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MICH

Michigan 59 at Maryland 18

MD
2021 · Week 12 · Nov 20, 2021 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadMICH aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreMICH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:40 · Colton Spangler punt for 42 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the Mich 37 A.J. Henning fumbled, recovered by Mich A.J. Henning
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+58.5+29.30−29.3−58.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 91Home team on offense−15.0Pregame prior−21.7Score differential−9.5Garbage-time factor−5.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:08: Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +2.9 pts (now 85%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:51: J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 13 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +8.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 4:51: Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 7 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK) — MD win probability +3.1 pts (now 5%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:38: Joseph Petrino kickoff for 44 yds , Michael Barrett return for no gain , A.J. Henning return for 79 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK) — MICH win probability +3.9 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:22: Taulia Tagovailoa run for 17 yds for a TD (T. Tagovailoa Run For Two-point Conversion) — MD win probability +3.8 pts (now 5%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 9 of 10MICH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 13:26MICH 4th & 5 at MICH 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.3%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:34MD 4th & 4 at MICH 30, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.7%−<0.1
    56% to make
    Punt
    18.6%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:21MD 4th & 10 at MD 25, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.6%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:08MICH 4th & 6 at MICH 37, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:14MD 4th & 16 at MD 11, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.9%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:15MICH 4th & 1 at MD 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    79.9%−0.6
    68% to make
    Punt
    78.2%−2.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:37MD 4th & 13 at MICH 13, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    13.6%−2.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:22MICH 4th & 4 at MD 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    80.5%−0.7
    34% to make
    Punt
    80.5%−0.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:22MD 4th & 5 at MD 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.1%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:40MD 4th & 14 at MD 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−1.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:11MD 4th & 2 at MICH 43, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    8.6%−1.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−0.9
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:20MD 4th & 1 at MD 34, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.4%−0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:32MD 4th & 9 at MD 26, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:22MICH 4th & 10 at MICH 45, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:25MD 4th & 19 at MD 18, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:20MICH 4th & 4 at MD 28, up 41
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 7:09MICH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:08MICH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:51MICH Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:50MICH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:51MD Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:22MD Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 1:23MICH Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 0:34MICH Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:40MICH Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2484% → 84%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
15.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mich 21Similar
Q1 14:15
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+3
16.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 5
OWN 24
0
16.3%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q1 13:26
4TH & 5
OWN 24
+6
16.4%
Brad Robbins punt for 45 yds , Tarheeb Still returns for 6 yds to the Mary 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2MISSED FG
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:3617% → 17%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
16.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
50
+14
16.8%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 14 yds to the Mich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
17.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 5 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q1 12:16
2ND & 5
OPP 31
0
17.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Rakim JarrettSimilar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+1
17.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 1 yd to the Mich 30Similar
Q1 11:34
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+48
17.4%
Joseph Petrino 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3TD
12 plays · 70 yds · 4:1583% → 83%
Q1 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
17.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 9 yds to the Mich 39Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+5
17.3%
Hassan Haskins run for 5 yds to the Mich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
17.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 7 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+10
17.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 10 yds to the Mary 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
18.0%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Carter SelzerSimilar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+8
18.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 8 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q1 8:39
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+2
18.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+12
18.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the Mary 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
18.4%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Mary 17Similar
Q1 7:24
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
18.6%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Roman WilsonSimilar
Q1 7:18
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+15
18.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 15 yds to the Mary 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
17.0%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 2 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:4818% → 18%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
17.7%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 20Similar
Q1 7:03
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
17.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Brian CobbsSimilar
Q1 6:50
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
17.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 5 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
17.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Darryl JonesSimilar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.5%
Colton Spangler punt for 45 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 3 yds to the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:0982% → 82%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
17.6%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Cornelius JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+9
17.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 9 yds to the Mich 42Similar
Q1 5:42
3RD & 1
OWN 42
-5
17.5%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 5:14
3RD & 6
OWN 37
0
18.0%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Donovan EdwardsSimilar
Q1 5:08
4TH & 6
OWN 37
0
18.3%
Brad Robbins punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Mary 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:4618% → 18%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-6
18.4%
Peny Boone run for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 11Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 16
OWN 11
0
18.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Peny BooneSimilar
Q1 4:25
3RD & 16
OWN 11
0
18.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Chigoziem OkonkwoSimilar
Q1 4:14
4TH & 16
OWN 11
+14
18.2%
Colton Spangler punt for 48 yds , A.J. Henning returns for 14 yds to the Mary 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7TD
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:5782% → 85%
Q1 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+12
17.8%
Hassan Haskins run for 12 yds to the Mary 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
18.0%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 1 yd to the Mary 32Similar
Q1 2:57
2ND & 9
OPP 32
+7
18.0%
Cade McNamara run for 7 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 2
