Maryland

Profile vs. FBS, 2020

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.1251st
  Defense+0.1830th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense38.5%17th
  Defense42.1%58th
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.5599th
  Defense+1.2454th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.1369th
  Defense+0.239th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.1240th
  Defense+0.1268th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense44.6%27th
  Defense44.3%75th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense26.1%17th
  Defense36.9%10th
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.7635th
  Defense3.1524th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense19.7%52nd
  Defense16.3%19th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense19.0%19th
  Defense16.6%50th

Percentiles among the 127 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2020

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Maryland allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. L
   NU
2. W
   MINN
3. W
   PSU
4. L
   IU
5. L
   RUTG

Bars above the line: better than expected for Maryland.

Players, 2020

1. Taulia TagovailoaQB117 plays · +0.152 pts/play · 96th of 212 QBs
   0.33WAR0.12 to 0.53
2. Jake FunkRB60 plays · +0.220 pts/play · 133rd of 338 RBs
   0.25WAR0.21 to 0.29
3. Eric NajarianQB27 plays · +0.112 pts/play · 187th of 212 QBs
   0.06WAR0.02 to 0.09
4. Dontay Demus Jr.WR37 plays · +0.081 pts/play · 261st of 409 WRs
   0.06WAR0.01 to 0.11
5. Colton SpanglerP7 plays · +0.071 pts/play · 58th of 77 punters
   0.01WAR0.00 to 0.02
6. Lance LeGendreWR5 plays · +0.083 pts/play · 390th of 409 WRs
   0.01WAR0.00 to 0.01
7. Tayon Fleet-DavisRB1 plays · +0.119 pts/play · 331st of 338 RBs
   0.00WAR0.00 to 0.00

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Maryland's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

What it had and what it did, 2020

• Roster talent

  247Sports' talent composite: the recruiting ratings of every player on the roster, transfers included.
  64664638th of 127Roster talent: 646, 38th of 127 in FBS
• Recruiting

  Average 247Sports class score over this season's class and the three before it.
  21321330th of 127Recruiting: 213, 30th of 127 in FBS
• Returning production

  Share of last season's production (expected points added) by players still on the roster.
  64%64%62nd of 127Returning production: 64%, 62nd of 127 in FBS
• SP+ rating

  The result: Bill Connelly's opponent-adjusted rating, points per game better than an average FBS team.
  −0.1−0.171st of 127SP+ rating: −0.1, 71st of 127 in FBS

Ranks and bars among the 127 FBS teams with a talent rating this season, best first; the line in each bar is the FBS median.

Talent conversion

Conversion by season

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2020

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Maryland's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 3 clear-cut ones account for 0.04 of the 0.06 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs RUTGQ4 2:56 4th & 5 at MD 47, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
2. vs MINNQ2 5:08 4th & 2 at MINN 43, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it−1.4 pts
3. at IUQ2 7:40 4th & 1 at MD 40, down 7Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.2 pts
4. at PSUQ2 6:32 4th & 7 at PSU 41, up 14Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.7 pts
5. at IUQ2 2:34 4th & 4 at MD 45, down 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
6. at NUQ2 3:17 4th & 2 at MD 42, down 24Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.5 pts
7. at PSUQ4 2:27 4th & 1 at MD 41, up 22Punted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.2 pts
8. vs RUTGQ1 11:50 4th & 3 at RUTG 44, tiedPunted; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−0.1 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2020

29th of 127 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Maryland's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7.

1. L

   NU
2. W

   MINN
3. W

   PSU
4. L

   IU
5. L

   RUTG

What moved it, 2020

Every game starts at Maryland's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard−0.14
• Possession & field position−0.06
• Clock+0.36
• Timeouts−0.36
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff+0.95

Game by game

• NUL 3-43 at NU18% → 0%Before kickoff −32 · On the field −18: Scoreboard −21
• MINNW 45-44 vs MINN11% → 66%Before kickoff −39 · On the field +55: Timeouts −17, Clock +15
• PSUW 35-19 at PSU4% → 99%Before kickoff −46 · On the field +95: Scoreboard +58, Clock +4
• IUL 11-27 at IU23% → 1%Before kickoff −27 · On the field −22: Scoreboard −26
• RUTGL 24-27 vs RUTG58% → 23%Before kickoff +8 · On the field −35: Scoreboard −33, Timeouts −19

Points of win probability, from Maryland's side.

Closest call

MD 20-17 ILL (2021) - Maryland dropped to a 1.0% win probability before pulling it out.