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MSU

Michigan State 37 at Maryland 15

MD
2014 · Week 12 · Nov 15, 2014 · SECU Stadium
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Win probability · MD
modelMD aheadMSU aheadconfidence bandkey playMD scoreMSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:18 · Nathan Renfro punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+55.0+27.50−27.5−55.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Pregame prior−6.5Home team on offense−25.5Score differential−13.0Garbage-time factor−10.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:46: C.J. Brown pass complete to Daniel Adams for 20 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK) — MD win probability +10.7 pts (now 35%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 2:00: Jeremy Langford run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +7.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 1:06: C.J. Brown pass intercepted for a TD RJ Williamson return for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +8.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:06: Jeremy Langford run for 25 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK) — MSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:07: C.J. Brown pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 31 yds for a TD, (C.J. Brown pass to Derrick Hayward for Two-Point Conversion) — MD win probability +2.9 pts (now 4%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MD made the numbers' call on 8 of 10MSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 12
  1. Q1 13:03MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    73.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:42MSU 4th & 9 at MD 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:01MSU 4th & 2 at MD 5, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.7%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−1.4
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:59MD 4th & 7 at MD 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:34MSU 4th & 5 at MD 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.6%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.7%
    80% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:49MD 4th & 5 at MD 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:30MSU 4th & 1 at MD 17, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    70.6%−1.0
    80% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−3.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:42MSU 4th & 13 at MD 18, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.9%−1.0
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    70.9%
    79% to make
    Punt
    67.3%−3.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:51MD 4th & 6 at MSU 37, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    26.5%−0.5
    40% to make
    Punt
    26.4%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:51MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 27, up 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsPunted · 65.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.3%−1.8
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:30MSU 4th & 14 at MD 30, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−1.4
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.6%
    56% to make
    Punt
    63.0%−1.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 4:00MD 4th & 3 at MD 37, down 2
    Close callPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.5%−0.5
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:25MD 4th & 7 at MD 42, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:15MSU 4th & 22 at MD 48, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.3%−3.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:10MD 4th & 13 at MSU 42, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.9%−1.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    23.2%−0.9
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    24.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 5:41MSU 4th & 1 at MSU 22, up 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q3 3:28MD 4th & 1 at MD 35, down 9
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.0%−1.9
    average punt
  18. Q3 1:14MSU 4th & 12 at MSU 40, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−2.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.3%
    average punt
  19. Q3 0:02MD 4th & 5 at MD 29, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.1%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 13:51MSU 4th & 25 at MSU 19, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−2.8
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.0%
    average punt
  21. Q4 12:18MD 4th & 19 at MD 39, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−2.1
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  22. Q4 1:28MD 4th & 7 at MSU 43, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.6%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.6%−<0.1
    28% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MD made the numbers' call on 1 of 2MSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q2 8:46MD Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 2:00MSU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 1:06MSU Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:06MSU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 4:07MD Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 3:15MSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MSUDrive 1PUNT
10 plays · 29 yds · 3:0978% → 77%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+16
21.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 16 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
21.9%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 41Similar
Q1 13:48
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
22.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+7
22.2%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 7 yds to the MchSt 48Similar
Q1 13:03
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+3
22.4%
Connor Cook run for 3 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
22.5%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd to the Mary 48Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
22.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Jamal LylesSimilar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
22.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q1 11:42
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
23.1%
Mike Sadler punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:4823% → 23%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
23.2%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Jacquille VeiiSimilar
Q1 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
23.3%
Wes Brown run for 3 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+15
23.4%
C.J. Brown pass intercepted Kurtis Drummond return for 15 yds to the Mary 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 3FG
