Maryland

Profile vs. FBS, 2014

Farther out is better on every spoke. Dashed ring: the FBS median.

• EPA per play

  Expected points added on an average snap: how much each play moved the scoring odds.
  Offense+0.0413th
  Defense+0.1165th
• Success rate

  Share of snaps that stayed on schedule: half the yards needed on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of them on 3rd or 4th.
  Offense39.4%19th
  Defense42.3%51st
• Explosiveness

  Average EPA on the successful snaps: how big the good plays were.
  Offense+1.1845th
  Defense+1.1569th
• Rushing EPA

  EPA per designed run.
  Offense+0.0427th
  Defense+0.1150th
• Passing EPA

  EPA per pass play.
  Offense+0.039th
  Defense+0.1569th
• Standard downs

  Success rate on downs where either a run or a pass makes sense, like 1st and 10 or 3rd and 2.
  Offense46.8%40th
  Defense47.8%45th
• Passing downs

  Success rate on downs that all but force a pass, like 2nd and 8 or longer, or 3rd and 5 or longer.
  Offense25.9%5th
  Defense31.2%63rd
• Line yards

  Rushing yards per carry credited to the offensive line, weighting the first few yards most.
  Offense2.5114th
  Defense2.9836th
• Stuff rate

  Share of runs stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage.
  Offense21.4%28th
  Defense19.5%47th
• Havoc

  Share of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass breakup.
  Offense2.0%52nd
  Defense1.4%13th

Percentiles among the 128 FBS teams this season, where higher is better for the offense and the defense alike (a defense's numbers are what it allowed). The line in each bar is the FBS median. Garbage time excluded. Source: CollegeFootballData.

Drives vs. expectation, 2014

Every snap has an expected-points value: what a drive from that spot, down and distance is worth on average. A drive over expected beat its starting spot; defense counts what Maryland allowed, so lower is better. The adjusted number fits every team against the opponents it actually played, so it leans toward average early in a season. Ranks are among FBS teams.

Game by game

1. W
   JMU
2. W
   USF
3. L
   WVU
4. W
   SYR
5. W
   IU
6. L
   OSU
7. W
   IOWA
8. L
   WIS
9. W
   PSU
10. L
    MSU
11. W
    MICH
12. L
    RUTG
13. L
    STAN

Bars above the line: better than expected for Maryland.

Players, 2014

1. C.J. BrownQB423 plays · +0.214 pts/play · 47th of 199 QBs
   1.70WAR1.06 to 2.38
2. Brandon RossRB88 plays · +0.106 pts/play · 134th of 350 RBs
   0.17WAR0.10 to 0.25
3. Stefon DiggsWR69 plays · +0.128 pts/play · 104th of 469 WRs
   0.17WAR0.07 to 0.26
4. Brad CraddockPK15 plays · +0.527 pts/play · 23rd of 114 kickers
   0.15WAR0.11 to 0.18
5. Wes BrownRB83 plays · +0.084 pts/play · 176th of 350 RBs
   0.13WAR0.07 to 0.19
6. Nathan RenfroP66 plays · +0.104 pts/play · 26th of 94 punters
   0.13WAR0.01 to 0.24
7. Deon LongWR59 plays · +0.068 pts/play · 271st of 469 WRs
   0.08WAR0.01 to 0.15
8. Caleb RoweQB13 plays · +0.226 pts/play · 188th of 199 QBs
   0.06WAR0.03 to 0.08

By position group, against FBS

Linemen and defenders are valued as units, in points per game against the median FBS unit, because play-by-play doesn't say who was on the field. Players are valued against a replacement-level backup, so the two aren't added together.

