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MD

Maryland 24 at South Florida 17

USF
2014 · Week 2 · Sep 6, 2014 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadMD aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreMD score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 14:52 · Nathan Renfro punt for 64 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+37.0+18.50−18.5−37.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 103Pregame prior−13.9Home team on offense+1.4Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4Score differential+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:27: Steven Bench 15 Yd Run (Marvin Kloss Kick) — USF win probability +6.8 pts (now 36%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Marvin Kloss 35 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +6.4 pts (now 45%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:25: Avery Thompson 0 Yd Punt Return (Brad Craddock Kick) — MD win probability +30.3 pts (now 69%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:16: Brad Craddock 23 yd FG GOOD — MD win probability +6.8 pts (now 87%) (top driver: MD has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 2:47: Steven Bench pass complete to Sean Price for 5 yds to the SFla 27 — USF win probability +10.9 pts (now 19%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 10 of 12MD made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00USF 4th & 6 at USF 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:35USF 4th & 22 at USF 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:30USF 4th & 17 at USF 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:56USF 4th & 5 at USF 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:27MD 4th & 5 at MD 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.8%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:54USF 4th & 6 at USF 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:54USF 4th & 12 at MD 15, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.1 ptsWent for it · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.7%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%
    83% to make
    Punt
    32.8%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:20MD 4th & 3 at MD 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 62.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:00USF 4th & 9 at MD 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.3%
    80% to make
    Punt
    35.9%−6.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:52MD 4th & 4 at MD 36, down 3
    Close callPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.1%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 9:27USF 4th & 4 at MD 36, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.0%−1.8
    42% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−2.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:53USF 4th & 6 at USF 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00MD 4th & 23 at MD 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−5.4
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:25USF 4th & 10 at USF 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−3.0
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:18USF 4th & 29 at USF 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.8%−6.5
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:16MD 4th & 4 at USF 4, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 76.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.6%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.0%−1.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    56.9%−17.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:06USF 4th & 11 at USF 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 14.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.7%
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.9%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2MD made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:02MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:04USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:38MD Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:27USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 12:25MD Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
24.6%
Mike White pass complete to Sean Price for 12 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
24.6%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
24.6%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
24.6%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
24.6%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 39 yds, fair catch by William Likely at the Mary 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 2INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0075% → 75%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
25.5%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Kenneth Goins Jr. for 17 yds to the Mary 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
25.5%
Kenneth Goins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+8
25.4%
Brandon Ross run for 8 yds to the Mary 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-7
25.4%
Brandon Ross run for 3 yds to the SOUFLA 48 MARYLAND Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Mary 42Similar
Q1 13:00
1ST & 17
OWN 42
0
25.5%
C.J. Brown pass intercepted Johnny Ward return for no gain to the SFla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -12 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.3%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Mike McFarlandSimilar
Q1 11:35
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-4
26.3%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 16Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 14
OWN 16
-8
26.1%
BENCH, Steven pass complete to MCFARLAND, Mike for 16 yards to the USF32 (Nixon), PENALTY USF pass interference 8 yards to the USF8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:35
3RD & 22
OWN 8
0
26.1%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q1 11:35
4TH & 22
OWN 8
0
26.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 33 yds, fair catch by William Likely at the SFla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 4FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
26.5%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 2 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+3
26.5%
Brandon Ross run for 3 yds to the SFla 36 Brandon Ross fumbled, forced by Jamie Byrd, recovered by SFla Todd ChandlerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 9:30