OPP 25
+1
18.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd to the Mary 24Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
18.5%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+18
18.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Andrel Anthony for 18 yds to the Mary 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
18.1%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mary 1Similar
Q1 1:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8FG
21 plays · 68 yds · 6:2316% → 18%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
16.1%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q1 0:37
2ND & 7
OWN 21
+11
16.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 11 yds to the Mary 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
16.3%
Colby McDonald run for 5 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+11
16.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 11 yds to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
17.1%
Colby McDonald run for 6 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 4
OPP 46
+8
17.2%
Colby McDonald run for 8 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
17.2%
Colby McDonald run for 9 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 1
OPP 29
0
17.3%
Colby McDonald run for no gain to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+3
17.1%
Peny Boone run for 3 yds to the Mich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+12
17.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 12 yds to the Mich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+9
17.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 9 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 1
OPP 5
-15
17.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Mich 20Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 16
OPP 20
+15
16.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Rakim Jarrett for 15 yds to the Mich 5Similar
Q2 11:16
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+1
16.6%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the Mich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
16.9%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 8Similar
Q2 10:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-6
16.9%
MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Shift (-6 Yards) to the Mich 14Similar
Q2 10:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+1
16.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 1 yd to the Mich 13Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
16.7%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Corey DychesSimilar
Q2 9:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
16.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Corey DychesSimilar
Q2 9:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
18.4%
Joseph Petrino 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 3:5982% → 82%
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
18.2%
Hassan Haskins run for 9 yds to the Mich 34Similar
Q2 9:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
18.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 8 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
17.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Daylen Baldwin for 9 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+3
17.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 3 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-3
17.8%
Cade McNamara sacked by Nick Cross for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 49Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & 13
OPP 49
+3
17.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Daylen Baldwin for 3 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q2 6:20
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+6
17.7%
Hassan Haskins run for 6 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q2 5:22
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+2
18.1%
Cade McNamara pass complete to A.J. Henning for 2 yds to the Mary 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:4619% → 18%
Q2 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
18.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tayon Fleet-Davis for 2 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q2 4:54
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+3
18.5%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 3 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 5
OWN 43
0
18.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Brian CobbsSimilar
Q2 4:22
4TH & 5
OWN 43
0
17.8%
Anthony Pecorella punt blocked by Matt Torey blocked by Matt ToreySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11TD
4 plays · 42 yds · 1:0983% → 91%
Q2 4:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
17.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Roman Wilson for no gain to the Mary 42Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+14
17.3%
J.J. McCarthy run for 14 yds to the Mary 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
17.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Cornelius Johnson for 15 yds to the Mary 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
9.2%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 13 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 12FUMBLE
6 plays · -4 yds · 1:0012% → 12%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
11.9%
Colby McDonald run for no gain to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
11.5%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Tai Felton for 3 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-7
11.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by Vincent Gray for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 21Similar
Q2 1:40
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
11.6%
Colton Spangler punt for 42 yds , A.J. Henning returns for no gain to the Mich 37 A.J. Henning fumbled, recovered by Mich A.J. HenningSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13FG
15 plays · 42 yds · 1:2691% → 95%
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
8.6%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 4 yds to the Mich 41Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
8.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 5 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 1
OWN 46
-8
8.2%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Mich 48 MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mich 38Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 9
OWN 38
+13
8.3%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Daylen Baldwin for 13 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
7.9%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Hassan HaskinsSimilar
Q2 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
7.9%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Luke Schoonmaker for 9 yds to the Mary 40Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+4
7.3%
Cade McNamara run for 4 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+9
7.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 9 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 1
OPP 27
+18
6.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 18 yds to the Mary 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
6.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
6.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 3 yds to the Mary 6Similar
Q2 0:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-15
6.1%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Mary 21Similar
Q2 0:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
+39
5.2%
Jake Moody 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
10.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 31 yds · 2:299% → 9%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
8.9%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 8 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q3 14:25
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
9.2%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 4 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
9.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:50
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+12
9.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 12 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
9.8%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 2 yds to the Mich 49Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+4
9.7%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 4 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+2
9.6%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 2 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 2
OPP 43
-1
9.3%
Peny Boone run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 16TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:1095% → 99%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
5.2%
Cade McNamara pass complete to A.J. Henning for 9 yds A.J. Henning fumbled, forced by Lavonte Gater, recovered by Mich Hassan HaskinsSimilar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 1
OPP 47
+4
5.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
5.0%
Hassan Haskins run for 4 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q3 10:48
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+5
4.8%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Erick All for 5 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+4