Wins above replacement credits each play's expected points to the players involved, adjusted for the opponent, and compares Maryland's players with a typical backup; 53 points make a win. Only snaps while the game was in doubt count, so a starter on a team that blows opponents out plays fewer of them: read value per play beside WAR. The line under each player (or the range on a phone) is the 90% interval. Ranks are among FBS teams and players. How this works

Fourth-down calls vs. the numbers, 2014

Each real fourth down is valued three ways (go for it, kick, punt) from the score, clock and field position before the snap, using league-wide odds rather than Maryland's own. A call that differs gives up the gap to the best option; gaps under one point are close calls, and the 7 clear-cut ones account for 0.12 of the 0.18 expected wins. The model sees the situation, not the injury report, so a call it disagrees with can still be right. Ranks are among FBS teams; 1st gave up the least.

Costliest calls against the numbers

1. vs IOWAQ3 7:56 4th & 1 at MD 44, up 3Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.3 pts
2. at SYRQ3 8:27 4th & 2 at SYR 41, up 18Punted; the numbers favored going for it−2.1 pts
3. vs MSUQ3 3:28 4th & 1 at MD 35, down 9Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.9 pts
4. at MICHQ2 3:32 4th & 1 at MICH 23, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.8 pts
5. at USFQ4 5:16 4th & 4 at USF 4, up 4Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it−1.6 pts
6. at PSUQ3 13:27 4th & 1 at MD 23, down 2Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.5 pts
7. at SYRQ2 9:00 4th & 2 at midfield, up 4Punted; the numbers favored going for it−1.0 pts
8. at MICHQ2 13:39 4th & 1 at MICH 19, down 3Kicked a field goal; the numbers favored going for it (close call)−1.0 pts

Record vs. expectation, 2014

57th of 128 FBS teams at beating the model's pregame expectations

Expected wins adds up Maryland's chance of winning each game as the model saw it at kickoff - a 70% favorite counts 0.7. Based on 12 of 13 games; one has no play-by-play to score.

1. W

   JMU
2. W

   USF
3. L

   WVU
4. W

   SYR
5. W

   IU
6. L

   OSU
7. W

   IOWA
8. L

   WIS
9. W

   PSU
10. L

    MSU
11. W

    MICH
12. L

    RUTG
13. L

    STAN

What moved it, 2014

Every game starts at Maryland's pregame chance; everything after that is the field. The model's own breakdown of each game's final play splits the on-field part by what drove it, and the parts add up exactly. How it works →

• Scoreboard+0.14
• Possession & field position+0.07
• Clock+0.03
• Timeouts+0.02
• Less the pregame edge, counted before kickoff−0.16

Game by game

• JMUW 52-7 vs JMU94% → 100%Before kickoff +44 · On the field +6: Scoreboard +8
• USFW 24-17 at USF75% → 96%Before kickoff +25 · On the field +20: Scoreboard +33, Clock +2
• WVUL 37-40 vs WVU62% → 6%Before kickoff +12 · On the field −57: Scoreboard −52, Clock −3
• SYRW 34-20 at SYR46% → 98%Before kickoff −4 · On the field +53: Scoreboard +53, Clock +3
• OSUL 24-52 vs OSU25% → 0%Before kickoff −25 · On the field −25: Scoreboard −30, Clock −1
• IOWAW 38-31 vs IOWA58% → 97%Before kickoff +8 · On the field +39: Scoreboard +35, Timeouts +2
• WISL 7-52 at WIS27% → 0%Before kickoff −23 · On the field −27: Scoreboard −28, Timeouts −1
• PSUW 20-19 at PSU43% → 94%Before kickoff −7 · On the field +51: Scoreboard +49, Clock +3
• MSUL 15-37 vs MSU22% → 0%Before kickoff −28 · On the field −21: Scoreboard −28, Clock −1
• MICHW 23-16 at MICH41% → 96%Before kickoff −9 · On the field +55: Scoreboard +51, Clock +3
• RUTGL 38-41 vs RUTG75% → 6%Before kickoff +25 · On the field −69: Scoreboard −56, Clock −4
• STANL 21-45 at STAN17% → 0%Before kickoff −33 · On the field −16: Scoreboard −21

Points of win probability, from Maryland's side.

Closest call

MD 20-17 ILL (2021) - Maryland dropped to a 1.0% win probability before pulling it out.