4TH & 17
OWN 29
+46
27.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 49 yds , William Likely returns for 46 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-3
27.5%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 13
OWN 33
-4
27.3%
Steven Bench sacked by Yannick Ngakoue for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 29Similar
Q1 9:30
3RD & 17
OWN 29
0
27.1%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 6TD
3 plays · 32 yds · 0:4773% → 75%
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
27.2%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 10 yds to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
27.2%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 12 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
25.1%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Marcus Leak for 10 yds for a TD, (Brad Craddock KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.0%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
26.0%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Mike McFarlandSimilar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+5
25.7%
BENCH, Steven pass incomplete to WELCH, Deonte, PENALTY UMD pass interference 5 yards to the USF25, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY. for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
26.0%
Marlon Mack run for 15 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
26.4%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 40Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
26.2%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Deonte WelchSimilar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+5
26.0%
Steven Bench pass complete to Mike McFarland for 5 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 6:56
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
26.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 55 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 8FUMBLE RETURN TD
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:1374% → 70%
Q1 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
26.3%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q1 4:04
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-21
29.8%
Auggie Sanchez 21 Yd Fumble Return (Marvin Kloss Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 9TD
4 plays · 51 yds · 1:1871% → 74%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
28.9%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 6 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 3:56
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+1
28.7%
Brandon Ross run for 1 yd to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 2:38
3RD & 3
OPP 44
+44
25.6%
Marcus Leak 44 Yd pass from C.J. Brown (Brad Craddock Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10TD
13 plays · 76 yds · 6:0627% → 36%
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
26.5%
Darius Tice run for no gain to the SFla 24Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 10
OWN 24
-5
26.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 19Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 15
OWN 19
+1
26.4%
Darius Tice run for 1 yd to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 2:33
3RD & 14
OWN 20
+16
26.0%
Steven Bench pass complete to Rodney Adams for 16 yds to the SFla 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
26.8%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
27.2%
Marlon Mack run for 8 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
27.8%
Marlon Mack run for 4 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+27
28.0%
Steven Bench pass complete to Deonte Welch for 27 yds to the Mary 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
28.9%
Rodney Adams run for 11 yds to the Mary 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
28.9%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the Mary 12Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-3
28.9%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 3 yards to the Mary 15Similar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 12
OPP 15
+15
35.7%
Steven Bench 15 Yd Run (Marvin Kloss Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
33.1%
Brandon Ross run for 5 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q2 11:27
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
32.6%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Marcus LeakSimilar
Q2 11:27
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
33.3%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q2 11:27
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
34.2%
Nathan Renfro punt for 34 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
35.2%
Steven Bench run for 2 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+2
35.4%
Marlon Mack run for 2 yds to the SFla 40Similar
Q2 10:54
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
34.8%
Steven Bench pass complete to Deonte Welch for no gain to the SFla 40Similar
Q2 10:54
4TH & 6
OWN 40
-2
34.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 44 yds , William Likely returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 13FUMBLE
5 plays · 30 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
34.4%
C.J. Brown run for 11 yds to the Mary 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
34.2%
C.J. Brown sacked by Reshard Cliett for a loss of 7 yards to the Mary 18 C.J. Brown fumbled, recovered by Mary , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 8:37
2ND & 17
OWN 18
0
34.6%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q2 8:37
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+18
35.3%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Marcus Leak for 18 yds to the Mary 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
33.6%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Brandon Ross for 8 yds Brandon Ross fumbled, forced by Derrick Calloway, recovered by SFla Johnny WardSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
39.3%
Steven Bench pass complete to Mike McFarland for 15 yds to the Mary 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-1
39.9%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 30Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 11
OPP 30
+3
39.7%
Steven Bench pass complete to Deonte Welch for 3 yds to the Mary 27Similar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+14
38.9%
Steven Bench pass complete to Mike McFarland for 14 yds to the Mary 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