4.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 4 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+25
4.7%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Roman Wilson for 25 yds to the Mary 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
4.6%
Hassan Haskins run for 2 yds to the Mary 3Similar
Q3 9:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
4.5%
Hassan Haskins run for no gain to the Mary 3Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
4.4%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive Holding (2 Yards) to the Mary 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
1.5%
Hassan Haskins run for 1 yd for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 3:392% → 5%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-10
2.1%
MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mary 16Similar
Q3 8:15
1ST & 20
OWN 16
+3
2.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Chigoziem Okonkwo for 3 yds to the Mary 19Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 17
OWN 19
+24
1.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Darryl Jones for 24 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
2.0%
Colby McDonald run for 3 yds to the Mary 46Similar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+14
1.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 14 yds to the Mich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
2.1%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 21 yds to the Mich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+9
2.1%
Colby McDonald run for 9 yds to the Mich 10Similar
Q3 5:40
2ND & 1
OPP 10
+1
1.9%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the Mich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
2.2%
Colby McDonald run for 2 yds to the Mich 7Similar
Q3 4:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
5.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Carlos Carriere for 7 yds for a TD (Joseph Petrino KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:162% → 5%
Q3 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
1.5%
MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Mary 20Similar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+25
1.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 25 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
1.2%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 4 yds to the Mary 49Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+9
1.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for 9 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+25
1.2%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 25 yds to the Mich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
1.2%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for no gain to the Mich 17Similar
Q3 2:22
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
5.0%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 17 yds for a TD (T. Tagovailoa Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20TD
4 plays · 79 yds · 0:2797% → 99%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
2.7%
Donovan Edwards run for 2 yds to the Mich 23Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
2.7%
Cade McNamara pass incomplete to Daylen BaldwinSimilar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 8
OWN 23
+77
1.5%
Cade McNamara pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 77 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21INT TD
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:392% → 0%
Q3 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
1.9%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass complete to Brian Cobbs for no gain to the Mary 25Similar
Q3 0:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-42
0.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass intercepted for a TD DJ Turner return for 42 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 22DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:550% → 0%
Q3 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
0.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 7 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q3 0:01
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+1
0.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 1 yd to the Mary 33Similar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
0.4%
Tayon Fleet-Davis run for 1 yd to the Mary 34Similar
Q4 14:20
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
0.4%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Nick DeGennaroSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 23TD
2 plays · 34 yds · 0:17100% → 100%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+29
0.5%
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Donovan Edwards for 29 yds to the Mary 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.4%
J.J. McCarthy run for 5 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:580% → 0%
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.3%
Colby McDonald run for 1 yd to the Mary 26Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
0.3%
Taulia Tagovailoa run for no gain to the Mary 26Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
0.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Chigoziem OkonkwoSimilar
Q4 12:32
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
0.2%
Colton Spangler punt for 41 yds, downed at the Mich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 1:53100% → 100%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
0.4%
Dan Villari run for 12 yds to the Mich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
0.4%
Leon Franklin run for 3 yds to the Mich 48Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-5
0.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Mich 43Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 12
OWN 43
0
0.3%
Dan Villari pass incomplete to Daylen BaldwinSimilar
Q4 10:55
3RD & 12
OWN 43
+2
0.3%
Dan Villari run for 2 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q4 10:22
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
0.3%
Brad Robbins punt for 45 yds, downed at the Mary 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:450% → 0%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
0.2%
Peny Boone run for 9 yds to the Mary 19Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+8
0.2%
Peny Boone run for 8 yds to the Mary 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-9
0.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa sacked by TJ Guy for a loss of 9 yards to the Mary 18Similar
Q4 8:36
2ND & 19
OWN 18
0
0.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Corey DychesSimilar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 19
OWN 18
0
0.2%
Taulia Tagovailoa pass incomplete to Tayon Fleet-DavisSimilar
Q4 8:25
4TH & 19
OWN 18
0
0.1%
Colton Spangler punt for 51 yds, fair catch by A.J. Henning at the Mich 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 27DOWNS
11 plays · 41 yds · 5:05100% → 100%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-10
0.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Mich 21Similar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 20
OWN 21
+5
0.2%
Danny Hughes run for 5 yds to the Mich 26Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & 15
OWN 26
0
0.2%
Dan Villari pass incomplete to Matt ToreySimilar
Q4 7:15
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+26
0.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Will Rolapp for 26 yds to the Mary 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
0.2%
Leon Franklin run for 9 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+5
0.2%
Isaiah Gash run for 5 yds to the Mary 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-5
0.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 39Similar
Q4 5:00
1ST & 15
OPP 39
+2
0.2%
Isaiah Gash run for 2 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 13
OPP 37
+3
0.2%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Danny Hughes for 3 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q4 4:00
3RD & 10
OPP 34
+6
0.1%
Alan Bowman pass complete to Daylen Baldwin for 6 yds to the Mary 28Similar
Q4 3:20
4TH & 4
OPP 28
0
0.2%
Alan Bowman pass incomplete to Danny HughesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 28END OF 4TH QUARTER
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:500% → 0%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
0.1%
Colby McDonald run for 6 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+2
0.1%
Colby McDonald run for 2 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q4 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+6
0.1%
Colby McDonald run for 6 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
0.1%
Peny Boone run for no gain to the Mary 42Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
0.1%
Colby McDonald run for no gain to the Mary 42Similar
Q4 0:10
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+6
0.1%
Colby McDonald run for 6 yds to the Mary 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:51
J.J. McCarthy pass complete to Mike Sainristil for 13 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)
-8
TD · Q3 4:38
Joseph Petrino kickoff for 44 yds , Michael Barrett return for no gain , A.J. Henning return for 79 yds for a TD (Jake Moody KICK)
-3.9
TD · Q3 2:22
Taulia Tagovailoa run for 17 yds for a TD (T. Tagovailoa Run For Two-point Conversion)
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com