7 plays · 23 yds · 3:4477% → 75%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
23.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the Mary 24Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+5
23.4%
Connor Cook run for 5 yds to the Mary 19Similar
Q1 9:29
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+6
23.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 6 yds to the Mary 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
23.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the Mary 10Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+4
24.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the Mary 6Similar
Q1 7:38
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+1
24.4%
Jeremy Langford run for 1 yd to the Mary 5Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 2
OPP 5
+22
24.6%
Michael Geiger 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4826% → 25%
Q1 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
25.5%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q1 6:31
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+3
25.3%
Wes Brown run for 3 yds to the Mary 45Similar
Q1 6:05
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
25.4%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q1 5:59
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
24.9%
Nathan Renfro punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 5FG
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:1675% → 75%
Q1 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
25.5%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the MchSt 13Similar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 8
OWN 13
0
25.8%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Keith MumpherySimilar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 8
OWN 13
+50
26.1%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 50 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
25.3%
Delton Williams run for 2 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+5
25.2%
Keith Mumphery run for 5 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q1 3:10
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+8
25.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 8 yds to the Mary 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
25.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 5 yds to the Mary 17Similar
Q1 2:40
2ND & 5
OPP 17
0
25.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Keith MumpherySimilar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 5
OPP 17
0
25.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Macgarrett Kings Jr.Similar
Q1 2:34
4TH & 5
OPP 17
+34
24.6%
Michael Geiger 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4025% → 25%
Q1 2:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.3%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Marcus LeakSimilar
Q1 1:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.4%
Jacquille Veii run for 1 yd to the Mary 26Similar
Q1 1:31
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
25.1%
C.J. Brown run for 4 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q1 0:49
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
25.2%
Nathan Renfro punt for 29 yds, downed at the MchSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 7FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 4:5875% → 75%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
24.6%
Jeremy Langford run for a loss of 1 yard to the MchSt 40Similar
Q1 0:14
2ND & 11
OWN 40
0
25.0%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Josiah PriceSimilar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 11
OWN 40
+20
25.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 20 yds to the Mary 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+14
24.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Aaron Burbridge for 14 yds to the Mary 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
24.5%
Macgarrett Kings Jr. run for 3 yds to the Mary 23Similar
Q2 13:47
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+5
24.0%
Nick Hill run for 5 yds to the Mary 18Similar
Q2 13:04
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+1
24.3%
Nick Hill run for 1 yd to the Mary 17Similar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+2
25.1%
Nick Hill run for 2 yds to the Mary 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
24.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, False Start (Josiah Price) to the Mary 20Similar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
24.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+2
24.3%
Connor Cook run for 2 yds to the Mary 18Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 13
OPP 18
0
24.7%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Nick HillSimilar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 13
OPP 18
+35
24.6%
Michael Geiger 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8TD
7 plays · 41 yds · 1:4525% → 35%
Q2 10:31
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
25.2%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the MchSt 39Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 8
OPP 39
-3
25.1%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Wes Brown for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 42Similar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 11
OPP 42
+5
24.4%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Shilique Calhoun) to the MchSt 37Similar
Q2 9:01
3RD & 6
OPP 37
0
25.1%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q2 8:51
4TH & 6
OPP 37
+17
24.0%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 17 yds to the MchSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:46
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
34.7%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Daniel Adams for 20 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 9FUMBLE
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4070% → 69%
Q2 8:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
30.4%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the MchSt 23Similar
Q2 7:54
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+4
29.6%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 7:31
3RD & 1
OWN 27
0
30.0%
Jeremy Langford run for no gain to the MchSt 27Similar
Q2 6:51
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
31.3%
Mike Sadler punt for 35 yds , William Likely returns for no gain to the Mary 38 William Likely fumbled, recovered by MchSt Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 10MISSED FG
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0572% → 68%
Q2 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
28.5%
Connor Cook pass complete to Andrew Gleichert for 12 yds to the Mary 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
27.9%
Aaron Burbridge run for 1 yd to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 5:41
2ND & 9
OPP 25
-5
28.3%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (Connor Cook) to the Mary 30Similar
Q2 5:36
3RD & 14
OPP 30
0
30.3%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Aaron BurbridgeSimilar