39.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for no gain to the Mary 13Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
39.9%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Deonte WelchSimilar
Q2 6:54
3RD & 10
OPP 13
-2
38.9%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mary 15Similar
Q2 6:54
4TH & 12
OPP 15
-17
36.5%
Team run for a loss of 17 yards to the Mary 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
35.1%
Wes Brown run for 3 yds to the Mary 35Similar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 7
OWN 35
0
34.8%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+4
35.8%
C.J. Brown run for 4 yds to the Mary 39Similar
Q2 3:20
4TH & 3
OWN 39
0
36.1%
Nathan Renfro punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16FG
17 plays · 57 yds · 2:0540% → 45%
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
39.6%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Marlon MackSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+9
39.3%
Marlon Mack run for 9 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+19
40.0%
Marlon Mack run for 19 yds to the Mary 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
42.5%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Mike McFarlandSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
42.3%
Steven Bench run for 5 yds to the Mary 41Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+7
41.9%
Steven Bench pass complete to Marlon Mack for 7 yds to the Mary 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
43.1%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Rodney AdamsSimilar
Q2 2:05
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+3
43.1%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 3 yds to the Mary 31Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 7
OPP 31
+13
42.6%
Steven Bench pass complete to Deonte Welch for 13 yds to the Mary 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
44.1%
Steven Bench pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-5
44.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Mary 23Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 15
OPP 23
0
42.7%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Deonte WelchSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 15
OPP 23
+1
40.9%
D'Ernest Johnson run for 1 yd to the Mary 22Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 14
OPP 22
+5
38.7%
MARYLAND Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Mary 17Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 17
+35
45.1%
Marvin Kloss 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0056% → 55%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
44.0%
Brandon Ross run for 5 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+9
43.9%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 9 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
43.6%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the Mary 32Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+5
43.3%
Wes Brown run for 5 yds to the Mary 37Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 3
OWN 37
-1
43.0%
C.J. Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Mary 36Similar
Q3 14:52
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
45.0%
Nathan Renfro punt for 64 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18MISSED FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:4547% → 51%
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
47.0%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Deonte WelchSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
46.7%
Marlon Mack run for 14 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
47.4%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
48.6%
Steven Bench pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+21
46.8%
Steven Bench pass complete to Mike McFarland for 21 yds to the Mary 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
50.5%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Sean PriceSimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
50.3%
Darius Tice run for 6 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q3 12:12
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
49.9%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Deonte Welch, broken up by Alvin Hill SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 9:27
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+54
51.1%
Marvin Kloss 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 19INT
12 plays · 46 yds · 0:0053% → 56%
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
46.7%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Deon LongSimilar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
47.3%
Wes Brown run for 7 yds to the Mary 43Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+8
45.1%
Wes Brown run for 8 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
44.0%
Wes Brown run for 4 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-5
44.1%
C.J. Brown sacked by Nigel Harris for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 11
50
+13
46.3%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 13 yds to the SFla 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
44.0%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Deon Long for 7 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 3
OPP 30
0
42.4%
Albert Reid run for no gain to the SFla 30Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+11
43.9%
Wes Brown run for 11 yds to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:27
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
42.4%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Wes BrownSimilar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+1
42.8%
Wes Brown run for 1 yd to the SFla 18Similar
Q3 9:27
3RD & 9
OPP 18
0
44.5%
C.J. Brown pass intercepted Auggie Sanchez return for no gain to the SFla 18 MARYLAND Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
52.7%
Marlon Mack run for 3 yds to the SFla 14Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 7
OWN 14
0
52.6%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Deonte Welch, broken up by William LikelySimilar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 7
OWN 14
+26
50.8%
Steven Bench pass complete to Rodney Adams for 26 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
55.4%
Darius Tice run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 39Similar
Q3 4:53
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+3
53.9%
