD, Mason enforced 10 yards from the UMD38 to the UMD28 [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 6:29
2ND & 19
OWN 28
+13
10.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 13 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q4 6:29
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
12.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 6
OWN 41
+10
9.0%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass to the right intercepted by BRISKER, Jaquan at the PSU43 intended for FLEET-DAVIS, Tayon. Brisker return for -1 yard to the PSU42, out of bounds. PENALTY PSU Holding on PORTER JR., Joey enforced 10 yards from the UMD41 to the PSU49 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
11.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Challen Faamatau for 9 yds to the PnSt 40Similar
Q4 4:03
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+5
12.0%
FAAMATAU, Challen rush up the middle for a gain of 3 yards to the PSU37 (TANGELO, Derrick). PENALTY Before the snap, PSU Illegal Substitution enforced 5 yards from the PSU40 to the PSU35 and results in a 1ST DOWN. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
13.2%
TAGOVAILOA, Taulia pass to the right incomplete intended for JARRETT, Rakim thrown to the PSU10. PENALTY PSU Pass Interference on PORTER JR., Joey enforced 15 yards to the PSU20 and results in automatic 1ST DOWN [NHSG]. NO PLAY (replay the down).Similar
Q4 4:03
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
13.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 7 yds to the PnSt 13Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 3
OPP 13
-87
3.5%
Ji'Ayir Brown 87 Yd Interception Return (Jordan Stout Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 38 yds · 2:133% → 2%
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
2.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Corey Dyches for 8 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+10
2.7%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 10 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
2.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 14 yds to the PnSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-9
3.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for a loss of 9 yards to the Mary 48 fumbled, recovered by Mary Taulia TagovailoaSimilar
Q4 2:39
2ND & 19
OWN 48
+5
2.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to CJ Dippre for 5 yds to the PnSt 47Similar
Q4 2:39
3RD & 14
OPP 47
+10
2.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to CJ Dippre for 10 yds to the PnSt 37Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 4
OPP 37
0
2.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PSUDrive 26Uncategorized
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-2
1.5%
run for a loss of 2 yards to the PnSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:56
T. Tagovailoa pass,to C. Dyches for 13 yds for a TD, (T. Tagovailoa pass to C. Okonkwo for Two-Point Conversion)
+28.6
TD · Q4 13:55
S. Clifford pass,to J. Dotson for 86 yds for a TD, (J. Stout KICK)
-23.1
TD · Q3 6:51
S. Clifford pass,to J. Dotson for 21 yds for a TD, (J. Stout KICK)
-13.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com