Q2 5:30
4TH & 14
OPP 30
+47
31.8%
Michael Geiger 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 1:3033% → 32%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
32.6%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 25Similar
Q2 5:21
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
32.3%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q2 5:16
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+11
32.3%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Amba Etta-Tawo for 11 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 4:44
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+1
33.8%
C.J. Brown run for 1 yd to the Mary 37Similar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
31.8%
Nathan Renfro punt for 38 yds, downed at the MchSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 12TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4669% → 79%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
31.5%
Delton Williams run for 6 yds to the MchSt 31Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+4
30.8%
Delton Williams run for 4 yds to the MchSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
31.2%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to R.J. SheltonSimilar
Q2 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+62
31.6%
Connor Cook pass complete to Keith Mumphery for 62 yds to the Mary 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
28.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Mary 8Similar
Q2 2:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
21.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13INT
12 plays · 28 yds · 1:3224% → 24%
Q2 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-4
23.5%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Wes Brown for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 14Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 14
OWN 14
+2
23.4%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the Mary 16Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 12
OWN 16
+14
23.5%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Wes Brown for 14 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
24.9%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
24.3%
C.J. Brown run for 6 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+5
24.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (Shilique Calhoun) to the Mary 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
25.2%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Daniel AdamsSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
24.9%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q2 0:11
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+5
24.3%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Wes Brown for 5 yds to the Mary 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:2625% → 23%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
24.5%
Wes Brown run for no gain to the Mary 39Similar
Q3 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-16
24.4%
C.J. Brown pass complete to C.J. Brown for a loss of 11 yards to the Mary 28 MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Forward Pass (C.J. Brown) to the Mary 23Similar
Q3 13:54
3RD & 26
OWN 23
+19
22.6%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Daniel Adams for 19 yds to the Mary 42Similar
Q3 13:25
4TH & 7
OWN 42
0
23.3%
Nathan Renfro punt for 38 yds, downed at the MchSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 4:0677% → 77%
Q3 13:21
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
22.8%
Jeremy Langford run for 10 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:47
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
22.4%
Connor Cook pass complete to Tony Lippett for 13 yds to the MchSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
21.4%
Jeremy Langford run for 11 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:41
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+10
21.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Josiah Price for 10 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
21.3%
Jeremy Langford run for 2 yds to the Mary 34Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 34
-4
20.9%
Connor Cook sacked by Andre Monroe for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 38Similar
Q3 9:51
3RD & 12
OPP 38
-10
21.6%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (Jack Allen) to the Mary 48Similar
Q3 9:24
3RD & 22
OPP 48
0
22.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q3 9:15
4TH & 22
OPP 48
0
22.6%
Mike Sadler punt for 36 yds, downed at the Mary 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 46 yds · 1:5122% → 21%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
22.4%
Wes Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 11Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 11
OWN 11
+50
22.4%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 50 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
25.0%
C.J. Brown pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 39
-3
24.9%
Wes Brown run for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 42Similar
Q3 7:19
3RD & 13
OPP 42
0
23.4%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Jacquille VeiiSimilar
Q3 7:10
4TH & 13
OPP 42
0
21.4%
Nathan Renfro punt for 29 yds, downed at the MchSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2078% → 77%
Q3 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
22.2%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the MchSt 17Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+3
22.3%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jeremy Langford for 3 yds to the MchSt 20Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+2
23.1%
Connor Cook run for 2 yds to the MchSt 22Similar
Q3 5:41
4TH & 1
OWN 22
0
23.5%
Mike Sadler punt for 66 yds, downed at the Mary 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:0322% → 22%
Q3 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
22.1%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Kenneth Goins Jr. for 9 yds to the Mary 22Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 1
OWN 22
-1
22.5%
Wes Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 21Similar
Q3 4:51
3RD & 2
OWN 21
+5
21.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Mary 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
22.3%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
21.9%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+9
20.8%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 9 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q3 3:28
4TH & 1
OWN 35
0
21.5%
Nathan Renfro punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 10 yds · 2:0879% → 80%
Q3 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
20.9%
Delton Williams run for 12 yds to the MchSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
19.0%
Delton Williams run for 1 yd to the MchSt 43Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-3
18.4%
Connor Cook sacked by David Shaw for a loss of 3 yards to the MchSt 40Similar
Q3 1:25
3RD & 12