Steven Bench pass complete to Darius Tice for 3 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 4:53
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+7
52.9%
Steven Bench pass complete to Rodney Adams for 7 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 1
OWN 49
-5
53.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 44Similar
Q3 4:53
4TH & 6
OWN 44
+5
52.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 45 yds , William Likely returns for 5 yds to the Mary 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 1:1845% → 40%
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+5
55.5%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 5 yds to the Mary 21Similar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 5
OWN 21
+9
55.3%
Albert Reid run for 9 yds to the Mary 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
54.8%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Stefon DiggsSimilar
Q3 1:18
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
55.5%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 6 yds to the Mary 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+7
55.2%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 7 yds to the Mary 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
53.1%
C.J. Brown sacked by Demetrius Hill for a loss of 10 yards to the Mary 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 20
OWN 33
0
56.9%
C.J. Brown pass incomplete to Albert ReidSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 33
-15
58.7%
MARYLAND Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Mary 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 35
OWN 18
+12
58.9%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Albert Reid for 12 yds to the Mary 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 23
OWN 30
+22
59.8%
Nathan Renfro punt for 55 yds , Hassan Childs returns for 22 yds to the SFla 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22PUNT TD
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:5164% → 31%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
63.8%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to N/ASimilar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
63.2%
Marlon Mack run for no gain to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
61.2%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Deonte WelchSimilar
Q4 12:25
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
31.0%
Avery Thompson 0 Yd Punt Return (Brad Craddock Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -19 yds · 0:0033% → 30%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
33.4%
Marlon Mack run for 1 yd to the SFla 23Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 9
OWN 23
-10
33.2%
BENCH, Steven pass complete to ADAMS, Rodney for 17 yards to the USF40 (Hill), PENALTY USF holding 10 yards to the USF13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 19
OWN 13
-9
33.0%
Steven Bench sacked by Andre Monroe for a loss of 9 yards to the SFla 4Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 28
OWN 4
-1
30.9%
Marlon Mack run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 3Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 29
OWN 3
+12
30.0%
Mattias Ciabatti punt for 47 yds , William Likely returns for 12 yds to the SFla 38 William Likely fumbled, forced by Nigel Harris, recovered by Mary Anthony NixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 24FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 4:1776% → 87%
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
24.5%
Wes Brown run for 9 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+10
22.9%
Wes Brown run for 10 yds to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
22.9%
C.J. Brown run for 1 yd to the SFla 18Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+2
22.9%
Wes Brown run for 2 yds to the SFla 16Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 7
OPP 16
+15
24.5%
C.J. Brown pass complete to Stefon Diggs for 15 yds to the SFla 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.0%
Wes Brown run for no gain to the SFla 1Similar
Q4 9:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
22.9%
Wes Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 2Similar
Q4 6:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
20.0%
C.J. Brown run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 4 C.J. Brown fumbled, recovered by Mary Wes BrownSimilar
Q4 5:16
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+23
13.3%
Brad Craddock 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q4 5:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
20.6%
Steven Bench pass intercepted Alvin Hill return for no gain to the SFla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 26FUMBLE
6 plays · 19 yds · 2:1389% → 92%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
11.2%
Albert Reid run for 2 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 8
OPP 39
+5
11.3%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+5
11.2%
C.J. Brown run for 5 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
10.9%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+2
7.9%
Albert Reid run for 2 yds to the SFla 22 Albert Reid fumbled, forced by Nigel Harris, recovered by SFla Nigel HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:4119% → 14%
Q4 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
18.8%
Steven Bench pass complete to Sean Price for 5 yds to the SFla 27Similar
Q4 2:47
2ND & 5
OWN 27
-6
19.6%
BENCH, Steven pass incomplete, PENALTY USF intentional grounding 6 yards to the USF21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:47
3RD & 11
OWN 21
0
17.2%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Jordan DuvalSimilar
Q4 2:06
4TH & 11
OWN 21
0
14.0%
Steven Bench pass incomplete to Sean Price, broken up by Alex TwineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MDDrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0693% → 96%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+8
7.1%
Albert Reid run for 8 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 2
OPP 13
+3
4.2%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
-3
4.2%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 13Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
-2
4.4%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:25
Avery Thompson 0 Yd Punt Return (Brad Craddock Kick)
-30.3
KEY PLAY · Q4 2:47
Steven Bench pass complete to Sean Price for 5 yds to the SFla 27
+10.9
TD · Q2 11:27
Steven Bench 15 Yd Run (Marvin Kloss Kick)
+6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com