OWN 40
0
19.1%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Andrew GleichertSimilar
Q3 1:14
4TH & 12
OWN 40
+70
20.2%
Mike Sadler punt for 60 yds for a touchback MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 20INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+22
11.5%
C.J. Brown pass intercepted for a TD RJ Williamson return for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:3512% → 11%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
11.6%
Brandon Ross run for 5 yds to the Mary 29Similar
Q3 0:17
2ND & 5
OWN 29
0
11.7%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q3 0:13
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
11.2%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Derrick HaywardSimilar
Q3 0:02
4TH & 5
OWN 29
+14
11.0%
Nathan Renfro punt for 46 yds , Macgarrett Kings Jr. returns for 14 yds to the MchSt 43 MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Personal Foul (Arjen Colquhoun) to the MchSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · -5 yds · 1:0993% → 92%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
7.5%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the MchSt 27Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 27
0
7.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q4 14:31
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+7
7.9%
Connor Cook pass complete to Jamal Lyles for 7 yds to the MchSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
7.5%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 10
OWN 34
-15
7.5%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Jamal Lyles) to the MchSt 19Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 25
OWN 19
0
7.6%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to AJ TroupSimilar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 25
OWN 19
0
7.9%
Connor Cook pass incomplete to Tony LippettSimilar
Q4 13:51
4TH & 25
OWN 19
0
7.9%
Mike Sadler punt for 33 yds, fair catch by William Likely at the Mary 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:2812% → 9%
Q4 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
11.5%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Derrick HaywardSimilar
Q4 13:41
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
11.4%
Wes Brown run for no gain to the Mary 48Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 10
OWN 48
-4
10.8%
C.J. Brown sacked by Riley Bullough for a loss of 4 yards to the Mary 44Similar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 14
OWN 44
-5
9.9%
MARYLAND Penalty, Illegal Procedure (-5 Yards) to the Mary 39Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 19
OWN 39
0
9.0%
Nathan Renfro punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Macgarrett Kings Jr. at the MchSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 24TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 4:4894% → 99%
Q4 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
6.4%
Jeremy Langford run for 9 yds to the MchSt 32Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+7
6.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 7 yds to the MchSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
5.5%
Jeremy Langford run for 16 yds to the Mary 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
5.1%
Jeremy Langford run for 4 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+3
5.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 3 yds to the Mary 38Similar
Q4 8:53
3RD & 3
OPP 38
-5
4.9%
MICHIGAN ST Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Mary 43Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+13
4.7%
Connor Cook pass complete to Macgarrett Kings Jr. for 13 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
4.6%
Jeremy Langford run for 5 yds to the Mary 25Similar
Q4 7:06
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+25
1.0%
Jeremy Langford run for 25 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 25TD
11 plays · 77 yds · 2:541% → 4%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+7
1.2%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 7 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q4 6:28
2ND & 3
OWN 30
+8
1.1%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 8 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-6
1.1%
C.J. Brown sacked by Marcus Rush for a loss of 6 yards to the Mary 32Similar
Q4 5:44
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+27
1.0%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 27 yds to the MchSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+11
1.2%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 11 yds to the MchSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
1.3%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 4 yds to the MchSt 26Similar
Q4 4:36
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-5
1.3%
MARYLAND Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the MchSt 31Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 11
OPP 31
0
1.1%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+31
4.1%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 31 yds for a TD, (C.J. Brown pass to Derrick Hayward for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 26TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 0:4598% → 100%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
50
+12
2.4%
Nick Hill run for 12 yds to the Mary 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
2.1%
Nick Hill run for 5 yds to the Mary 33Similar
Q4 3:15
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+33
0.4%
Nick Hill run for 33 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 27DOWNS
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:311% → 1%
Q4 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
0.9%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+13
0.9%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Juwann Winfree for 13 yds to the MchSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
1.0%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Jacquille Veii for 9 yds to the MchSt 37Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 1
OPP 37
-6
1.0%
C.J. Brown sacked by Marcus Rush for a loss of 6 yards to the MchSt 43Similar
Q4 1:33
3RD & 7
OPP 43
0
0.8%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Amba Etta-TawoSimilar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 7
OPP 43
0
0.8%
C.J. Brown pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MSUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:25100% → 100%
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
0.3%
Delton Williams run for 9 yds to the Mary 48Similar
Q4 0:44
2ND & 1
OPP 48
-2
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 8:46
C.J. Brown pass complete to Daniel Adams for 20 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)
+10.7
TD · Q3 1:06
C.J. Brown pass intercepted for a TD RJ Williamson return for 22 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
-8.7
TD · Q2 2:00
Jeremy Langford run for 8 yds for a TD, (Michael Geiger KICK)
-7.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com